Malaysia s export growth at record high in 2017

Transcription

1 Dr. Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid Chief Economist Malaysia s export growth at record high in 2017 Facts Total exports in 2017 grew by 18.9% (2016: 1.2%) to RM935.4 billion led by higher exports in manufacturing as well as commodities. Such growth rate was at a record high in the last one decade. The primary driver was Electrical & Electronics (E&E) which accounted for 36.7% of total exports in Total E&E exports grew by 19.2% to RM343.0 billion in 2017 from 3.6% in the preceding year. This followed by other manufacturing sector such as Machinery, Appliances & Parts (4.3% of total exports), Optical & Scientific Equipment (3.5% of total exports), Professional, Scientific & Controlling Instruments (3.0% of total exports) and Rubber Gloves (1.7% of total exports), growing by 7.2% (2016:3.7%), 12.8% (2016: 10.2%), 12.7% (2016: 12.3%) and 19.4% (2016: 1.4%) respectively. Major markets for Malaysia export destination such as Singapore (14.5% of total exports), China (13.5% of total exports), the EU (10.2% of total exports), the US (9.5% of total exports) and Japan (8.0% of total exports) were all recorded higher growth of 18.5% (2016: 5.6%), 28.0% (2016: -2.9%), 19.4% (2016: 1.2%), 10.5% (2016: 8.9%) and 17.5% (2016: -12.3%) in 2017 respectively. Similarly, total imports growth jumped 19.9% (2016: 1.9%) to RM838.1 billion in This was largely underpinned by growth in imports of Capital (13.8% of total imports) and Intermediate (57.1% of total imports) Goods which grew by 15.5% (2016: 4.9%) and 20.0% (2016: -0.1%) respectively. This followed by import of Consumption Goods (6.0% of total imports) which posted 6.0% growth in 2017 versus 7.3% in the preceding year. As a result, the trade surplus balance widened from RM88.1 billion in 2016 to RM97.2 billion in 2017 as exports continue to surpassed imports. For Internal Circulation Page 1

2 Chart 1: Export and Import y-o-y% 25.0% 21.7% 19.9% 20.0% 15.6% 18.9% 15.0% 9.7% 9.2% 10.0% 8.5% 5.8% 6.9% 6.3% 3.5% 2.5% 5.3% 5.0% 1.9% 0.7% 1.6% 1.2% 0.0% 0.4% -5.0% -10.0% Export Import -15.0% -16.4% -20.0% -16.7% Chart 2: Trade balance (export less import) in RM billion Chart 3: USD/MYR For Internal Circulation Page 2

3 Chart 4: MYR Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) Source: Strategic Management, Bank Islam Our view Malaysian economy was clearly the immediate beneficiaries of improving global demand while the weak USD/MYR has helped exporters to gain their competitiveness. Additionally, continuous investment by the manufacturers to upgrade their production capacities has resulted in improvement in the economies of scale. This would allow them to take on more orders at a relatively cheaper costs as input factor (labour, machine and equipment) have become more efficient. As such, the main question is whether such trend would continue in For one, we have seen the appreciation of USD/MYR to as high as RM on 26 January. This happened before the currency pair experienced its technical correction to RM yesterday. This could have some impact to exporters as their product pricing would be affected in view of the ringgit strength. Nonetheless, the most important factor is the global demand, whether the current momentum can be sustained or otherwise. Judging from the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sectors among the developed countries suggest that the current demand momentum could be maintained. As of January, the PMI indices for the US, the EU, the UK and Japan stand at 59.1 points (December: 59.3 points), 59.6 points (December: 60.6 points), 55.3 (December: 56.2 points) and 54.8 points (December: 54.0 points) respectively (see Chart 5). The prevailing index is very much higher than the 50 points benchmark which indicates that the sentiment among manufacturers in the advanced economies is generally optimistic. In that sense, Asian economies including Malaysia would benefit from such optimism given that many industries are interconnected through the Global Value Chains (GVC). This is especially true in the case of Foreign Value Added in exports of Medium and High Technology Manufacturing sector in Asia which is fairly sizeable (see Chart 6). As such, we are projecting nominal exports would grow by 8% in The high base factor was the main reasons for the single digit growth this year. For Internal Circulation Page 3

4 Jan-15 Mar- May- Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov- Jan-16 Mar- May- Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov- Jan-17 Mar- May- Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov- Jan-18 Economic Research, Strategic Management Chart 5: Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for manufacturing industries 65.0 US EU UK Japan 60.0 Benchmark Source: Bloomberg Chart 6: Value Added Decomposition of Exports Medium- and High-Technology* Manufacturing Sector (Foreign Value Added % of total exports) Viet Nam Thailand Taipei, China Philippines South Korea Malaysia India Indonesia China Japan Source: Key Indicators 2017, Asian Development Bank (ADB) *Consists of the sectors Coke, Refined Petroleum, and Nuclear Fuel; Chemicals and Chemical Products; Other Non- Metallic Mineral; Basic Metals and Fabricated Metals; Machinery, NEC; Electrical and Optical Equipment; Transport Equipment. For Internal Circulation Page 4

5 Appendix Trade Statistics Y-o-Y% Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec Export 30.9% 21.6% 14.8% 18.7% 14.5% 4.7% 1.2% 18.9% Import 21.8% 22.4% 15.2% 20.9% 15.2% 7.9% 1.9% 19.9% Trade balance (RM bn) Export by product Electrical & Electronic Products 28.3% 20.1% 17.7% 16.9% 21.1% 6.2% 3.7% 7.2% Palm Oil 12.1% -1.5% -1.6% 11.3% 2.7% -0.4% 3.6% 19.2% Liquefied Natural Gas 50.8% 101.8% 8.2% 6.3% 7.5% 4.8% 7.5% 14.6% Petroleum Products 85.4% 35.5% 13.2% 13.4% 0.2% -6.2% -26.7% 23.7% Machinery, Appliances and Parts 26.5% 7.0% 8.1% 12.7% 7.1% 4.8% 11.7% 23.2% Crude Petroleum -2.1% 0.0% -4.9% 62.9% -3.1% 6.9% -14.4% 25.3% Optical and Scientific Equipment 23.2% 28.7% 14.5% 20.3% 15.2% 5.5% 10.2% 12.8% Professional, Sci. & Controlling In 23.0% 30.1% 11.9% 18.5% 16.1% 6.8% 12.3% 12.7% Rubber Gloves 25.5% 19.2% 10.9% 8.7% 34.1% -5.3% 1.4% 19.4% Heating and Cooling Equi.& Parts -12.6% -6.3% -2.2% -3.3% 11.4% 5.4% 8.7% -3.9% Export by country Singapore 32.3% 20.4% 8.1% 16.5% 16.8% -3.3% 5.6% 18.5% China 28.8% 21.2% 27.1% 20.5% 3.3% 12.8% -2.9% 28.0% EU 34.1% 21.6% 16.2% 9.3% 12.4% 11.4% 1.2% 19.4% US 14.4% 14.5% 10.7% 13.8% 13.4% -3.1% 8.9% 10.5% Japan 25.5% 18.0% 6.9% 20.4% 6.7% 5.8% -12.3% 17.5% Thailand 31.4% 7.4% 7.0% 30.2% 18.2% -3.9% -0.7% 14.6% Hong Kong 28.4% 22.2% 41.0% 54.9% 56.4% 43.2% 13.5% 19.6% Australia 50.5% 37.1% 14.2% 26.0% 22.0% -9.6% 36.7% 16.1% Germany 34.4% 23.9% 24.2% 2.3% 6.0% 13.2% 3.5% 21.2% Vietnam 46.4% 15.8% 16.3% 12.9% 5.0% 27.4% 2.1% 26.8% Philippines 34.6% 17.7% 14.1% 23.7% 41.2% 4.2% -4.5% 20.8% Import by end-use Capital -16.5% 11.6% 10.8% 5.0% 12.2% 35.4% 4.9% 15.5% Intermediate 24.1% 25.3% 13.5% 14.8% 13.8% -0.7% -0.1% 20.0% Consumption 21.9% 17.9% 5.7% 11.1% 6.6% -2.9% 7.3% 6.0% For Internal Circulation Page 5

6 Produced and issued by BANK ISLAM MALAYSIA BERHAD (Bank Islam) for private circulation only or for distribution under circumstances permitted by applicable laws. All information, opinions and estimates contained herein have been compiled or arrived at based on sources and assumptions believed to be reliable and in good faith at the time of issue of this document. This document is for information purposes only and has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied is made as to its adequacy, accuracy, completeness or correctness. All opinions and the content of this document are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by other business areas or groups of Bank Islam as a result of using different assumptions and criteria. No part of this document may be used, reproduced, distributed or published in any form or for any purpose without Bank Islam s prior written permission For Internal Circulation Page 6