Risk Management in the Pulp and Paper Context RISI European Conference March 7, 2017

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1 Risk Management in the Pulp and Paper Context RISI European Conference March 7, 2017 Gary Helik Risk Management Consultant INTL FCStone Financial Inc. FCM Division 1

2 Disclaimer The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over the counter ( OTC ) products or swaps may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. All references to futures and options on futures trading are made solely on behalf of the FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc. ( INTL FCStone Financial ), a member of the National Futures Association ( NFA ) and registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission ( CFTC ) as a futures commission merchant. All references to and discussion of OTC products or swaps are made solely on behalf of INTL FCStone Markets, LLC ( IFM ), a member of the NFA and provisionally registered with the CFTC as a swap dealer. IFM s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an Eligible Contract Participant ( ECP ) and who have been accepted as customers of IFM. This material should be construed as the solicitation of trading strategies and/or services provided by INTL FCStone Financial, or IFM, as noted in this presentation. Neither INTL FCStone Financial nor IFM is responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions or viewpoints INTL FCStone Financial or IFM. All forecasting statements made within this material represent the opinions of the author unless otherwise noted. Factual information believed to reliable, was used to formulate these statements of opinion; but we cannot guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information being relied upon. Accordingly, these statements do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints employed by INTL FCStone Financial or IFM. All forecasts of market conditions are inherently subjective and speculative, and actual results and subsequent forecasts may vary significantly from these forecasts. No assurance or guarantee is made that these forecasts will be achieved. Any examples given are provided for illustrative purposes only, and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those examples. Reproduction or use in any format without authorization is forbidden. Copyright All rights reserved. 2

8 ASIA China Singapore South Korea Access to 36 global exchanges Global Exchange Membership SOUTH AMERICA Brazil Argentina Paraguay Colombia 11 2 AFRICA 1 AUSTRALIA

3 INTL FCStone Global Commodity Profile Provides hedging solutions in nearly every major commodity producing country Significant presence in key emerging markets U.S. and U.K platforms provide broad suite of financial services Global payments provider in over 130 countries NORTH AMERICA US EMEA UAE EUROPE England Ireland ASIA China Singapore South Korea Access to 36 global exchanges Global Exchange Membership SOUTH AMERICA Brazil Argentina Paraguay Colombia 11 2 AFRICA 1 AUSTRALIA / NZ 1 2 # Number of Offices # Number of Exchanges Serving more than 11,000 Clients Globally with 1,200 Professionals Located in 12 Countries on 6 Continents 3

price risk shifting from HEDGERS on the production side to HEDGERS on the

4 Role of Futures Exchanges Futures exchanges provide two vital economic functions: PRICE DISCOVERY PRICE RISK TRANSFER Futures exchanges help manage price risk shifting from HEDGERS on the production side to HEDGERS on the consuming side SPECULATORS assist by providing constant buying / selling activity 7

5 Futures Exchanges Are Regulated Markets Government Oversight: FSA (Norway), FCA (UK), CFTC (USA) Industry Oversight: NFA (USA) Contract performance guaranteed by clearing house 5 8

6 Price Discovery Revealed Current Month Crude Oil Contract 10

7 Price Discovery Revealed Crude Oil Forward Month Contracts RESULT : BUYERS know how much they will have to pay; SELLERS know how much they will be paid; INVESTORS and ANALYSTS can estimate futures earnings. 11

8 Futures Exchanges Price Physical Commodities Futures price commercial business: I will sell you my oil at the average daily exchange price plus a $2 basis premium for quality and delivery Transparent transactions on exchange determine market price Producer and customer only negotiate basis to market; market price debates eliminated a constructive relationship! EXCHANGE Bids & Offers PHYSICAL TRADE Basis reference exchange price Futures prices move reflecting changing expectations Volatility is managed by hedging on exchange 8

9 Pulp and Paper Pricing is Unusual Leading producers announce list price increase for upcoming month $20/$30/$50/ton Secret negotiations follow between buyers & sellers Indices estimate market price Transaction price is substantially discounted Month to month pricing only What is the result? NO market price transparency NO market price beyond 1 month Questionable investment and operating decisions BUYERS DON T know how much they will have to pay; SELLERS DON T know how much they will be paid; INVESTORS and ANALYSTS STRUGGLE to estimate futures earnings. 9

10 P&P Industry Results Are Among Worst Source: Suzano Pulp and Paper, Walter Schalka, CEO, London Pulp Week

Without Futures Market Prices to Induce Discipline

Prices The history of the pulp industry has been to add

11 Without Futures Market Prices to Induce Discipline Investment Decisions Rely on Forecasts: Excess Supply, Low Prices The history of the pulp industry has been to add capacity in an undisciplined manner, often in excess of demand, thereby depressing price. In the absence of a liquid futures market, forecasts have played a major role in these decisions. Futures adjust to new supply through lower bids, thereby discouraging even more new supply. Forecasts are static and tend to reused giving the illusion of a satisfactory return to other investors considering the same new capacity. 11

12 Currency is Volatile, Drives Pulp Volatility 12

13 What is Pulp Volatility in Local Currency/Ton?* *Low & high range of PIX volatility from 2010 to 2016 against 2016 closing price at 95% confidence level 13

14 China s Volatile Demand Growth Spills Into Global Markets 14

15 How Do Consumers Fare in Current Pricing System? Failing to pass through monthly cost increases onto finished goods prices in a timely fashion has serious consequences when margins are crippled and shareholder expectations are not met. If consumers have no market to manage forward exposure they will resist monthly increases, especially sequential increases. This strains seller / buyer relationships! Futures markets ease the process of passing through higher costs to the ultimate consumer. $1.65 billion - 6 % market cap loss over 4 days; 6X earnings miss 15

16 Experts have a tough time making predictions especially about the future! 16

17 What Do Investors Want? It depends Some want consistent earnings and growth Expectation is that management will do everything in its power to deliver consistently Product, customer mix, organic and strategic growth And manage risk to floating market exposures This firm is an investment Some want exposure to cyclicality Buy equity low, sell high This firm is a trade 17

18 The Need to Manage Price Risk Varies by Pulp & Paper Sector HIGHER Price Volatility Exposure Pulp Specialty Paper Printing & Writing US Tissue US Corrugated LOWER LOWER Sector Consolidation HIGHER 18

Pricing stability Promotional planning Business efficiency Cash flow

19 Futures Hedging is Misconceived in the Pulp and Paper Industry Hedging is NOT about speculating and beating the market: Hedging is about profit stability Pricing stability Promotional planning Business efficiency Cash flow consistency Budget consistency Effective strategic decision making Customer loyalty 25

20 Hedging Should Allow You To: Anticipate profit margins Improve fiscal development Develop a comprehensive business plan CREATE CERTAINTY 26

21 21

22 What is the Holdback on Participation in Futures Markets for Pulp & Paper? Industry culture of secrecy surrounding transactions Misconception that hedging is speculating A lack of expertise across the organization concerning hedging and tools Focus on consolidation or capital investment Lack of mandate from BOD We are conservative = reluctance to change behavior 22

23 Final Thoughts Market volatility creates uncertainty: Supply/demand + currency + China Financial hedging creates certainty mitigates risk, allows for better planning, deliverable results predictable shareholder value What Does Your Firm Want to Be? An Investment or a Trade? 31

24 Futures Markets Help You Make Informed Decisions 24

25 THANK YOU

IRFA Summit OUTLOOK PANEL. INTL FCStone Financial Inc. FCM Division. Mike Blackford Risk Management Consultant

IRFA Summit OUTLOOK PANEL. INTL FCStone Financial Inc. FCM Division. Mike Blackford Risk Management Consultant IRFA Summit OUTLOOK PANEL INTL FCStone Financial Inc. FCM Division Mike Blackford Risk Management Consultant DISCLAIMER The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter ( OTC )