Risks and Opportunities in Global Equities Today BCI Global Investment Conference Tom Mann, CFA Senior Portfolio Manager
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1 Risks and Opportunities in Global Equities Today BCI Global Investment Conference Tom Mann, CFA Senior Portfolio Manager June 2017 For professional investors only. Not suitable for retail clients
2 05/06/ :33:46 Where are the opportunities for investors today? Key themes 1. Growth Bubble 2. Financials Weighing up Risk and Return 3. Emerging vs Developed Markets Source: Schroders, QEP 1
3 05/06/ :33:46 Market Review Your experience will have been very different depending on what you owned US equities have led the charge over the last six years 2....as Growth and Momentum stocks were pushed to even higher valuation levels 3. Emerging Markets struggled to keep pace Nasdaq 100 US Momentum US Growth US Index World Growth Word Index World Value World ex US Emerging Markets 75 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec 16 Source: Schroders, FactSet in USD as at 30 April MSCI indices are Net Dividend Re-invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. 2
4 Growth bubble yet to deflate Fashionable darlings of social media, internet and tech have continued winning... Stock Country Industry Market Cap ($m) Forward P/E Ratio Forward Sales Price / Growth Sales (Next Year) EPS ex Forward Extras EPS Growth Growth (3yr) (Next Year) PEG Ratio YTD Return (USD) 3 Yr Return (USD) Facebook Inc US Software 419, % 120.2% 17.6% % 151% Tencent Hldgs Ltd CN Software 316, % 32.1% 37.4% % 155% Alphabet Inc US Software 643, % 19% 4% % 76% Tesla Inc US Autos 50,282 Lossmaker % -14% -24% % 71% Amazon Com Inc US Retail 451, % 225% 50% % 216% Some Mega cap stocks have been priced for exceptional growth Expensive valuation not limited to the US, or to software Source: Schroders as at 12 May Returns in US dollar terms. Securities mentioned are for illustrative purposes only and not a recommendation to buy or sell. 3
5 Growth bubble yet to deflate creating a range of opportunities elsewhere Stock Country Industry Market Cap ($m) Forward EPS Growth (Next Year) Forward P/E Ratio Return on Capital Employed Operating Margin YTD Return (USD) 3 Yr Return (USD) Infosys Ltd IN IT Services 33, % % 24.9% 1.6% 21.6% Novo-Nordisk As DK Pharmaceuticals 104, % % 43.4% 17.6% 3.7% Taiwan Semicon Man TW Semiconductors 176, % % 41.2% 21.7% 84.4% Apple Inc US Hardware 801, % % 26.9% 33.9% 87.6% Unilever Nv NL Consumer Staples 165, % % 15.3% 37.6% 41.5% Source: Schroders as at 24 May Returns in US dollar terms. Securities mentioned are for illustrative purposes only and not a recommendation to buy or sell. 4
6 Financials Focus upon balance sheet strength Funding and Leverage Risk Example criteria used to assess Quality in selected banks US Bank Australian Bank South African Bank Deposits to Net Loans 161% 76% 110% Implied Leverage* Debt to Assets 24% 31% 2% QEP Financials Quality Rank High Quality Low Quality High Quality Source: Schroders. Table data as at 28 February *Implied Leverage is calculated based on Tangible Assets to Tangible Equity. 5
7 Financials US banks currently offer best risk-return, more selective in Europe, cautious elsewhere Price/Tangible Book 3,0 2,5 Reassuringly Expensive US Simple Banks Canada Australia Potential Shorts 2,0 1,5 HK & SG Scandinavia 1,0 US Complex Banks Continental Europe 0,5 UK 6 Opportunity Knocks 0,0 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% High Quality Selective High Risk/Return QEP Global Quality Rank Source: QEP investment team, as of 31 March Price/Tangible Book of the large banks by assets versus QEP Global Quality Rank. Countries mentioned are for illustrative purposes only and not a recommendation to buy or sell. Japan Low Quality Cautious
8 Emerging Markets vs. Developed Markets Trading at a 30% discount 60% Premium or discount of MSCI EM to MSCI World 40% PE PB Important considerations for investors 1. Index concentration buyer beware 2. Be active and be selective 3. Country (and currency) risk matters 20% 0% -20% Expensive -40% -60% Cheap -80% Source: MSCI, 31 January 2000 to 31 March Premium/discount relative to MSCI World 7
9 Emerging Markets Index concentration risk Nearly 50% in just two sectors (financials & technology) Index Weight Sectors Over 50% in just three countries (China, Korea & Taiwan) SOE s account for 25%, and Financials alone account for over 11% 36% 24% Index Weight State Owned Enterprises (SOE)* 16,00% 14,00% 12,00% 10,00% 25% 15% Financials Tech Resources Other Sectors Index Weights Countries non-soe's 75% SOE's 25% 8,00% 6,00% 4,00% 46% 27% 2,00% 0,00% China Other Countries 12% 15% Other Sectors China Korea Taiwan Other countries Source: MSCI as at 31 March *Data for Index Weight SOE is as at 25 February 2016; weight represents percentage of the MSCI EM Index where the Government owns more than 20% of the equity. Sectors and countries mentioned are for illustrative purposes only and not a recommendation to buy or sell. 8 Financials 8
10 Emerging Markets Most sectors attractively valued relative to developed Regional Sector Forward Price-Earnings Multiple Sector Emerging Markets World Health care Cons. Staples Utilities Telecoms Cons. Discretionary Industrials Technology of which: Tech Software of which: Tech Hardware Materials Energy Financials Real Estate Benchmarks Source: Schroders, MSCI as at 31 March Sectors mentioned are for illustrative purposes only and not a recommendation to buy or sell. 9
11 Germany Sweden Denmark Finland Netherlands Taiwan Norway Switzerland Austria Korea Hong Kong Japan Ireland Singapore United Kingdom Czech Republic New Zealand Canada Australia France United States Spain Poland Belgium Israel Thailand Malaysia Italy Philippines Portugal Romania Chile Mexico Hungary China Serbia Indonesia Greece United Arab Emirates Colombia Morocco Kazakhstan Peru India Qatar South Africa Turkey Russia Sri Lanka Vietnam Brazil Saudi Arabia Kenya Kuwait Jordan Argentina Pakistan Oman Egypt Nigeria 05/06/ :33:46 Country Risk Matters QEP approach to evaluating country (and currency) risk 120,0% 100,0% Currency Valuation Currency Credibility Credit Risk Growth Prospects ESG Risk 80,0% 60,0% 40,0% 20,0% 0,0% Source: Schroders. Data as at 23 March Countries mentioned are for illustrative purposes only and not a recommendation to buy or sell. 10
12 Thank you
13 Important information For professional investors and advisers only. The material is not suitable for retail clients. We define "Professional Investors" as those who have the appropriate expertise and knowledge e.g. asset managers, distributors and financial intermediaries. The views and opinions contained herein are those of Tom Mann, CFA, Senior Portfolio Manager. They do not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Schroders communications, strategies or funds and are subject to change. This presentation is intended to be for information purposes only and it is not intended as promotional material in any respect. The material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The material is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations. Information herein is believed to be reliable but Schroder Investment Management Ltd (Schroders) does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. The data has been sourced by Schroders and should be independently verified before further publication or use. No responsibility can be accepted for error of fact or opinion. Reliance should not be placed on the views and information in the document when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. Past Performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested. The forecasts included should not be relied upon, are not guaranteed and are provided only as at the date of issue. Our forecasts are based on our own assumptions which may change. Forecasts and assumptions may be affected by external economic or other factors. Third party data is owned or licensed by the data provider and may not be reproduced or extracted and used for any other purpose without the data provider's consent. Third party data is provided without any warranties of any kind. The data provider and issuer of the document shall have no liability in connection with the third party data. The Prospectus and/or contains additional disclaimers which apply to the third party data. Schroder Unit Trusts Limited. Registration number: 2015/358369/10. (Incorporated in England and Wales). UK
14 Contact Doug Abbott Head of Business Development, South Africa T doug.abbott@schroders.com Schroder Unit Trusts Ltd, South Africa c/o Argon Asset Management (Pty) Ltd 1st Floor, Colinton House The Oval, 1 Oakdale Road Cape Town 7700 schroders.co.za
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