Rice: World market situation and 2016/17 outlook

Transcription

1 1/1/21 Rice: World market situation and 21/17 outlook TENTH SESSION OF THE AMIS GLOBAL FOOD MARKET INFORMATION GROUP FAO, Rome -7 October 21 GLOBAL RICE PRODUCTION Despite poor outcomes in the southern hemisphere, world rice production to strike a new record of 7 million tonnes (paddy basis). A 2 million hectare recovery in plantings in Asia to drive the growth. Global paddy production and area Million hectares Annual change in paddy plantings by region Million hectares Asia Africa North America Latin America and Car. Others Paddy production Area

2 1/1/21 A NORMAL MONSOON FACILITATES RECOVERY A normal pattern of the monsoon allows for an upbeat progress of main-crop plantings in northern hemisphere Asia, boosting water supplies for offseason crops. India: Weekly Planting Progress Million hectares Jun. II Jun. III Jun. IV Jul. I Jul. II Jul. III Jul. IV Jul. V Aug. I Aug. II Aug. III Aug. IV Sep. I Sep. II Sep. III Sep. IV cumulative rainfall departure progressive plantings from long-period average Percent India and Thailand: Water Levels in Major Reservoirs Percent of capacity Kangsabati (Eastern India) Somasila (Southern India) Hirahud (Central India) Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-1 Sep-1 1-year Avg. Bhumibol (Northern Thailand) Sirikit Dam (Northern Thailand) Lam Pao (Northeastern) 3 PRODUCTION IN THE MAJOR PLAYERS India to account for much of the 21 global recovery, but the Philippines, Thailandand the United States to make sizeable contributions F 21/21 Change million tonnes, milled eq. % World China (Mainland) India Indonesia Bangladesh Viet Nam Thailand Myanmar Philippines Brazil Japan United States Pakistan Countries ranked according to their position in average production. F=forecast 4 2

3 1/1/21 INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN RICE World trade in rice subdued for three-successive years. World rice trade and FAO Rice Price Index 22-24=1 Exports 3 4 FAO Rice Price Index Rice imports by region Africa 9 Others Near East Asia Latin America & C. Far East * RICE IMPORTS Sufficient local availabilities and reduced price pressure lower imports by the Far East. Currency factors and restrictive policies hinder growth elsewhere F 217 F 217/21 Change million tonnes, milled eq. % World China (mainland) Nigeria EU Philippines Saudi Arabia Indonesia Côte d Ivoire Senegal Malaysia Iraq Iran, Islam. Rep of Others Countries ranked according to their position in average imports. F=forecast Philippines: stocks by sector and retail prices Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-1 Apr-1 Commercial Stock Household Stocks Jun-1 Aug-1 Oct-1 Dec-1 Feb-1 NFA Stock Apr-1 Jun-1 Retail price (Ntl. Avg.) Pesos/kg Aug

4 1/1/21 RICE EXPORTS Improved availabilities to allow India to retain its position as the leading global supplier of rice for the sixth successive year, while exports by Viet Nam are reduced to six-year lows F 217 F 217/21 Change million tonnes, milled eq. % World India Thailand Viet Nam Pakistan United States Myanmar Cambodia Brazil Uruguay Guyana Others Countries ranked according to their position in average exports. F=forecast Viet Nam: Rice Exports by Region Jan-Jul Asia Africa Americas Others 21 Jan-Jul 7 GLOBAL RICE UTILIZATION AND STOCKS Draw-downs in the major exporters behind a slight contraction in carryovers, but world rice reserves to remain adequate. 22 Stocks (left axis) Production (right axis) Utilization (right axis) Global Closing Stocks and Stocks-to-use Ratio 2 1 Percent /7 28/9 21/11 212/13 214/1 21/17 27/8 21/11 213/14 21/17 Rest of the world Major rice exporters China, Mainland World stocks-to-use-ratio 8 4

5 1/1/21 MAJOR EXPORTERS STOCKS To decline for the third successive year, but much will depend on the success of Thai Government stock release plans. Stocks held by the major rice exporters and stocksto-disappearance ratio Percent Thailand: Public Rice Stock Auctions (Aug/214-Aug/21) Volumes offered (left axis) Volumes awarded (left axis) Cumulative releases (right axis) India Thailand Viet Nam United States Pakistan Stock-to-disappearance. Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-1 Apr-1 Jun-1 Aug-1 Oct-1 Dec-1 Feb-1 Apr-1 Jun-1 Aug-1. 9 INTERNATIONAL RICE PRICES Resume their downward trajectory in August, on a combination of thin buying interest and prospects of larger availabilities from imminent crop harvests. High Quality Indica Prices US$/tonne US 2/4% Thai 1% B Pak Irri % Viet % India IR % FAO Rice Price Indices 22-24= 1 3 Indica: High Quality Indica: Low Quality 3 Japonica Aromatic Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep * *Jan-Sepaverage 1

6 1/1/21 UNCERTAINTIES Weather Although we have passed the most critical stage of the season, weather events (such as La Niña, storms, etc.) could still affect the outcome of 21 secondary crops in the northern hemisphere and of 217 main-crops in the southern hemisphere Policies In major exporters: public stocks releases in Thailand and India In major importing countries: China (border protection), Indonesia, Nigeria (self-sufficiency) and the Philippines (tariffication?) Macro-economic factors Exchange rates Oil prices, etc. Developments in other cereal markets 11 Thank You 12