Central Bank of Egypt

Transcription

1 Central Bank of Egypt External Position of the Egyptian Economy FY 2016/17 Volume No. (58)

2 Central Bank of Egypt External Position Preface The External Position of the Egyptian Economy Report is a series produced by the Economic Research Sector in the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE). The report tracks, on quarterly basis, the international transactions that the Egyptian economy conducts with the rest of the world. It relies, for this purpose, on the national statistics that are regularly compiled in line with the SDDS prescriptions. Enthused by the CBE keenness to enhance its disclosure, transparency and communication policy, the report is meant to serve several functions. Generally, it spreads, to a broad array of readers, knowledge of Egypt s external accounts including the balance of payments, external debt, international investment position and external liquidity. Particularly, it monitors key external sector performance indicators of the economy in order to identify areas of policy needs. The information revealed in this series has also significant implications for decision-making, investment climate, doing-business environment and sovereign credit ratings. The report contains 7 sections. The first two give a performance portrait of the key components of Egypt's Balance of Payments (BOP) and the tourism sector performance. The third and fourth review developments related to the International Investment Position (IIP) and external liquidity. The fifth and sixth show Egypt's external debt in its different classifications and the exchange rate developments. The last section is a statistical part that provides more details on the above mentioned six sections. This is in addition to a glossary. The report is downloadable from CBE website Hard copies can be obtained from the Economic Research Sector, 8th floor, 54 El Gomhoreya Street, Cairo.

3 Central Bank of Egypt External Position Table of Contents Overview Page Section I: Balance of Payments (BOP) BOP Performance 1 1-Current Account 1 2-Capital and Financial Account 4 Section II: Tourism Sector Performance Summary: 7 A- Tourism Sector Performance 7 B- Hotel Sector Performance 8 Section III: International Investment Position (IIP) 11 Section IV: Section V: External Liquidity A -Net International Reserves (NIR) 13 B -Net Foreign Assets of Banks (NFA) 13 External Debt A - Breakdown by Maturity 15 B - Breakdown by Type 16 C - Breakdown by Currency 16 D - Breakdown by Creditor 17 E - Breakdown by Debtor 17 F - External Debt Indicators 18 Section VI: Exchange Rate Developments 19 Section VII: Statistics Appendix I 1- Balance of Payments International Investment Position (IIP) Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS) NIR & NFA at Banks External Debt by Type External Debt Indicators External Debt by Debtor Foreign Exchange Rates 31

4 Central Bank of Egypt External Position Table of Contents (Cont.) Page Appendix II A- Medium- and Long-Term External Debt B- Projected Medium- and Long-Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service C- Projected Short-Term Debt 75 D- Exchange Rates of the Currencies of External Debt versus US Dollar 76 Appendix III Box. (1): Egypt's Subscription to SDDS and Data Quality Dimensions Box. (2): Egypt's Data Quality Dimensions 80 Box. (3): Doing Business in Egypt 81 Box. (4): Tourism Market Diversification Glossary 83

5 Central Bank of Egypt External Position Striving to bolster confidence in the Egyptian economy and achieve monetary stability, the CBE has taken several measures on 3 November, 2016 to rectify exchange rate policy by moving to a liberalized exchange rate regime, so that banks would be at liberty to quote and trade at any exchange rate. This move would allow the CBE to quell any distortions in the domestic foreign currency market and put foreign exchange activity back on the right and formal track through eradicating the parallel market altogether. Undoubtedly, the CBE s Decision to liberalize the exchange rate regime would lead to the steady accumulation of foreign currency reserves through the formal channels. Alongside, the CBE decided to abolish the maximum limits of foreign currency transfers by banks' customers as of June Egypt's BOP ran an overall surplus of US$ 13.7 billion in FY 2016/2017 (of which, US$ 12.2 billion were realized in November /June 2016/2017, following the CBE's decision of the exchange rate liberalization) against an overall deficit of US$ 2.8 billion in the previous FY. This is because the capital and financial account recorded a net inflow of US$ 29.0 billion (against US$ 21.2 billion) and the current account deficit narrowed by 21.5 percent to US$ 15.6 billion (from US$ 19.8 billion). The capital and financial account revealed the following developments: the net inflows of FDI in Egypt rose to US$ 7.9 billion, portfolio investment in Egypt unfolded a net inflow of US$ 16.0 billion, and other assets and liabilities achieved a net outflow of US$ 2.5 billion. The current account deficit was mainly traceable to the following developments: the trade deficit declined by 8.4 percent to US$ 35.4 billion, the services surplus picked up by 4.3 percent, to record US$ Overview 6.8 billion, and the income balance ran a deficit of US$ 4.4 billion. Meanwhile, unrequited current transfers (net) inched up by 4.1 percent, to register US$ 17.5 billion. Egypt s International Investment Position (IIP) at end of June 2017 recorded net external liabilities (assets minus liabilities) of about US$ billion, up by 15.4 percent compared to end-june Net International Reserves (NIR) increased by around US$ 13.8 billion to reach US$ 31.3 billion, thus covering 6.6 months of merchandise imports at end of June The increase in NIR was mainly due to the rise of foreign currencies by just US$ 13.8 billion. During the Report s preparation, NIR reached US$ 36.5 billion at end of September Banks net foreign assets increased by around US$ 8.0 billion during FY 2016/2017. Foreign currency deposits with banks increased by 5.3 percent during the period concerned, reaching about US$ 38.5 billion at end of June As a percentage of total deposits, they made up 27.8 percent. Total external debt increased by about 23.3 percent to about US$ 79.0 billion at end of June 2017, from US$ 55.8 billion at end of June The external debt remains within manageable limits, and its position continues to have a favorable structure, as 84.5 percent of the debt are medium- and long-term. The weighted average of the interbank foreign exchange market rate revealed that the Egyptian pound interbank rate depreciated by 51.5 percent during FY 2016/2017, as the EGP reached per US dollar at end of June 2017, against EGP per US dollar at end of June This came in the wake of the decision of the liberalization of the Egyptian pound exchange rate in November 2016.

6 Section I Balance of Payments (BOP)

7 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 1 E gypt's BOP ran an overall surplus of US$ 13.7 billion in FY 2016/2017 (of which, US$ 12.2 billion were realized in November/ June 2016/2017, following the CBE's decision of the exchange rate liberalization) against an overall deficit of US$ 2.8 billion in the previous FY. This is because the capital and financial account recorded a net inflow of US$ 29.0 billion (against US$ 21.2 billion) and the current account deficit narrowed by 21.5 percent to US$ 15.6 billion (from US$ 19.8 billion). Chart (1) shows the developments in Egypt s BOP main components, on quarterly basis. Chart (1) : Egypt's BOP Main Components US$ bn Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2015/ /2017 Capital & Financial Account Current Account Overall Balance 1- Current Account The current account deficit was mainly traceable to the following developments: the trade deficit declined by 8.4 percent to US$ 35.4 billion (from US$ 38.7 billion a year earlier), the services surplus picked up by 4.3 percent, to record US$ 6.8 billion (against US$ 6.5 billion), and the income balance ran a deficit of US$ 4.4 billion. Meanwhile, unrequited current transfers (net) inched up by 4.1 percent, to register US$ 17.5 billion (versus US$ 16.8 billion). BOP Performance 1.1: Trade on Goods Trade volume increased by 3.6 percent, to reach US$ 78.8 billion (33.5 percent of GDP) during FY 2016/17. The trade deficit decreased by US$ 3.2 billion, to US$ 35.4 billion (15.1 percent of GDP) from US$ 38.7 billion (11.5 percent of GDP), due to the following developments: Merchandise exports increased by 15.9 percent to US$ 21.7 billion, due to the increase in both non-oil exports by 16.2 percent, to reach US$ 15.1 billion (69.8 percent of total exports) and in oil exports by 15.4 percent to reach US$ 6.6 billion (30.2 percent of total exports). As a result, the exports /imports ratio mounted to 38.0 percent, from 32.6 percent. Merchandise imports slightly decreased by 0.5 percent to US$ 57.1 billion, reflecting the decrease in non-oil imports by 4.5 percent to US$ 45.9 billion (80.4 percent of total imports), and the increase in oil imports by 20.5 percent to US$ 11.2 billion (19.6 percent of total imports). The following charts illustrate the distribution of commodity exports by degree of processing and imports by degree of use during FY 2016/17. US$ bn Chart (2): Oil & Non- oil Exports and Imports Fiscal Years 2014/ / /2017 oil exports non-oil exports oil imports non-oil imports Trade balance

8 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 2 Fuel, mineral oils & products 31.2% Chart (3): Proceeds of Merchandise Exports US$ 21.7 bn Raw materials 7.6 % Semifinished goods 18.5% Finished goods 42.7% Asian Countries (Non-Arab) 18.8% Chart (6) : Imports by Geographical Distribution FY 2016/2017 African Countries (Non-Arab) 1.4% Arab Countries 19.1% Australia & Other Countries 13.2% USA 5.1% EU 27.8% Russian Federation & C.I.S 7.5% Other EU Countries 7.1% Fuel, mineral oils & products 20.2% Chart (4): Payments for Merchandise Imports Raw materials 10.8% US$ 57.1 bn, of which Intermediate goods 27.6% Investment goods 15.4% Consumer goods 22.1% Hereunder is the geographical distribution of merchandise exports and imports: Chart (5) : Exports by Geographical Distribution FY 2016/2017 Asian Countries (Non-Arab) 8.2% African Countries (Non-Arab) 2.4% Arab Countries 29.6% Australia & Other Countries 10.2% USA 8.3% EU 32.4% Russian Federation &C.I.S 1.0% Other EU Countries 7.9% - Egypt's main trade partners, in terms of exports, were UAE, Italy, USA, UK, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Germany, Switzerland, Spain and India. These countries combined, accounted for some 60.0 percent of total exports. - As for imports, Egypt's trade partners were China, USA, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Germany, Russia, Italy, Switzerland, UK, Turkey, France and Qatar. These countries combined, accounted for some 52.0 percent of total imports. 1.2: Services Balance The services surplus increased to about US$ 6.8 billion (against about US$ 6.5 billion) as services receipts rose in spite of the increase in services payments, as follows: US$ bn Chart (7) : Services Balance Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2015/ /2017 Services Receipts Services Payments Services Balance 1.2.1: Services receipts increased by 3.2 percent, to some US$ 16.6 billion (against about US$ 16.1 billion), driven by the increase in the following items: Tourism revenues by 16.2 percent to US$ 4.4 billion (against US$ 3.8 billion).

9 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 3 It is noteworthy that tourism revenues registered increases of percent and percent in January/March and April/June 2017, in order, after falling by 56.1 percent and 15.8 percent in July/September and October/ December (see Box 4) Government services receipts by percent to US$ million (against US$ million). On the other hand, Transportation receipts decreased by 4.5 percent to about US$ 9.1 billion (against some US$ 9.5 billion), due to the fall in Suez Canal dues to about US$ 4.9 billion (against some US$ 5.1 billion), which decreased, in turn, as a result of the 1.9 percent fall of SDR against the US dollar, although the net tonnage increased by 0.8 percent. Another contributing factor was, the fall in the receipts of Egyptian airlines and navigation companies. Other services receipts decreased by 2.8 percent to about US$ 2.3 billion (against about US$ 2.4 billion), due to the fall in the fees of communication services, commissions of agencies and insurance services. US$ bn Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2015/ /2017 Other Services Balance Government Services Balance Tourism Services Balance Services Balance Chart (8): Services Balances Transportation Services Balance 1.2.2: Services payments rose by 2.5 percent, to about US$ 9.8 billion (against about US$ 9.5 billion), driven by the increase in the following items: Other services payments by 37.5 percent, to about US$ 4.6 billion (against about US$ 3.3 billion), driven by the amounts transferred abroad by foreign petroleum companies, higher payments of computer services, subscription to magazines & newspapers, and communication services. Government services payments by 44.7 percent to US$ 1.1 billion (against US$ million). On the other hand, Travel payments fell by 33.0 percent to some US$ 2.7 billion (against about US$ 4.1 billion), due to the decline of e-card payments by 34.2 percent to US$ 1.6 billion (against US$ 2.5 billion), as well as the decrease in pilgrimage (Hajj & Umrah) expenses. Transportation payments fell by 0.5 percent, to US$ 1.33 billion (against about US$ 1.34 billion), due to the decline in the amounts transferred for repairs of aircrafts and ships at foreign airports and ports. 1.3: Income Balance Investment income balance ran a deficit of US$ 4.4 billion in FY 2016/2017, primarily because investment income payments registered US$ 4.9 billion (64.3 percent of which were profit transfers by oil and non-oil foreign companies

10 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 4 operating in Egypt. In contrast, investment income receipts registered a modest figure of US$ million. Chart (9): Income Balance US$ bn Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1.4: Unrequited current transfers (Net) As shown in chart (10), unrequited current transfers (net) inched up by 4.1 percent, to register US$ 17.5 billion (versus US$ 16.8 billion), due mainly to the increase in net private transfers from US$ 16.7 billion to US$ 17.3 billion, supported by the increase in workers remittances to US$ 17.5 billion (from US$ 17.1 billion a year earlier). Also, the net official transfers rose to US$ million (from US$ million). US$ bn / /2017 Income Receipts Income Balance Income Payments Against this background, some of the external balance indicators changed as shown in chart (11). % Chart (10) : Remittances of Egyptians Working Abroad Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q / /2017 Chart (11): External Balance Indicators FIscal Year Capital and Financial Account The capital and financial account recorded a net inflow of about US$ 29.0 billion in FY 2016/2017 (against some US$ 21.2 billion), as an outcome of: A- Total FDI inflows rose by 6.5 percent to US$ 13.3 billion (from US$ 12.5 billion), while total outflows recorded US$ 5.4 billion against US$ 5.6 billion. Accordingly, net inflows of FDI in Egypt rose to US$ 7.9 billion, against US$ 6.9 billion, as a direct result of the US$ 2.3 billion rise in net inflows for oil sector investments, to post US$ 4.0 billion (against US$ 1.7 billion). The sectorial breakdown of total FDI inflows as depicted in chart (12) shows that the oil sector has the biggest share of 61.2 percent. As for the other sectors, the majority of FDI went to the services sectors, with 9.5 percent distributed as follows: the real estate sector (3.1 percent), the financial sector (1.7 percent), the tourism sector (0.4 percent), the communication and information technology (0.3 percent), and other services sectors (4.0 percent). The share of the manufacturing sector was 5.8 percent, the construction sector was 0.9 percent, and the agricultural sector was 0.2 percent. The remaining portion was acquired by undistributed sectors. 0 Current Receipts / Current Payments Services Receipts / Services Payments 2015/ /2017 Merchandise Exports / Merchandise Imports

11 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 5 Chart (12): Total FDI in Egypt by Economic Sector FY 2016/2017 Agricultural sector 0.2% Construction sector 0.9% Manufacturing sector 5.8% Undistributed sector 22.4% Real Estate sector 3.1% Petroleum sector 61.2% Services sector 9.5% Financial sector 1.7% Tourism sector 0.4% Communication sector 0.3% Other services 4.0% B- Portfolio investment in Egypt augmented in FY 2016/2017 and unfolded, as such, a net inflow of US$ 16.0 billion (against a net outflow of US$ 1.3 billion). This was ascribed to the rise in foreigners' investments in Egyptian TBs, recording net purchases of US$ 10.0 billion. Moreover, the Egyptian government floated bonds in international markets, during the period following the liberalization of the exchange rate, where foreigners' investments accounted for US$ 6.8 billion. In addition, foreigners' investments on the Egyptian Exchange (EGX) rose in FY 2016/2017, to register net purchases of US$ million (against US$ million). C- Medium- and long-term loans and facilities achieved net disbursements of about US$ 5.6 billion (against US$ 1.3 billion). D- Short-term suppliers' credit realized net drawings of about US$ 2.1 billion (against about US$ 5.8 billion). E- Other assets and liabilities achieved a net outflow of US$ 2.5 billion (against a net inflow of US$ 8.5 billion). This came on the back of the rise in banks' foreign assets and foreign currency resources immediately after the liberalization of the exchange rate. As such, banks' foreign assets rose by US$ 9.5 billion, and their foreign liabilities by only US$ 1.4 billion.

12 Section II Tourism Sector Performance

13 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 7 Tourism Sector Performance during 2016/2017: The data accumulated for the year 2016/2017 point to a drop in tourist arrivals and nights. However, it shows a hike in receipts when compared with the previous year levels. Average expenditure per night* increased from US$ 74.3/night in the previous year to US$ 85.3/night in 2016/2017. Tourism Sector Performance during Q4 2016/2017: According to the balance of payments data during Q4 2016/17, tourism receipts recorded an increase of US$ million or 200 percent to US$ 1539 million compared with same period last year. This is due to the percent increase in the average expenditure per night, in addition to the increase in the average nights spent by percent. Egypt's tourism sector activity witnessed a moderate increase Q-over- Q. In the fourth quarter of 2016/17, number of tourist arrivals witnessed a 4.9 percent increase, while tourist nights increased by 22.5 percent. On the other hand, the average expenditure per night stayed the same at US$ 88.2/night. Data shows an increase in the number of average tourist nights (9.8 nights per person, compared to 8.4 nights per person). Tourists coming from African countries and the Americas headed the list in terms of the length of stay per visitor (13.2 and 12.4 nights per visitor, respectively). Hotel Sector Performance: As regards hotel sector performance and its regional comparison during first nine months of 2017, Cairo hotels experienced a noticeable increase in terms of "revenue per available room", and "occupancy rate". (Table 2) * Average expenditure per tourist night equals to tourism receipts divided by tourist nights. Summary Tourism Market Diversification: According to the number of tourist arrivals over the 1989/ /17 period, Egypt's tourism market witnesssed a shift from diversification towards concentration in favor of European region, as the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) reached 0.6 in 2014/15. However, the index then fell down this year reaching 0.35 indicating more diversity. This draws attention to the fact that necessary steps should be taken towards a more diversified tourism market to be able to mitigate any future demand shocks. Nevertheless, Egypt's market is still more diversified when compared to some neighboring countries in the MENA region. (See Box 4, Appendix III). A- Tourism Sector Performance: Ministry of Tourism figures show that a total of 1,823 thousand tourists came from all over the world and spent 17,449 thousand nights in Q4 of 2016/2017, with an increase of 53.7 percent in the number of tourist arrivals and an increase of percent in the number of nights, compared with the same period of the previous year. The increase in tourist arrivals resulted from more visitors coming from the European countries (75.11 percent of total increase), Middle East region (12.61 percent), Asia and the Pacific region (6.2 percent) and the Americas (3.18 percent). Meanwhile, the number of arrivals from African countries decreased by 2.71 percent.

14 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 8 Moreover, the average expenditure per night increased from US$ 76.8/night in Q4 of 2015/2016 to US$ 88.2/night in Q4 2016/2017 (table 1, line 7). Matrooh reached 41.3 percent during Q4 of 2016/2017, against 28.0 percent in Q4 a year earlier, indicating a boost in the sector (table 1, line 9). The following chart shows that the average occupancy rate at Egyptian hotels was an outcome of its trends in key cities. Major cities, headed by Cairo and Hurghada registered the largest increase in hotel occupancy rates, and to a lesser extent, came Sharm El-Sheikh when compared to Q4 of 2015/2016. The positive growth in the number of tourist nights (22.5 percent), was behind the increase in tourism receipts by US$ million or 22.5 percent to US$ 1539 million Q-over-Q in the fourth quarter of 2016/17 (table 1, line 1). During Q4 of 2016/2017, data show that visitors stayed more nights, registering an average of 9.8 nights per person, compared to 5.8 nights per person in the corresponding quarter a year earlier (table 1, line 6). Tourists coming from African countries headed the list in terms of the length of stay per visitor with an average of 13.2 nights. The Americas were the runner up with 12.4 nights/visitor, followed by Middle East countries (10.9 nights/visitor), the European countries (9 nights/ visitor), and the Asia and Pacific region (7.6 nights/visitor). B- Hotel Sector Performance: According to the Ministry of Tourism data, the average occupancy rate at hotels in Sharm El-Shiekh, Hurgada, Luxor, Aswan, Cairo, Alexandria, North Coast and Marsa In order to make a sound judgment on hotel sector financial performance over the time and across key Arab cities, one should combine occupancy rate with revenue per available room (RevPAR) 1. Table 2 shows an increase of 91.8 percent on average RevPAR for Cairo, during the first nine months of The revenue per available room provides a convenient snapshot of how well a hotel is filling its rooms, as well as how much it is able to charge. As a matter of fact, there is a sharp increase in RevPAR first nine months of 2017, as compared to the same period of the previous year. Hotels' revenue-peravailable-room at Cairo City increased to reach US$157. As to regional comparison, table 2 shows that only Jeddah (Saudi Arabia), Doha (Qatar), Amman (Jordan), and Abu Dhabi (UAE) experienced negative results in the two key performance metrics, while Cairo (Egypt) hotels witnessed positive results. 1 It can be calculated using the following two ways; (i) Total room revenue in a given period, net of discounts, sales tax, and meals, divided by the number of available rooms in same period. (ii) Average daily room rate multiplied by occupancy rate.

15 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 9 Table (1): Indicators of Tourism Activity 2014/ / / / / /17 Q4 Q4 Q3 Q4 1. Tourism Receipts (USD mn) 7,370 3,768 4,380 1, ,257 1, Stay-over Visitors (x 1.000) 10,243 6,875 6,623 2,639 1,186 1,738 1, Market Shares (% of Tourist Arrivals) a. European Countries b. Middle East Countries c. African Countries d. Americas e. Asia & Pacific f. Other Countries Market Shares (% of Tourist Nights) a. European Countries b. Middle East Countries c. African Countries d. Americas e. Asia & Pacific f. Other Countries Visitor Nights (x 1.000) 99,246 51,779 50,897 25,857 6,645 14,248 17, Average Nights Spent (per Visitor) Receipts per Visitor Nights (USD/night) The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index Average Occupancy Rate Luxor Aswan Sharm El-Sheikh Hurgada Cairo Alexandria Contribution to Current Receipts % Sources: CBE, MOT, and CAPMAS. Table (2): Hotels' Performance in Key Arab Cities in First Nine Months of 2017 Country Occupancy Rate Change (%) RevPAR (US$) Change (%) Cairo (Egypt) Manama (Bahrain) Amman (Jordan) Kuwait (Kuwait) Beirut (Lebanon) Doha (Qatar) Jeddah (Saudi Arabia) Abu Dhabi (UAE) Source: Ernst & Young benchmark survey of Middle East hotel sector.

16 Section III International Investment Position (IIP)

17 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 11 International Investment Position (IIP) At end of June 2017* Egypt s IIP at end of June 2017, recorded net external liabilities (assets minus liabilities) of about US$ billion, up by 15.4 percent compared to end of June As such, Egypt s foreign assets represented about 33.6 percent of its foreign liabilities. US$ billion Chart (1) International Investment Position (IIP) End of Q3 Q4 Q1 Q Assets Liabilities Net IIP Source: Appendix I, table (2). Egypt's preliminary IIP data at end of June 2017 showed an increase in both Egypt's total assets and liabilities compared to the position at end of June 2016, to record net liabilities of about US$ billion versus US$ billion. Assets and Liabilities by Component: 1- Assets increased by 56.2 percent to reach US$ 66.4 billion at end of June 2017, from US$ 42.5 billion at end of June Chart (2) Breakdown of Assets by Component Reserve assets 46.2% Assets June 2017 Direct investment abroad 11.0% Other investment 40.2% Portfolio investment assets 2.6% This increase was mainly due to the following developments: - Reserve assets increased by 79.3 percent to about US$ 30.7 billion. - Other investments' assets increased by about 57.2 percent, to reach about US$ 26.7 billion. - Foreign direct investment increased by 2.5 percent to about US$ 7.3 billion. * Released as of September 2009 according to SDDS requirements.

18 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 12 - Portfolio investment abroad increased by 35.4 percent to about US$ 1.7 billion. 2- Liabilities to non-residents increased by 26.5 percent to about US$ billion at end of June Chart (3) Breakdown of Liabilities by Component Other investment 35.5% Portfolio investment 10.8% Liabilities June 2017 Direct investment in Egypt 53.7% This increase was mainly due to the following developments: - FDI in Egypt increased by 8.0 percent to about US$ billion. - Other investments' liabilities increased by 34.0 percent to about US$ 70.0 billion. - Portfolio investment in Egypt increased by percent to about US$ 21.4 billion. Indicators: - Egypt s negative net IIP to GDP at end of June 2017 increased to about 55.8 percent, versus about 33.8 percent at end of June % - Assets to liabilities increased from about 27.2 percent, to about 33.6 percent at end of June % Chart (4) Egypt's net IIP to GDP at End of Chart (5) Egypt's IIP Assets/Liabilities End of Q3 Q4 Q1 Q Assets / Liabilities Q3 Q4 Q1 Q Net IIP / GDP

19 Section IV External Liquidity

20 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 13 A-Net International Reserves (NIR) In order to quell any distortions in the domestic foreign currency market, the CBE announced on November 3, 2016 its decision to move, with immediate effect, to a liberalized exchange rate regime. This move would improve the deepening of foreign currency liquidity, while streamlining activity into the formal channels. Furthermore, the CBE decided to abolish the maximum limits of foreign currency transfers by banks customers as of June During FY 2016/2017, NIR increased by around US$ 13.8 billion (against a decline of US$ 2.5 billion a year earlier) to reach US$ 31.3 billion, thus covering 6.6 months of merchandise imports at end of June Chart (1): NIR & Months of Imports Covered External Liquidity During the Report s preparation, NIR reached US$ 36.5 billion at end of September End of June 2016 (US$ mn) June 2017 Net International Reserves (1-2) Gross Official Reserves Gold SDRs Foreign Currencies Loans to IMF Reserve Liabilities 24 2 Reserves/Months of Imports B- Net Foreign Assets of Banks (NFA) Banks net foreign assets increased by around US$ 8.0 billion during FY 2016/2017 (against a decline of about US$ 8.3 billion a year earlier). (US$ bn) 35.0 (Balance at End of the Month) (Month) 7.0 Chart (2): Foreign Assets & Liabilities of Banks (End of the Month) (US$ bn) 20.0 Assets Liabilities June 2014 June 2015 June 2016 June Foreign Currencies Loans to IMF Gold Reserves/Months of Imports 5.0 The increase in NIR was mainly a result of the rise in foreign currencies by just US$ 13.8 billion. 0.0 June 2014 June 2015 June 2016 June 2017

21 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 14 Foreign currency deposits with banks increased by 5.3 percent during the period concerned, reaching about US$ 38.5 billion at end of June Likewise, local currency deposits increased by 26.8 percent. As such, the ratio of foreign currency deposits to total deposits made up 27.8 percent at end of June (LE bn) Chart (3) : Developments in Deposits by Local and Foreign Currencies (End of the Month) (%) June 2014 June 2015 June 2016 June Foreign Currency Deposits Local Currency Deposits Growth Rate of Foreign Currency Deposits Growth Rate of Local Currency Deposits

22 Section V External Debt

23 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 15 External debt of all maturities increased by US$ 23.3 billion (41.7 percent), to post about US$ 79.0 billion at end of June 2017 (compared with about US$ 55.8 billion at end of June 2016). This increase came as a result of the rise in net disbursements of loans and facilities by US$ 23.6 billion, and the depreciation of most currencies of borrowing versus the US dollar by US$ 0.3 billion. External Debt By residual maturity 1, medium- and long-term external debt decreased, as it represented 73.4 percent of the total debt. In comparison, they accounted for 84.5 percent of the total by original maturity. Similarly, shortterm debt showed an increase, as it represented 26.6 percent, compared to 15.5 percent classified by original maturity. A- Breakdown by Maturity By original maturity, external debt reaffirmed its usual pattern of longterm external debt predominance at end of June Long-term external debt accounted for US$ 48.7 billion or 61.7 percent of the total, whereas medium-term external debt reached US$ 18.0 billion or 22.8 percent and short-term external debt accounted for the smallest portion of US$ 12.3 billion or 15.5 percent. External Debt by Residual Maturity at end of June 2017 (US$ million) 1. Short-term debt by original maturity Medium- & long-term debt maturing within one year External debt by residual maturity up to 1 year (1+2) Percentage to total external debt 26.6% Percentage to NIR 67.1% 4. Medium- & long-term debt by residual maturity Percentage to total external debt 73.4% Chart (1) External Debt Structure by Original Maturity End of June 2017 Short -term debt 15.5 % Medium - term debt 22.8 % Long -term debt 61.7 % 1 While the analytical presentation of external debt by original maturity is the norm recommended in the External Debt Statistics Guide, residual maturity presentation still draws significant attention. In other words, compilation of external debt statistics based on original maturity helps in understanding the nature of capital flows; while the remaining maturity provides a profile of debt service payments, especially those falling due in the near term, and of potential liquidity risks facing the economy. Short-term debt by residual maturity comprises all components of short-term debt with original maturity of up to one year, and the amounts falling due under medium- and longterm debt by original maturity within one year or less.

24 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 16 B- Breakdown by Type Medium- and long-term external debt accounted for 84.5 percent of total debt, of which: Rescheduled bilateral debt reached about US$ 4.3 billion or 5.4 percent of total debt. Other bilateral * debt amounted to about US$ 6.6 billion or 8.3 percent. Buyers' & Suppliers' credit reached about US$ 6.5 billion or 8.2 percent of total debt. International and regional organizations' debt reached about US$ 21.7 billion or 27.5 percent of total debt. Government bonds and notes reached about US$ 9.0 billion or 11.4 percent of total debt at end of June 2017 against US$ 3.5 billion at end of June These include: (i) US$ million of sovereign notes issued in April 2010 and falling due in 2020 & 2040, (ii) US$ 1.2 billion of the Global Medium Term Notes (GMTN) issued in 2015 and falling due in June 2025; and (iii) US$ 6.8 billion of the Global Medium Term Notes programme issued in 2017 and falling due in 2022, 2027 & Long-term deposits that have been placed at the CBE by some Arab countries posted US$ 18.5 billion (23.5 percent of total debt). Non-guaranteed medium- and long-term debt of the private sector registered US$ million (about 0.2 percent of total debt). Short-term debt increased by about US$ 5.2 billion to about US$ 12.3 billion or 15.5 percent of total debt. Rescheduled bilateral debt 5.4% Private sector (non guaranteed) 0.2% International & regional organizations 27.5% Chart (2) External Debt Structure End of June 2017 Long Term deposits 23.5% Short term debt 15.5% Suppliers' & buyers' credits 8.2% Other bilateral debt 8.3% Egyptian bonds and notes 11.4% C- Breakdown by Currency Measuring the currency composition of Egypt's external debt is an important indicator that sheds light on the external debt exposure, arising from currency markets' volatility. A breakdown of the currency composition of external debt indicates that the US dollar is the main borrowing currency, with a relative importance of 69.9 percent of the total. This upward biased share of US dollar largely reflects the fact that there are other outstanding obligations in US dollar to creditors other than the USA (such as the African Development Bank (AFDB) and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD). Including the Liquidity Support Facility (LSF) from China Development Bank (CDB) to CBE.

25 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 17 Other important currencies accounted for 28.9 percent of the total debt, as follows: the Euro is the runner-up (12.6 percent), followed by the Special Drawing Rights * (7.0 percent, the Chinese Yuan (3.4 percent), the Kuwaiti dinar (3.0 percent) and the Japanese yen 2.9 percent). Kuwaiti dinar 3.0% chinese yuan 3.4% SDRs 7.0% Chart (3) External Debt Structure by Currencies End of June 2017 Euro 12.6% Japanese yen 2.9% Other currencies 1.2% US dollar 69.9% D- Breakdown by Creditor Distribution by creditor country indicates that 28.2 percent was owed to Arab countries (mainly Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Kuwait), and that 27.5 percent was owed to international organizations ** (mainly the World Bank 9.5 percent & IMF 5.0 percent, ADF & AFDB 3.4 percent and EIB 2.9 percent). Meanwhile, 24.8 percent of Egypt's external debt with a value of US$ 19.6 million came from six countries; namely Germany (8.0 percent), China (6.0 percent), Japan (2.8 percent), USA (2.0 percent), UK (4.3 percent), and France (1.7 percent). E- Breakdown by Debtor The structure of Egypt s external debt by debtor reveals that the central and local government is the main debtor, with a share of US$ 34.9 billion at end of June Monetary authority's external debt increased by US$ 8.2 billion to US$ 30.3 billion at end of June Other sectors' debt increased by US$ 4.6 billion to US$ 9.7 billion. - Banks' external debt increased by US$ 0.1 billion to US$ 4.1 billion International & regional organizations 27.5% (US$ bn) Chart (5) External Debt by Debtor End of June Central & Local Government Banks Arab Countries 28.2% Chart (4) External Debt by Creditor End of June 2017 Egyptian bonds and notes 11.4% France 1.7% Other countries 8.1% Monetary Authority Other Sectors United Kingdom 4.3% USA 2.0% Japan 2.8% China 6.0% Germany 8.0% Including Egypt s allocation of SDRs by the IMF. International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), European Investment Bank (EIB), African Development Fund (ADF), and African Development Bank (AfDB).

26 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 18 F- External Debt Indicators* The ratio of short-term external debt to net international reserves decreased to 39.2 percent at end of June 2017 (from 40.0 percent at end of June 2016). In addition, its ratio to total debt registered 15.5 percent (against 12.6 percent). As for the external debt in terms of international comparison, the debt is within manageable limits. Based on IMF classification **, comparing Egypt's key debt indicators with those of other regional country groups shows that: - Egypt's debt stock to GDP (33.6 percent) at end of June 2017 (61.9 percent for Emerging and Developing Europe and 18.1 percent for Emerging and Developing Asia). Debt service reached US$ 7.3 billion during the FY 2016/2017 (US$ 6.1 billion for principal repayments and US$ 1.2 billion for interest payments) % Chart (6) External Debt Indicators End of June Government External Debt / External Debt External Debt /GDP Short-term Debt / Net International Reserves Short-term Debt / Total External Debt 25 % During the Fiscal Year - Egypt's short-term external debt to total external debt at end of June 2017 represented 15.5 percent (39.4 percent for Emerging and Developing Asia and 8.3 percent for Commonwealth of Independent States). - Egypt's debt-service ratio *** registered 18.8 percent during the FY 2016/2017 (51.4 percent for East and Central Europe, and 28.6 percent for Middle East and North Africa). * For more indicators, refer to appendix I, table No. 6. ** Source: World & Regional Economic Outlook Reports, Oct. 2017, and CBE database. *** Debt-Service Ratio: The ratio of debt service (interest and principal payments due) during a year, expressed as a percentage of exports (typically of goods and services) for that year. This ratio is considered to be a key indicator of a country s debt burden / / /2017 Debt Service / Current Receipts (including transfers) Debt Service / Exports of Goods and Services

27 Section VI Exchange Rate Developments

28 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 19 Exchange Rate Developments The period covered by the Report has witnessed the liberalization of the Egyptian pound; a daring decision taken by CBE on 3 November 2016, with a view to giving banks more flexibility in pricing their currency trade operations, which aims to keep the hard cash within the official market and eliminate the parallel market. The decision comes in line with the economic reform program that enables the Egyptian economy to face current economic challenges, unleash its capabilities, and achieve the desired growth and operation rates, by combining and adapting to the present capabilities and utilizing the full range of Egypt s human, natural, and material resources. (i) Inter-bank Rate 1 : During FY 2016/2017, the exchange rates of foreign currencies appreciated against the Egyptian pound, on the back of the CBE's decision of liberalization of the EGP. The weighted average of the US dollar in the Egyptian interbank market recorded LE at end of June 2017, (against LE at end of June 2016). (ii) Market Rate: At end of June 2017, according to the foreign exchange market (buying price) and after the decision of liberalization of Egyptian pound exchange rate in November 2016, all foreign currencies rose against the Egyptian pound. To illustrate, the euro increased by percent, Swiss franc by percent, the US dollar & Saudi riyal increased by percent each, the UAE dirham increased by percent, Kuwaiti dinar by percent, Chinese yuan by 98.9 percent, Sterling pound by 94.5 percent, and the Japanese yen (100 yens) by 86.7 percent. EGP Chart (1) : Exchange Rate of USD & Euro against EGP (End of Period) Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun / /2017 USD Interbank rate(average) USD market rate(buying price) Euro market rate(buying price) (Right axis) 1 The inter-bank foreign exchange market was launched in Egypt in December 2004.

29 Section VII Statistics

30 Central Bank of Egypt External Position Appendix I Table Page I- Balance of Payments BOP Current Account BOP Capital and Financial Account (contd.). 24 II- International Investment Position (IIP) 2 25 III- Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS) 3 26 IV- External Liquidity NIR & NFA at Banks V- External Debt External Debt by Type External Debt Indicators. External Debt by Debtor. VI- Exchange Rate Developments Foreign Exchange Rates

31 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 23 Table (1) Balance of Payments (US$ mn) Fiscal Year 2015/2016* 2016/2017* Trade Balance Exports** Petroleum Other Exports Imports** Petroleum Other Imports Services Balance(Net) Receipts Transportation of which: Suez Canal Travel Government receipts Other Payments Transportation Travel Government Expenditures Other Income Balance(Net) Income receipts Income payments of which: Interest paid Transfers (Net) Private Transfers (Net) of which: Workers' Remittances Official Transfers (Net) Current Account Balance

32 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 24 Table (1) Balance of Payments (contd.) (US$ mn) 2015/2016* 2016/2017* Capital & Financial Account Capital Account Financial Account Direct Investment Abroad Direct Investment in Egypt (Net) Portfolio Investment Abroad (Net) Portfolio Investment in Egypt (Net) of which: Bonds Other Investment (Net) Net Borrowing M&L-Term Loans (Net) Drawings Repayments MT-Suppliers' Credit (Net) Drawings Repayments ST-Suppliers' Credit (Net) Other Assets Central Bank Banks Other Other Liabilities Central Bank Banks Net Errors & Omissions Overall Balance Change in CBE Reserve Assets,Increase(-) * Preliminary. ** Include free zones exports and imports. Fiscal Year

33 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 25 Table (2) International Investment Position (IIP) (US$ millions) End of June 2016 June 2017* Assets Liabilities Assets Liabilities Total Direct investment Portfolio investments Equity security Debt security Other investments Trade credits General government Long-term Short-term Other sectors Long-term Short-term Loans Monetary authorities Use of Fund credit & loans from the Fund Other long-term Short-term General government Long-term Short-term Banks Long-term Short-term Other sectors Long-term Short-term Currency and deposits Monetary authorities Long-term Short-term General government Long-term Short-term Banks Long-term Short-term Other sectors Long-term Short-term Other assets / Liabilities Monetary authorities Long-term Short-term General government Banks Other sectors 4-Reserves assets * Preliminary.

34 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 26 Table (3) Egypt's Coordinated Portofolio Investement Survey (CPIS) at end of June 2017 Breakdown of portfolio investment Assets by country of residence of the Issuers (US$ millions) Country of non-resident issuers Equities long-term debt securities short-term debt securities Total Bahamas Bahrain Barzil Canada China, P.R. Mainland Ethiopia France Germany India Indonesia Italy Japan Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Luxembourg Malaysia Malta Netherland Nigeria Qatar Saudi Arabia Singapore Spain Syrian Arab Republic Sudan Sweden Switzerland Tunisia Turkey United Arab Emirates United Kingdom United States International Organizations Total

35 Table (4) Net International Reserves & Net Foreign Assets at Banks (US$ mn) End of June Net International Reserves (1-2) Gross Official Reserves Gold SDRs Foreign Currencies Loans to IMF Reserve Liabilities Banks' Net Foreign Assets Central Bank of Egypt - External Position Assets Liabilities

36 End of June Total External Debt* Medium & Long term debt : Rescheduled bilateral debt ** ODA Non-ODA Other bilateral debt Paris Club countries Other countries International & regional Organizations Suppliers' & buyers' credits Egyptian bonds and notes Long- term deposits Private sector debt (non-guaranteed) Short-term debt Deposits Other short-term facilities Source: Central Bank of Egypt. + Provisional ++ Liquidity Support Facility (LSF) has been moved to Other bilateral debt to other countries instead of suppliers' & buyers' credit. * The difference from World Bank data is in short-term debt. Table (5) External Debt by Type ** According to the agreement signed with Paris Club countries on May 25, (US$ mn) Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 28

37 Table (6) External Debt Indicators (%) FY 2012/ / / / /17 + External Debt /GDP** (at current market prices) External Debt / Exports (G & S) % Short-term Debt / External Debt Short-term Debt / Net International Reserves Debt Service * (Principal & Interest) (US$ mn.) Debt Service / Exports (G & S) % Debt Service / Current Receipts % Interest / Exports (G & S) % External Debt per capita (US$) Provisional * includes interest payments on US dollar-denominated bonds and notes holding by nonresedents ** GDP has been evaluated based on the average exchange rate of the US dollar against the the Egyptian pound during the fiscal year, according to the international standards. Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 29

38 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 30 Table (7) External Debt by Debtor (US$ mn) End of June 2016 % June 2017 * % Change (-) % External Debt Total Medium- & Long-Term Total Short-Term Central & Local Government Medium- & Long-Term Bonds & Notes Loans Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities Short-Term Money Market Instruments Loans Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities Monetary Authority Medium- & Long-Term Bonds & Notes Loans Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities (7.5) (0.6) Short-Term , Money Market Instruments Loans Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities Banks Medium- & Long-Term Loans Bonds & Notes Loans Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities Short-Term Loans (860.9) (45.0) Money Market Instruments Loans (354.4) (81.6) Currency and Deposits (506.5) (34.3) Other Liabilities Other Sectors Medium- & Long-Term Loans from Direct Investors Bonds & Notes Trade Credits Loans Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities Short-Term Loans from Direct Investors Money Market Instruments Trade Credits Loans Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities * Provisional.

39 First: Interbank Rates * Minimum Maximum Weighted average Second : Market Rates Buy Sell Buy Sell US Dollar Euro Pound Sterling Swiss Franc Japanese Yens Saudi Riyal Kuwaiti Dinar UAE Dirham Chinese Yuan Source: CBE daily exchange rates. Table (8) Foreign Exchange Rates (In LE per foreign currency unit ) * The interbank rates were launched on December 23, End of June 2016 June Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 31

40 Central Bank of Egypt External Position I- Outstanding External Debt Appendix II Table Outstanding Stock Outstanding Stock by Creditor Country Medium- and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt By Creditor: a. Paris Club Debt 3 39 (1) Rescheduled Debt 4 40 (2) Non-Rescheduled Debt b. Supplier's Credit c. Non- Paris Club Debt d. Multilateral Institutions 8 45 e. Bonds & Notes f. Deposits Medium- and Long-Term Private Sector Non-Guaranteed External Debt by Creditor Country Short-Term External Debt II- Outstanding External Debt By Currency III- Disbursed and Undisbursed Amounts for Signed Loans & Deposits IV- Projected Medium- and Long-Term External Debt Service 1- External Debt Service Public and Publicly Guaranteed a- Paris Club Debt (1) Rescheduled Debt (2) Non-Rescheduled Debt b- Suppliers' Credit c- Non- Paris Club Debt d- Multilateral Institutions Sovereign Notes Global Medium Term Notes (GMTN) Global Medium Term Notes Programme Global Medium Term Notes Programme Global Medium Term Notes Programme Global Medium Term Notes Programme Global Medium Term Notes Programme Global Medium Term Notes Programme Medium- and Long-Term Deposits for Kuwait Medium- and Long-Term Deposits for Libya Medium- and Long-Term Deposits for Saudi Arabia Medium- and Long-Term Deposits for United Arab Emirates V- Projected Short-Term Debt VI- Exchange Rates of the Currencies of External Debt Versus US Dollar Page

41 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 35 Table ( 1 ) (US$ million) Total Debt Medium-and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed Debt 42, , , , A. Paris Club Debt 12, , , , Rescheduled Debt 8, , , , Non Rescheduled Debt 4, , , , B- Supplier's Credit C. Non-Paris Club Debt 2, , , , D. Multilateral Institutions 12, , , , (1) E. Bonds &Notes 6, , , , Guaranteed Notes 1, , Sovereign Notes Saudi Bond Euro-Medium Term Notes ( E.M.T.N.) 3, , , Global Medium Term Notes ( G.M.T.N.) (2) , , , Global Medium Term Notes Programme (3) , F. Deposits 9, , , , (4) 2- Medium and Long-Term Private Sector Non-Guaranteed Short-Term Debt 3, , , , Currency and Deposits (Non-Residents) , , , (5) Trade Credits 2, , , , Qatar Deposits Loans , (6) Grand Total 46, , , , Using end of period exchange rate. (1) Includes US$ 2, million representing extended fund facility by IMF (amounted SDR million), US$ 1, million representing SDR allocation by IMF to its member countries, Egypt s share is SDR million. (2) Representing Global Medium Term Notes ( G.M.T.N.) with nominal value US$ 1500 million ( non-residents' subscriptions amounted US$ 1203 million ). (3) Representing Global Medium Term Notes Programme with nominal value US$ 7,000 million (non-residents' subscriptions amounted US$ 6, million). (4) Representing Saudi, Libya, United Arab Emirates & Kuwait deposits amounted to US$ 7600, 1000, and 4000 million respectively. (5) Includes US$ million representing Chinese Currency Swap Arrangement. (6) Includes US$ 5,200 million representing African Export-Import Bank loans amounted US$ 3,200 million and Repo Transaction amounted US$ 2,000 million Figure 1-1 Outstanding Stock as at End of June ( US$bn ) 85.5 External Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June

42 Figure 1-2 Figure 1-2 Non-Paris Club Debt 5.80% Deposits % Outstanding Stock as at End of June 2017 Private Sector Non-Guaranteed 0.20% Short-Term Debt 15.53% Supplier's Credit 0.01% Bonds & Notes % Paris Club Debt % Multilateral Institutions 27.52% Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 36

43 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 37 Table ( 2 ) Outstanding Stock as at End of June Total Debt (US$ million) (1) Creditor Countries Germany 3, , , , Japan 2, , , , China , , United States 2, , , , France 2, , , , Kuwait Italy United Arab Emirates Saudi Arabia United Kingdom Bahrain Spain Turkey 1, , Denmark Belgium Austria The Netherlands Canada Qatar Switzerland Finland Norway Sweden Australia Multilateral Institutions (2) 12, , , , Deposits, Bonds and Notes Deposits 9, , , , {(3) Saudi Arabia 3, , , , United Arab Emirates 2, , , , Kuwait 2, , , , Libya 2, , , , African Export-Import Bank Guaranteed Notes 1, , Sovereign Notes Saudi Bond Euro-Medium Term Notes ( E.M.T.N.) Global Medium Term Notes ( G.M.T.N.) , , , Global Medium Term Notes Programme , Medium and Long-Term Private Sector Non-Guaranteed Short-Term Debt 3, , , , African Export - Import Bank , , Arab Trade Financing Program REPO Transactions , Currency Swap Agreement (China) , others 3, , , , Grand Total 46, , , , (1) Using end of period exchange rate. (2) Includes US$ 2, million representing extended fund facility by IMF (amounted SDR million) and US$ 1, million representing SDR allocation by IMF to its member countries, Egypt s share is SDR million. (3) Representing Saudi, Libya, United Arab Emirates & Kuwait deposits amounted to US$ 7600, 1000, and 4000 million respectively.

44 Figure 2 Bonds &Notes 11.37% Japan 2.79% Outstanding Stock as at End of June 2017 Deposits 23.45% Germany 7.82% United States 1.89% France 1.50% Multilateral Institutions 27.52% Others 8.13% Short-Term Debt 15.53% Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 38

45 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 39 Table ( 3 ) (1) Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt By Creditor Country Paris Club Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June (US$ million) (2) Country Germany 3, , , , Japan 2, , , , United States 2, , , , France 2, , , , Italy United Kingdom Spain Denmark Belgium Austria The Netherlands Canada Switzerland Finland Norway Sweden Australia Grand Total 12, , , , (1) This table sums up tables 4 and 5. (2) Using end of period exchange rate. Figure 3 Total Debt Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Paris Club Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June 20.0 ( US$bn )

46 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 40 Table ( 4 ) Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt By Creditor Country Paris Club Debt Rescheduled Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June Country Total Debt (US$ million) (1) Germany 1, , , , Japan 1, , , , United States 1, , , , France 1, Spain The Netherlands Denmark Italy Canada Austria United Kingdom Switzerland Belgium Norway Sweden Australia Grand Total 8, , , , (1) Using end of period exchange rate. Figure 4 Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Paris Club Debt Rescheduled Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June 15.0 ( US$bn )

47 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 41 Table ( 5 ) Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt By Creditor Country Paris Club Debt Non-Rescheduled Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June Country (US$ million) (1) Total Debt Germany 1, , , , Japan , France Italy United States United Kingdom Spain Belgium Denmark Austria Switzerland Finland Sweden Grand Total 4, , , , (1) Using end of period exchange rate. Figure Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Paris Club Debt Non-Rescheduled Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June ( US$bn )

48 Figure 5-2 Non Rescheduled Debt 66.62% Medium and Long-Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Paris Club Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June 2017 Rescheduled Debt 33.38% Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 42

49 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 43 Table ( 6 ) Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt By Creditor Country Supplier's Credit Outstanding Stock as at End of June (US$ million) (1) Total Debt Country Canada Italy Japan Grand Total (1) Using end of period exchange rate. Figure Medium and Long-Term Public &Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Supplier's Credit Outstanding Stock as at End of June ( US$mn )

50 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 44 Table ( 7 ) Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt By Creditor Country Non-Paris Club Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June Country Total Debt (US$ million) (1) China , , {(2) Kuwait United Arab Emirates Saudi Arabia Bahrain Turkey 1, , Qatar Grand Total 2, , , , (1) Using end of period exchange rate. (2) Includes US$ 1000 million representing China facility agreement. Figure 7 5,000 4,000 Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Non-Paris Club Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June ( US$mn ) 3,000 2,000 1,

51 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 45 Table ( 8 ) Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Multilateral Institutions Outstanding Stock as at End of June Creditor Total Debt (US$ million) (1) IBRD 3, , , , IMF (2) 1, , , , African Development Bank 1, , , , European Investment Bank 1, , , , Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development 1, , , , Arab Monetary Fund African Export - Import Bank I.D.A. 1, Islamic Development Bank OPEC Fund International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation African Development Fund European Bank For Reconstruction and Development International Fund for Agricultural Development Arab Petroleum Investments Corporation (APICORP) Clean Technology Fund Islamic Corporation for Development Arab Trade Financing Program Grand Total 12, , , , (1) Using end of period exchange rate. (2) Includes SDR allocations by IMF to its member countries; Egypt s share is SDR MN. Figure ,000 20,000 Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Multilateral Institutions Outstanding Stock as at End of June ( US$mn ) 15,000 10,000 5,

52 Figure 8-2 AMF 4.04% African Development Bank 11.66% Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Multilateral Institutions Outstanding Stock as at End of June IMF 18.30% I.D.A 3.57% IBRD 34.53% European Investment Bank 10.43% Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development 6.50% Others 10.97% Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 46

53 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 47 Table ( 9) Bonds &Notes Outstanding Stock as at End of June Total Debt (US$ million) Guaranteed Notes 1, , Sovereign Notes Saudi Bond Euro-Medium Term Notes ( E.M.T.N.) 3, , , Global Medium Term Notes ( G.M.T.N.) , , , Global Medium Term Notes Programme , Grand Total 6, , , ,984.53

54 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 48 Table ( 10 ) Medium and Long-Term Deposits Outstanding Stock as at End of June Country Total Debt (US$ million) Saudi Arabia 3, , , , United Arab Emirates 2, , , , Kuwait 2, , , , Libya 2, , , , African Export-Import Bank Grand Total 9, , , ,537.40

55 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 49 Table ( 11 ) Medium and Long-Term Private Sector Non-Guaranteed External Debt By Creditor Country Outstanding Stock as at End of June Country Total Debt (US$ million) (1) Multilateral Institutions Germany Bahrain Grand Total (1) Using end of period exchange rate. Figure 9 Medium and Long-Term Private Sector Non-Guaranteed External Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June ( US$mn )

56 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 50 Table ( 12 ) Short-Term Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June (US$ million) (1) Total Debt Short-Term Debt Loans , {(2) Currency and Deposits (Non-Residents) , , , {(3) Trade Credits 2, , , , Qatar Deposits Grand Total 3, , , , (1) Using end of period exchange rate. (2) Includes US$ 5,200 million representing African Export-Import Bank loans amounted US$ 3,200 million and Repo Transaction amounted US$ 2,000 million. (3) Includes US$ 2, million representing Chinese Currency Swap Arrangement. Figure 10 14,000 Short-Term Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June 12,000 10,000 ( US$mn ) 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,

57 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 51 Table ( 13 ) Outstanding Stock as at End of June (US$ million) (*) Currency Total Debt US Dollar 28, , , , EURO 8, , , , Special Drawing Rights 2, , , , Chinese Yuan , Kuwaiti Dinar 2, , , , Japanese Yen 2, , , , Egyptian Pound Swiss Franc Saudi Riyal Danish Kroner Canadian Dollar U.A.E. Dirham British Pound Sterling Norwegian Kroner Swedish Kroner Australian Dollar Total 46, , , , (*) Using end of period exchange rate.

58 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 52 Table ( 14 ) Medium and Long-Term Disbursed and Undisbursed Amounts for Signed Loans and Deposit from 1/7/2014 to 30/6/2017 Signed Amount Disbursed Undisbursed 1- Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed Debt 36, , , A. Paris Club Debt 7, , , Non-Rescheduled Debt 7, , , B. Non-Paris Club Debt 5, , , C. Multilateral Institutions 12, , , D. Deposits 11, , Medium and Long-Term Private Sector Non-Guaranteed Debt Grand Total 36, , , (1) Using end of period exchange rate. Figure 12 14, , Medium and Long-Term Disbursed and Undisbursed Amounts for Signed Loans and Deposits from 1/7/2011 to 30/6/2017 (US$ million) (1) ( US$mn ) 10, , , , , Signed Loans and Deposit Disbursed Undisbursed

59 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 53 Period Principal Interest Total Period Principal Interest Total 2017/H2 (2) , /H /H1 (3) , /H /H2 (4) , /H /H1 (5) , /H /H2 (6) , /H /H1 (7) , /H /H , /H /H1 (8) , /H /H , /H1 (13) /H1 (9) , /H /H2 (10) , /H /H , /H /H , /H /H , /H /H , /H /H1 (11) , /H /H , /H /H , /H /H , /H /H1 (12) , /H /H /H /H /H /H /H1 (14) , /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H Grand Total 65, (15) 16, (16) 81, (1) The exchange rate of June 30, (2) Includes US$ million deposits maturing (3) Includes US$ million deposits maturing (4) Includes US$ million deposits maturing (5) Includes US$ 2433 million deposits maturing (6) Includes US$ 3100 million deposits maturing (7) Includes US$ million sovereign notes & US$ 2435 million deposits maturing (8) Includes US$ million deposits maturing (9) Includes US$ million Global Medium Term Notes Programme maturing (10) Includes US$ million deposits maturing Table ( 15 ) Projected Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service as of July 1, 2017 (11) Includes US$ million Global Medium Term Notes ( G.M.T.N.) maturing (12) Includes US$ million Global Medium Term Notes Programme maturing (13) Includes US$ million sovereign notes maturing (14) Includes US$ million Global Medium Term Notes Programme maturing (15) Excludes US$ million representing SDR allocation by IMF to its member countries, Egypt s share is SDR MN. (16) Includes US$ million representing forecast interest of SDR allocation. (US$ million) (1)

60 Figure 15 US$ mn 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Medium and Long-Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service as of July 1, 2017 Principal Interest Total Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 54

61 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 55 Table ( 16 ) Projected Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service Paris Club Debt as of July 1, 2017 Period Principal Interest Total Period Principal Interest Total 2017/H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H Grand Total 12, , , (1) The exchange rate of June 30, (US$ million) (1)

62 Figure 16 US$ mn Medium and Long-Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service as of July 1, 2017 Paris Club Debt Principal Interest Total Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 56

63 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 57 Table ( 17 ) Projected Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service as of July 1, 2017 Paris Club Debt Rescheduled Debt (US$ million) (1) Period Principal Interest Total Period Principal Interest Total 2017/H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H Grand Total 4, , (1) The exchange rate of June 30, 2017.

64 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 58 Table ( 18 ) Projected Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service as of July, 2017 Paris Club Debt Non-Rescheduled Debt Period Principal Interest Total Period Principal Interest Total 2017/H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H Grand Total 8, , (1) The exchange rate of June 30, (US$ million) (1)

65 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 59 (US$ million) (1) Period Principal Interest Total Period Principal Interest Total 2017/H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H Grand Total (1) The exchange rate of June 30, Table ( 19 ) Projected Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service Supplier's Credit as of July 1, 2017

66 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 60 Table ( 20 ) Projected Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service as of July 1, 2017 Non-Paris Club Debt (US$ million) (1) Period Principal Interest Total Period Principal Interest Total 2017/H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H Grand Total 4, , (1) The exchange rate of June 30, 2017.

67 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 61 Table ( 21 ) Projected Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service as of July 1, 2017 (US$ million) (1) Period Principal Interest Total Period Principal Interest Total 2017/H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H Grand Total 20, (2) 3, (3) 23, (1) The exchange rate of June 30, (2) Excludes US$ 1, million representing SDR allocations by IMF to its member countries; Egypt s share is SDR MN. (3) Includes US$ million representing forecast interest of SDR allocation. Multilateral Institutions

68 Figure 21 US$ mn Total Medium and Long-Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service Multilateral Institutions as of July 1, Principal Interest Total Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 62

69 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 63 Table ( 22 ) Projected Sovereign Notes (*) Debt Service as of July 1, 2017 Period Principal Interest Total Period Principal Interest Total 2017/H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H Grand Total , (*) Consists of Two Notes The Sovereign Note Nominal Value Amounted US$ 1000 MM, Interest Rate is Fixed 5.75 % issued on 29/4/2010 and due on 29/4/2020. The Sovereign Note Nominal Value Amounted US$ 500 MM, Interest Rate is Fixed issued on 30/4/2010 and due on 30/4/2040. (US$ million)

70 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 64 Table ( 23 ) Projected Global Medium Term Notes (G.M.T.N.) (*) Debt Service as of July 1, 2017 Period Principal Interest Total (US$ million) 2017/H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H1 1, , Grand Total 1, , (*)The Projected Global Medium Term Notes (G.M.T.N.) Nominal Value Amounted US$ 1500 MM,The Applicable Interest Rate is Fixed : %, issued on 11/6/2015 and due on 11/6/2025.

71 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 65 Table ( 24 ) Projected Global Medium Term Notes Programme (*) Debt Service as of July 1, 2017 Period Principal Interest Total (US$ million) 2017/H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H1 1, , Grand Total 1, , (*)The Global Medium Term Notes Programme Nominal Value Amounted US$ 1750 MM,The Applicable Interest Rate is Fixed : %, issued on 31/1/2017 and due on 31/1/2022.

72 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 66 Table ( 25 ) Projected Global Medium Term Notes Programme (*) Debt Service as of July 1, 2017 Period Principal Interest Total (US$ million) 2017/H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H Grand Total , (*)The Global Medium Term Notes Programme Nominal Value Amounted US$ 1000 MM,The Applicable Interest Rate is Fixed : %, issued on 31/1/2017 and due on 31/1/2027.

73 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 67 Table ( 26 ) Projected Global Medium Term Notes Programme (*) Debt Service as of July 1, 2017 Period Principal Interest Total 2017/H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H1 1, , Grand Total 1, , , (*)The Global Medium Term Notes Programme Nominal Value Amounted US$ 1250 MM,The Applicable Interest Rate is Fixed : %, issued on 31/1/2017 and due on 31/1/2047. (US$ million)

74 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 68 Table ( 27 ) Projected Global Medium Term Notes Programme (*) Debt Service as of July 1, 2017 (US$ million) Period Principal Interest Total 2017/H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H Grand Total (*)The Global Medium Term Notes Programme Nominal Value Amounted US$ 750 MM,The Applicable Interest Rate is Fixed : %, issued on 31/5/2017 and due on 31/1/2022.

75 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 69 Table ( 28 ) Projected Global Medium Term Notes Programme (*) Debt Service as of July 1, 2017 (US$ million) Period Principal Interest Total 2017/H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H1 1, , Grand Total 1, , (*)The Global Medium Term Notes Programme Nominal Value Amounted US$ 1000 MM,The Applicable Interest Rate is Fixed : %, issued on 31/5/2017 and due on 31/1/2027.

76 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 70 Table ( 29 ) Projected Global Medium Term Notes Programme (*) Debt Service as of July 1, 2017 Period Principal Interest Total 2017/H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H1 1, , Grand Total 1, , , (*)The Global Medium Term Notes Programme Nominal Value Amounted US$ 1250 MM,The Applicable Interest Rate is Fixed : %, issued on 31/5/2017 and due on 31/1/2047. (US$ million)

77 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 71 Table ( 30 ) Projected Medium and Long-Term Deposits for Kuwait as of July 1, 2017 (US$ million) Period Principal Interest Total 2017/H /H /H2 2, , /H /H /H Grand Total 4, (*) , (*) Consists of Two Deposits : The First Deposit Amounted US$ 2000 MM, Interest Rate is Libor 12 months deposited on 24/9/2013 and due on 24/9/2018 Paid on annual basis. The Second Deposit Amounted US$ 2000 MM, Interest Rate is Fixed 2.50 % deposited on 21/4/2015 and due on 21/4/2018, 21/4/2019 and 21/4/2020 ( Three installment) Interest Paid on Semi-annual basis.

78 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 72 Table ( 31 ) Projected Medium Term Deposits for Libya as of July 1, 2017 Period Principal Interest Total (US$ million) 2017/H /H Grand Total 1, (*) , (*) Amounted US$ 2000 MM, no Interest Rate, deposited on 12/4/2013 and due from 11/7/2016 up to 11/4/2018 Quarterly (Each quarter amount: US$ 250 MM).

79 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 73 Table ( 32 ) Projected Medium and Long-Term Deposits for Saudi Arabia as of July 1, 2017 Period Principal Interest Total (US$ million) 2017/H /H /H2 2, , /H /H2 3, , /H Grand Total 7, (*) , (*) Consists of Five Deposits : The First Deposit Amounted US$ 1000 MM (Outstanding now is US$ 600 MM), Interest Rate is Libor 3 months deposited on 9/5/2012 and due from 9/11/2015 up to 9/5/2020 (Equal 10 semiannual installment, USD 100 MM). The Second Deposit Amounted US$ 2000 MM, no Interest Rate deposited on 19/7/2013 and due on 19/7/2018. The Third Deposit Amounted US$ 2000 MM, Interest Rate is Fixed 2.50 % deposited on 22/4/2015 and due on 22/4/2018, 22/4/2019 and 22/4/2020 ( Three installment) Interest Paid on Semi-annual basis. The Fourth Deposit Amounted US$ 2000 MM, Interest Rate is Fixed 1.00 % deposited on 23/9/2016 and due on 23/9/2019 Interest Paid on Quarterly-annual basis. The Fifth Deposit Amounted US$ 1000 MM, Interest Rate is Fixed 4.50 % deposited on 16/5/2016 and due on 1/7/2019 Interest Paid on Quarterly-annual basis.

80 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 74 Table ( 33 ) Projected Medium and Long-Term Deposits for United Arab Emirates as of July 1, 2017 Period Principal Interest Total (US$ million) 2017/H /H /H2 2, , /H1 1, , /H /H1 1, , /H /H /H /H /H Grand Total 5, (*) , (*) Consists of Four Deposits : The First Deposit Amounted US$ 2000 MM, no Interest Rate deposited on 17/7/2013 and due on 17/7/2018 The Second Deposit Amounted US$ 2000 MM, Interest Rate is Fixed 2.50 % deposited on 22/4/2015 and due on 22/4/2018, 22/4/2019 and 22/4/2020 ( Three installment) Interest Paid on Semi-annual basis. The Third Deposit Amounted US$ 1000 MM, Interest Rate is Fixed 2.50 % deposited on 31/5/2016 and due on 30/5/2019, 30/5/2020 and 30/5/2021 (Three installment) Interest Paid on Semi-annual basis. The Fourth Deposit Amounted US$ 1000 MM (Outstanding is US$ MM), Interest Rate is Fixed 4.00 % deposited on 31/8/2016 and due on 31/8/2022 Interest Paid on monthly basis.

81 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 75 Table ( 34 ) Projected Short-Term Debt Debt Service as of July 1, 2017 (US$ million) (1) Period Principal Interest Total July , , August September October November , , December , , January February March April May June Grand Total 12, , (1) The exchange rate of June 30, 2017.

82 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 76 Table ( 35 ) Exchange Rates of the Currencies of External Debt Versus US Dollar as at End of June Country Currency United States USD Switzerland CHF Denmark DKK Egypt EGP Sweden SEK Japan JPY India INR United Kingdom GBP Canada CAD Australia AUD Norway NOK Euro EUR Special Drawing Rights SDR Kuwait KWD United Arab Emirates AED Saudi Arabia SAR Chinese Yuan CNY

83 Central Bank of Egypt External Position Appendix III Box Page I- Egypt's Subscription to SDDS and Data Quality Dimensions 1 79 II- Egypt's Data Quality Dimensions III- Doing Business in Egypt 3 81 IV- Tourism Market Diversification Glossary. 83

84 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 79 Box. (1): Egypt's Subscription to SDDS and Data Quality Dimensions: In 1996, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) introduced the Special Data Dissemination Standards (SDDS). The SDDS is intended to guide countries that have, or seek to have, access to international capital markets in their provision of economic and financial statistics. Subscription to SDDS is voluntary and it requires subscribers to observe the standard and provide information on data and dissemination practices (the metadata) to the IMF for redissemination. The standard identifies 4 dimensions of data dissemination: coverage, periodicity, and timeliness; access by the public; the integrity of the disseminated data; and the quality of the data themselves. In particular, the data dimension lists 18 data category, providing coverage for 4 sectors (real, financial, fiscal and external) of the economy and prescribes minimum timeliness and frequency standard, summarized in table below. On January 31, 2005, Egypt became the 59th subscriber to the International Monetary Fund's Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS). The report of External Position contains external sector data that cover external debt, balance of payments, international reserves, merchandise trade, international investment position (IIP) and exchange rates. Such data are published in compliance with the requirement under Special Data Dissemination Standards (SDDS) of the IMF. Central Bank of Egypt compiles these statistics and disseminates them through press releases, its website, and at the same time, on the IMF's Dissemination Standard Bulletin Board (DSBB). Also, these data are included in the CBE main publications; quarterly Economic Review, Annual Report and Monthly Statistical Bulletin. As the title indicates, the most comprehensive and complete databases are those available from national sources, supplying high quality, timely and accurate data to international financial community to support investment activity. SDDS Data Categories and Related Periodicity & Timeliness Standards SDDS Data Category Periodicity Minimum Timeliness Real Sector National accounts Quarterly 1 Quarter Production indices Monthly 6 weeks Employment, unemployment, wage/earnings Quarterly 1 Quarter Consumer price index Monthly 1 Month Fiscal Sector General Government operations Annual 2 quarters Central Government operations Monthly 1 Month Central Government debt Quarterly 1 Quarter Financial Sector Analytical accounts of the banking sector Monthly 1 Month Analytical accounts of the Central Bank Monthly 2 weeks Interest rates and stock market Daily * No timeliness standard set External Sector Balance of payments Quarterly 1 Quarter International reserves Monthly 1 week Merchandise trade Monthly 8 weeks International Investment Position (IIP) Quarterly 1 quarter External debt Quarterly 1 Quarter Exchange rates Daily *No timeliness standard set Source: IMF Statistics Department. 1

85 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 80 Box. (2):Egypt's Data Quality Dimensions*: According to international rating agencies, having an efficient, effective and reliable economic data, especially in developing countries, is becoming increasingly crucial to assign an appropriate sovereign credit rating. Thus, a lack of data in this area will automatically translate into a perception of high risk. Therefore, highlighting the dimensions of Egypt data quality by showing the results of World Bank index (BBSC 2017) will be an appropriate way to show how reliable are the Egyptian official data. Egypt ranked 25 th on World Bank's Bulletin Board on Statistical Capacity index on 146 developing countries and 1st on the MENA and African regions, with an overall statistical capacity index of 83.3 points, compared to 87.8 in Statistical Capacity Indicator 2017 (on a scale of 0-100) Indicator Egypt All Countries Overall Methodology Source Data Periodicity & timeliness A country's statistical capacity means its ability to extract and publish reliable and timely statistical data, easily accessible by the public. The statistical capacity index, issued annually by the World Bank, consists of three sub-indicators which include; methodology, data sources, and its periodicity and timeliness. The latter measures the degree of information and data dissemination concerning changes in government policy, and how easily that information can be accessed by the public. It is worth mentioning that, aiming to improve the statistical capacity of 146 developing countries, the World Bank provides information on various aspects of national statistical systems through the BBSC indicator at its website. As can be seen from the table and its chart, Egypt s score outpaced the average score of all countries, either on the level of the overall index, or on the level of its three sub-indicators. * Source: bbsc.worldbank.org, accessed in November, 2017.

86 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 81 Box. (3): Doing Business in Egypt: One of the most important indices and reports that is closely related to investment climate and investor s decisions is Doing Business. The Report has been designed and issued by the World Bank Group on an annual basis since It provides objective measures of business regulations for firms in 190 economies worldwide. The 2018 ranking on the ease of doing business is built upon indicator sets that measure and benchmark regulations affecting 10 areas in a business s life cycle. Doing Business encompasses 2 types of data. The first is Legal scoring indicators that provides a measure of legal provisions in the laws and regulations. The other type is Time and motion indicators, which measures the efficiency and complexity in achieving a regulatory goal by recording the procedures, time and cost to complete a transaction according to all relevant regulations. By comparing business regulation environments across nations (the ease of doing business ranking) and over time (the distance to frontier score), Doing Business encourages countries to compete towards more efficient regulation; offers measurable benchmarks for reform; and serves as a resource for policymakers and other interested parties. Topic Rankings 2018 Rank 2017 Rank Change in Rank Overall index Distance to frontier score* Starting a Business Dealing with Construction Permits Getting Electricity Registering Property Getting Credit Protecting Investors Paying Taxes Trading Across Borders Enforcing Contracts Resolving Insolvency * The rankings are determined by sorting the aggregate distance to frontier scores on 10 topics. During 2016/2017, Egypt made starting a business easier by merging procedures at the one-stop shop and strengthened minority investor protections by increasing shareholder rights and role in major corporate decisions and by clarifying ownership and control structures. Area of Reform DB Year Reform Actions Starting a Business Dealing with Construction Permits It was made easier by reducing the paid-in minimum capital requirement by more 2009 than 80%, abolishing bar association fees, and automating tax registration The minimum capital required to start a business was removed Egypt reduced the cost to start a business. Egypt made starting a business easier by merging procedures at the one-stop shop 2017 by introducing a follow-up unit in charge of liaising with the tax and labor authority on behalf of the company. A new building code introduced in 2008 is aimed at reducing the procedures and time 2009 required to deal with construction permits by establishing a single window for processing construction-related approvals. Construction permits were made easier by issuing executive articles for the construction law and eliminating most pre-approvals for construction permits. Enforcing Contracts 2010 Contract enforcement was expedited with the creation of commercial courts. Getting Credit Registering Property 2009 Trading Across Borders Protecting Minority Investors Trading Across Borders Thanks to new regulations issued by the Central Bank, borrowers have the right to inspect their data in the private credit bureau. Access to credit information has expanded with the addition of retailers to the database of the private credit bureau. Simplified administrative procedures for registering property and new time limits have reduced the time to transfer property in Cairo from 193 days to 72. Alexandria port continued to upgrade its facilities and speed customs clearance, reducing the time to export by 1 day and the time to import by 3. Egypt made trading easier by introducing an electronic system for submitting export and import documents. New listing rules for the Cairo Stock Exchange strengthened protections for minority shareholders: now an independent body must assess transactions between interested parties before they are approved. Additional requirements have been introduced to strengthen minority investor protections; An approval of related-party transactions and greater requirements for disclosure of such transactions to the Egyptian Exchange by barring subsidiaries from acquiring shares issued by their parent company. by increasing shareholder rights and role in major corporate decisions and by 2017 clarifying ownership and control structures by increasing shareholder rights and role in major corporate decisions Source: accessed in November upgrading port facilities at Alexandria and speeding up customs clearance, while greater competition in the banking sector led to a reduction in the time to open a letter of credit. Egypt made trading easier by introducing an electronic system for submitting export and import documents.

87 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 82 Box. (4):Tourism Market Diversification: Since the year 2003/2004, a shift towards concentration has been noticed in Egypt s tourism market, as the European region is getting more dominance in terms of market share, pushing the degree of the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI 1 ) to exceed The HHI Index was applied to measure the degree of diversification within Egypt's tourism market over the 1989/ /17 period. As can be observed from the following chart, despite the HHI has been fluctuating, it took an upward trend over the entire period, from 0.31 in 1989/90 to 0.60 in 2014/15. However, it started to drop since 2015/16 till it reached 0.35 in 2016/17. This indicates a continued market diversification during the last couple of years. This corresponds to the trends reflected in tourism data: a significant increase in number of incoming visitors from European countries and Asia & Pacific and a slight decrease of tourists from other regions, especially from Africa and the Americas. Such downward trend of the HHI index still sheds light on the necessary steps and incentives that are much needed to diversify Egypt's tourism market much more. Such diversification could mitigate tourism demand shocks. Nevertheless, the HHI index never exceeded 0.61, indicating more diversified tourism market, especially when compared to some of neighboring countries in the MENA region. Market Shares of Tourist Arrivals (1989/ /2017): 1 The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index, which traditionally a measure of concentration within industries, is specified in formula as: HHI n i 1 Xi / n i 1 Xi 2, Where i is a particular origin country, n is the total number of origin countries, and xi is the total number of visitors from origin country i. The value of HHI will fall between 0 and 1. It will be 1 if visitors to Egypt are completely concentrated in one origin country and will approach 0 as the tourist origins become more diversified.