Frequency of Price Adjustment and Pass-through

Transcription

1 Frequency of Price Adjustment and Pass-through Gita Gopinath Harvard and NBER Oleg Itskhoki Harvard CEFIR/NES March 11, / 39

2 Motivation Micro-level studies document significant heterogeneity in the frequency of price adjustment 2 / 39

3 Motivation Micro-level studies document significant heterogeneity in the frequency of price adjustment Primitive determinants of frequency are difficult to measure Menu Costs Volatility of Shocks Curvature of the Profit Function 2 / 39

4 Motivation Micro-level studies document significant heterogeneity in the frequency of price adjustment Primitive determinants of frequency are difficult to measure Menu Costs Volatility of Shocks Curvature of the Profit Function International data provides an observable cost shock exchange rate shock Pass-through of cost shocks are shaped by some of the same primitives that determine frequency 2 / 39

5 Motivation Micro-level studies document significant heterogeneity in the frequency of price adjustment Primitive determinants of frequency are difficult to measure Menu Costs Volatility of Shocks Curvature of the Profit Function International data provides an observable cost shock exchange rate shock Pass-through of cost shocks are shaped by some of the same primitives that determine frequency Study the link between frequency and pass-through to: 1 Sources of variation in frequency / transmission of shocks 2 Evidence of real rigidities 3 Test theories of price setting 2 / 39

6 What we do Document a positive relation between frequency and long-run pass-through (LRPT) LRPT HighFreq 2 LRPT LowFreq LRPT increases from 15% to 75% from first to tenth frequency deciles 3 / 39

7 What we do Document a positive relation between frequency and long-run pass-through (LRPT) LRPT HighFreq 2 LRPT LowFreq LRPT increases from 15% to 75% from first to tenth frequency deciles Theory: positive relation between LRPT and frequency heterogeneity in mark-up variability 3 / 39

8 What we do Document a positive relation between frequency and long-run pass-through (LRPT) LRPT HighFreq 2 LRPT LowFreq LRPT increases from 15% to 75% from first to tenth frequency deciles Theory: positive relation between LRPT and frequency heterogeneity in mark-up variability Standard model with CES demand or exogenous frequency (e.g., Calvo) imply LRPT uncorrelated with frequency 3 / 39

9 What we do Document a positive relation between frequency and long-run pass-through (LRPT) LRPT HighFreq 2 LRPT LowFreq LRPT increases from 15% to 75% from first to tenth frequency deciles Theory: positive relation between LRPT and frequency heterogeneity in mark-up variability Standard model with CES demand or exogenous frequency (e.g., Calvo) imply LRPT uncorrelated with frequency Calibrate and simulate a dynamic menu cost model to show: Variable mark-ups generate quantitatively large effects: 37% of the variation in frequency 3 / 39

10 Empirical Findings: Dataset BLS micro data on import prices at the dock for the U.S. (Gopinath and Rigobon, 2007) Monthly reported transaction prices for 55k imported items, period Data Sub-sample Dollar priced goods (90% of all goods) Manufactured Goods Market Transactions Crop Outliers 4 / 39

11 Long-Run Pass-through Estimates Life-long Micro-Regressions: 0.6 p i,c LR = α c + β LR RER i,c LR + ɛi,c (1) 0.4 p it RER t 0.2 t 1 t Time 5 / 39

12 Long-Run Pass-through Estimates Life-long Micro-Regressions: p i,c LR = α c + β LR RER i,c LR + ɛi,c (1) Aggregate Pass-through Regressions: n P c,t = α c + β 1,j RER c,t j + ɛ c,t (2) j=0 Includes country fixed effect, SE clustered by country and 4 digit sector code. 5 / 39

13 Life-Long Micro-Regressions All Countries Median Freq. β LR σ(β LR ) N Manufacturing Low Frequency High Frequency Differentiated Low Frequency High Frequency / 39

14 Life-Long Micro-Regressions High-Income OECD Subsample Median Freq. β LR σ(β LR ) N Manufacturing Low Frequency High Frequency Differentiated Low Frequency High Frequency / 39

15 Life-Long Micro-Regressions Regions Median Freq. β LR σ(β LR ) N Japan Low Frequency High Frequency Euro Area Low Frequency High Frequency Canada Low Frequency High Frequency Non HIOECD Low Frequency High Frequency / 39

16 Table: Life-long pass-through, 3 and more price changes Median Freq. β LR σ(β LR ) N All Countries Manufacturing Low Frequency High Frequency Differentiated Low Frequency High Frequency High-Income OECD Manufacturing Low Frequency High Frequency Differentiated Low Frequency High Frequency / 39

17 Life-long Pass-through Frequency Deciles, Manufactured Goods 0.6 All Countries 0.8 High Income OECD Life Long Pass through Life long Pass through Frequency Frequency 10 / 39

18 Aggregate Pass-through Regressions Manufactured Goods 0.25 All Countries, Manufactured Goods 0.5 High Income OECD, Manufactured Goods Aggregate Pass through High Frequency Low Frequency Aggregate Pass through High Frequency Low Frequency Horizon, months Horizon, months 11 / 39

19 Aggregate Pass-through Regressions Differentiated Goods 0.30 All Countries, Differentiated Goods 0.5 High Income OECD, Differentiated Goods Aggregate Pass through High Frequency Low Frequency Aggregate Pass through High Frequency Low Frequency Horizon, months Horizon, months 12 / 39

20 Aggregate Pass-through Regressions High-Income OECD Subsample, Differentiated Goods Aggregate Pass through Bin 1 (most inflexible) Bin 2 Bin 3 Bin Horizon, months 13 / 39

21 Summary Slide Relation between Frequency and Pass-through Life long Pass through Frequency 14 / 39

22 Frequency and Size 0.16 Size of Price Adjustment % quantile Median 25% quantile Frequency Deciles No correlation between frequency and size 15 / 39

23 Substitutions Table: Substitutions Decile Freq Life 1 Life 2 Freq sub 1 Freq sub / 39

24 Frequency and Pass-through Primitive Parameters Mark up Variability, ε MC Variability, η Cost Sensitivity to ER, φ Menu Cost, κ Sizes of the Shocks, σ a Pass through Frequency 17 / 39

25 Frequency and Pass-through Primitive Parameters Mark up Variability, ε MC Variability, η Cost Sensitivity to ER, φ Menu Cost, κ Sizes of the Shocks, σ a Pass through Frequency Sources of variable mark-ups: Curvature of demand (e.g., Kimball demand) Strategic Complementarities (Atkeson and Burstein, 2005) 17 / 39

26 Analytical Model Static (or two period) menu cost model Problem of the firm Variable elasticity of demand Extensions: (i) variable marginal costs; (ii) demand shocks 18 / 39

27 Analytical Model Static (or two period) menu cost model Problem of the firm Variable elasticity of demand Extensions: (i) variable marginal costs; (ii) demand shocks Previous Literature: Barro (1972) Rotemberg and Saloner (1987) Romer (1989) Ball and Mankiw (1994) 18 / 39

28 Demand Demand schedule: q = ϕ(p σ, ε), σ > 1 and ε 0 Price elasticity of demand: Super-Elasticity of demand: ln ϕ(p σ, ε) σ σ(p σ, ε) = ln p ε ε(p σ, ε) = ln σ(p σ, ε). ln p Normalization: σ(1) = σ, ε(1) = ε, ϕ(1) = 1 Example (Klenow-Willis): ϕ(p) = A [ 1 ε ln p ] σ/ε 19 / 39

29 Costs and Profits Cost Function: C(q a, e; φ) = (1 a)(1 + φe)cq, a is idiosyncratic productivity shock e is a real exchange rate shock φ [0, 1] is sensitivity to exchange rate shock ( local costs ) a and e are independent with Ea = Ee = 0 and standard deviations σ a and σ e. Normalization: c = (σ 1)/σ 20 / 39

30 Price Setting Firm sets price before observing shocks, p 0 After shock, can choose to adjust price to p(a, e) = arg max Π(p a, e), Π(a, e) Π ( p(a, e) a, e ) p 21 / 39

31 Price Setting Firm sets price before observing shocks, p 0 After shock, can choose to adjust price to p(a, e) = arg max Π(p a, e), Π(a, e) Π ( p(a, e) a, e ) p Will adjust if L(a, e) Π(a, e) Π( p 0 a, e) > κ Region of Non-Adjustment { } κ = (a, e) : L(a, e) κ 21 / 39

32 Price Setting Firm sets price before observing shocks, p 0 After shock, can choose to adjust price to p(a, e) = arg max Π(p a, e), Π(a, e) Π ( p(a, e) a, e ) p Will adjust if L(a, e) Π(a, e) Π( p 0 a, e) > κ Region of Non-Adjustment { } κ = (a, e) : L(a, e) κ Initial Price: p 0 = arg max E Π(p a, e) p(0, 0) = 1 p 21 / 39

33 Log Desired price: Exchange Rate Pass-through ln p(a, e) µ(p) a + φe + ln c 22 / 39

34 Exchange Rate Pass-through Log Desired price: ln p(a, e) µ(p) a + φe + ln c Taylor approximation: p(a, e) p 0 p 0 Ψ ( a + φe), Ψ 1 1 µ(1) p = ε σ 1 22 / 39

35 Log Desired price: Exchange Rate Pass-through ln p(a, e) µ(p) a + φe + ln c Taylor approximation: p(a, e) p 0 p 0 Ψ ( a + φe), Ψ 1 1 µ(1) p = ε σ 1 Exchange rate pass-through: ln p(a, e) Ψ e φψ = e a=e=0 Pass-through decreases in ε and increases in φ Pass-through depends uniquely on {ε, φ, σ} φ 1 + ε σ 1 22 / 39

36 Frequency of Price Adjustment Definition: probability of price adjustment Φ = Pr { (a, e) : L(a, e) > κ } 23 / 39

37 Frequency of Price Adjustment Definition: probability of price adjustment Φ = Pr { (a, e) : L(a, e) > κ } Approximation to the profit loss function: L(a, e) 1 2 σ 1( ) 2, p(a, e) p0 Ψ 23 / 39

38 Frequency of Price Adjustment Definition: probability of price adjustment Φ = Pr { (a, e) : L(a, e) > κ } Approximation to the profit loss function: L(a, e) 1 2 σ 1 Ψ ( ) 2, p(a, e) p0 }{{} Ψ ( a+φe) 23 / 39

39 Frequency of Price Adjustment Definition: probability of price adjustment Φ = Pr { (a, e) : L(a, e) > κ } Approximation to the profit loss function: L(a, e) 1 2 σ 1 Ψ ( ) 2, p(a, e) p0 }{{} Ψ ( a+φe) = 1 2 (σ 1)Ψ( a + φe ) 2, Recall that Ψ = 1/ [ ] 1 + ε σ 1 An increase in ε flattens out profit function Two effects: curvature vs. pass-through 23 / 39

40 Summary: Frequency and Pass-through Exchange Rate Pass-through: Ψ e = φψ = φ 1 + ε σ 1 Frequency: { } 2 κ Φ Pr X >, Σ σa 2 + φ 2 σ 2 (σ 1)Ψ Σ e, X ( a + φe)/ Σ is a normalized RV, e.g. N (0, 1) Frequency increases in Ψ, Σ, σ and decreases in κ 24 / 39

41 Summary: Frequency and Pass-through Exchange Rate Pass-through: Ψ e = φψ = φ 1 + ε σ 1 Frequency: { } 2 κ Φ Pr X >, Σ σa 2 + φ 2 σ 2 (σ 1)Ψ Σ e, X ( a + φe)/ Σ is a normalized RV, e.g. N (0, 1) Frequency increases in Ψ, Σ, σ and decreases in κ Positive relationship between Ψ e and Φ can be induced by: Variation in ε Variation in σ if ε > 0 Variation in φ: limited by σ 2 e /σ 2 a 24 / 39

42 Dynamic Model Dynamic menu cost model with domestic and foreign firms Two sources of shocks: idiosyncratic productivity shocks exchange rate shocks (semi-aggregate) Wage-based real exchange rate: E = W /W Partial equilibrium: wage rate is given exogenously 25 / 39

43 Firms: Demand and Cost Function Demand: Kimball consumption aggregator in each sector ( ) 1 Ω Cjs Ψ dj = 1, Ω = 1 + ω Ω Ω C s Marginal cost: MC jt = W (1 φ) t Wt φ, A jt A jt is the idiosyncratic productivity shock: a jt = ρ a a j,t 1 + σ a u jt, u jt iid N (0, 1) j Ω, Ω = 1 + ω firms: [0, 1] domestic firms with φ = 0 [1, 1 + ω] foreign firms with φ (0, 1] 26 / 39

44 State vector for firm j: Dynamic Price Setting S jt = (P j,t 1, A jt ; P t, W t, W t ) Bellman Equations for the Value of the Firm: V N j (S t ) = Π jt (P j,t 1 ) + E St+1 S t Q(S t+1 )V j (S t+1 ) { j (S t ) = max Πjt (P) + E St+1 S t Q(S t+1 )V j (S t+1 ) }, P V j (S t ) = max { Vj N (S t ), Vj A } (S t ) κ jt V A Policy Function: { P j (S t ) = arg max Πjt (P jt ) + E St+1 S t Q(S t+1 )V j (S t ) } P { Pj,t 1, V N P jt = jt > Vjt A κ jt, P jt, otherwise. 27 / 39

45 Bellman Operator Iteration on a Grid: Grids for P j, P, E, A Simulation Procedure Simulation of Prices for N = 12, 000 domestic and foreign firms for T = 120 months repeated 100 times Firms have random lives in the sample with an average number of price adjustments equal to 3.5 Two fixed point problems: Price level: Forecasting Rule: ln P t (E t ) = N j=0 ln P jt (P t, A jt, E t )dj E t ln P t+1 = γ 0 + γ 1 ln P t + γ 2 E t ln E t+1 28 / 39

46 Klenow and Willis (2006) specification: Baseline Calibration ψ(x) Ψ 1 (x) = [ 1 ε ln x ] σ/ε, x Pjt /P t Parameter Symbol Values Discount factor δ /12 Menu Cost κ 2.5% Exchange Rate Shock e 2.5% Idiosyncratic Shock σ a 8.5% ρ a 0.95 Fraction of Imports ω/(1 + ω) 16.7% Cost Sensitivity to W φ / 39

47 0.8 Frequency and Pass-through Variation in ε [0, 40] Pass through Importers Frequency 30 / 39

48 0.8 Frequency and Pass-through Import Prices vs. Consumer Prices Pass through Importers All Firms Domestic Frequency 30 / 39

49 Aggregate Pass-through Regressions Varying ε 0.25 Aggregate Pass through ε=10 ε=20 ε= Horizon 31 / 39

50 Frequency and Pass-through Effect of φ [0, 1] and κ [0.5%, 7.5%], ε = 4 Pass through Variation in φ Variation in ε Variation in κ Frequency 32 / 39

51 Calvo σ = 5, ε = 0 Aggregate Pass through High Freq: 0.28 Low Freq: LL PT: 0.70 LL PT: Horizon, months 33 / 39

52 Calvo σ = 5, ε = 4 Aggregate Pass through High Freq: 0.28 Low Freq: LL PT: 0.37 LL PT: Horizon, months 34 / 39

53 Calvo vs Menu Cost Aggregate Pass through Calvo, Low Freq Calvo, High Freq 0.1 MC, Low Freq MC, High Freq Horizon, months 35 / 39

54 Model vs Data Frequency and Pass-through Model Life long Pass through Data Frequency 36 / 39

55 Life long Pass through Data Model vs Data Frequency and Pass-through κ = 5% κ = 2.5% κ = 1% Frequency 36 / 39

56 Model vs Data Frequency and Pass-through Model (ε only) Pass through Smoothed Data Model (ε and κ) Frequency 36 / 39

57 Model vs Data Frequency and Size Only κ Only ε Size Data ε and κ Frequency 36 / 39

58 Model vs Data Summary Data Variation in ε κ ε and κ Slope(Freq., LRPT) Min LRPT Max LRPT Slope(Freq., size) Min size 5.4% 3.8% 4.8% 5.8% Max size 7.4% 11.8% 12.2% 8.2% Std. dev. of Freq Min freq Max freq / 39

59 Conclusion Exploit the open economy context to understand frequency and dynamic response to cost shocks Document a positive relationship between LRPT and frequency: As frequency increases from 0.03 to 1, pass-through increases from 0.15 to 0.75 Models with incomplete pass-through and endogenous frequency choice are consistent with this pattern, while standard CES-Calvo framework is not Variable mark-ups generate quantitatively large variation in frequency 38 / 39

60 Pass-through and Currency Choice 1 Aggregate Pass through, β(n) Non Dollar Aggregate Dollar Horizon n (months) 39 / 39