CENTRAL BANK OF SRI LANKA

Transcription

1 CENTRAL BANK OF SRI LANKA SELECTED WEEKLY ECONOIC INDICATORS 31 October. Economic Research Department Tel. : (94 11) , Janadhipathi awatha cbslgen@sri.lanka.net Colombo 1 Website :

2 SRI LANKA ECONOIC INDICATORS Exchange Rates Ending Ago Year Ago (Rs Per Unit) Oct. 31 Commercial Bank Avg. iddle Rate (prevailing at 9.3a.m.) US$ STG Yen Euro SDR ( As at 3 Oct.) Central Bank purchases and sales of foreign exchange from Ending Ago Year Ago commercial banks at market rates (US$ n. )-total for week Oct. 3 Purchases Sales Average Daily Interbank Volume (US$ n.) (spot, tom and cash transactions among commercial banks) Forward Transactions Forward Rates (US$) (1) 1 onth Average Daily Interbank Forward Volume (US$ mn) Outstanding Forward Volume (US$ mn) ( As at 3 Oct.) J EXCHANGE RATES (US$ and STG -) onth end Rates STG US$ S J S Daily Rates STG US$ Last 4 s In nominal terms, the Rupee depreciated against the USD, STG and SDR, while it appreciated against the Euro. (1) ly average based on actual transactions. Interest Rates (%) Ending Ago Year Ago Oct. 31 Commercial Bank Average Weighted Prime Lending Rate (AWPR) Treasury Bill Yield - 91 days (Excluding 1% withholding tax) days days Central Bank Overnight Repurchase rate (Repo) (2) Central Bank Overnight reverse Repurchase rate (2) Call oney ly Average (CR) Sri Lanka Inter Bank Offer Rate ( SLIBOR ) (2) 1 day days onth Sep. onth Ago Year Ago Saving Deposits - Commercial Banks One Year Fixed Deposits Oct. onth Ago Year Ago Commercial Bank Average Weighted Deposits (AWDR) Commercial Bank Average Weighted Fixed Deposits (AWFDR) Sep. onth Ago Year Ago Saving Deposits - NSB One Year Fixed Deposits - NSB (6Y) (1Y) (2Y) Treasury Bonds Auction Oct 3 Oct 3 Oct 2 Coupon rate Weighted Average Yield(Excluding 1% withholding tax) Call money rates remained between 7.25 to 8.46 per cent during the week. (2) As at last working day of the week J J INTEREST RATES- Call oney (inimum and aximum - INTEREST RATES 3 onth & 12 onth Treasury Bills Yield (end Period - ) onthly 12 3 onthly Avg in ax S J J N A S S Daily ax Avg in Last 4 s ly 12 3 Last 4 1

3 ' Repurchase ' Repurchase Government Debt Securities arket ly summary of primary & secondary market transactions(rs. n) and Weighted Average Yield Rates (%) Item/ Ended ending ending Oct. 29 Oct. 21 Primary arket T-bills Outstanding 23,295 23,295 Total Offer 4,53 5,16 Yields <= 91 days 7.7% 7.8% Government Securities- Secondary arket (After Tax) < 182 days 7.3% 7.5% Yield Curve < 364 days 6.98% 6.99% T-bonds Outstanding 463,67 462,67 Total Offer 1, 3,7 (Last Issue 1/1/3) Yields 2 year 1.12% 1.12% (Last Issue 28/8/3) (After Tax) 3 year 7.44% 7.44% Yield(%) (Last Issue 28/8/3) 4 year 7.38% 7.38% (Last Issue 11/9/3) 5 year 7.7% 7.7% 8.% (Last Issue 16/1/3) 6 year 6.69% 6.69% (Last Issue 16/1/3) 1year 6.85% 6.85% 7.75% (Last Issue 12/8/3) 15year 7.63% 7.63% (Last Issue 2/1/3) 2year 6.8% 6.8% 7.5% Secondary arket T-bills Outright Transactions Purchased % 7.% Sold 5,58 4,53 Ending Stock with PDs 22,216 21, % Repo Transactions Repurchase 32,868 26,97 6.5% Reverse 6.25% 5,814 3,36 T-bonds Outright Transactions onth ago week ago 29/1/3 Purchased, 6,34 6,31 Sold 6,464 9,86 Ending Stock with PDs 52,69 52,292 Repo Transactions Repurchase 33,463 37,333 Reverse 2,949 2,596 Weighted Average Yield Rates (% per annum) Treasury Bills Purchased <= 91 days 7.6% 7.18% (After Tax) < 182 days 7.3% 7.13% < 364 days 6.99% 7.7% Sold <= 91 days 7.% 6.99% < 182 days 7.% 7.3% < 364 days 6.92% 7.1% Treasury Bonds Purchased <= 1 year.% 6.96% 1+ yrs 6.97% 6.87% 2+ yrs 6.78% 6.8% 3+ yrs 6.79% 6.84% 4+ yrs 6.77% 6.79% 5+ yrs 6.62% 6.77% Sold <= 1 year 7.15%.% 1+ yrs 6.88% 6.75% 2+ yrs 6.69% 6.93% 3+ yrs 6.77% 6.85% 4+ yrs 6.76% 6.74% 5+ yrs 6.61% 6.75% Source :Primary Auctions & Primary Dealer ly Reporting System Two way quotes for Treasury Bills Quoted by Primary Dealers on 3/1/ Remaining aturity Average Buying Price * Yield ** Average Selling Price * Yield ** Buying & Selling Spread 1-7 Days onth onth onth onth onth onth onth onth onth onth onth onth * Per Rs. 1 ** Yield to maturity % per annum This report is based on two -way quotes submitted by eight Primary Dealers 2

4 Buying and Selling prices of Treasury Bonds Quoted by Primary Dealers on 3/1/ aturity aturity Average Average Bond Series Period D / / Y Buying Yield ** Selling Yield ** (Years) Price * Price * 12.5%B 2 11/1/ %24A 2 1/1/ %24B 2 2/22/ %24C 2 6/21/ %24D 2 8/1/ %24E 2 9/13/ %24F 2 11/1/ %25A 2 1/1/ %J 3 11/1/ %24A 3 6/1/ %24B 3 7/1/ %24B 3 1/1/ %24C 3 1/16/ %24D 3 12/3/ %25A 3 1/1/ %25B 3 1/11/ %25C 3 2/1/ %25D 3 2/15/ %25E 3 3/1/ %25F 3 3/8/ %25G 3 4/1/ %25H 3 4/16/ %25J 3 7/5/ %25K 3 7/15/ %25L 3 7/26/ %25 3 8/1/ %25N 3 9/2/ %25O 3 9/19/ %25P 3 1/1/ %25Q 3 1/21/ %26A 3 3/1/ %26A 3 9/1/ %24A 4 1/1/ %24B 4 4/1/ %24C 4 5/15/ %26A 4 4/19/ %26B 4 4/25/ %26C 4 5/2/ %26D 4 7/19/ %26E 4 8/1/ %26F 4 8/23/ %26G 4 11/1/ %27A 4 3/1/ %27B 4 6/15/ %27A 4 8/15/ %24A 5 3/1/ %24B 5 9/1/ %25A 5 1/1/ %25B 5 3/15/ %25C 5 4/1/ %27A 5 5/17/ %27B 5 5/31/ %27C 5 7/1/ %27D 5 8/1/ %27E 5 8/16/ %27F 5 9/2/ %27G 5 1/1/ %27H 5 1/7/ %27J 5 11/1/ %28A 5 1/1/ %28A 5 1/15/ %28B 5 4/1/ %25A 6 9/1/ %26A 6 1/1/ %26B 6 3/15/ %26C 6 4/1/ %26D 6 5/15/ %28A 6 6/26/ %28B 6 7/19/ %28C 6 8/1/ %28D 6 9/2/ %28E 6 9/13/ %28F 6 1/1/ %28G 6 1/7/ %28H 6 11/1/ %29A 6 1/1/ %29A 6 1/15/ %29B 6 5/2/ %29A 6 8/1/ %213A 1 1/15/ %213B 1 7/15/ %213A 1 8/1/ %218A 15 2/1/ %218A 15 8/15/ Yield (%) Treasury Bonds - Yield Curves Yield on Ave. Buying Price Yield on Ave. Selling Price No. of Days to aturity Yield (%) Yield on Ave. Buying Price Yield on Ave. Selling Price Yield (%) /1/ onth ago No. of Days to aturity Year ago Yield on Ave. Buying Price Yield on Ave. Selling Price No. of Days to aturity 3

5 oney arket Activity - Volumes Ending Ago Year Ago ( Rs. n ) Oct.3 Inter - bank Call oney Turnover (a) 3,65 3,932 6,231 Central Bank Holdings Treasury bills 2,178 4,221 4,799 Treasury bonds (a) Daily average for week Open arket Operations Repo Auction Amount Offered (Rs. bn) Bids received (Rs. bn) Amount accepted (Rs. bn) Weighted Average Yield (% p.a.) Standing Facilities (Volumes) Repo (Rs.bn.) n.a. Reverse Repo (Rs.bn) Credit Cards * End Aug. End July End Dec. Total Number of Active Cards 364,5 358,96 321,145 Local (accepted only locally) 74,397 73,537 69,437 Global (accepted globally) 289, , ,78 Outstanding balance (Rs. n.) 7,157 6,994 6,39 Local (accepted only locally) Global (accepted globally) 6,486 6,328 5,771 *issued by commercial banks Commercial Paper Issues (1) * 21 July Total Issues ( Rs. bn.) Outstanding ( at the end of the period ) ( Rs. bn. ) (1) Based on the information provided by commercial banks and merchant banks Rs. Bn. Commercial Paper Issues Share arket Ending Ago Year Ago Oct. 3 All Share Price Index (1985 = 1) (ASPI) 1,417 1, ilanka Price Index (31/12/1998 = 1) (PI) 2,581 2,491 1,392 Average Daily Turnover (Rs. n) arket Capitalisation (Rs.bn.) The All Share Price Index and ilanka Price Index increased by 24 index points and 9 index points respectively. Average daily turnover increased by Rs.196 mn onth end - J A Jy SHARE ARKET INDICES PI ASPI O J A Jy Daily PI ASPI Last 4 s 4

6 oney Supply (a) onth Ago Year Ago 1 (Rs. bn.) (Rs. bn.) b (Rs. bn.) Net Foreign Assets of the Banking System (Rs.bn.)(b) onetary Authorities (Rs. bn.)(c) Domestic Banking Units (DBUs) (Rs.bn.) Foreign currency Banking Units (FCBUs) (Rs. bn.) Net Domestic Assets of the Banking System (Rs.bn) (b) DBUs (Rs.bn.) FCBUs (Rs. bn.) Net Credit to Government (Rs.bn) onetary Authorities (Rs. bn.) DBUs (Rs.bn.) FCBUs (Rs. bn.) Credit to Corporations (Rs.bn) DBUs (Rs.bn.) FCBUs (Rs. bn.) Credit to the Private Sector (Rs.bn) DBUs (Rs.bn.) FCBUs (Rs. bn.) Reserve oney (Rs.bn.) Annual Change (%) b Net Foreign Assets of the Banking System (b) onetary Authorities(c) Domestic Banking Units (DBUs) Foreign currency Banking Units (FCBUs) Net Domestic Assets of the Banking System (b) DBUs FCBUs Net Credit to Government onetary Authorities DBUs FCBUs Credit to Corporations DBUs FCBUs Credit to the Private Sector DBUs FCBUs Reserve oney (a) Provisional (c) Net Foreign Asset of onetary Authorities are at (b) In relation to 2b market values from December 21. Aug. ly Change in Reserve oney 3 Oct ago Change Reserve oney (Rs.mn.) 136, , % % ONEY SUPPLY 2 Annual Changes ONEY SUPPLY 1 Annual Changes 5 % F/1 ONEY SUPPLY 2b Annual Changes Rs.bn WEEKLY CHANGE IN RESERVE ONEY /1 A/1 A/5 /4 J/4 Jy/4 A/3 S/3 s O/3 N/2 D/2 5

7 Wholesale Prices Ending Ago onth Ago Year Ago Pettah arket Oct. 31(Avg) (Avg) (Avg) (Avg) Rice (Rs/Kg) Samba Kekulu (Red) Vegetables (Rs/Kg) Pumpkins Snake Gourd Ash-Plantains Beans Carrots Tomatoes Other Foods (Rs/Kg) Potatoes(N'Eliya) Dried Chilies(Imported) Big-Onion(Imported) Red-Onion(Local) Eggs Fish (Rs/Kg) Kelawalla Salaya Balaya Paraw(Small) Wholesale price of samba rice along with potatoes and onions have increased during the week. The contributory factors for these Increases were increased paddy price (rice), decreased imported stocks (potatoe and big onion) and low supply (red onions) respectively. However the price of vegetables indicated mixed trends due to supply flutuation. Dried chili price declined during the week due to its low quality. Fish prices dropped due to increased supplies from throughout the island. Rs/Kg Rice - Kekulu F/1 /1 A/1 /1 Jy/1 Jy/5 A/4 S/4 O/4 N/3 D/3 Rs/Kg Beans J/4 F/3 /2 A/1 A/4 /3 J/2 Jy/1 Jy/4 A/2 S/1 S/4 O/3 N/1 N/4 D/3 Rs/Kg Potatoes J/4 F/3 /2 A/1 A/4 /3 J/2 Jy/1 Jy/4 A/2 S/1 S/4 O/3 N/1 N/4 D/3 Rs/Kg Kelawalla 8 4 J/4 F/3 /2 A/1 A/4 /3 J/2 Jy/1 Jy/4 A/2 S/1 S/4 O/3 N/1 N/4 D/3 Retail Prices Ending Ago onth Ago Year Ago Pettah arket Oct. 31(Avg) (Average) (Average) (Average) Rice (Rs/Kg) Samba Kekulu Vegetables (Rs/Kg) Pumpkins Snake Gourd Ash-Plantains Beans Carrots Tomatoes Other Foods (Rs/Kg) Potatoes(N'Eliya) Dried Chilies(Imported) Big-Onion(Imported) Red-Onion(Local) Eggs Fish (Rs/Kg) Kelawalla Salaya Balaya Paraw(Small) Rs/Kg J/4 Rs/Kg F/2 Rs/Kg F/2 Rs/Kg F/2 F/3 /2 A/1 /3 A/4 /3 A/4 /3 A/4 Rice - Kekulu A/4 /3 J/2 Beans Jy/2 Potatoes Jy/2 Kelawalla Jy/2 Jy/1 Jy/4 A/2 S/1 S/4 O/3 N/1 A/2 S/3 O/4 N/4 A/2 S/3 O/4 N/4 A/2 S/3 O/4 N/4 N/4 D/3 6

8 Price Indices Sep. onth Ago Year Ago Colombo District Consumers' Price index (CDCPI) (Oct Sep.1997 = 1) Annual Average Change % Point to Point Change % June * onth Ago Year Ago Wholesale Price Index (WPI) (1974 = 1) 1, , ,642. Annual Average Change % PRICE CHANGES (CCPI) Annual Average Sep. onth Ago Year Ago Colombo Consumers' Price index (CCPI) (1952 = 1) 3,32.3 3, ,15.8 Annual Average Change % Point to Point Change % Aug. onth Ago Year Ago Greater Colombo Consumers' Price index (GCPI) (Jan - Jun 1989 = 1) Annual Average Change % Aug. onth Ago Year Ago Sri Lanka Consumers' Price Index (SLCPI) 1/ ( = 1) Annual Average Change % Point to Point Change % The Consumer Prices indicated mixed trends in September over the previous month. CCPI published by the Department of Census and Statistics, indicated a monthly increase of.3 per cent. eanwhile, the CDCPI computed by the CBSL decreased by.4 per cent. Sri Lanka Consumers' Price Index (SLCPI) oving Average Index onthly Change % Point to Point Change % Change % ( =1) January February arch April ay June July August September October November December / Computed and published by the Department of Census and Statistics on a trial basis from ay. Weights for this index are based on the Household Income and Expenditure Survey, conducted by the Department of Census and Statistics in 1995/1996. Geographical covrage for price collection extends to 2 districts (including the Eastern Province and excluding the Northern Province). The SLCPI covers the lowest 8% of households ranked by their monthly expenditure. Nominal Wages * % Change August August Central Government Employees (1978 = 1) 1,525. 1,525.. (Non-executive officers and minor employees) Workers in Wages Boards Trades (1978 = 1) 1, , Agriculture 1, , Industry & Commerce 1, Services /J WAGE INDICES (1978 = 1) Central Govt. S 1/J S 2/J S 3/ Wages Boards 7

9 Agriculture Production * % Change Jan -.Sep. Jan -.Sep. Tea (n Kg) Rubber (n Kg) Coconuts (n Nuts) 1,87. 1, n.kg AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION (Cumulative Tea) Industrial Production August August % Change Private Sector Industrial Production Index (1997 = 1) Public Sector ajor Industrial Output Index (1997 = 1) Government Finance * Jan.- Aug. Jan.- Aug. Budget Revenue (Rs.bn) Tax Non tax Expenditure & Lending inus Repayments (Rs.bn) Current Capital & Lending inus Repayments Total Revenue increased by 6 per cent over the period. Rs. bn GOVERNENT REVENUE & EXPENDITURE Expenditure Expenditure Revenue J F A J Jy A Government Debt End August onth Ago Year Ago * Total domestic debt Rs bn 1, of which Treasury bills Treasury bonds Rupee loans Total foreign debt Rs bn Total outstanding govt. debt Rs bn 1, , ,611.4 The total outstanding government debt stock increased by 5.9 per cent compared to the end December Rs. bn GOVERNENT DEBT 2' Aug. 3' July 3' Aug. Domestic Foreign 8

10 External Finance * % Change End August End Dec. External Assets Total Reserves (a) US$ n 2,93.2 2, Rs n 28, , Gross Official Reserves US$ n 2,64.7 1, Rs n 199, , Private Remittances * % Change Jan.- Aug. Jan.- Aug. Inflows US$ n Rs n 9,393 78, Outflows US$ n Rs n 14,16 11, Net US$ n Rs n 76,377 67, (a) In the presentation of BOP data, FCBUs have been treated as part of the domestic banking system. The total level of foreign reserves was sufficient to finance 5.4 months of imports. Rs.b Rs.bn Total EXTERNAL ASSETS - Gross Official J/2 Jy S N J/3 Jy PRIVATE REITTANCES-NET External Trade * % Change Jan- Aug. Jan- Aug. Exports Rs. n 324, , Agricultural 59,68. 59, Industrial 251, , ineral 5,25.1 5, Other 8, , Imports Rs. n 49, , Consumer Goods 81, , Intermediate Goods 246, , Investment Goods 76, , Other 4,42.7 8, Trade Balance Rs. n -84, , Exports (in US$ terms) US$ n 3, , Agricultural Industrial 2, , ineral Other Imports US$ n 4, , Consumer Goods Intermediate Goods 2,54. 2, Investment Goods Other Trade Balance US$ n Export earnings recorded an increase of 11. per cent in US$ terms, reflecting an increase of 12.1 per cent in industrial exports. Imports recorded an increase of 8.8 per cent, reflecting increases in consumer, intermediate goods and Investment goods. US$ n 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, US$ n EXPORTS(Cumulative) IPORTS(Cumulative)

11 Industrial Exports * % Change Jan - Aug. Jan - Aug. Total Industrial Exports Rs.n. 251, , Food Beverages and Tobacco 9,16.4 7, Textiles and Apparel 161, , Petroleum Products 4, , Leather, Rubber etc 24, , Other 51, , US$ n INDUSTRIAL EXPORTS (Cumulative) Total Industrial Exports US$ n. 2, , Food, Beverages and Tobacco Textiles and Apparel 1, , Petroleum Products Leather, Rubber etc Other Industrial exports increased by 12.1 per cent in US$ terms mainly due to increases in earnings from food, beverages and tobacco, textiles and apparel, Petroleum products and leather & rubber products. Trade Indices ** * onth ago Year ago (1997 = 1 ) July Total Exports Value Quantity Unit Value Total Imports Value Quantity Unit Value Terms of Trade ** In US$ Terms 1 TRADE INDICES- TERS OF TRADE (1997 = 1) Index Tourism * % Change Jan - Aug. Jan - Aug. Tourist Arrivals (') Earnings from Tourism US$ n Rs.n. 16, , Tourist arrivals increased by 24.8 per cent TOURIST ARRIVALS Cumulative (') TEA PRICES (Rs./Kg) International Commodity Prices * % Change August August Exports (Colombo Auction Price) Tea Rs / Kg Imports (C & F) Rice(a) Rs. / T 45, , White Sugar Rs. / T 21, , Crude Oil Rs./Barrel 2, , Wheat Rs / T 15,41. 13, Exports (Colombo Auction Price) Tea US$ / Kg Imports (C & F) Rice(a) US$ / T White Sugar US$ / T Crude Oil US$/Barrel Wheat US$ / T (a) Rice price in August increased due to imports of high quality rice from Pakistan RICE PRICES (' Rs./T) CRUDE OIL PRICES (Rs./Barrel) 15 J F A J Jy A S O N D 1

12 Average Crude Oil Prices onth Spot Prices Spot Prices WTI (Europian arket) Brent(New York closing price) CPC Import Prices (C&F) (US$/bbl)(a) WTI (Europian arket) Brent(New York closing price) CPC Import Prices (C&F) (US$/bbl)(a) (US $/bbl) (US $/bbl) (US $/bbl) (US $/bbl) January February arch (b) April ay June July August September October November December Jan-2 ar-2 Crude Oil Prices WTI Brent ay-2 Jul-2 Sep-2 Nov-2 Jan-3 ar-3 ay-3 Jul-3 onth/date Sep-3 24 Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Sources: Reuters Energy Information Administration (Web Site) Ceylon Pertoleum Corporation (a) CPC import prices are not directly comparable with spot prices of WTI and Brent due to: CPC prices include freight charges; CPC price is weighted average price of different type of crude oil; Part of imports of CPC are on term contract basis where price includes a premium; and the spot prices of WTI refers to European market prices where prices are lower than in markets in Asia. (b) There were no crude oil imports in arch. Real GDP * * (Percentage change) 2nd Quarter 2nd Quarter First Half First Half Agriculture Industry Services GDP % Real GDP (Percentage change) '31st Half Year Employment * 21 1 st Quarter 1 st Quarter 1 st Quarter Labour Force Participation rate Unemployment rate Employed Persons by Sectors % Agriculture Industry Services and Other Rate Unemployment Rate ' Year/Quarter '1 '2 Q4 '3 Q1 The information contained in this issue is based on the Central Bank's own computations and data supplied by other institutions. 11