Soft volume growth, cautious outlook

Transcription

1 BSE Sensex S&P CNX 25,228 7, June 2014 Annual Report Update Sector: Consumer Hindustan Unilever CMP: INR634 TP: INR600 Sell Soft volume growth, cautious outlook Improved profitability and return ratios Stock Info Bloomberg HUVR IN Equity Shares (m) 2, Week Range (INR) 725/536 1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) 4/-9/-27 M.Cap. (INR b) 1,371.5 M.Cap. (USD b) 23.0 Financial Snapshot (INR Billion) Y/E March 2015E 2016E 2017E Net Sales EBITDA Adj PAT EPS (INR) Growth (%) BV/Sh. (INR) RoE (%) RoCE (%) P/E (x) P/BV (x) Shareholding pattern (%) As on Mar-14 Dec-13 Mar-13 Promoter Dom. Inst Foreign Others Stock Performance (1-year) Key takeaways from HUVR s FY14 annual report are: Volume growth remains soft; discretionary categories impacted more. Personal Products growth at a decade low. Product portfolio innovation and distribution expansion were the key focus areas. Expensive valuation (31.6x FY16E and 28.4x FY17E EPS) coupled with subdued demand environment underscores our Sell rating. Domestic volume growth at multi-year low; broad-based slowdown HUVR s sales growth moderated to 8.6% in FY14 (INR280b), with continued slowdown across categories, channels and geographies. Volume growth of 4% was the lowest since FY09. Soaps & Detergent and Personal Products segments posted sales growth of 7.7% and 8.7% respectively, while Beverages registered double digit revenue growth. Soaps and Detergents contributed 45% of incremental value growth, while PP contributed 30%. Gross and EBITDA margins expand 110bp and 50bp respectively Gross margin expanded 110bp at 48.8% in FY14 led by price hikes, cost containment and curtailment of promotions, in our view. EBITDA margin expanded by 50bp as better gross margin was offset by higher ad spends (up 40bp). Soaps and Detergents EBIT margin expanded 40bp YoY despite increased competitive activity due to robust cost saving programmes and judicious pricing initiatives. PP EBIT margin contracted 60bp YoY primarily driven by a slowdown in discretionary consumption and increased competitive intensity. Recurring PAT grew 14.1% to INR36.4b. Balance sheet: working capital cycle improves, RoE expands HUL s working capital improved marginally by five days led by higher payables and lower receivables. RoE also improved from 103% to 122% YoY led by better asset turnover. Dividend payout ratio, excluding taxes, stood at 77.3%. Product innovation and distribution expansion: key focus area of FY14 During FY14, company added 1m stores to its existing network (total reach stands - 3m stores) with increased reach across urban and rural markets and also extended its Perfect Stores initiative to 1m stores. Innovation was a key focus with nearly 2/3rd of its product offerings being re-launched/re-staged. Valuation and view Volume growth in low single digit seems competitive, but it does not justify the premium valuations the stock commands, in our view. Continued softening in PP margins has long term profitability implications, in our view. Going forward, recovery in F&L holds the key for margins. Valuation (31.6x FY16E and 28.4x FY17E) still remains expensive. Maintain Sell with a target price of INR600 (30x FY16E EPS). Gautam Duggad (Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com); Manish Poddar (Manish.Poddar@MotilalOswal.com); Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.

2 Domestic volume growth at multi-year low; broad-based slowdown HUVR posted sales of INR280b in FY14 with sales growth moderating to 8.6% on continued slowdown across categories, channels and geographies. Soaps and Detergents contributed 45% of incremental value growth, while Personal Products contributed 30%. Sales growth moderated during FY14 Volume growth for FY14 lowest in five years Sales (INR b) Sales Gr (%) Volume gr (%) FY09 Volume growth for FY14 was 4%, lowest in five years. Weak macro environment coupled with poor consumer sentiments impacted performance. EBIT margin for Soaps and Detergents expanded 40bp driven by price increases, while margins for Personal Products contracted 60bp led by mix deterioration (lower growth in FAL) and higher brand investments in Oral Care. Sales growth slowed down across all segments Segmental FY09 Net Sales (INR m) Soaps and Detergents 81,464 82,656 87, , , ,834 Personal Products 43,657 50,479 58,441 68,459 74,717 81,209 Beverages 18,685 21,424 23,440 26,174 29,747 33,119 Processed Foods 6,563 7,308 9,026 13,595 15,057 16,483 Others 651 3,467 4,380 6,364 10,928 11,563 Net sales growth (%) Soaps and Detergents Personal Products Beverages Processed Foods EBIT (INR m) Soaps and Detergents 12,492 11,853 8,341 12,333 16,155 17,858 Personal Products 11,832 12,965 14,948 17,446 19,489 20,681 Beverages 2,547 3,198 3,578 3,667 4,746 5,807 Processed Foods Ice Creams EBIT Margin (%) Soaps and Detergents Personal Products Beverages Processed Foods June

3 Home and Personal Care A. Soaps and Detergents: growth moderates to single digit Soaps and Detergent segment sales growth moderated to 7.7% in FY14 (v/s 19.4% in FY13), with underlying volume growth of 5%. EBIT margin expanded 40bp YoY despite increased competitive activity due to cost saving initiatives, lower promotions and price hikes. Soaps: The segment posted healthy volume-led growth, while overall category volumes declined. HUVR initiated several pricing actions across brands to combat rising PFAD prices (up 23% YoY). Promotions/freebies were taken off in 4QFY14 due to adverse raw material movement. Detergents: The category growth rate slowed down along with moderation in the rate of premiumization. However, for HUVR, premiumization continued with double digit growth in Surf (driven by Surf Excel Easy Wash). Wheel was relaunched and picked up pace in 2HFY14, while Rin underperformed. Other categories such as Machine Wash (Surf Excel Matic) and Fabric Conditioners (Comfort) delivered healthy performance in FY14. Household Care segment posted robust double digit volume-led growth. Multiple themes of penetration and premiumization were strengthened by innovations such as Anti-Germ mix (bars and liquids) and the monthly tub pack under the Vim brand (now an INR10b brand). Company extended its dish wash bars portfolio offerings across price points to enhance its rural reach. S&D revenue clock 15.9% CAGR in last three years PP posted lowest revenue growth since FY04 Soaps and Detergents (INR b) EBIT Margin (%) Personal Products (INR b) EBIT Margin (%) Volume growth has decelerated across categories over the last three years Volume growth (%) Sales growth (%) Category FY12 FY13 FY14 FY12 FY13 FY14 Soaps and Detergents Personal Products Beverages Processed Foods Company June

4 B. Personal Products: weakness persists, sales growth at decade low Personal Products sales growth moderated further to 8.9% in FY14 (v/s 14.1% in FY13), the lowest in a decade. Underlying volume growth in PP was a meager 4%. Performance was impacted by weak discretionary consumption and underperformance of Fair and Lovely (FAL). EBIT margin contracted 60bp YoY primarily led by weaker sales mix due to slower growth in Skin Care and increased competitive intensity in Oral Care. Skin Care segment posted modest growth in a slowing market, with the relaunch of FAL (in August 2013) performing as per management expectation. FAL was facing issues due to lower product acceptance in some of the media dark areas when its color was changed from white to pink. Other brands such as Vaseline (Healthy White delivered double digit growth), Dove and Lakme (driven by innovations) delivered strong performance during FY14. Hair Care recorded strong volume-led double digit growth, with Dove, Sunsilk and Clinic Plus growing at a double digit rate. The TRESemme portfolio performed well (now an INR1b brand within second year of its launch) and is not cannibalizing sales from existing brands, as per management. Company is witnessing some signs of down-trading with sachets portfolio outgrowing bottles portfolio. Oral Care growth moderated with increased competitive intensity. To reinitiate growth and maintain market shares, company initiated several measures such as a) re-launch of Pepsodent GermiCheck, b) Exciting activations under the Closeup portfolio and c) Pruning and sharpening of toothbrushes portfolio. Deodorants portfolio posted dismal performance, with Axe posting market share loss, as per Nielsen. HUVR plans to launch strong activation programmes for FY15. Cosmetics segment posted strong sales growth, with Lakme Colors growing in double digits. Over the last two years, the premium segment s contribution for Makeup has grown well with strong innovations and expansion of footprint across the retail channel. 13 June

5 Food and Beverages: robust improvement in profitability Sales growth moderated to 10.7%, with margin expansion due to price/mix initiatives. Beverages segment recorded 12% revenue growth led by double digit broadbased growth in the Tea portfolio, with Taj Mahal and 3 Roses driving premiumization, while Red Label and Taaza recruiting new consumers from unbranded segment. Coffee segment was impacted due to steep commodity inflation (in 1HFY14) and reduced consumption levels (primarily in the core South markets). However, company s premium offering - Bru Gold - is gaining good traction and grew ahead of markets. EBIT margin expanded 150bp YoY due to mix improvement and soft raw material environment. Packaged Foods delivered 10% sales growth led by strong performance in Kissan (double digit growth led by product activation) and Knorr (Single serve format doing well). Frozen Desserts segment sales slowed down due to reduced discretionary spends and a shorter season. Cornetto grew ahead of the market with increased distribution and brand spends. Given its positive initial response, Magnum, company s premium ice-cream offering was initially test piloted in Chennai and has been rolled out to four more cities during FY14. EBIT margin expanded 130bp YoY led by pricing initiatives, cost containment measures and improvement in product mix. Beverages delivered strong margin expansion Packaged Foods profitability improved too Beverages (INR b) EBIT Margin (%) Processed Foods (INR b) EBIT Margin (%) June

6 Other key highlights Product innovations and distribution were the key focus areas in FY14 Product innovations: During FY14, nearly 60% of the portfolio was innovated/re-launched. 60% of the portfolio innovated in FY14 Category Soaps Detergents Household Care Personal Products i. Details i. Rexona was re-launched with a new formula, based on superior skin feel and lathering i. Company re-launched Rin and Wheel. ii. Launched Surf Excel Liquid Detergent i. Launched Domex Zero Stain ii. Vim innovated with Anti Germ Mix anti bacterial technology offering. Fair & Lovely was re-launched with a new mix (Best Ever Formula). A new SPF15 vanishing cream variant, based on sunscreen dispersion technology, was launched in a revolutionary pump tube ii. Vaseline Healthy White was re-launched with a new multivitamin plus optics formula Launched Ponds BB+ cream to leverage on the global beauty trend catering to consumers looking for instant optical iii. radiance. Dove hair-care portfolio re-launched intense Repair variant re-launched, new split ends rescue variant launched; Hair Care i. new variants of TRESemme and Sunsilk launched. TRESeme sachets launched. Oral Care Deodorant Skin Care Beverages Frozen Desserts Water ii. Premium variant of Clinic Plus oil. i. Launch of Pepsodent Germicheck i. Two new variants of Axe deodorant and one new variant of Lux deodorant were launched. i. Initiated Lakme Pro-Stylist range i. Launch of Green Tea under the Lipton and Taj Mahal brands and masala variant under the Taaza brand i. Magnum launched in Chennai and later on expanded to four more cities i. Launched dual technology RO+UV water purifier under the Pureit Ultima range. Distribution expansion initiatives: Company further expanded its distribution reach in FY14. a) HUVR added 1m stores to its existing network across urban and rural markets. b) It also extended its Perfect Stores initiative to 1m stores by CY13-end. c) Rural continues to be a key area of focus with the company reaching to about 8,500 villages across India to improve the health and hygiene of children, through school contact and Mohalla programmes. d) Company expanded its Shakti Entrepreneurs (Shakti-ammas) network by adding 17,000 individuals during the year (total network of 65,000). e) HUVR initiated a new low cost distribution model to leverage the increasing penetration of mobile phones among the bottom-of-the-pyramid retailers by taking orders through tele-calling, resulting in time and cost savings. f) Project Xpress, the rural distribution alliance with Tata Teleservices for distributing its telecom products through HUVR s distribution network, helped in enhancing the earnings of channel partners (including Shaktiammas). HUVR is nationally distributing telecom products to 75,000 telecom outlets through its distribution network. 13 June

7 Management change: Mr Sanjiv Mehta took over the company s leadership from Mr Nitin Paranjpe who was promoted to the Unilever Leadership Executive as President, Home Care. Also, effective July 1, 2014, Mr P B Balaji would be appointed as Executive Director, Finance & IT and Chief Financial Officer. Management change during FY14 Name Mr Sanjiv Mehta Mr Nitin Paranjpe Details Oct 2013: Managing Director and CEO, HUVR 2008: Chairman of Unilever North Africa and Middle East 2007: Chairman and CEO of Unilever Philippines 2002: Appointed Chairman and Managing Director of Unilever Bangladesh 1992: Joined Unilever Previously worked for Union Carbide India Promoted to Unilever Leadership Executive as President Home Care Open offer: During the year, Unilever PLC though the open offer route, increased its shareholding in the company from 52.5% to 67.3%. Dividend: During FY14, HUVR approved cumulative dividends of INR13 per share, with INR5.5 of interim dividend and INR7.5 as final dividend. Dividend history (INR) FY FY FY FY FY June

8 Financial performance RoE improved, WC cycle reduces by five days Volatile commodity prices, competitive intensity are key headwinds: Volatile commodity prices remain a key risk to HUVR, in our view. PFAD prices have corrected by 9% from the peak but are still up 15% YoY. LAB prices and HDPE prices have increased by 10% and 24% respectively in the last 12 months. Packaging costs are up 13% and have expanded 30bp YoY in FY14. Gross margin expanded 110bp at 48.8% in FY14 led by price hikes and curtailment of promotions, in our view. EBITDA margin expanded 50bp, as better gross margin was partially offset by higher ad spends (up 40bp). LAB prices up 10% YoY PFAD prices up 15% YoY LAB Prices (INR/Kg) Palm Fatty Acid (USD/MT) Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Source: Bloomberg, MOSL Source: Bloomberg, MOSL HDPE prices increased 24% YoY Packaging cost expanded 30bp in the current fiscal Liquid Paraffin (INR/Lt)-LHS HDPE (INR/kg)-RHS Packaging Material (%) Mar-09 Jul-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 Aug-10 Dec-10 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Aug-13 Dec-13 Apr-14 Source: Bloomberg, MOSL 13 June

9 Gross margin expands 110bp in FY14 Gross Margin (%) EBITDA margin expanded 50bp in FY14 EBITDA Margin (%) A&P spends up 40bp in FY14 Royalty expenses expanded 40bp in line with guidance 14.3 Ad Spends (%) Royalty (%) EBITDA grew 11.8% in FY14, with 50bp margin expansion PAT grew 14.1% in FY EBITDA (INR b) EBITDA gr (%) PAT (INR b) PAT gr (%) Overall working capital cycle improved five days over FY13, led by reduction in debtor days and higher payables. Debtor days reduced from 12.1 days sales in FY13 to 10.9 days in FY14, led by rising share of modern trade and premium launches through modern trade. RoE improved from 101% in FY13 to 122% in FY14, led by an improvement in asset turnover ratio. Dividend payout stood at 77.5%, excluding tax. HUVR spent INR4.68b on capex during FY14 (INR3.5b in FY13). It has expanded its gross block by 1.7x since FY09 to INR49b. 13 June

10 Free cash flow generation remained robust Capex as a percentage of sales remained in a band FCF/Sales (%) Capex/Sales (%) Valuation and view: expensive valuation; maintain Sell Volume growth at 4% seems competitive, but it does not justify the premium valuation it commands, in our view. Continued softening in PP margins has long term profitability implications, in our view. Going forward, recovery in F&L holds the key for margins. Valuation (31.6x FY16E and 28.4x FY17E) still remains expensive despite recent underperformance. Maintain Sell with a target price of INR600 (30x FY16E EPS). Revival in consumer sentiment is a key upside risk. P/E is trading at 20% discount to its peak levels PE (x) Peak(x) Avg(x) Min(x) May-04 Aug-05 Nov-06 Feb-08 May-09 Aug-10 Nov-11 Feb-13 May-14 P/E relative to Sensex (x) Hind. Unilever PE Relative to Sensex PE (%) 200 LPA (%) May-04 Aug-05 Nov-06 Feb-08 May Aug-10 Nov-11 Feb May June

11 Financials and valuations Income statement (INR Billion) Y/E March E 2016E 2017E Net Sales Change (%) EBITDA EBITDA Margin (%) Depreciation EBIT Interest Other Income PBT Tax Tax Rate (%) Profit After Taxes Non-rec. (Exp)/Income Reported PAT Change (%) Balance sheet (INR Billion) Y/E March E 2016E 2017E Share Capital Reserves Net Worth Debt Deferred Tax Total Capital Employed Gross Fixed Assets Less: Acc Depreciation Net Fixed Assets Capital WIP Investments Current Assets Inventory Debtors Cash & Bank Loans & Adv, Others Curr Liabs & Provns Curr. Liabilities Provisions Net Current Assets Total Assets E: MOSL Estimates 13 June

12 Financials and valuations Hindustan Unilever Ratios Y/E March E 2016E 2017E Basic (INR) EPS Cash EPS Book Value DPS Payout (incl. Div. Tax.) Valuation (x) P/E Cash P/E Price / Book Value EV/Sales EV/EBITDA Dividend Yield (%) Profitability Ratios (%) RoE RoCE Cash flow statement (INR Billion) Y/E March E 2016E 2017E OP/(Loss) before Tax Interest Direct Taxes Paid (Inc)/Dec in Wkg Cap Others Extraordinary items (net) CF from Op. Activity (Inc)/Dec in FA & CWIP (Pur)/Sale of Invt CF from Inv. Activity Inc/(Dec) in Net Worth Inc / (Dec) in Debt Other Financing Activities Divd Paid (incl Tax) CF from Fin. Activity Inc/(Dec) in Cash Add: Opening Balance Closing Balance E: MOSL Estimates 13 June

13 N O T E S 13 June

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