The Jeypore Sugar Company Ltd
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1 Q1FY12 Result Update Enhancing investment decisions CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved.
2 Explanation of CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation (CFV) matrix The CFV Matrix (CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation Matrix) addresses the two important analysis of an investment making process Analysis of Fundamentals (addressed through Fundamental Grade) and Analysis of Returns (Valuation Grade) The fundamental grade is assigned on a five-point scale from grade 5 (indicating Excellent fundamentals) to grade 1 (Poor fundamentals) The valuation grade is assigned on a five-point scale from grade 5 (indicating strong upside from the current market price (CMP)) to grade 1 (strong downside from the CMP). CRISIL Fundamental Grade Assessment CRISIL Valuation Grade Assessment 5/5 Excellent fundamentals 5/5 Strong upside (>25% from CMP) 4/5 Superior fundamentals 4/5 Upside (1-25% from CMP) 3/5 Good fundamentals 3/5 Align (+-1% from CMP) 2/5 Moderate fundamentals 2/5 Downside (- 1-25% from CMP) 1/5 Poor fundamentals 1/5 Strong downside (<-25% from CMP) Analyst Disclosure Each member of the team involved in the preparation of the grading report, hereby affirms that there exists no conflict of interest that can bias the grading recommendation of the company. Additional Disclosure This report has been sponsored by NSE - Investor Protection Fund Trust (NSEIPFT). Disclaimer: This Exchange-commissioned Report (Report) is based on data publicly available or from sources considered reliable by CRISIL (Data). However, CRISIL does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of the Data / Report and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of Data / Report. The Data / Report are subject to change without any prior notice. Opinions expressed herein are our current opinions as on the date of this Report. Nothing in this Report constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice or any solicitation, whatsoever. The Report is not a recommendation to buy / sell or hold any securities of the Company. CRISIL especially states that it has no financial liability, whatsoever, to the subscribers / users of this Report. This Report is for the personal information only of the authorized recipient in India only. This Report should not be reproduced or redistributed or communicated directly or indirectly in any form to any other person especially outside India or published or copied in whole or in part, for any purpose. CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved.
3 Strong revenue growth Fundamental Grade Valuation Grade Industry 2/5 (Moderate fundamentals) 2/5 (CMP has downside) Food products The Jeypore Sugar Company Ltd s (Jeypore Sugar s) results were broadly in line with CRISIL Research s expectations. Q1FY12 revenues increased by 4% y-o-y as the company liquidated the inventory built up in Q4FY11. The new plant at Pothavaram, Andhra Pradesh does not seem to have commenced production as the depreciation levels remained flat y-o-y. We have not been able to confirm from the management about production in Q4FY11, cost of production and the details of commissioning of its new plant. We expect sugar prices to remain firm at Rs per kg in H2 of SS21-11 (October 21 to September 211). and at Rs 27-3 per kg in SS (October 211 to September 212). We maintain our earnings estimates and the fundamental grade of 2/5. Q1FY12 result analysis Revenues increased 4% y-o-y and 1% q-o-q to Rs 757 mn as the company liquidated its inventory built up during Q4FY11. The inventory at Q4FY11-end was 32% higher than that at Q4FY1-end. EBITDA margin expanded from.1% in Q1FY11 to 8.% in Q1FY12 due to higher realisations. The depreciation of the company remained stagnant at Rs 15 mn indicating that the Pothavaram plant was not commissioned during this quarter. The interest expenses increased 37% y-o-y on account of higher interest rates. However, it declined 12% q-o-q indicating that the company might have repaid certain portion of its debt. The net loss of the company declined from Rs 7 mn in Q1FY11 to Rs 3 mn in Q1FY12. Valuations: Current market price has downside We continue to use the P/BV method to value Jeypore Sugar. We have assigned P/BV multiple of.7x and maintain our fair value of Rs 11 per share. KEY FORECAST (Rs mn) FY8 FY9 FY1 FY11# FY12E Operating income 1,944 1,792 2,42 2,15 3,568 EBITDA Adj PAT (75) (7) 192 (92) 66 Adj EPS-Rs (16.6) (1.5) 42.3 (2.4) 14.5 EPS growth (%) NM NM NM NM NM Dividend yield (%) RoCE (%) RoE (%) NM NM 29.1 NM 9.5 P/E (x) NM NM 4.5 NM 8.7 P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) #FY11 numbers are based on abridged financials NM: Not meaningful; CMP: Current market price Source: Company, CRISIL Research estimate August 5, 211 Fair Value Rs 11 CMP Rs 125 CFV MATRIX KEY STOCK STATISTICS NIFTY 5332 NSE JEYPORE Face value (Rs per share) 1 Shares outstanding (mn) 4.5 Market cap (Rs mn)/(us$ mn) 569/13 Enterprise value (Rs mn) /(US$ mn) 3,553/8 52-week range (Rs) (H/L) 24/97 Beta.97 Free float (%) 55.2 Avg daily volumes (3-days) 329 Avg daily value (3-days) (Rs mn) SHAREHOLDING PATTERN % 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Excellent Fundamentals Fundamental Grade Poor Fundamentals % PERFORMANCE VIS-À-VIS MARKET Returns 1-m 3-m 6-m 12-m JEYPORE 8% 6% -16% -38% NIFTY -6% -4% -1.2% -2.5% ANALYTICAL CONTACT Chetan Majithia (Head) chetanmajithia@crisil.com Suresh Guruprasad Onkar Kulkarni Strong Downside Valuation Grade 54.5% 54.5% 54.5% 54.5%.8%.8%.7%.7% 44.8% 44.8% 44.8% 44.8% sguruprasad@crisil.com okulkarni@crisil.com Strong Upside Sep-1 Dec-1 Jun-11 Promoter DII Others Client servicing desk clientservicing@crisil.com CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved. CRISIL RESEARCH 1
4 Q1FY12 Result Summary (Rs mn) Q1FY12 Q4FY11 Q1FY11 q-o-q (%) y-o-y (%) Net sales % 4% Raw materials cost % 25% Raw materials cost (% of net sales) 79.9%.2% 89.8% 7,968bps (994)bps Employee cost % 22% Other expenses % 14% EBITDA % NM EBITDA margin 8.% 35.2%.1% (2,722)bps 796bps Depreciation % 3% EBIT % NM Interest and finance charges % 37% Operating PBT % NM Other Income % 131% Extraordinary Income/(expense) NM NM PBT % NM Tax -22 NM NM PAT NM NM Adj PAT NM NM Adj PAT margin -3.9% 17.5% -12.9% NM NM No of equity shares (mn) Adj EPS (Rs) NM NM Strong growth in sales - up 4% y-o-y Source: Company, CRISIL Research Sale and EBITDA margin PAT and PAT margin (Rs mn) 8 7% % 26% 4 3 % % 14% % 8% % 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% (Rs mn) 15 12% 12% 3% % -7-3% -12-3% % 121-4% -3 2% 1% % -1% -2% -3% -4% Sep-1 Dec-1 Jun-11 Sep-1 Dec-1 Jun-11 Net Sales EBITDA Margin (RHS) PAT PAT Margin (RHS) Source: Company, CRISIL Research Source: Company, CRISIL Research Share price movement Fair value since initiation 35 (Rs) (') Jul-9 Nov-9 Jan-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 May-11 Dec-1 Dec-1 Dec-1 Feb-11 Feb-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jun-11 -indexed to Jeypore NIFTY Traded Quantity (RHS) CRISIL Fair Value Jeypore CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved. CRISIL RESEARCH 2
5 VALUATION We continue to value Jeypore Sugar using the P/BV method. We assign P/BV multiple of.7x to FY12E book value of Rs 159 and maintain our fair value of We maintain the fair value of Rs 11 Rs 11 per share. Our valuation grade is 2/5. One-year forward P/B band (Rs) One-year forward EV/EBITDA band (Rs mn) 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Mar-7 Jul-7 Oct-7 Jan-8 Apr-8 Aug-8 Nov-8 Feb-9 Oct-1 Mar-7 Jul-7 Oct-7 Jan-8 Apr-8 Aug-8 Nov-8 Feb-9 Oct-1 Jeypore.5x 1x 1.5x 2x 2.5x Jeypore 3x 5x 7x 9x P/B premium/discount to NIFTY P/B movement -76% -78% -8% -82% -84% -86% -88% -9% -92% -94% -96% -98% std dev -1 std dev Mar-7 Jul-7 Oct-7 Jan-8 Apr-8 Aug-8 Nov-8 Feb-9 Oct-1 Mar-7 Jul-7 Oct-7 Jan-8 Apr-8 Aug-8 Nov-8 Feb-9 Oct-1 Premium/Discount to NIFTY Median premium/discount to NIFTY 1yr Fwd PB (x) Median PB CRISIL IER reports released on The Jeypore Sugar Company Ltd Date Nature of report Fundamental grade Fair value Valuation grade CMP (on the date of report) 2-Dec-1 Initiating coverage* 2/5 Rs 152 3/5 Rs Feb-11 Q3FY11 result update 2/5 Rs 152 3/5 Rs June-11 Q4FY11 result update 2/5 Rs 11 3/5 Rs 5-Aug-11 Q1FY12 result update 2/5 Rs 11 2/5 Rs 125 * For detailed initiating coverage report please visit: CRISIL Independent Equity Research reports are also available on Bloomberg (CRI <go>) and Thomson Reuters. CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved. CRISIL RESEARCH 3
6 FINANCIALS Income statement Balance Sheet (Rs mn) FY8 FY9 FY1 FY11# FY12E (Rs mn) FY8 FY9 FY1 FY11# FY12E Operating income 1,944 1,792 2,42 2,15 3,568 Liabilities EBITDA Equity share capital EBITDA margin 1.5% 2.3% 25.4% 11.4% 19.4% Reserves Depreciation Minorities EBIT Net worth Interest Convertible debt Operating PBT (86) (3) 269 (119) 86 Other debt 1,99 2,424 2,836 3,167 2,967 Other income Total debt 1,99 2,424 2,836 3,167 2,967 Exceptional inc/(exp) Deferred tax liability (net) PBT (67) (115) 94 Total liabilities 2,649 3,123 3,699 3,919 3,785 Tax provision (5) (22) 28 Assets Minority interest Net fixed assets 1,446 1,384 1,33 1,219 3,483 PAT (Reported) (61) (92) 66 Capital WIP 1,226 1,848 2,189 2, Less: Exceptionals Total fixed assets 2,672 3,233 3,519 3,838 3,613 Adjusted PAT (75) (7) 192 (92) 66 Investments #FY11 numbers are based on abridged financials Note: All ratios are computed on Adj PAT Source: Company, CRISIL Research estimate Current assets Ratios Inventory 1,915 1,78 1,574 2,77 2,564 FY8 FY9 FY1 FY11# FY12E Sundry debtors Growth Loans and advances ,33 Operating income (%) NM NM 35. (13.) 69.5 Cash & bank balance EBITDA (%) NM NM Marketable securities Adj PAT (%) NM NM NM NM NM Total current assets 2,642 2,366 2,169 2,999 4,62 Adj EPS (%) NM NM NM NM NM Total current liabilities 2,682 2,487 1,995 2,924 3,896 Net current assets (41) (121) Profitability Intangibles/Misc. expenditure EBITDA margin (%) Total assets 2,649 3,123 3,699 3,919 3,785 Adj PAT Margin (%) NM NM 7.9 NM 1.8 RoE (%) NM NM 29.1 NM 9.5 Cash flow RoCE (%) (Rs mn) FY8 FY9 FY1 FY11# FY12E RoIC (%) Pre-tax profit (81) (115) 94 Total tax paid (1) (2) (9) () (28) Valuations Depreciation Price-earnings (x) NM NM 4.5 NM 8.7 Working capital changes 352 (2) (242) 158 (29) Price-book (x) Net cash from operations EV/EBITDA (x) Cash from investments EV/Sales (x) Capital expenditure (1,241) (671) (394) (43) - Dividend payout ratio (%) NM Investments and others - - () - - Dividend yield (%) Net cash from investments (1,241) (671) (394) (43) - Cash from financing B/S ratios Equity raised/(repaid) Inventory days Debt raised/(repaid) (2) Creditors days Dividend (incl. tax) (5) (5) (26) - - Debtor days Others (incl extraordinaries) () Working capital days (7) (41) (11) (5) (1) Net cash from financing (2) Gross asset turnover (x) Change in cash position 21 () Net asset turnover (x) Closing cash Sales/operating assets (x) Current ratio (x) Quarterly financials Debt-equity (x) (Rs mn) Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY12 Net debt/equity (x) Net sales Interest coverage Change (q-o-q) 62% -18% -3% 6% 1% EBITDA.3 (66) Per share Change (q-o-q) -% NM NM 289% -75% FY8 FY9 FY1 FY11# FY12E EBITDA margin % -15% 14% 35% 8% Adj EPS (Rs) (16.6) (1.5) 42.3 (2.4) 14.5 PAT (7) (131) (12) 121 (3) CEPS Adj PAT (7) (131) (12) 121 (3) Book value Change (q-o-q) NM NM NM NM -125% Dividend (Rs) Adj PAT margin -12.9% -29.5% -2.9% 17.5% -3.9% Actual o/s shares (mn) Adj EPS (15.4) (29.) (2.7) 26.7 (6.6) CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved. CRISIL RESEARCH 4
7 CRISIL Research Team Senior Director Mukesh Agarwal +91 (22) Analytical Contacts Tarun Bhatia Director, Capital Markets +91 (22) Prasad Koparkar Head, Industry & Customised Research +91 (22) Chetan Majithia Head, Equities +91 (22) Sudhir Nair Head, Equities +91 (22) Jiju Vidyadharan Head, Funds & Fixed Income Research +91 (22) Ajay D'Souza Head, Industry Research +91 (22) Ajay Srinivasan Head, Industry Research +91 (22) Sridhar C Head, Industry Research +91 (22) sridharc@crisil.com Manoj Mohta Head, Customised Research +91 (22) mmohta@crisil.com Business Development Vinaya Dongre Head, Industry & Customised Research +91 (22) vdongre@crisil.com Ashish Sethi Head, Capital Markets +91 (22) asethi@crisil.com CRISIL s Equity Offerings The Equity Group at CRISIL Research provides a wide range of services including: Independent Equity Research IPO Grading White Labelled Research Valuation on companies for use of Institutional Investors, Asset Managers, Corporate Other services by the Research group include Funds & Fixed Income Research Mutual fund rankings Wealth Tracking and Financial Planning tools for asset managers, wealth managers and IFAs Valuation for all debt instruments Developing and maintaining debt and hybrid indices Consultancy and research support to retirement funds Industry & Customized Research Provide comprehensive research coverage across 65 sectors Customised research on market sizing, demand modelling and entry strategies Customised research content for Information Memorandum and Offer Documents CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved.
8 About CRISIL Limited CRISIL is a global analytical company providing ratings, research, and risk and policy advisory services. We are India's leading ratings agency. We are also the foremost provider of high-end research to the world's largest banks and leading corporations. About CRISIL Research CRISIL Research is the country s largest independent and integrated research house with strong domain expertise on Indian economy, industries and capital markets. We leverage our unique research platform and capabilities to deliver superior perspectives and insights to over 12 domestic and global clients, through a range of research reports, analytical tools, subscription products and customised solutions. To know more about CRISIL IER, please contact our team members: Vinaya Dongre Head, Business Development vdongre@crisil.com I Phone : Ashish Sethi Head, Business Development asethi@crisil.com I Phone : Sagar Sawarkar Senior Manager, Business Development ssawarkar@crisil.com I Phone : Regional Contacts: Ahmedabad / Mumbai Vishal Shah - Manager, Business Development vishah@crisil.com I Phone : Bengaluru Gayathri Ananth Senior Manager, Business Development gs@crisil.com I Phone : Kolkata / Delhi Priyanka Agarwal - Manager, Business Development priyagarwal@crisil.com I Phone : Mumbai / Pune Vivek Tandon - Manager, Business Development vtandon@crisil.com I Phone : Chennai / Hyderabad Kaliprasad Ponnuru - Manager, Business Development kponnuru@crisil.com I Phone : Head Office: CRISIL House, Central Avenue, Hiranandani Business Park, Powai, Mumbai Phone : CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved. Web: Download reports from:
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