ANRPC. Natural Rubber Trends & Statistics. Foreword. Volume 1 No. 9. November. A monthly bulletin of market trends and statistics published by

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1 ANRPC Natural Rubber Trends & Statistics A monthly bulletin of market trends and statistics published by Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries 7 th Floor, Bangunan Getah Asli (Menara), 148 Jalan Ampang, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia Tel: ; Fax: ; anrpc@streamyx.com Website: Members: Cambodia, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Vietnam Contact Persons: Prof. Dr. Djoko Said Damardjati, Secretary-General Volume 1 No. 9 Jom Jacob, Senior Economist November 2009 Foreword The Association s hectic schedule in November caused a delay in publishing this issue. The Annual Rubber Conference 2009, 32 nd Session of the Assembly, 37 th Meeting of the Executive Committee and the 3 rd Meetings of the Information & Statistics Committee and the Industry Matters Committee were successfully held from 2 to 9 November in Ho Chi Minh City. It merits special mention that all the 10 Member Governments attended the 32 nd Session of the Assembly. The highest attendance so far in the past was eight only. I would like to extend the Association s gratitude and indebtedness to the Government of Vietnam, particularly the Vietnam Rubber Group, for hosting these events in the most attractive and professional way with the active support of the Rubber Research Institute of Vietnam and the Vietnam Rubber Association. The Meeting of the Information & Statistics Committee reviewed the coverage and quality of information reported through the Monthly Bulletin of Rubber Statistics. The Meeting decided to change the publication s title as Natural Rubber Trends & Statistics with a view to reflecting all the contents. It was also decided to report prominent futures market prices of NR and consumption and export of the compound rubber coming under HS codes , , and , for which estimated NR content comes to beyond 95%. (Continued in Page 2) C O N T E N T S NR Supply Falls 5.1% until October Export of NR 3 Average Yield 3 Trends in Crude Petroleum Oil Prices 4 Trends in NR Prices 5 Table 1: Production of NR in Member Countries 6 Table 2: Consumption of NR in Member Countries 7 Table 3: Gross Export of NR from Member Countries 8 Table 4: Gross Import of NR in Member Countries 9 Table 5: Stock of NR with Member Countries 10 Table 6: Area Planted during each Year 11 Table 7: Rubber Area and Area 11 Table 8: Consumption of Compound Rubber 12 Table 9: Gross Export of Compound Rubber 13

2 SUPPLY FALLS 5.1% UNTIL OCTOBER 2009 More Severe Fall Anticipated for November 2009 Global supply of natural rubber (NR) continued to fall as per data available up to October 2009 from the eight countries which together account for 93% of the global supply. production of NR in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Vietnam, China, Sri Lanka and Cambodia is estimated to have fallen 5.1% in the latest 12 months in 2009 for which data are available. The following three tables consolidate the trends in production in the eight countries: Change in Production in 2009 from 2008 Thousand tonnes % change Thailand (January-September) % Indonesia (January- August) % Malaysia (January-October) % India (January-October) % Vietnam (January-October) % China (January-October) % Sri Lanka (January-October) % Cambodia (January- December) % Source: Reported by respective governments. Trends in Production of NR (Thousand tonnes) Thailand Indonesia Malaysia India Vietnam China Sri Lanka Cambodia Data for 2009 refer to 12-months to 31 October 2009 for Malaysia, India, Vietnam, China and Sri Lanka. The reference periods are 12- months to 30 September 2009 for Thailand, 12-months to 31 August 2009 for Indonesia and 12 months ending 31 December 2009 for Cambodia. Source: Reported by respective governments. Annual rates of growth in production of NR are given in the following table: Rate of Growth in NR Production (%) Thailand Indonesia Malaysia India Vietnam China Sri Lanka Cambodia Aggregate Data for 2009 refer to 12-months to 31 October 2009 for Malaysia, India, Vietnam, China and Sri Lanka. The reference periods are 12- months to 30 September 2009 for Thailand, 12-months to 31 August 2009 for Indonesia and 12 months ending 31 December 2009 for Cambodia. Source: Reported by respective governments. Foreword Foreword (Continued from Page 1) Trade in compound rubber has been on the increase in the past few years due to its advantages over natural rubber with reference to (i) import duty levied in China, (ii) export cess levied in Thailand and Malaysia and (iii) export restriction implemented through the ITRC. As another key outcome of the Meeting, Member Governments will organize training programme for equipping their statistical personnel to prepare scientific long-term forecasts of natural rubber supply from the respective countries. This will enable the ANRPC to publish long-term forecasts of NR Supply, starting from end of the next year. EXPORT OF NR Finally, let me whole-heartedly extend gratitude to all Member Governments for their valuable support in releasing this issue. Prof. Dr. Djoko Said Damardjati Secretary General Natural Rubber Trends & Statistics, Volume 1, No.9, November

3 The anticipated production for November 2009 and for the year 2009, as given in Table 1, are those reported by Member Governments in the first week of November Subsequent developments indicate that the supply in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and India was severely hit by unusually heavy rains during November Rubber plantations in Thailand s southern region and the north of Malaysia have been badly affected by flooding caused by torrential rains throughout November. This indicates the possibility of a substantial downward revision in the production anticipated for November 2009 and for the year Climate change has become an issue of serious concern on the supply potential of NR. Apart from fall in yield, even the traditional rubber growing regions in major producing countries are gradually rendered unsuitable for growing rubber. Unpredictability of climate limits the scope for developing and popularising regionspecific new clones. EXPORT OF NR Changes in export of NR during 2009 from the same period in the previous year are summarised in the table below: Change in Export in 2009 from 2008 Thousand % change tonnes Thailand (January-September) % Indonesia (January-August) % Malaysia (January-October) % Vietnam (January-October) % India (January-October) % Singapore (January-September) % Sri Lanka (January-October) % Cambodia (January-December) % Note: Exports from China are negligible. Source: Reported by respective governments. AVERAGE YIELD Average yield, measured in terms of annual production per hectare of tapped in ANRPC Member countries, for the period from 2005 to 2010 are given in the table below: Average Annual Yield (5) (Kg/ha) (2) Thailand (4) (4) Indonesia Malaysia (3) (4) India Vietnam China (4) Sri Lanka (4) Cambodia (4) Anticipated for 2009 (January to December). (2) Anticipated for 2010 (January to December). (3) Rubber forests in Sabah and Sarawak States are not accounted. (4) Not available with the government. (5) Given above are the yield data as reported by respective governments. They need not agree with the estimates computed by dividing production by tapped, because some countries do not account their entire tapped in estimating the yield. ANRPC s Annual Events in 2010 Venue: Kochi, Kerala State, India 4 October 2010: - Information & Statistics Committee 5 October 2010: - Industry Matters Committee 6 October 2010: - Annual Rubber Conference October 2010: - Opening Ceremony of the Assembly (33 rd Session) - Executive Committee 8 October 2010: - Executive Committee 9 October 2010: - Field visits - Assembly (33 rd Session) ANRPC Annual Rubber Conference 2010 Kochi (Cochin), India 6 October 2010 Natural Rubber Trends & Statistics, Volume 1, No.9, November

4 TRENDS IN CRUDE PETROLEUM OIL PRICES Sustained economic growth in China and other Asian countries is contributing to a rebound in world oil consumption. Although oil inventories with the OECD countries remain high, optimism for a continued economic turnaround combined with the impact of OPEC s production cuts have driven oil prices higher. Weekly average of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude petroleum oil prices rose from US dollar per barrel in the week ended 3 October 2009 to US dollar per barrel in the week ended 24 October The prices fell marginally in November, averaging to US dollar per barrel in the week ended 21 November The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the U.S. Government forecasts the WTI crude oil prices to average about $77 per barrel this winter (October March 2010). Monthly average WTI prices is forecasted at 81 US dollar per barrel in December 2010, assuming U.S. and world economic conditions continue to improve, particularly in Asia, where current growth has been stronger than expected. The forecast assumes U.S. real GDP grows by 1.9 percent in 2010 and world oilconsumption-weighted real GDP grows by 2.6 percent. However, if the economic recovery stalls and oil consumption does not rebound, oil prices could weaken given the high level of inventories. Average prices of WTI crude petroleum oil are given in the table below. Average WTI Spot FOB Price of Crude Petroleum Oil (US$/barrel) US dollar per barrel Year Year Year Year Year Year Year 2009 (anticipated on Nov. 09) Year 2010 (forecast in Nov. 2009) Week ended October 03, Week ended October 10, Week ended October 17, Week ended October 24, Week ended November 01, Week ended November 07, Week ended November 14, Week ended November 21, On November 24, Source: Energy Information Administration, The U.S. government. (1 Barrel = 42 US gallons = 159 litre) Natural Rubber Trends & Statistics, Volume 1, No.9, November

5 TRENDS IN NATURAL RUBBER PRICES Weekly average prices of TSR, RSS and Latex in important markets from July 2009 onwards are given below: Weekly Average Prices of Natural Rubber (US $ per 100 kg) TSR RSS Latex End of the Week Kuala Lumpur SMR20 Bangkok STR20 (2) Bangkok RSS3 (2) Singapore RSS3 (3) Kottayam (India) RSS4 (4) Colombo RSS1 (5) Malaysia Latex 60% (6) July 04, July 11, July 18, July 25, Aug. 01, Aug. 08, Aug. 15, Aug. 22, Aug. 29, Sep. 05, Sep. 12, Sep. 19, Sep. 26, Oct. 03, Oct. 10, Oct. 17, Oct. 24, Oct. 31, Nov. 07, Nov. 14, Nov. 21, FOB physical price at 5.00 p.m. quoted by buyers. (2) FOB physical price reported by Rubber Research Institute of Thailand. (3) FOB physical price at noon quoted by buyers in SICOM. (4) Average spot price (not including taxes or duties) reported by the Rubber Board. (5) Average rate pertaining to Colombo Auction. (6) Average farm-gate prices in North, Central and South Malaysia for dry rubber content. Not available. ANRPC s New Website to be Launched on 1 st January ANRPC s existing website ( will be replaced with a totally improved new version, to be launched by 1 st January Apart from many other useful features, daily prices of prominent forms of natural rubber in important physical markets and prominent futures market prices would be available at the website on the same day itself. Updates of developments in natural rubber markets across countries and rubber industry news world over would be available on a daily basis. The site provides free access to all publications of the ANRPC. Natural Rubber Trends & Statistics, Volume 1, No.9, November

6 Table 1: Production of Natural Rubber in ANRPC Member Countries ( 000 tonnes) Year Cambodia China India Indonesia Malaysia (2) * * * January * * * * * February * * March * * April * * May * * June * * July * * August * * September * * * October * * * November * * * December * * * (2) * 0.0 * * January * * * * * February * * March * * April * * May * * June * * July * * August * * September * * October * * * November * * * December * * * Refers to the production for the year 2009 as anticipated in November 2009; (2) Production for the year 2010 as anticipated in November 2009; (3) Monthly data refer to actual data for the period up to August 2009, provisional (preliminary) data for September - October 2009 and anticipated data for November 2009 to January * Not available with the government. Source: Reported by respective governments. Commodity Description: The above data cover commodities under the six-digit HS , , & For Thailand and Vietnam the data also include estimated NR content in compound rubber under HS , , &

7 Table 2: Consumption of Natural Rubber in ANRPC Member Countries ( 000 tonnes) Year Cambodia China India Indonesia Malaysia * (2) 0.0 * * January * February March April May June July August September October November December Less than Less than Less than Less than (2) 0.0 * * * January Negligible Negligible Negligible * * February Negligible Negligible March Negligible Negligible April Negligible Negligible May Negligible Negligible June Negligible Negligible July Negligible Negligible August Negligible Negligible September Negligible Negligible October Negligible Negligible * November Negligible Negligible * December Negligible Negligible * Refers to the consumption during the year 2009 as anticipated in November 2009; (2) Consumption during the year 2010 as anticipated in November 2009; (3) Monthly data refer to actual data for the period up to August 2009, provisional (preliminary) data for September - October 2009 and anticipated data for November 2009 to January * Not available with the government. Source: Reported by respective governments. Commodity Description: The above data cover commodities under the six-digit HS , , & For Thailand and Vietnam the data also include NR content in compound rubber under HS , , & (Please refer Table 8 for separate data of compound rubber). 7

8 Table 3: Gross Export of Natural Rubber from ANRPC Member Countries ( 000 tonnes) Year Cambodia China India Indonesia Malaysia (2) * * * January * * * Negligible Negligible * * February * * Negligible Negligible March * * Negligible Negligible April * * Negligible Negligible May * * Negligible Negligible 3 Negligible June * * Negligible Negligible 9 Negligible July * * Negligible Negligible 9 Negligible August * * Negligible Negligible 3 Negligible September * * Negligible Negligible * October * * Negligible Negligible * November * * Negligible Negligible * December * * Negligible Negligible * * (2) * * * * January * * * * * * February * * March * * April * * May * * June * * July * * August * * September * * October * * 9.0 * * November * * 5.6 * * December * * 7.1 * * Refers to the export during the year 2009 as anticipated in November 2009; (2) Export during the year 2010 as anticipated in November 2009; (3) Monthly data refer to actual data for the period up to August 2009, provisional (preliminary) data for September - October 2009 and anticipated data for November 2009 to January * Not available with the government. Source: Reported by respective governments. Commodity Description: The above data cover commodities under the six-digit HS , , & For Thailand and Vietnam the data also include NR content in compound rubber under HS , , & (Please refer Table 9 for separate data of compound rubber). 8

9 Table 4: Gross Import of Natural Rubber in ANRPC Member Countries ( 000 tonnes) Year Cambodia China India Indonesia Malaysia (2) 0.0 * * January * * February March April May June July August September * October * November * December * * 3.8 * (2) 0.0 * * * January * * 0.23 * * February * March * April * May * June * July * August * September * October * * November * * December * * Refers to the import during the year 2009 as anticipated in November 2009; (2) Import during the year 2010 as anticipated in November 2009; (3) Monthly data refer to actual data for the period up to August 2009, provisional (preliminary) data for September - October 2009 and anticipated data for November 2009 to January * Not available with the government. Source: Reported by respective governments. Commodity Description: Cover commodities under the six-digit HS , , & For Thailand and Vietnam the data also include compound rubber under HS , , &

10 Table 5: Closing Stock of Natural Rubber in ANRPC Member Countries ( 000 tonnes) Year Cambodia China India Indonesia (4) Malaysia (2) * * * January * * * * * * * * * February * * * * * * March * * * * * * April * * * * * * May * * * * * * June * * * * * * July * * * * * August * * * * * September * * * * * * October * * * * * * November * * * * * * December * * * * * * 11.2 * (2) * * * * January * * * * * * February * * March * * April * * May * * June * * July * * August * * September * * October * * 3.8 * * November * * 3.6 * * December * * 2.5 * * Refers to the closing stock in December 2009 as anticipated in November 2009; (2) Closing stock in December 2010 as anticipated in November 2009; (3) Monthly data refer to actual for the period up to August 2009, provisional data for September - October 2009 and anticipates November 2009 to January * Not available. Source: Reported by respective governments. ; (4) Stock with Estates. Commodity Description: The above data cover commodities under the six-digit HS , , & For Thailand and Vietnam the data also include compound rubber under HS , , &

11 Year Table 6: Area Planted during each Year in ANRPC Member Countries ( 000 hectares) Cambodia China India Indonesia Malaysia Papua New Guinea Sri Lanka Thailand Vietnam Newplante 2005 * (3) * * * (3) * * * (3) * * * (3) * * (4) (3) * 20.0 * * * (2) * * 44.2 (3) * * * * * * Year Area planted during 2009 as anticipated in November 2009; (2) Area to be planted during 2010 as anticipated in November 2009; (3) newplanted or replanted during each year (segregated data are not available with the Government); (4) This refers to the total newplanted in Cambodia from 2003 to 2009 (Segregation according to year of planting is not available with the Government); * Not available with the Government. Source: Reported by respective governments. Table 7: Rubber Area (3) and Rubber Area in ANRPC Member Countries ( 000 hectares) Cambodia China India Indonesia Malaysia Papua New Guinea Sri Lanka Thailand Vietnam 2005 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * (2) * * * * * * * * * * * * Area at the end of 2009 as anticipated in November 2009; (2) Area at the end of 2010 as anticipated in November 2009; (3) rubber need not agree with the data of planted as given in Table 6, due to discrepancies in the data reported by the Member Governments concerned. * Not available with the government. Source: Reported by respective governments. 11

12 Table 8: Consumption of Compound Rubber in ANRPC Member Countries ( 000 tonnes) Year Cambodia China India Indonesia Malaysia * * * * * * * * * * * * (2) 0.0 * * * * January * * * * * * * * * February * * * * * * March * * * * * * April * * * * * * May * * * * * * June * * * * * * July * * * * * * August * * * * * * September * * * * * * October * * * * * * November * * * * * * December * * * * * * * * * * * * * (2) * * 17.0 January * * * 0.05 * * February * * 0.05 * March * * 0.06 * April * * 0.04 * May * * 0.05 * June * * 0.05 * July * * 0.05 * August * * 0.05 * September * * 0.19 * October * * 0.83 * November * * 0.04 * December * * 0.04 * Refers to the consumption during the year 2009 as anticipated in November 2009; (2) Consumption during the year 2010 as anticipated in November 2009; (3) Monthly data refer to actual data for the period up to August 2009, provisional (preliminary) data for September - October 2009 and anticipated data for November 2009 to January * Not available with the government. Source: Reported by respective governments. Commodity Description: The above data cover commodities under the six-digit HS , , &

13 Table 9: Gross Export of Compound Rubber from ANRPC Member Countries ( 000 tonnes) Year Cambodia China India Indonesia Malaysia * * * * * * * * * * * * (2) 0.0 * * * * January * * * * * * * Negligible * February * * * * * Negligible March * * * * * April * * * * * May * * * * * June * * * * July * * * * August * * * * Negligible September * * * * 0.5 * October * * * * 0.1 * November * * * * Negligible * December * * * * Negligible * * * * * 0.5 * (2) 0.0 * * * 40.0 January * * * * * February * * 0.1 Negligible March * * April * * 0.1 Negligible May * * June * * July * * 0.1 Negligible August * * September * * Negligible October * * * November * * Negligible * December * * Negligible * Refers to the export during the year 2009 as anticipated in November 2009; (2) Export during the year 2010 as anticipated in November 2009; (3) Monthly data refer to actual data for the period up to August 2009, provisional (preliminary) data for September - October 2009 and anticipated data for November 2009 to January * Not available with the government. Source: Reported by respective governments. Commodity Description: The above data cover commodities under the six-digit HS , , &