Central Bank of Egypt

Transcription

1 Central Bank of Egypt External Position of the Egyptian Economy FY 2009/2010 Quarterly Report Volume No. (30)

2 Central Bank of Egypt External Position Preface The External Position of the Egyptian Economy Report is one of a series released by the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) on a quarterly basis. It aims to make available to a broad readership of specialists and non-specialists a reasonable range of information on the performance of the country's external sector during the reporting period. The series reviews the key developments in the main components of Egypt's Balance of Payments (BOP). It also sheds light on the country's International Investment Position (IIP), external debt, external liquidity and recent exchange rate developments. The report at hand, the thirtieth in this series, covers the FY 2009/10. The Central Bank of Egypt posts this series along with its other publications on its website Hard copies can be obtained from the Research, Development and Publishing Sector, 8 th floor, 54 El Gomhouria street, Cairo.

3 Central Bank of Egypt External Position Table of Contents Section I: Overview Balance of Payments Page Section II: BOP Performance. 1 1-Current Account 1 2-Capital and Financial Account 4 External Liquidity A -Net International Reserves (NIR) 7 B -Net Foreign Assets of Banks (NFA) 7 Section III: External Debt A -Breakdown by Type 9 B- Breakdown by Currency 10 C - Breakdown by Creditor 10 D - Breakdown by Debtor 10 E -External Debt Indicators 11 Section IV: Exchange Rate Developments 13 Statistical Section: Appendix I 1-Balance of Payments International Investment Position (IIP) 19 3-NIR & NFA of Banking System 20 4-External Debt by Type 21 5-External Debt Indicators 22 6-External Debt by Debtor 23 7-Exchange Rates 24 Appendix II I- External Debt: Outstanding Stock II- Medium-and Long-Term External Debt Service III- Exchange Rates of the Currencies of External Debt versus US Dollar

4 Central Bank of Egypt External Position E gypt's BOP performed fairly well during FY 2009/10 switching to an overall surplus of US$ 3.36 billion, from an overall deficit of US$ 3.38 billion during the preceding FY. In this context, the current account deficit slightly narrowed to US$ 4.3 billion during the year under review from US$ 4.4 billion, while the capital and financial account net inflows surged to US$ 8.3 billion from US$ 2.3 billion a year earlier. The slight decline in the current account deficit was attributed mainly to the almost unchanged trade deficit of US$ 25.1 billion, (against US$ 25.2 billion) and the increase in net unrequited transfers by 26.9% to US$ 10.5 billion, whereas the services balance declined by 17.3% to US$ 10.3 billion. The surge in the capital and financial account's net inflows owes mainly to inflows of US$ 7.9 billion in net portfolio investment in Egypt compared with net outflows of US$ 9.2 billion a year earlier. Foreign direct investment in Egypt (FDI) achieved a net inflow of US$ 6.8 billion whereas net foreign assets and liabilities posted an outflow of US$ 7.1 billion. International Investment Position (IIP)* registered net liabilities of US$ 27.0 billion at end of Dec. 2008, up from US$ 8.3 billion in Dec and from US$ 10.8 billion in Dec It worth mentioning that in April 2009, Egypt ranked (for the third time) top reformer of all MENA countries by the International Finance Corporation (IFC) - World Bank. Net international reserves (NIR) increased by US$ 3.9 billion during FY 2009/10, to reach US$ 35.2 billion at end of June 2010, covering 8.6 months of merchandise imports. The pickup was ascribed to the rise in foreign currencies by US$ 2.3 billion worth, and the augmentation of Egypt's SDR allocations by US$ 1.1 Overview billion worth, along with the increase in the value of gold by the equivalent of US$ 0.5 billion after its revaluation at the end of June 2010 likewise the case at the end of every fiscal year. During the report printing period, NIR increased to US$ 35.5 billion at end of September Banks' net foreign assets amounted to US$ 16.2 billion at end of June 2010, up by US$ 1.5 billion over end of June 2009 level. Foreign currency deposits with banks decreased by 7.0 percent, to reach US$ 27.8 billion at end of June As a percentage of total deposits, they decreased from 23.4 percent in June 2009 to 20.2 percent at end of June Egypt's total outstanding external debt amounted US$ 33.7 billion at end of June 2010, against US$ 31.5 billion at end of June 2009, up by US$ 2.2 billion. It was mainly attributed to an increase of US$ 3.4 billion in net disbursements of loans and facilities coupled with a decrease of US$ 1.2 billion due to a depreciation in the majority of currencies' exchange rates vis-à-vis the US dollar. The external debt position continued to have a favorable profile, with 91.2 percent representing medium- and long- term debt. The public sector is the major obligor, carrying 93.2 percent of total external debt. External debt/gdp ratio dropped to 15.9 percent at end of June 2010, compared with 16.9 percent in the previous year. The weighted average rate of the interbank foreign exchange market reached pt per US dollar at end of June 2010, compared with pt at end of June Accordingly, the Egyptian pound depreciated by around 1.73 percent during FY 2009/2010. * IIP statement was first introduced in Volume 20 of the External Position Report, to be updated annually at end of December of each year within the SDDS requirements.

5 Section I Balance of Payments

6 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 1 E gypt's BOP overall balance for FY 2009/10 switched to a surplus of US$ 3.36 billion (1.5 percent of GDP) from an overall deficit of US$ 3.38 billion (1.8 percent of GDP) during the previous FY. The current account deficit slightly narrowed to US$ 4.3 billion, from US$ 4.4 billion in FY 2008/09, and the net inflows of the capital and financial account picked up to US$ 8.3 billion, from US$ 2.3 billion US$ bn BOP Ove rall Balance The above chart shows developments in the overall balance on quarterly basis throughout the FY 2008/09 & 2009/ Current Account 0.6 The current account deficit slightly contracted by 2.4 percent, to US$ 4.3 billion (2.0 percent of GDP from 2.3 percent of GDP) driven by an almost unchanged trade deficit of US$ 25.1 billion (11.5 percent of GDP from 13.3 percent of GDP a year earlier), and an increase in net unrequited transfers from US$ 8.2 billion to US$ 10.5 billion (4.8 percent of GDP). Meanwhile, the services balance dropped by 17.3% BOP Performance During FY 2009/ Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2008/ / to US$ 10.3 billion (4.7 percent of GDP). US$ bn Current Account : Trade Balance Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2008/ / The trade deficit narrowed slightly by US$ 53.3 million or 0.2 percent, to stand at US$ 25.1 billion during FY 2009/10 from US$ 25.2 billion a year earlier. Merchandise exports (FOB) fell by 5.1% to US$ 23.9 billion. That was attributed to a drop in oil exports by 6.8% (43.0% of total exports) and in non-oil exports by 3.9% (57.0 % of the total). Likewise Merchandise imports (CIF) fell by 2.7% to US$ 49.0 billion, due to a contraction in oil imports by 26.6% (10.5% of total imports) and a rise in non-oil imports by 1.2% (89.5% of the total). US$bn petroleum & non petroleum Exports & Imports fiscal year 2008/ /2010 Petroleum exports Petroleum imports Non petroleum exports Non petroleum imports

7 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 2 The following charts illustrate the commodity distribution of exports by degree of processing and of imports by degree of use during the reporting year. Proceeds of Merchandise Exports Fiscal Year 2009/2010 Undistributed Exports 1.1% Finished Goods 42.2% Semi-finished Goods 6.8% Fuel, Mineral oils & Products 44.6% Raw Materials 5.3% The following chart shows developments in the services balance throughout FY 2008/09 and FY 2009/10 on quarterly basis. US$ bn Service Balance Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2008/ /2010 Serv ices Receipts Serv ices Balance Serv ices Pay ments Payments for Merchandise Imports Fiscal Year 2009/2010 Undistributed Imports 2.2% Consumer Goods 25.0% Investment Goods 20.5% Fuel, Mineral oils & Products 7.8% Intermediate Goods 33.2% Raw Materials 11.3% The export import ratio decreased to 48.7 percent during Fiscal Year 2009/10, compared with 50.3 percent a year earlier. 1.2: Services Balance and transfers The services balance surplus declined to US$ 10.3 billion (41.2 percent of trade deficit) from US$ 12.5 billion during the previous year. Such decline stemmed from the increase in services payments by 17.0 percent and the decrease in services receipts by 1.0 percent. Services receipts witnessed a slight decline of US$ 23.6 billion, driven by a fall in most items: Investment income receded by 57.2 percent, to US$ million, under weak interest on deposits abroad, and portfolio investment income; Transportation receipts decreased by 3.5 percent to US$ 7.2 billion, on the back of a 4.3 percent drop in Suez Canal dues, and lower receipts of Egyptian airlines companies, and pipeline services provided by SUMED. Government receipts declined by 13.8 percent, to register US$ million, due to a drawback in the expenses of foreign embassies in Egypt. On the other hand, Tourism revenues witnessed an increase of 10.5 percent to US$ 11.6 billion (against US$ 10.5 billion), as a result of the pick up in the number of tourists nights by 10.5 percent, standing at million nights. Other services receipts rose as well by 1.8 percent to US$ 3.7 billion, due to higher invisible receipts of EGPC.

8 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 3 US$ bn Developments in Main Items of Service Receipts Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2008/ /2010 Trav el Suez Canal Services payments increased by 17.0 percent, to reach US$ 13.2 billion (against US$ 11.3 billion), as a result of the increase in some of its items. Specifically, Investment income which increased by US$ 3.4 billion, to reach US$ 5.2 billion, spurred by high profit transfers of foreign companies in Egypt. Government expenditures rose by 29.8 percent, to US$ 1.5 billion due to a rise in other government expenditures, and salaries of governmental employees abroad. On the other hand, Other services payments dropped by 28.4 percent, to US$ 2.9 billion, due to lower amounts transferred abroad by Egyptian & foreign companies, and to lower payments for communications services. Travel payments decreased by 15.0 percent, due to a decline in the expenses for tourism and medical care abroad, and the visa card payments, and payments of tourism companies and hotels as well. Transportation Payments declined by 17.6 percent to US$ 1.2 million due to lower transfers of Egyptian shipment companies, pipelines services payments provided by SUMED, as well as foreign airlines companies transfers abroad. % Transportation Services Receipts & Payments Items as a Percentage of Total Services Receipts & Payments FY 2009/ Travel Investment Income Government Receipts 15.8 Other Net unrequited transfers increased by 26.9 percent, to US$ 10.5 billion, against US$ 8.2 billion during the previous year. In which Net Private transfers rose by 24.6 percent, to US$ 9.5 billion, due to the pickup in workers' remittances by 25.0 percent. Likewise net official transfers edged to US$ million. US$ bn Serv ices Receipts Transportation Travel Unrequited Transfers Investment Income Government Payments Serv ices Pay ments Other Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2008/ /2010 Official Transfers (Net) Workers' Remittances Priv ate Transf ers (Net)

9 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 4 Given the aforementioned developments in the current account, most external balancing indicators have developed as shown in the following figure: % Merchandise Exports/ Merchandise Imports External Balancing ratios FY / / Capital and Financial Account 91.5 Service Receipts/ Service Payments Current Receipts/ Current Payments Current Receipts (excluding official transfers)/current Payments The capital and financial account s higher net inflows (by the amount of US$ 6.0 billion) to reach US$ 8.3 billion during the FY 2009/10, are due to the following factors: A-Portfolio investment in Egypt with a net inflow of US$ 7.9 billion shifting from a net outflow of US$ 9.2 billion during the FY 2008/09. Such inflows include: net sales of Egyptian treasury bills worth US$ 5.0 billion; foreigners' net purchases in the Egyptian stock market worth US$ 1.5 billion; and US$ 1.4 billion, related to transactions in sovereign, and petroleum bonds issued abroad. US$ 8.1 billion (4.3 percent of GDP) during the previous year. As net direct investments in the petroleum sector contracted to US$ 3.6 billion from US$ 5.4 billion, and privatization proceeds amounted to US$ million against US$ million. However, Net Greenfield investments improved to US$ 2.7 billion during FY 2009/10, from US$ 2.3 billion a year earlier. US$ bn Net Foreign Investments FY / /2010 Net FDI in Egypt Net Portfolio Investment in Egypt Breakdown of total FDI inflows by economic sectors, excluding petroleum sector, revealed that the financial sector absorbed 7.9 percent, manufacturing sector 4.1 percent, services sector 3.5 percent, real estate and construction sectors 2.8 percent each, agricultural sector 2.4 percent, tourism sector 2.2 percent, and communication and information technology 0.6 percent. B- Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) in Egypt figures declined by 16.7 percent, to amount US$ 6.8 billion (3.1 percent of GDP), from

10 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 5 C- Net foreign assets and liabilities registered an outflow of US$ 7.1 billion (compared with an inflow of US$ 3.9 billion a year earlier). D- Medium - & long-term loans and suppliers' credit realized net repayment of US$ million during FY 2009/10, against US$ million a year earlier.

11 Section II External Liquidity

12 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 7 A-Net International Reserves (NIR) D uring FY 2009/10, NIR increased by US$ 3.9 billion, to reach US$ 35.2 billion (8.6 months in terms of merchandise imports coverage) at end of June NIR & Months of Imports Covered US$ bn (End of June) (Month) Jun-05Jun-06 Jun-07Jun-08 Jun-09Jun-10 Loanes to IMF Foreign Exchange Gold Months of Merchandise Imports Coverage The pickup was ascribed to the rise in foreign currencies by US$ 2.3 billion worth, and the augmentation of Egypt's SDR allocations by US$ 1.1 billion worth, along with the increase in the value of gold by the equivalent of US$ 0.5 billion after its revaluation at the end of June 2010 likewise the case at the end of every fiscal year. NIR reached US$ 35.5 billion at end of September Concerning CBE's international reserves policy management, the Bank's investment policy takes into account diversifying the composition of NIR. The policy was based upon External Liquidity Developments certain factors: Egypt's external debt structure; currencies of Egypt's main trade partners; and reserves' distribution among many portfolios, with maturities and goals being risk/return balanced. (US$ mn) End of June 2009 June 2010 Net International Reserves (1-2) Gross Official Reserves Gold Foreign Currencies SDRs Loans to IMF Reserve Liabilities Reserves/Months of Imports Currently, the CBE deals with its reserves management on real time basis via the most advanced electronic systems worldwide. B- Net Foreign Assets of Banks (NFA) Banks net foreign assets increased by US$ 1.5 billion during FY 2009/10, to reach US$ 16.2 billion at end of June US$ bn Foreign Assets & Liabilities of Banks (End of June) Assets Liabilities

13 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 8 Foreign currency deposits with banks decreased by 7.0 percent, to reach US$ 27.8 billion at end of June On the other hand, local currency deposits increased by 14.3 percent. Accordingly, the ratio of foreign currency deposits to total deposits declined to 20.2 percent at end of June 2010, from 23.4 percent at end of June LE bn Developments in Deposits by Local and Foreign Currencies (End of June) Foreign Currency Deposits Local Currency Deposits

14 Section III External Debt

15 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 9 E gypt's external debt (public and private-all maturities) amounted to US$ 33.7 billion at end of June 2010, against US$ 31.5 billion at end of June The rise of US$ 2.2 billion was an outcome of the increase in net disbursements of loans and facilities by US$ 3.4 billion (disbursements US$ 5.4 billion and principal repayments US$ 2.0 billion), and the decrease by US$ 1.2 billion in the exchange rate of the majority of currencies vis-àvis the US dollar. A- Breakdown by Type At the end of June 2010, External debt by maturity indicates that longterm debt registered US$ 30.3 billion, (91.2 percent of total debt), Short Term 8.8% Medium Term 1.4% External Debt by maturity End of June 2010 Long Term 89.8% Medium-term debt registered US$ million and the rest US$ 3.0 billion is Short-term debt. Medium- and long-term debt includes: -Bilateral loans (rescheduled and non-rescheduled) and suppliers & buyers credit owed to Paris Club* members, amounted to US$ 16.7 billion or 49.5 percent of total debt. Debt owed to non-paris Club members amounted US$ External Debt million or 2.7 percent of total debt. - International and regional organizations debt posted US$ 10.0 billion, or 29.6 percent of total debt (including US$ 1.2 billion, as Egypt s allocation of SDRs by IMF), increasing by US$ 1.8 billion, from end of June Egyptian bonds and notes issued by Government abroad, (holdings of non-residents), increased by US$ 1.2 billion, to US$ 3.1 billion or 9.2 percent of total debt at end of June It include: US$ million sovereign bonds, issued in July 2001, and falling due in July US$ 1.3 billion guaranteed notes, issued in Sept. 2005, and falling due in Sept US$ million Egyptian pound Eurobonds issued in July 2007, and falling due in July US$ 1.2 billion sovereign notes (holdings of non-residents) issued in April 2010 in two tranches** Egyptian bonds and notes 9.2% International & regional organizations 29.6% Supplier's & buyer's Credits 0.9% External Debt structure End of June 2010 Private sector (Non guaranteed) 0.2% Short term debt 8.8% Rescheduled bilateral debt 37.4% Other bilateral debt 13.9% * The Paris Club is an informal group of nineteen official creditors who seek to find coordinated and sustainable solutions to the payment difficulties encountered by debtor nations. ** Maturing in 2020 and 2040 with nominal value of US$ 1.0 billion and US$ 500 million respectively.

16 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 10 Non-guaranteed Medium- and long-term debt of the private sector reached US$ 77.2 million or 0.2 percent of the total at end of June Short-term debt increased by US$ million, reaching US$ 3.0 billion or 8.8 percent of the total. The structure of External debt data reveals an ongoing improvement. The public sector owed US$ 31.4 billion or 93.2 percent of Egypt s external debt, while the private sector owed US$ 2.3 billion or 6.8 percent. B- Breakdown by Currency A breakdown of external debt by main component currencies indicates that the US dollar is the main borrowing currency (creditors other than the USA), with a relative importance of 43.0 percent of the total. The Euro comes next, constituting 26.2 percent, then the Japanese yen 12.5 percent, the Special Drawing Rights (SDRs)* 6.8 percent and the Kuwaiti dinar 5.9 percent. Egy ptian Pound 2.2% Swiss franc 1.5% External Debt by Major Currencies End of June 2010 Japanese yen 12.5% US dollar 43.0% Other currencies 1.9% Kuwaiti dinar 5.9% Euro 26.2% SDRs 6.8% C- Breakdown by Creditor Distribution by creditor indicates that 42.9 percent of Egypt's external debt is owed to four countries; namely, Japan (11.9 percent), France (10.9 percent), USA (10.2 percent), and Germany (9.9 percent). Meanwhile, 4.7 percent is owed to Arab countries (mainly Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates). Egyptian bonds and notes International & regional organizations 29.6% Other countries 10.7% External Debt by Creditor Arab Countries 4.7% United Kingdom 2.9% D- Breakdown by Debtor USA 10.2% 9.2% France 10.9% June 2010 Japan 11.9% Germany 9.9% Debt of the main institutional sectors increased by US$ 2.2 billion at end of June As such, debt of Monetary authority (CBE) increased by US$ one billion, Other sectors by US$ million, whereas local government debt decreased by US$ million, and Banks' by US$ million. (US$ mn) (25.7) External Debt by Debtor share in total increase/decrease End of June (78.3) (744.6) (5715.4) 1, / / /2010 Central & Local Gov ernment Monetary Authority Banks Other Sectors * Including Egypt s allocation of SDRs by IMF (US$ 1.2 billion).

17 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 11 The structure of Egypt s external debt by debtor did not witness any significant change. The central and local government remained the main debtor, with US$ 26.2 billion or 77.9 percent of total external debt at end of June 2010, compared with US$ 25.8 billion or 81.9 percent of the total at end of June (US$ bn) External Debt by Debtor End of June 2009 Central & Local Government Monetary Authority Banks Other Sectors 2010 E- External Debt Indicators* The ratio of external debt to GDP declined to 15.9 percent at end of June 2010, compared with 16.9 percent a year earlier. % External Debt Indicators FY / / / / /10 (US$) Government External Debt / External Debt External Debt /GDP External Debt per capita (US$) (right axis) As current receipts (exports of goods and services, including transfers) increased by 1.2 percent, during FY 2009/10, Debt service ratio to current receipts decreased to 4.5 percent from 5.4 percent % External Debt Indicators FY 2005/ / / / /10 Debt Service / Current Receipts (including transfers) Short-term Debt / Net International Reserves Short-term Debt / Total External Debt Debt Service / Exports of Goods and Services The ratio of short-term debt to NIR increased from 6.8 percent to 8.4 percent, owing to an increase in short-term debt by 39.1 percent during the FY 2009/10. Its ratio to total debt increased to 8.8 percent from 6.8 percent a year earlier. External debt per capita dropped to US$ from US$ Debt Service Payments (Mediumand long-term) decreased by US$ million to US$ 2.6 billion, due to US$ million drop in principal repayments, (to reach US$ 2.0 billion) and US$ 92.9 million decline in interest payments, (to US$ million) * For more indicators, refer to appendix I, table No 4.

18 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 12 At the end of June 2010, Net International Reserves (NIR) reached US$ 35.2 billion, covering 104.5% of total external debt (US$ 33.7 billion), reflecting a secure ratio. Other Regional Indicators According to the Global Development Finance report for 2010, (World Bank), Egypt's external debt position is the largest debtor country in the Middle East. Globally it ranked twenty two in position among the middle-income debtor countries in 2008 (US$ 32 billion) following Russian Federation, which ranked the first then China, Turkey.etc, as shown in the opposite chart. US$ bn US$ bn External Debt and Net International Reserves End of June External Debt NIR Total External Debt Stocks position for Middle income countries in 2008 Russia China Turkey Brazil India Poland Mexico Indonesia Argentina Kazakhstan Romania Ukraine Malaysia Philippines Thailand Chile Venezuela Pakistan Colombia South Africa Bulgaria Egypt The following table shows some debt indicators for Egypt's position compared to some regional country groups according to the Global Development Finance report 2010-World Bank. Region Debt Indicators for Regional Country Groups Debt indicators (percent) Debt stock/gni * stock/exports Debt service/exports East Asia and Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean Middle East & North Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Egypt * GNI = Gross National Income

19 Section IV Exchange Rate Developments

20 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 13 Exchange Rate Developments According to CBE Central Chamber for FX Statistics, the weighted average of US dollar exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market (launched in December 2004) reached EGP at end of June 2010, against EGP at end of June 2009, appreciating by about 1.77 percent as shown in the opposite figure. For market rates, the Egyptian pound depreciated by around 1.7 percent vis a vis the US$ during FY 2009/2010. Furthermore, it depreciated against the Japanese Yen by 9.0 percent, the Chinese Yuan by 2.4 percent, both of the Saudi Riyal and the UAE Dirham by 1.7 percent, the Swiss franc by 1.6 percent, and the Kuwait Dinar by 0.2 percent. On the other hand, the Egyptian pound appreciated against the Euro by 13.1 percent, and the Pound Sterling by 8.6 percent. (In Piasters) Exchange rate Of The US$ against EG Pound End Of June InterBank Weighted Average Rate Market Rate

21 Statistical Section

22 Central Bank of Egypt External Position Appendix I Table Page I- Balance of Payments BOP Current Account 1 17 BOP Capital and Financial Account (contd.) 18 II- International Investment Position (IIP) 2 19 III- External Liquidity Net International Reserves & Net Foreign Assets of the Banking System IV- External Debt External Debt by Type External Debt Indicators External Debt by Debtor V- Exchange Rate Developments Exchange Rates ( in piasters per foreign currency unit ) 7 24

23 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 17 Table (1) Balance of Payments (US$ mn) FY 2008/ /2010* Trade Balance Exports** Petroleum Other Exports Imports** Petroleum Other Imports Services (Net) Receipts Transportation, of which : Suez Canal Travel Investment Income Government receipts Other Payments Transportation Travel Investment Income, of which Interest Paid Government Expenditures Other Balance of Goods & Services Transfers Private Transfers (Net) Official Transfers (Net) Current Account Balance * Preliminary. ** Include free zones exports and imports.

24 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 18 Table (1) Balance of Payments (contd.) (US$ mn) FY 2008/ /2010* Capital & Financial Account Capital Account Financial Account Direct Investment Abroad Direct Investment in Egypt (Net) Portfolio Investment Abroad (Net) Portfolio Investment in Egypt (Net), of which: Bonds Other Investment (Net) Net Borrowing M&L-Term Loans (Net) Drawings Repayments MT-Suppliers' Credit (Net) Drawings Repayments ST-Suppliers' Credit (Net) Other Assets Central Bank Banks Other Other Liabilities Central Bank Banks Net Errors & Omissions Overall Balance Change in CBE Reserve Assets,Increase(-) * Preliminary.

25 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 19 Table (2) International Investment Position (IIP) (US$ million) End of December 2005 December 2006 December 2007 December 2008 * Assets Liabilities Assets Liabilities Assets Liabilities Assets Liabilities Total Direct investment Portfolio investments Equity security Debt security Other investments Trade credits General government Other sectors Short-term Loans Monetary authorities Use of Fund credit & loans from the Fund Other long-term General government Long-term Banks Long-term Short-term Other sectors Long-term Currency and deposits Monetary authorities Banks Other sectors Other assets Monetary authorities Short-term General government Banks Long-term Short-term Other sectors Reserve assets * Preliminary.

26 Table (3) :Net International Reserves & Net Foreign Assets of the Banking System US$ million End of June Net International Reserves (1-2) Gross Official Reserves Gold Foreign currencies SDRs Loans to IMF Reserve Liabilities Banks' Net Foreign Assets Assets Liabilities Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 20

27 Table (4) External Debt End of June (US$ mn) Total External Debt* Medium & long term debt : Rescheduled bilateral debt ** ODA Non-ODA Other bilateral debt Paris Club countries Other countries International & regional organizations Suppliers' & buyers' credits Egyptian bonds and notes Long- term deposits # Private sector debt (non-guaranteed) Short-term debt Deposits Other short-term facilities Source: Central Bank of Egypt. + Provisional * The difference from World Bank data is in short-term debt. ** According to the agreement signed with Paris Club countries on May 25, # It has been agreed to consider the Arab International Bank deposit a medium- and long- term external debt. Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 21

28 Table (5) External Debt Indicators (%) FY 2002/ / / / / / / /10 External Debt / Exports (G & S) % Debt Service * (Principal & Interest) (US$ mn) Debt Service / Exports (G & S) % Debt Service / Current Receipts % Central Bank of Egypt - External Position Interest / Exports (G & S) % External Debt /GDP (at current market prices) Short-term Debt / External Debt Short-term Debt / Net International Reserves External Debt per capita (US$) * Includes interest payments on US dollar-denominated bonds and notes held by non-residents 22

29 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 23 Table (6) External Debt by Debtor (US$ mn) End of June 2009 % June 2010 * % Change (-) % External Debt Total Medium- & Long-Term Total Short-Term Central & Local Government Medium- & Long-Term Bonds & Notes Loans (721.8) (3.0) Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities Short-Term Money Market Instruments Loans Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities Monetary Authority Medium- & Long-Term Bonds & Notes Loans (79.5) (37.6) Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities ** Short-Term Money Market Instruments Loans Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities Banks Medium- & Long-Term Loans (20.6) (3.3) Bonds & Notes Loans (20.6) (3.3) Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities Short-Term Loans Money Market Instruments Loans (16.1) (80.5) Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities Other Sectors Medium- & Long-Term (126.9) (4.6) Loans from Direct Investors Bonds & Notes Trade Credit Loans (126.9) (4.6) Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities Short-Term Loans from Direct Investors Money Market Instruments Trade Credit Loans Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities * Provisional. ** Includes US$ 1159 million representing SDR allocation by IMF to its member countries, Egypt's share is SDR mn.

30 First: Interbank Rates * Minimum Maximum Weighted average Table (7) Exchange Rates (In piasters per foreign currency unit) End of June 2009 Second : Market Rates Buy Sell Buy Sell US Dollar Euro Pound Sterling Swiss Franc Japanese Yens Saudi Riyal Kuwaiti Dinar UAE Dirham Chinese Yuan Source: CBE daily exchange rates. * The interbank rates were launched on December 23, June Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 24

31 Central Bank of Egypt External Position Appendix II Table Page I- Medium - and Long -Term External Debt A- Outstanding Stock Public and Publicly Guaranteed a. By Creditor Country b. Paris Club Debt (1) Rescheduled Debt (2) Non Rescheduled Debt c. Other Bilateral Debt d. Multilateral Agencies Private Sector, Non-Guaranteed B. Outstanding External Short-Term Debt C. Disbursed and Undisbursed Amounts of Loans Signed II- Projected Medium - and Long -Term External Debt Service Public and Publicly Guaranteed Paris Club Debt a. Rescheduled Debt b. Non Rescheduled Debt Other Bilateral Debt Multilateral Agencies Projected Sovereign Bonds Projected Guaranteed Notes Projected Egyptian Pound Euro Bond Projected Sovereign Notes III- Exchange Rates of the Currencies of External Debt Versus US Dollar 21 54

32 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 27 Outstanding Stock as at End of June (US$ million) Total Debt Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed Debt 28, , , , A. Paris Club Bilateral Debt 19, , , , Rescheduled Debt 14, , , , Non-Rescheduled Debt (1) 4, , , , B. Other Bilateral Debt (2) C. Multilateral Institutions (3) 6, , , , D. Sovereign Bond E. Guaranteed Notes 1, , , , F. Egyptian Pound Euro Bond , G. Sovereign Notes (4) , Private Sector Non-Guaranteed Short-Term Debt 1, , , , Deposits (Non-Residents) , , , Other , , Grand Total 29, , , , Using end of period exchange rate. (1) Includes US$ million buyers' credit & US$ million suppliers' credit. (2) Includes US$ 0.26 million suppliers' credit. (3) Includes US$ 1,128 million representing SDR allocation by IMF to its member countries. Egypt s share is SDR mn. (4) Representing sovereign notes for US$ 1000 million due in 2020 & US$ 500 million due in 2040 less US$ million as residents' purchases. Figure 1-1 ( US$ bn ) Table ( 1 ) External Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June

33 Figure 1-2 Medium and Long-Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June 2010 Other Bilateral Debt 3% Sovereign Bonds 1% Egyptian Pound Euro Bond 1% Guaranteed Notes 4% Multilateral Institutions 33% Sovereign Notes 4% Paris Club Bilateral Debt 54% Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 28

34 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 29 Country Table ( 2 ) Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt by Creditor Country Outstanding Stock as at End of June (US$ million) {1} Total Debt Int'l Organizations 6, , , , Japan 3, , , , France 4, , , , United States 4, , , , Germany 3, , , , Guaranteed Notes 1, , , , Sovereign Notes , Kuwait Spain Italy Egyptian Pound Euro Bond , Austria Switzerland Denmark Sovereign Bond Canada United Kingdom Australia China The Netherlands Belgium Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates Sweden Norway Lebanon Bahrain Czech Republic Syrian Arab Rep {2} Grand Total 28, , , , {1} Using end of period exchange rate. {2} Includes US$ 1,128 million representing SDR allocation by IMF to its member countries.egypt s share is SDR mn.

35 Figure 2 Germany 10% Japan 13% United States 11% Guaranteed Notes 4% Medium and Long-Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt by Creditor Country Outstanding Stock as at End of June 2010 Sovereign Notes 4% France 11% Int'l Organizations 33% Other Countries 14% Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 30

36 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 31 Country Japan 3, , , , France 4, , , , United States 4, , , , Germany 3, , , , Spain Italy Austria Switzerland Denmark Canada United Kingdom Australia The Netherlands Belgium Sweden Norway Grand Total 19, , , , {1} This table sums up tables 4 and 5. {2} Using end of period exchange rate. Figure Table ( 3 ) {1} Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Paris Club Bilateral Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June Total Debt Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Paris Club Bilateral Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June (US$ million) {2} ( US$bn )

37 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 32 Table ( 4 ) Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Paris Club Bilateral Debt Rescheduled Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June Country Total Debt (US$ million) {1} Japan 2, , , , United States 3, , , , France 3, , , , Germany 2, , , , Spain Austria Switzerland Italy Canada United Kingdom Australia Denmark The Netherlands Belgium Sweden Norway Grand Total 14, , , , {1} Using end of period exchange rate. Figure 4 Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Paris Club Bilateral Debt Third Stage of the Agreed Minute on May 25,1991 Outstanding Stock as at End of June 20.0 ( US$bn )

38 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 33 Table ( 5 ) Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Paris Club Bilateral Debt Non- Rescheduled Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June Country Total Debt (US$ million) {1} Germany 1, , , , Japan , France United States Italy Spain Denmark Switzerland Austria Canada Belgium Sweden United Kingdom The Netherlands Grand Total 4, , , , {1} Using end of period exchange rate. Figure 5-1 5,000 4,800 Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Non- Rescheduled Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June ( US$mn ) 4,600 4,400 4,200 4,000 3,800 3,

39 Figure 5-2 Non-Rescheduled Debt 25% Medium and Long-Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Paris Club Bilateral Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June 2010 Rescheduled Debt 75% Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 34

40 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 35 Table ( 6 ) Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Other Bilateral Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June Country Total Debt (US$ million) {1} Kuwait China Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates Lebanon Bahrain Czech Republic Germany Syrian Arab Rep Grand Total {1} Using end of period exchange rate. Figure 6 1,200 1,000 Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Other Bilateral Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June ( US$mn )

41 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 36 Table ( 7 ) Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Multilateral Institutions Outstanding Stock as at End of June Creditor Total Debt (US$ million) {1} IBRD 1, , , , European Investment Bank 1, , , , IDA 1, , , , Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development 1, , , , African Development Bank , , IMF , {2} African Development Fund International Fund for Agricultural Development OPEC Arab Monetary Fund Islamic Development Bank Arab Trade Financing Program Grand Total 6, , , , {1} Using end of period exchange rate. (2) Representing SDR allocations by the IMF to its member countries. Egypt s share is SDR mn. Figure ,000 8,000 Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Multilateral Institutions Outstanding Stock as at End of June ( US$mn ) 6,000 4,000 2,

42 Figure 7-2 African Development Bank 12% IBRD 25% Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Multilateral Institutions Outstanding Stock as at End of June 2010 IMF 11% Others 6% IDA 14% European Investment Bank 20% AFESD 12% Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 37

43 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 38 Table ( 8 ) Medium and Long-Term Private Sector Non-Guaranteed External Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June Country Total Debt (US$ million) {1} United States Bahrain Int'l Organizations Austria Germany Japan Italy Grand Total {1} Using end of period exchange rate. Figure Medium and Long-Term Private Sector Non-Guaranteed External Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June ( US$mn )

44 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 39 Table ( 9 ) Short-Term Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June (US$ million) Total Debt Short-Term Debt Deposits (Non-Residents) , , , Trade Credits , , Loans Banking Facilities Grand Total 1, , , , Figure 9 3,000 Short-Term Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June 2,500 2,000 ( US$mn ) 1,500 1,

45 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 40 Table ( 10 ) Disbursed and Undisbursed Amounts for Loans Signed from 1/7/2007 to 30/6/2010 (US$ million) {1} Signed Loans Disbursed Undisbursed 1- Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed Debt 6, , , A. Paris Club Bilateral Debt Non- Rescheduled Debt B. Other Bilateral Debt C. Multilateral Institutions {2} 5, , , Medium and Long-Term Private Sector Non-Guaranteed Debt Grand Total 6, , , {1} Using end of period exchange rate. {2} The difference between the signed loans and the disbursed & undisbursed amounts is due to exchange rate ( the disbursement is in different currency from the original loan ). Figure 10 Disbursed and Undisbursed Amounts for Loans Signed from 1/7/2003 to 30/6/2010 3, , ( US$mn ) 2, , , , Signed Loans Disbursed Undisbursed