ANRPC. Volume 1 No. 8. October 2009 FOREWORD. Prof. Dr. Djoko Said Damardjati Secretary General. A monthly statistical bulletin of

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1 ANRPC ANRPC Monthly Bulletin of Rubber Statistics A monthly statistical bulletin of Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries 7 th Floor, Bangunan Getah Asli (Menara), 148 Jalan Ampang, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia Tel: ; Fax: ; anrpc@streamyx.com Website: Members: Cambodia, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Vietnam Contact Persons: Prof. Dr. Djoko Said Damardjati, Secretary General Volume 1 No. 8 FOREWORD I am happy to present the 8 th issue of the ANRPC Monthly Bulletin of Rubber Statistics. Contents in this issue are limited to statistical data alone, rather providing a description of the trends and causes, as usually provided. This is because this small Secretariat is preoccupied with the preparations for the 32 nd Session of the ANRPC Assembly, 37 th Meeting of the Executive Committee and the meeting of two technical committees apart from Annual Rubber Conference 2009, to be held during 2-7 November 2009 in Ho Chi Minh City. I take this opportunity to extend ANRPC s gratitude to Mr. Wimal Rubasingha, Director-General of Sri Lanka s Rubber Development Department, who got transferred to another Ministry. The Association received immense support from Mr. Wimal in his capacity as the statistical correspondent for Sri Lanka. I would like to congratulate Mr. R. B. Premadasa who has just been appointed as the Director-General. Before I conclude, I would like to acknowledge the valuable support and cooperation received from all Member Governments in publishing this issue of the Bulletin. I look forward to seeing many of you in Ho Chi Minh City. Prof. Dr. Djoko Said Damardjati Secretary General Jom Jacob, Senior Economist C O N T E N T S October 2009 Fall in NR Supply Accelerates 5.1% 2 Export of NR 2 Average Yield 3 Trends in Crude Petroleum Oil Prices 4 Trends in NR Prices 5 Table 1: Production of NR in Member Countries 6 Table 2: Consumption of NR in Member Countries 6 Table 3: Gross Export of NR from Member Countries 7 Table 4: Gross Import of NR in Member Countries 7 Table 5: Stock of NR with Member Countries 8 Table 6: Area under Cultivation and under Tapping 8 Table 7: Area Planted in Member Countries 8

2 FALL IN NATURAL RUBBER SUPPLY ACCELERATES 5.1% Review up to SEPTEMBER 2009 Data of the global production of the natural rubber (NR) available up to September 2009 reveal that the falling trend in global supply accelerated. Total output in the seven countries accounting 93% of the global supply fell 5.1% in the 12 months to September 2009 as compared to the year ended December The output fall in the 12 months to August 2009 was 3.7% only. The following table gives a consolidated picture of change in production in each country during this year from the same period in the previous year: Change in Production in 2009 from 2008 Thousand tonnes % change Thailand (January-August) % Indonesia (January- July) % Malaysia (January-September) % India (January-September) % Vietnam (January-September) % China (January-September) % Sri Lanka (January-September) % Source: Reported by respective governments. Trends in production in each country from 2005 to 2009 are summarised in the table below: Trends in Production of NR (Thousand tonnes) Thailand Indonesia Malaysia India Vietnam China Sri Lanka Total refers to 12-months to 30 September except for Thailand and Indonesia. The reference period is 12-months to 31 August for Thailand and 12-months to 31 July for Indonesia. Source: Reported by respective governments. Annual rates of growth in production of NR are given in the following table: Rate of Growth in NR Production (%) Thailand Indonesia Malaysia India Vietnam China Sri Lanka Aggregate ) 2009 refers to 12-months to 30 September except for Thailand and Indonesia. The reference period is 12-months to 31 August for Thailand and 12-months to 31 July for Indonesia. Source: Reported by respective governments. EXPORT OF NR Changes in export of NR during 2009 from the same period in the previous year are summarised in the table below: Change in Export in 2009 from 2008 Thousand % change tonnes Thailand (January-August) % Indonesia (January-July) % Malaysia (January-September) % Vietnam (January-September) % India (January-September) % Singapore (January-June) % Sri Lanka (January-September) % Note: Exports from China are negligible. Source: Reported by respective governments. ANRPC Monthly Bulletin of Rubber Statistics, Volume 1, No.8, October

3 AVERAGE YIELD Average yield, measured in terms of annual production per hectare of tapped area in ANRPC Member countries, for the period from 2003 to 2009 are given in the table below: Average Annual Yield (Kg/ha) Year China India Indon esia Malaysia (4) Sri Thailand Vietnam Lanka (2) (3) 1700 Provisional. (2) Anticipated for 2009 (January to December). (3) Not available with the government. (4) Rubber forests in Sabah and Sarawak States are not accounted. Note: Given above are the yield data as reported by respective governments. They need not agree with the estimates computed by dividing production by tapped area, because some countries do not account their entire tapped area in estimating the yield. ANRPC Events, November 2009 (Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam) November 2, 2009: Third Meeting of ANRPC Information & Statistics Committee (Member Governments only) November 3, 2009: Third Meeting of ANRPC Industry Matters Committee (Member Governments only) November 4, 2009: November 5, 2009: November 6, 2009: November 7, 2009: ANRPC Annual Rubber Conference 2009 Opening Ceremony of 37 th Session of ANRPC Assembly 37 th Meeting of ANRPC Executive Committee (Member Governments only) 37 th Meeting of ANRPC Executive Committee (Member Governments only) 37 th Session of ANRPC Assembly (Member Governments only) Field Trip (Member Governments only) ANRPC Annual Rubber Conference 2009 November 4, 2009 Beyond the Crisis: Emerging Asia and Opportunities for Natural Rubber NEW WORLD HOTEL SAIGON Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam ANRPC Monthly Bulletin of Rubber Statistics, Volume 1, No.8, October

4 TRENDS IN CRUDE PETROLEUM OIL PRICES West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude petroleum oil prices averaged at US dollar per barrel in September Sustained economic growth in China and signs of a turnaround in other Asian countries helped the prices to rise to US dollar per barrel in the week ended 10 October and to US dollar per barrel in the week ended 17 October. On October 20, the WTI oil price touched US dollar per barrel. In spite of an optimistic global economic outlook, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Government did not revise its price projections upward because ample oil supplies remain on the market. Oil inventories remain high and EIA expects oil production by the OPEC to increase as well. In its short-term outlook released on October 6, EIA expects the price of WTI crude oil to average about 70 US dollar per barrel during this winter from October 2009-March 2010, a 19 US dollar increase over last winter. WTI prices are anticipated to average at 75 US dollar per barrel in December 2010 as the US and world economic conditions improve. Average prices of WTI crude petroleum oil are given in the table below. Average WTI Spot FOB Price of Crude Petroleum Oil (US$/barrel) US dollar per barrel Year Year Year Year Year Year Week ended August 1, Week ended August 8, Week ended August 15, Week ended August 22, Week ended August 29, Week ended September 5, Week ended September 12, Week ended September 19, Week ended September 26, Week ended October 3, Week ended October 10, Week ended October 17, On October 20, Source: Energy Information Administration, The U.S. government. (1 Barrel = 42 US gallons = 159 litre) ANRPC Monthly Bulletin of Rubber Statistics, Volume 1, No.8, October

5 TRENDS IN NATURAL RUBBER PRICES Weekly average prices of TSR, RSS and Latex in important markets from June 2009 onwards are given below: End of the Week Kuala Lumpur SMR20 Weekly Average Prices of Natural Rubber (US $ per 100 kg) TSR RSS Latex Bangkok STR20 (2) Bangkok RSS3 (2) Singapore RSS3 (3) Kottayam (India) RSS4 (4) Colombo RSS1 (5) Malaysia Latex 60% (6) June 06, June 13, June 20, June 27, July 04, July 11, July 18, July 25, Aug. 01, Aug. 08, Aug. 15, Aug. 22, Aug. 29, Sep. 05, Sep. 12, Sep. 19, Sep. 26, Oct. 03, Oct. 10, FOB physical price at 5.00 p.m. quoted by buyers. (2) FOB physical price reported by Rubber Research Institute of Thailand. (3) FOB physical price at noon quoted by buyers in SICOM. (4) Average spot price (not including taxes or duties) reported by the Rubber Board. (5) Average rate pertaining to Colombo Auction. (6) Average farm-gate prices in North, Central and South Malaysia for dry rubber content. Not available. ANRPC Monthly Bulletin of Rubber Statistics, Volume 1, No.8, October

6 Table 1: Production of Natural Rubber in ANRPC Member Countries ( 000 tonnes) Year China India Indonesia Malaysia Papua New Guinea Sri Lanka Thailand Vietnam * * * Month (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) January * * February * * March * * April * * May * * June * * July * * August * * * September * * * * October * * * * November * * * * December 39.3 * * * * * Anticipated for 2009 (Jan. to Dec.); (2) Actual up to July, provisional for August September and anticipated data for rest of the year; * Not available with the government. Source: Reported by respective governments. Table 2: Consumption of Natural Rubber in ANRPC Member Countries ( 000 tonnes) Year China India Indonesia Malaysia Papua New Guinea Sri Lanka Thailand Vietnam 2005 * * * * * * * 78.0 * Month (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) January * * * February * * * March * * * April * * * May * * * June * * * July * * * August * * * September * * * * October * * * * November * * * * December 182 * * * * * Anticipated for 2009 (Jan. to Dec.); (2) Actual up to July, provisional for August September and anticipated for rest of the year; * Not available with the government. Source: Reported by respective governments. ANRPC Monthly Bulletin of Rubber Statistics, Volume 1. No. 8, October

7 Table 3: Gross Export of Natural Rubber from ANRPC Member Countries ( 000 tonnes) Year China India Indonesia Malaysia Papua New Guinea Singapore Sri Lanka Thailand Vietnam * * * * Month (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) January Negl. Negl * * February Negl. Negl * * March Negl. Negl * * April Negl. Negl * * May Negl. Negl. 3 Negl * * June Negl. Negl. 9 Negl * * July Negl. Negl * * 14.7 * August Negl. Negl 3 Negl * * * 13.5 * September Negl. Negl * * * 10.0 * * October Negl. Negl * * * 9.0 * * November Negl. Negl * * * 5.6 * * December Negl. Negl * * * 7.1 * * Anticipated for 2009 (Jan. to Dec.); (2) Actual up to July, provisional for August September and anticipated for rest of the year; * Not available with the government. Source: Reported by respective governments. Table 4: Gross Import of Natural Rubber in ANRPC Member Countries ( 000 tonnes) Year China India Indonesia Malaysia Singapore Sri Lanka Thailand Vietnam * 4.5 * Month (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) January Negl. Negl February Negl. Negl March Negl. Negl April Negl. Negl May Negl. Negl June * Negl. Negl July * * Negl. Negl August * * Negl. Negl September * * Negl. Negl October * * Negl. * November * * Negl. * December 99 * * * 0.0 Negl. * Anticipated for 2009 (Jan. to Dec.); (2) Actual up to July, provisional for August September and anticipated for rest of the year; * Not available with the government. Source: Reported by respective governments. ANRPC Monthly Bulletin of Rubber Statistics, Volume 1. No. 8, October

8 Table 5: Closing Stock of Natural Rubber in ANRPC Member Countries ( 000 tonnes) Year China India Indonesia (3) Malaysia Papua New Guinea Singapore Sri Lanka Thailand Vietnam 2005 * * * * * * * * * 16.0 * Month (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) January * * * * * * February * * * * * * March * * * * * * April * * * * * * May * * * * * * June * * * * * * July * * * * * 7.0 * August * * * * * 4.3 * September * * * * * * 4.1 * * October * * * * * * 3.8 * * November * * * * * * 3.6 * * December * * * 2.5 * * Anticipated for end of 2009 ; (2) Actual up to July, provisional for August September 2009 anticipated data for rest of the year; (3) Stock with Estates; * Not available with the government. Source: Reported by respective governments. Table 6: Total Planted Area and Tapped Area in ANRPC Member Countries ( 000 hectares) China India Indonesia Malaysia Papua New Guinea Sri Lanka Thailand Vietnam Year Total Tapped Total Tapped Total Tapped Total Tapped Total Tapped Total Tapped Total Tapped Total Tapped area area area area area area area area area area area area area area area area * * * * * * * * * * * * Anticipated for end of the year; * Not available with the government. Source: Reported by respective governments. Table 7: Area Planted during each Year in ANRPC Member Countries ( 000 hectares) Year China India Indonesia Malaysia Papua New Sri Lanka Thailand Vietnam Guinea New- Replanted planted planted planted planted planted planted planted planted planted planted planted planted planted planted planted (3) * * (3) * * (3) * * (3) * * (2) 63.0 (3) * 20.0 * * * Provisional; (2) Anticipated for end of 2009; (3) Total area newplanted or replanted during the year; * Not available with the government. Source: Reported by respective governments. ANRPC Monthly Bulletin of Rubber Statistics, Volume 1. No. 8, October