RUNNING OUT OF STEAM: The Environmental Impacts of Tar Sands Mining. D. W. Schindler, U. of Alberta

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1 RUNNING OUT OF STEAM: The Environmental Impacts of Tar Sands Mining D. W. Schindler, U. of Alberta

2 Alberta s oil sands deposits Oil sands areas Extent of Athabasca Wabiskaw-McMurray deposit The Pembina Institute, 2005

3 From IFN workshop materials, March

4 The Tar Sands: A World Record for Unsustainable Development? Energy use = cubic feet of natural gas to extract 1 bbl of bitumen. (Equivalent 1 bbl oil in to extract 2 bbl.) Disturb 150,000 km2 of boreal forest and wetland. Greatest earthmoving project of all time, by far. Use 2-5 bbl water per bbl bitumen. Only 8% of water is returned to Athabasca River. 92% of water goes to tailings ponds (50-70 km2). Emit 40,000,000 tonnes/yr of GHG (CO2 equiv.). Will emit 80,000,000 tonnes of GHG per year by Are predicted to have highest acid deposition in the world. To date, no approved reclamation has been done.

5 WATER: Ground Zero

6 unknown Ave. Annual Runoff, mm <50

8 N. America in a Greenhouse Dominated World? 2 x CO2 Current 4 x CO2

9 Modeled changes in mean annual temperature in the western Canadian Prairie Region (CGCM-2A; CCIS Project, University of Victoria, Canada Mean annual temperature (C) Baseline Mean C from average Year Schindler and Donahue 2006 PNAS

10 Mean annual temperature in Ft. McMurray ( ; Env. Can.) R 2 = 0.26 (+ 2.2 ÞC)

11 Modeled projections for increases in T, ppt, and potential evapotranspiration (PET) in Alberta. T and ppt changes are predicted from multiple global climate models (CCIS Project, U. Vic.), and PET from a basic temperature-precipitation model (Thornthwaite, 1948). Baseline PET ( ) Δ T CGCM-A2 Future PET projections D annual ppt Site Period (mm) ( C) (mm) Pred. Incr. PET Ft Smith Ft Chipewyan Slave Lake Banff Calgary Medicine Hat Lethbridge From D.W. Schindler and W.F. Donahue An Impending Water Crisis in Canadas Western Prairie Provinces. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 103(19):

12 Table 2. Historical changes in yearly persistence and maximum depth of snowpacks in the WPP (Environment Canada CDCD database). Days with snowpack (yr -1 ) Maximum snowpack Site Period Absolute change % Change Absolute change (cm) % Change Ft Smith N/S Ft Chipewyan N/S N/S Slave Lake Banff N/S Calgary N/S Medicine Hat Lethbridge N/S Prince Albert Saskatoon Regina Schindler and Donahue 2006 PNAS

13 Projected scale of change in mean annual temperature for the Ft. WPP: Smith Ft. Smith moves south to (-2.90 C) Calgary Calgary (+3.85 C) ( average)

14 Athabasca Glacier

15 Embarras Ft. McMurray Windfall Athabasca Hinton Jasper Sunwapta River www3.gov.ab.ca/env/water/basins/basinform.cfm

16 Declines in water yield per unit area for subbasins of the Athabasca River. Downstream of Hinton, water yield has declined about 50% in the past 30 years.

19 250 Winter low flows, Athabasca River m 3 sec Slope: -1.5 m 3 sec -1 year Year

20 Sheet ice near Bitumount, 5 April 2007 photo: Spyros Beltaos

21 Winter Dissolved Oxygen in Tribs to the Lower Athabasca, mg/l WSC AWQG Mouth Jackpine M u/s J ActDO u/s Jack ActDO Mouth ActDO Jack Source: Alberta Environment

23 Pembina Institute

24 PTAC 2006

25 Size of the oil sands mined area in Alberta- relative to Lake Erie (2.6 million ha) Kienzle, 2004

26 Other Petroleum 8% Other 9% Oil Sands Mines 76% Municipal 1% Agriculture 1% Industry 4% Commercial 1% Licensed water use from the Athabasca River by sector Source: AMEC

27 8%

28 Source: Brad Stelfox, Forem Consultants

29 16 Cubic Metres Per Secon Kearl Fort Hills Shell Jackpine CNRL Albian Sands Syncrude Suncor Projected maximum water diversions by oil sands mines, Athabasca River Basin Source: AMEC 2007

30 Cubic Decametr 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Low Medium High Projected water use for thermal extraction, Athabasca River Basin Source: AMEC 2007

31 Alberta Environment 2003

32 In 2002, before CNRL and Shell, Oil Sands used % of median low flow

33 Figure A1: Lower Athabasca River IFN indicating flows for the mean year ( ) Yellow Condition Red Condition Weekly Mean Flow Q95 Discharge (m 3 /s) Acrobat Document Source: DFO/AENV 2007 Week #

34 Deviance of January flows from long-term average in Athabasca River at Ft. McMurray ( ). Simple interpretation: During 18 years since the early 1980s, flows have been much lower than average. Deviance from mean January flow (million m3) Greater than average (22) Less than average (25) (Donahue, unpubl.)

35 Source: SE Bayley

37 Area of land disturbed by oil sands operations (square kilometres) Certified as reclaimed 56.3 Area Under Reclamation Current Disturbance Approved Disturbance Planned Disturbance (not approved) Land disturbance and reclamation in the Athabasca oil sands region Alberta Environment

38 Toxic Chemicals of Concern Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) Dibenzothiophenes (DBTs) Naphthenic acids Toxic metals (mercury, arsenic, cadmium, selenium, etc.)

39 Source: Dr. Lyle Lockhart NRBS Study 1994

40 Parrot et al Northern River Basins Study

43 Peace River Flows at Peace Point: a) Monthly Means, b) Monthly Maxima 8 6 a) 4 2 Discharge (m 3 /s)* Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec b) Months Pre-dam ( ) Post-dam ( ) 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Months Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

45 Highest Water in 1996 Spring Flood (Dark Blue). D.L.Peters

48 Summary Summer and winter flows in the Athabasca River, and runoff from its watershed, are declining. Future climate warming will cause further declines in flow. A management plan is needed that will protect the river at both high and low flows. Projected oilsands development will require too much water to sustain the river and the Athabasca Delta. Flow in the Athabasca and Slave Rivers and in water levels in Lake Athabasca will continue to decline. Measures must be taken to reduce consumptive water use and gain the knowledge needed to produce an effective water management plan A thorough study is needed of chemical releases from the oilsands and the exposure of downstream residents.

2017 Annual Alberta Regional Labour Market Review

2017 Annual Alberta Regional Labour Market Review Wood Buffalo-Cold Lake. Lethbridge-Medicine Hat Banff-Jasper-Rocky Mountain House and Athabasca-Grande Prairie-Peace River Edmonton. Red Deer. Calgary.