Switzerland. IACSS, 27 July Institute of Economic Studies Charles University in Prague, Czech Republic. Dynamic Gravity Model
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1 Jan, Pavel Jan, Pavel Institute of Economic Studies Charles University in Prague, Czech Republic IACSS, 27 July 2013
2 Research topic Jan, Pavel Research question Which institutions affect international trade?
3 Contents Jan, Pavel
4 Contents Jan, Pavel
5 The Idea of Gravity of Trade Jan, Pavel Empirically there are two main factors which influence the volume of trade between two countries: Size of the countries, typically measured as GDP; Distance between the countries. This is similar to the law of gravitation from physics. Hypothesis There are other institutional factors which directly impact the trade volume.
6 There are several sources of persistent linkages in international trade: 1. Learning about tariffs and other trade barriers 2. Protection persistence (acceptance of new goods after the tariff is abolished) 3. Relationships with trading partners 4. Investment decisions of firms (e.g. setting up a subsidiary for production of components) Jan, Pavel Consequence We need to work with dynamic version of the gravity model.
7 Structure of the Dynamic Consumer utility over time max t=0 ( 1 (1 + ρ) t U(C jt) C jt = Dynamic evolution of capital i β 1 σ σ i ) σ c σ 1 σ 1 σ ijt Jan, Pavel K jt = Φ jt + (1 δ)k jt 1 Φ = ( i β 1 σ σ i Production and consumption in each period ) σ I σ 1 σ 1 σ ijt y jt = p jt K α jt y jt = i p ijt c ijt + i p ijt I ijt
8 Contents Jan, Pavel
9 Estimated Thel estimation equation has the following form: ATRADE ijt = β 0 + βx ijt + +γ it + γ jt + ɛ ijt (1) where the vector x is composed as Jan, Pavel x = [ATRADE 1, ATRADE 2, DIST, POPL, ER, LANG, BORD, HIST, LAND, RECS, EURO, EURO 1, EURO 2, GOVEF, GOVSP, INVFR, FINFR, PRIGHT, CORR, EDUC] Estimation This model is estimated by two step generalized method of moments (GMM).
10 Institutional Variables We combined various databases: Eurostat, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, CEPII, Human Development Reports and the Heritage Foundation: government effectiveness denoted by GOVEF, business freedom denoted by BUSFR, trade freedom denoted by TRFR, fiscal freedom denoted by FISFR, monetary freedom denoted by MONFR, government spending denoted by GOVSP, investment freedom denoted by INVFR, financial freedom denoted by FINFR, enforcement of property rights denoted by PRIGHT, education denoted by EDUC and corruption freedom denoted by CORR. Jan, Pavel
11 Data We analyze patterns of international trade of Austria, Germany and. Trading partners The sample of trading partners includes 211 countries in the case of Austria and 176 countries in the case of. Time period We analyze trade flows over the period in the case of Austria and over the period in the case of. Observations The total number of observations is 3587 for Austria and 2816 for both. Jan, Pavel
12 Contents Jan, Pavel
13 Austria: Two-step GMM V ariable Coefficient value Std. error Pr(> z ) ATRADE *** ATRADE *** DIST *** POPL *** ER *** LANG *** BORD *** HIST LAND *** RECS *** EURO ** EURO *** EURO *** GOVEF BUSFR TRFR FISFR GOVSP MONFR INVFR FINFR PRIGHT * CORR EDUC *** const *** Jan, Pavel Wald chi2(24): ***
14 Germany: Two-step GMM V ariable Coefficient value Std. error Pr(> z ) ATRADE *** ATRADE *** DIST *** POPL LANG BORD LAND RECS ** EURO EURO ** EURO *** GOVEF BUSFR TRFR FISFR GOVSP ** MONFR INVFR FINFR PRIGHT CORR EDUC const Jan, Pavel Wald chi2(22): ***
15 : Two-step GMM V ariable Coefficient value Std. error Pr(> z ) ATRADE *** ATRADE *** DIST *** POPL *** ER *** LANG BORD LAND *** RECS *** EURO EURO EURO TRBARR TRBARR TRBARR GOVEF BUSFR TRFR FISFR GOVSP * MONFR INVFR FINFR PRIGHT CORR EDUC const Jan, Pavel Wald chi2(26): ***
16 Contents Jan, Pavel
17 Jan, Pavel 1. We find strong evidence of persistent trade flows. 2. Recession dummy for year 2009 was strongly significant. 3. Institutional variables that prove highly significant are: level of education (Austria) and level of government spending ( ). 4. Euro adoption however shows persistence effect as lagged presence of euro in the past 1-2 years is more significant to international trade.
18 Jan, Pavel Thank you for your attention.
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