Quarterly Investment Update

Transcription

1 Quarterly Investment Update Third Quarter 2017 Dimensional Fund Advisors Canada ULC ( DFA Canada ) is not affiliated with The CM Group DFA Canada is a separate and distinct company

2 Market Update: A Quarter in Review September 30, 2017 CANADIAN STOCKS INTERNATIONAL STOCKS Large Cap Small Cap Growth Value Large Cap Small Cap Growth Value Emerging +398% +144% +271% +470% +141% +348% +096% +185% +390% US STOCKS REAL ESTATE AND FIXED INCOME Large Cap Small Cap Growth Value Global REITs 1-Month T-Bills Short-Term Bonds Intermediate Bonds Global Bonds (hedged) +052% +166% +191% -065% -261% +016% -045% -184% +028% Data is in Canadian dollars Market segment (index representation) as follows: Canadian stocks: Large Cap (S&P/TSX 60), Small Cap (MSCI Canadian Small), Growth (MSCI Canadian Growth), Value (MSCI Canadian Value); US stocks: Large Cap (S&P 500), Small Cap (Russell 2000), Growth (Russell 3000 Growth), Value (Russell 3000 Value); International stocks: Large Cap (MSCI EAFE [net div]), Small Cap (MSCI EAFE Small Cap [net div]), Growth (MSCI EAFE Growth [net div]), Value (MSCI EAFE Value [net div]), Emerging Markets (MSCI Emerging [net div]); Real Estate: Global REITs (S&P Global REIT [net div]); Fixed Income: Canadian (Canadian 1-month T-bills), Short Term Bonds (FTSE TMX Canada Short-Term Bond), Intermediate Bonds (FTSE TMX Canada Universe Bond), Global Bonds-Hedged (Citi World Government Bond Index 1-5 Years [hedged to CAD]) Indexes are not available for direct investment Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio Past performance does not guarantee future returns S&P/TSX data provided by S&P/TSX MSCI data copyright MSCI 2017, all rights reserved The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor's Index Services Group Russell data copyright Russell Investment Group , all rights reserved Canadian fixed income data provided by FTSE TMX Global Debt Capital Markets Inc, all rights reserved Citigroup bond indexes copyright 2017 by Citigroup 1

3 Survey of Long-Term Performance September 30, 2017 Annualized (%) Asset Class Index 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years 20 Years Since Inception Inception date CANADIAN STOCKS Large Cap S&P/TSX Feb-87 Small Cap MSCI Canadian Small Jul-90 Growth MSCI Canadian Growth Jan-82 Value MSCI Canadian Value Jan-82 US STOCKS Large Cap S&P Feb-51 Small Cap Russell Jan-79 Growth Russell 3000 Growth Jan-79 Value Russell 3000 Value Jan-79 INTERNATIONAL STOCKS Large Cap MSCI EAFE (net div) Jan-70 Small Cap MSCI EAFE Small Cap (net div) Jan-93 Growth MSCI EAFE Growth (net div) Jan-75 Value MSCI EAFE Value (net div) Jan-75 Emerging Markets MSCI Emerging Markets (net div) Jan-88 REAL ESTATE Global REITs S&P Global REIT (net div) Jul-89 FIXED INCOME Canadian Bills Canadian 1-Month T-Bills Jun-73 Canadian Short-Term Bonds FTSE TMX Canada Short-Term Bond Jan-80 Canadian Bonds FTSE TMX Canada Universe Bond Jan-80 Global Bonds (hedged) Citi World Government Bond Index 1-5 Years Jan-85 Data is in Canadian dollars MSCI EAFE Small Cap Index return is price-only prior to January 1999 data inception MSCI Emerging Markets Index return is gross dividends prior to January 1999 data inception S&P Global REIT Index return is gross dividends prior to January 2001 data inception S&P/TSX data provided by S&P/TSX MSCI data copyright MSCI 2017, all rights reserved The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor's Index Services Group Russell data copyright Russell Investment Group , all rights reserved Canadian fixed income data provided by FTSE TMX Global Debt Capital Markets Inc, all rights reserved Citigroup bond indexes copyright 2017 by Citigroup Indexes are not available for direct investment Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio Past performance is not a guarantee of future results 2

4 Value of Stock Markets around the World January 1990 September 2017 Number of Countries Number of Stocks Total Value September 30, 2017 Weights Change from Previous Year 01/90-09/17 Average Canada Trillion 33% -08% 31% United States 1 2, Trillion 516% -12% 468% Developed Markets 21 3, Trillion 327% +16% 432% Emerging Markets 24 2, Trillion 124% +12% 69% Total 47 8, Trillion 1000% 80% 70% 60% Intl Developed Markets Maximum 6707% January 1990 US Stock Market Maximum 5688% January % 40% Intl Developed Markets Minimum 3109% November % 20% 10% US Stock Market Minimum 2989% January 1990 Emerging Markets Minimum 072% January 1990 CAN Stock Market Minimum 201% December 1998 Emerging Markets Maximum 1515% September % Global market capitalization weights are not static; they change across time Data is in US dollars and values are beginning of month The proxies for the Canadian and US equity markets are based on the respective country markets from the MSCI All Country World IMI Index The international developed market proxy is the MSCI All Country World IMI ex USA ex Canada Index The proxy for emerging markets is the MSCI All Country World IMI Index (Emerging Markets) MSCI data copyright MSCI 2017, all rights reserved CAN Stock Market Maximum 504% March

5 The Randomness of Quarterly Returns September 30, 2017 This table shows from top to bottom the highest returning asset classes each quarter over the last 15 quarters Each asset class is color coded based on the legend below Highest Return Lowest Return Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Canadian Stocks US Stocks International Developed Markets Emerging Markets Global REITs Canadian 1-Month T-Bills Canadian Bonds Global Bonds The lack of a pattern indicates that picking which asset classes will be the best or worst performers is virtually impossible Portfolios combining these various investments will avoid extreme returns Data is in Canadian dollars Indexes represented as follows: Canadian stocks (S&P/TSX Composite Index), US stocks (Russell 3000 Index), International Developed Markets (MSCI EAFE Index), Emerging Markets (MSCI Emerging Markets Index), Global REIT (S&P Global REIT Index), Canadian 1-Month T-Bills, Canadian Bonds (FTSE TMX Canada Universe Bond Index), Global Bonds (Citi World Government Bond Index Canada 1-5 Years) Indexes are not available for direct investment Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio Past performance is not a guarantee of future results S&P/TSX data provided by S&P/TSX MSCI data copyright MSCI 2017, all rights reserved The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor's Index Services Group Russell data copyright Russell Investment Group , all rights reserved Canadian fixed income data provided by FTSE TMX Global Debt Capital Markets Inc, all rights reserved Citigroup bond indexes copyright 2017 by Citigroup 4

6 Currency September 30, 2017 CHANGE IN FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES (%) $CAD/FX Currency Q One Year Three Years $ US Dollars -383% -497% 1124% Euro -056% -010% 412% Pounds -110% -216% -812% Yen -391% -1452% 847% UnitedStates IMPACT OF CURRENCY FLUCTUATIONS Annual Returns in CAD and Local Currency Three-Year Annualized Returns in CAD and Local Currency 1298% 1873% 1367% 1942% 1995% 1439% CAD Local Currency 1495% 1072% 935% 935% 830% 863% US Stocks Int'l Stocks Emerging Markets US Stocks Int'l Stocks Emerging Markets Data is in Canadian dollars The market for the United States, International Developed Markets, and Emerging Markets is defined as: Russell 3000 Index, MSCI EAFE Index, and MSCI Emerging Markets Index, respectively The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor's Index Services Group Russell data copyright Russell Investment Group , all rights reserved MSCI data copyright MSCI 2017, all rights reserved Indexes are not available for direct investment Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio Past performance is not a guarantee of future results FX Rates courtesy of Federal Reserve of New York 5

7 MSCI Country Returns in Canadian Dollars and Local Currency September 30, 2017 THIRD QUARTER 2017 RETURNS Return in CAD Return in Local Currency Impact of Currency 1 Brazil 1925% 1822% 103% 2 Norway 1403% 1253% 150% 19 Canada 370% 370% 000% UnitedStates 25 United States 072% 459% -387% 46 Greece -1208% -1192% -016% 47 Pakistan -1548% -1182% -366% ONE YEAR RETURNS IN CAD AND LOCAL CURRENCY Return in CAD Return in Local Currency Impact of Currency 1 Poland 4463% 4471% -007% 2 Italy 4102% 4087% 015% UnitedStates 24 United States 1288% 1862% -574% 33 Canada 903% 903% 000% 46 Qatar -1946% -1540% -407% 47 Pakistan -2584% -1954% -631% MSCI data copyright MSCI 2017, all rights reserved Indexes are not available for direct investment Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio Past performance is not a guarantee of future results 6

8 MSCI Country Returns Country Rankings Ten-Year Annualized Returns as of September 30, 2017 Thailand Philippines United States Denmark Indonesia Sri Lanka Hong Kong Switzerland Taiwan Argentina Peru New Zealand Colombia Netherlands Sweden Malaysia South Africa Singapore Chile Korea Germany China Japan Australia India Mexico France Pakistan Canada UK Belgium Israel Morocco Spain Brazil Norway Hungary Finland Egypt Turkey Poland Czech Republic Italy Russia Austria Jordan Ireland Portugal Greece UnitedSta Percent Return Data in Canadian dollars gross of fees MSCI data copyright MSCI 2017, all rights reserved Indexes are not available for direct investment Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio Past performance is not a guarantee of future results 7

9 Bond Returns September 30, 2017 Index Q Return (%) One Year Three Years Annualized Canadian 1-Month T-Bills 016% 054% 056% FTSE TMX Canada Short-Term Bond Index -045% -070% 144% FTSE TMX Canada Mid-Term Bond Index -148% -327% 299% FTSE TMX Canada Long-Term Bond Index -409% -595% 443% FTSE TMX Canada Universe Bond Index -184% -297% 279% Citi World Government Bond Index 1-5 Years 028% 016% 140% (hedged to CAD) CAN Treasury Yield Curve 2% 6/30/2016 3/31/2017 6/30/2017 1% 0% 3M 6M 1YR 2YR 3YR 5YR 10YR 30YR Data is in Canadian dollars Canadian fixed income data provided by FTSE TMX Global Debt Capital Markets Inc, all rights reserved Data provided by Citibank Treasury yield data provided by Bank Of Canada; copyright , Bank of Canada 8

10 Growth of Wealth One Year as of September 30, 2017 $120 $110 Balanced Portfolio T-Bills Canadian Bonds International Stocks Emerging Markets Stocks US Stocks Global Real Estate Canadian Stocks $117 $113 $113 $109 $105 $100 $101 $097 $094 $090 $080 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 In Canadian dollars T-Bills is Canadian 1-Month T-Bills, Canadian Bonds is FTSE TMX Canada Universe Bond Index, International Stocks is MSCI EAFE Index (net div), Emerging Markets Stocks is MSCI Emerging Markets Index (gross div) from 01/1988 to 12/1998 and MSCI Emerging Markets Index (net div) from 01/1999, US Stocks is S&P 500 Index, Global Real Estate is S&P Global REIT Index (gross div) from 07/1989 to 12/2000 and S&P Global REIT (net div) from 01/2001 and Canadian Stocks is S&P/TSX Composite Index Balanced Portfolio is 10% T-Bills, 30% Canadian Bonds, 20% Canadian Stocks, 15% US Stocks, 15% International Stocks, 5% Emerging Markets Stocks and 5% Global Real Estate Canadian fixed income data provided by FTSE TMX Global Debt Capital Markets Inc, all rights reserved MSCI data copyright MSCI 2017, all rights reserved The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor s Index Services Group S&P/TSX data provided by S&P/TSX Indexes are not available for direct investment Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio Past performance is not a guarantee of future results 9

11 Growth of Wealth Three Years as of September 30, 2017 $160 $150 Balanced Portfolio T-Bills Canadian Bonds International Stocks Emerging Markets Stocks US Stocks Global Real Estate Canadian Stocks $152 $140 $130 $120 $110 $100 $135 $129 $129 $121 $114 $109 $102 $090 $080 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 In Canadian dollars T-Bills is Canadian 1-Month T-Bills, Canadian Bonds is FTSE TMX Canada Universe Bond Index, International Stocks is MSCI EAFE Index (net div), Emerging Markets Stocks is MSCI Emerging Markets Index (gross div) from 01/1988 to 12/1998 and MSCI Emerging Markets Index (net div) from 01/1999, US Stocks is S&P 500 Index, Global Real Estate is S&P Global REIT Index (gross div) from 07/1989 to 12/2000 and S&P Global REIT (net div) from 01/2001 and Canadian Stocks is S&P/TSX Composite Index Balanced Portfolio is 10% T-Bills, 30% Canadian Bonds, 20% Canadian Stocks, 15% US Stocks, 15% International Stocks, 5% Emerging Markets Stocks and 5% Global Real Estate Canadian fixed income data provided by FTSE TMX Global Debt Capital Markets Inc, all rights reserved MSCI data copyright MSCI 2017, all rights reserved The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor s Index Services Group S&P/TSX data provided by S&P/TSX Indexes are not available for direct investment Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio Past performance is not a guarantee of future results 10

12 Growth of Wealth Five Years as of September 30, 2017 $270 $250 $230 Balanced Portfolio T-Bills Canadian Bonds International Stocks Emerging Markets Stocks US Stocks Global Real Estate Canadian Stocks $247 $210 $190 $170 $150 $130 $110 $090 $190 $179 $155 $151 $147 $114 $104 $070 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 In Canadian dollars T-Bills is Canadian 1-Month T-Bills, Canadian Bonds is FTSE TMX Canada Universe Bond Index, International Stocks is MSCI EAFE Index (net div), Emerging Markets Stocks is MSCI Emerging Markets Index (gross div) from 01/1988 to 12/1998 and MSCI Emerging Markets Index (net div) from 01/1999, US Stocks is S&P 500 Index, Global Real Estate is S&P Global REIT Index (gross div) from 07/1989 to 12/2000 and S&P Global REIT (net div) from 01/2001 and Canadian Stocks is S&P/TSX Composite Index Balanced Portfolio is 10% T-Bills, 30% Canadian Bonds, 20% Canadian Stocks, 15% US Stocks, 15% International Stocks, 5% Emerging Markets Stocks and 5% Global Real Estate Canadian fixed income data provided by FTSE TMX Global Debt Capital Markets Inc, all rights reserved MSCI data copyright MSCI 2017, all rights reserved The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor s Index Services Group S&P/TSX data provided by S&P/TSX Indexes are not available for direct investment Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio Past performance is not a guarantee of future results 11

13 Growth of Wealth Ten Years as of September 30, 2017 $320 $270 Balanced Portfolio T-Bills Canadian Bonds International Stocks Emerging Markets Stocks US Stocks Global Real Estate Canadian Stocks $257 $220 $170 $120 $165 $163 $159 $149 $143 $143 $110 $070 $020 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 In Canadian dollars T-Bills is Canadian 1-Month T-Bills, Canadian Bonds is FTSE TMX Canada Universe Bond Index, International Stocks is MSCI EAFE Index (net div), Emerging Markets Stocks is MSCI Emerging Markets Index (gross div) from 01/1988 to 12/1998 and MSCI Emerging Markets Index (net div) from 01/1999, US Stocks is S&P 500 Index, Global Real Estate is S&P Global REIT Index (gross div) from 07/1989 to 12/2000 and S&P Global REIT (net div) from 01/2001 and Canadian Stocks is S&P/TSX Composite Index Balanced Portfolio is 10% T-Bills, 30% Canadian Bonds, 20% Canadian Stocks, 15% US Stocks, 15% International Stocks, 5% Emerging Markets Stocks and 5% Global Real Estate Canadian fixed income data provided by FTSE TMX Global Debt Capital Markets Inc, all rights reserved MSCI data copyright MSCI 2017, all rights reserved The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor s Index Services Group S&P/TSX data provided by S&P/TSX Indexes are not available for direct investment Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio Past performance is not a guarantee of future results 12

14 Growth of Wealth Twenty Years as of September 30, 2017 $500 $450 $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 Balanced Portfolio T-Bills Canadian Bonds International Stocks Emerging Markets Stocks US Stocks Global Real Estate Canadian Stocks $393 $356 $350 $311 $308 $288 $222 $158 $100 $050 $000 Sep-97 Sep-99 Sep-01 Sep-03 Sep-05 Sep-07 Sep-09 Sep-11 Sep-13 Sep-15 Sep-17 In Canadian dollars T-Bills is Canadian 1-Month T-Bills, Canadian Bonds is FTSE TMX Canada Universe Bond Index, International Stocks is MSCI EAFE Index (net div), Emerging Markets Stocks is MSCI Emerging Markets Index (gross div) from 01/1988 to 12/1998 and MSCI Emerging Markets Index (net div) from 01/1999, US Stocks is S&P 500 Index, Global Real Estate is S&P Global REIT Index (gross div) from 07/1989 to 12/2000 and S&P Global REIT (net div) from 01/2001 and Canadian Stocks is S&P/TSX Composite Index Balanced Portfolio is 10% T-Bills, 30% Canadian Bonds, 20% Canadian Stocks, 15% US Stocks, 15% International Stocks, 5% Emerging Markets Stocks and 5% Global Real Estate Canadian fixed income data provided by FTSE TMX Global Debt Capital Markets Inc, all rights reserved MSCI data copyright MSCI 2017, all rights reserved The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor s Index Services Group S&P/TSX data provided by S&P/TSX Indexes are not available for direct investment Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio Past performance is not a guarantee of future results 13

15 Quit Monkeying Around! Third Quarter 2017 In the world of investment management there is an oft-discussed idea that blindfolded monkeys throwing darts at pages of stock listings can select portfolios that will do just as well, if not better, than both the market and the average portfolio constructed by professional money managers If this is true, why might it be the case? also be an investor underweight that same stock, this means that, in aggregate, the average dollar invested holds a portfolio that looks like the overall market 1 Exhibit 1 US Stocks Sized by Market Capitalization The Dart Board Exhibit 1 shows the components of the Russell 3000 Index (regarded as a good proxy for the US stock market) as of December 31, 2016 Each stock in the index is represented by a box, and the size of each box represents the stock s market capitalization (share price multiplied by shares outstanding) or market cap in the index For example, Apple (AAPL) is the largest box since it has the largest market cap in the index The boxes get smaller as you move from the top to the bottom of the exhibit, from larger stocks to smaller stocks The boxes are also color coded based on their market cap and whether they are value or growth stocks Value stocks have lower relative prices (as measured by, for instance the price-to-book ratio) and growth stocks tend to have higher relative prices In the exhibit, blue represents large cap value stocks (LV), green is large cap growth stocks (LG), gray is small cap value stocks (SV), and yellow is small cap growth stocks (SG) For the purposes of this analogy you can think of Exhibit 1 as a proxy for the overall stock market and therefore similar to a portfolio that, in aggregate, professional money managers hold in their competition with their simian challengers Because for every investor holding an overweight to a stock (relative to its market cap weighting) there must For illustrative purposes only Illustration includes constituents of the Russell 3000 Index as of December 31, 2016, on a market-cap weighted basis segmented into Large Value, Large Growth, Small Value, and Small Growth Source: Frank Russell Company is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes Please see Appendix for additional information 1 For more on this concept, please see The Arithmetic of Active Management by William Sharpe 14

16 Quit Monkeying Around! (continued from page 14) Exhibit 2, on the other hand, represents the dart board the monkeys are using to play their game Here, the boxes represent the same stocks shown in Exhibit 1, but instead of weighting each company by market cap, the companies are weighted equally For example, in this case, Apple s box is the same size as every other company in the index regardless of its market cap If one were to pin up pages of newspaper stock listings to throw darts at, Exhibit 2 would be much more representative of what the target would look like When looking at Exhibits 1 and 2, the significant differences between the two are clear In Exhibit 1, the surface area is dominated by large value and large growth (blue and green) stocks In Exhibit 2, however, small cap value stocks dominate (gray) Why does this matter? Research has shown that, historically over time, small company stocks have had excess returns relative to large company stocks Research has also shown that, historically over time, value (or low relative price) stocks have had excess returns relative to growth (or high relative price) stocks Because Exhibit 2 has a greater proportion of its surface area dedicated to small cap value stocks, it is more likely that a portfolio of stocks selected at random by throwing darts would end up being tilted towards stocks which research has shown to have had higher returns when compared to the market So Throw Away? This does not mean, however, that haphazardly selecting stocks by the toss of a dart is an efficient or reliable way to invest For one thing, it ignores the complexities that arise in competitive markets Consider as an example something seemingly as straightforward as a strategy that holds every stock in the Russell 3000 Index at an equal weight (the equivalent of buying the whole dart board in Exhibit 2) In order to maintain an equal weight in all 3,000 securities, an investor would have to rebalance frequently, buying shares of companies that have gone down in price and selling shares that have gone up This is because as prices change, so will each individual holding s respective weight in the portfolio By not considering whether or not these frequent trades add value over and above the costs they generate, investors are opening themselves up to a potentially less than desirable outcome Exhibit 2 US Stocks Sized Equally For illustrative purposes only Illustration includes the constituents of the Russell 3000 Index as of December 31, 2016 on an equal-weighted basis segmented into Large Value, Large Growth, Small Value, and Small Growth Source: Frank Russell Company is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes Please see Appendix for additional information 15

17 Quit Monkeying Around! (continued from page 15) Instead, if there are well-known relationships that explain differences in expected returns across stocks, using a systematic and purposeful approach that takes into consideration real-world constraints is more likely to increase your chances for investment success Considerations for such an approach include things like: understanding the drivers of returns and how to best design a portfolio to capture them, what a sufficient level of diversification is, how to appropriately rebalance, and last but not least, how to manage the costs associated with pursuing such a strategy The Long Game Finally, the importance of having an asset allocation well suited for your objectives and risk tolerance, as well as being able to remain focused on the long term, cannot be overemphasized Even well-constructed portfolios pursuing higher expected returns will have periods of disappointing results A financial advisor can help an investor decide on an appropriate asset allocation, stay the course during periods of disappointing results, and carefully weigh the considerations mentioned above to help investors decide if a given investment strategy is the right one for them Conclusion So what insights can investors glean from this analysis? First, by tilting a portfolio towards sources of higher expected returns, investors can potentially outperform the market without needing to outguess market prices Second, implementation and patience are paramount If one is going to pursue higher expected returns, it is important to do so in a costeffective manner and to stay focused on the long term Appendix Large cap is defined as the top 90% of market cap (small cap is the bottom 10%), while value is defined as the 50% of market cap of the lowest relative price stocks (growth is the 50% of market cap of the highest relative price stocks) For educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation of any security The determinations of Large Value, Large Growth, Small Value, and Small Growth do not represent any determinations Dimensional Fund Advisors may make in assessing any of the securities shown Source: Dimensional Fund Advisors LP There is no guarantee investment strategies will be successful Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal Diversification does not eliminate the risk of market loss All expressions of opinion are subject to change This article is distributed for informational purposes, and it is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, recommendation, or endorsement of any particular security, products, or services 16

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