The Central Bank of Egypt

Transcription

1 1 The Central Bank of Egypt Press Release Balance of Payments Performance During FY 2015/2016 In FY 2015/2016, Egypt's transactions with the external world unfolded an overall BOP deficit of US$ 2.8 billion (against an overall surplus of US$ 3.7 billion a year earlier). This came as a result of the rise in the current account deficit, registering US$ 18.7 billion (against US$ 12.1 billion). Meanwhile, the capital and financial account posted a net inflow of US$ 19.9 billion (against US$ 17.9 billion). The rise in the current account deficit was an outcome of the following developments: The trade deficit registered US$ 37.6 billion (versus US$ 39.1 billion), due partly to the decline in world oil prices, which had a bearing on Egyptian exports and imports, as shown in the following figures: Merchandise export proceeds retreated by US$ 3.5 billion to US$ 18.7 billion (from US$ 22.2 billion). Such a retreat was traceable to the drop of US$ 3.2 billion in oil exports (crude oil and products), to stand at US$ 5.7 billion, in the wake of the fall in world prices of crude oil by 41.3 percent on average, in FY 2015/2016, relative to the previous year, despite the increase in the quantities exported of this item (noting that Egypt's exports of crude oil have made up 62.7 percent of its total oil exports and 19.0 percent of total merchandise exports in the reporting year). Moreover, proceeds from non-oil exports rolled back by 2.4 percent, from US$ 13.4 billion to US$ 13.0 billion. The widening of the trade deficit was curbed by the US$ 5.0 billion fall in merchandise imports, recording, as such, US$ 56.3 billion (versus US$ 61.3 billion), on the back of the declines in oil imports by US$ 3.1 billion, to US$ 9.3 billion,

2 2 and in non-oil imports by 3.9 percent, to US$ 47.0 billion (against US$ 48.9 billion). Unrequited current transfers (net) decelerated to US$ 16.9 billion in FY 2015/2016 (from US$ 21.9 billion), on account of the drop in both net official transfers (cash and commodity) and net private transfers. The former posted US$ million (against US$ 2.7 billion), while the latter posted US$ 16.8 billion (against US$ 19.2 billion), due to the 11.7 percent drop in workers' remittances. The services and income surplus narrowed by 59.1 percent, posting US$ 2.1 billion (versus US$ 5.0 billion). This was driven by lower services and income receipts (US$ 16.5 billion, versus US$ 22.0 billion), reflecting the drop in most of their items, especially tourism revenues, which dipped by 48.9 percent, to US$ 3.8 billion (from US$ 7.4 billion), owing to the decline in the number of tourist nights from 99.2 million to as low as 51.8 million nights. On the other hand, travel payments rose from US$ 3.3 billion to US$ 4.1 billion, largely caused by the increase of US$ million in visa card payments. As a result, travel balance unfolded a net outflow for the first time. Investment income payments registered some US$ 4.9 billion during the FY under review, 66.4 percent of which are transfers of profits of foreign petroleum & non-petroleum companies. Suez Canal receipts declined by 4.5 percent, to stand at US$ 5.1 billion (compared to US$ 5.4 billion). This is mainly attributed to the decline in the value of SDR versus the US dollar by an average of 2.1 percent in the year in review, relative to the preceding year. As indicated above, the capital and financial account recorded a net inflow of US$ 19.9 billion in FY 2015/2016 (against US$ 17.9 billion), mainly as an outcome of the following factors:

3 3 Net FDI in Egypt inflows rose to US$ 6.8 billion (from US$ 6.4 billion), spurred mainly by the increase in net inflows for greenfield investments, to post US$ 4.5 billion (versus US$ 3.8 billion), and for oil sector investments, to post US$ 1.6 billion. Portfolio investment in Egypt unfolded a net outflow of US$ 1.3 billion (against US$ million), principally due to the Egyptian authorities' repayment of bonds in the amount of US$ 1.25 billion (outflows) that had fallen due in the reporting year. These bonds were floated in world markets in Other investments registered a net inflow of US$ 14.4 billion (versus US$ 12.5 billion); as other assets and liabilities recorded a net inflow of US$ 8.3 billion (compared with US$ 7.5 billion), and short-term suppliers' credit showed net disbursements of US$ 5.8 billion (against US$ 5.3 billion). This attests to the confidence in the Egyptian economy, given its ability to honor its external obligations. * Numbers expressed in US$ billion have been rounded.

4 Balance of Payments (US.$m.) 2014/15* 2015/16* Trade Balance Exports Petroleum Other Exports Imports Petroleum Other Imports Services (net) Receipts Transportation of which: Suez Canal dues Travel Investment Income Government Receipts Other Payments Transportation Travel Investment Income of which: Interest Paid Government Expenditures Other Balance of Goods & Services Transfers Private Transfers (net) Official Transfers (net) Current Account Balance

5 Balance of Payments (cont.) (US.$m.) 2014/15* 2015/16* Capital & Financial Account Capital Account Financial Account Direct Investment Abroad Direct Investment In Egypt (net) Portfolio Investment Abroad(net) Portfolio Investment in Egypt (net) of which: Bonds Other Investment (net) Net Borrowing M&L Term Loans (net) Drawings Repayments MT Suppliers Credit (net) Drawings Repayments ST Suppliers Credit (net) Other Assets Central Bank Banks Other Other Liabilities Central Bank Banks Net Errors & Omissions Overall Balance Change in CBE's reserve assets (increase = -) * Preliminary.