Balance Sheet Recessions

Transcription

1 Balance Sheet Recessions Zhen Huo and José-Víctor Ríos-Rull University of Minnesota Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis CAERP CEPR NBER Conference on Money Credit and Financial Frictions Huo & Ríos-Rull Balance Sheet Recessions 1/34

2 Can households financial distress generate a recession? In Standard Models it is Difficult The economy has a lot of wealth. Only the poor would be really affected: They want to work harder. An expansion. This project 1 We build a model with goods market frictions where financial distress leads to a recession. 2 Crucially the attempt to save reduces productivity due to real frictions. 3 We provide a theory of price dispersion during the onset of the recession. Huo & Ríos-Rull Balance Sheet Recessions 2/34

3 The logic When hit by adverse financial shocks agents tend to increase saving by cutting consumption expenditures. Goods market frictions translate lower consumption expenditures into output loss despite the decline of prices. There is a realignment of consumption patterns: large drops of consumption for the poorest but modest increase of consumption for the richest. When we explicitly add housing that can be used as collateral increased financial frictions greatly amplifies the magnitude of the recession. Huo & Ríos-Rull Balance Sheet Recessions 3/34

4 The ingredients Heterogeneous agents model (How else can there be financial frictions?) There are very rich rich poor very poor and borrowers; lucky and unlucky: a modern economy s earnings and wealth distribution. Price dispersion: the rich are not into hassles (they pay higher prices). Storage economy: fixed return to savings. In addition to goods (that can be saved) there are services (that cannot be saved). Goods (services really) market frictions a la Bai Rios-Rull and Storesletten (211) with a touch of Lagos and Wright (25) Huo & Ríos-Rull Balance Sheet Recessions 4/34

5 The contribution We show that 1 Financial distress can lead to a recession even when agents own a lot of wealth. 2 Goods market frictions are crucial in generating the recession. 3 No nominal rigidities are required. 4 Price dispersion is counter-cyclical. 5 With housing the effects of financial distress are more pronounced. Huo & Ríos-Rull Balance Sheet Recessions 5/34

6 The Model Huo & Ríos-Rull Balance Sheet Recessions 6/34

7 Environment Many agents that live forever and have idyosincratic shocks to endowments. Two goods per period: Numeraire goods Used for consumption and storage. As if traded in a centralized market. Services Used only for consumption. Traded in decentralized markets and subject to search frictions. Huo & Ríos-Rull Balance Sheet Recessions 7/34

8 Preference Agents period utility function is u(c s d). Agents value numeraire goods consumption c and services s. To obtain services agents have to exert search efforts d s = dψ b (q). Ψ b (q): probability of a shopper finding services. Huo & Ríos-Rull Balance Sheet Recessions 8/34

9 Competitive search in services markets Markets are indexed by price p and market tightness q = T D. In market (p q) Active markets sellers have guaranteed revenue pψ s (q) ζ equilibrium determined object ζ. Buyers face a trade-off between p and Ψ b (q) when choosing markets: Rich agents go to high p high q markets. Poor agents go to low p low q markets. Huo & Ríos-Rull Balance Sheet Recessions 9/34

10 Endowments An agent receives y s units of active locations capable of producing services. When a location is found by a buyer 1 unit of services is produced. When a location is not found by a buyer nothing is produced. An agent receives y c units of numeraire goods that can be consumed sold or stored/loaned. y = {y c y s } follows a Markov process Π yy. Households asset position is a. There is an ad-hoc borrowing limit a. Huo & Ríos-Rull Balance Sheet Recessions 1/34

11 Agents recursive problem subject to V (y a) = max a cs dpq u(c s d) + β y Π yy V (y a ) p s + c + a (1 + r) a + ζ y s + y c s= d Ψ b (q) ζ p Ψ s (q) a a. Note that agents choose consumption and savings as well as which market (p q) to go to. Huo & Ríos-Rull Balance Sheet Recessions 11/34

12 Macroeconomic Aggregates (what NIPA measures)? Aggregate active locations: T s = y s dx(y a) Aggregate numeraire goods endowment: Y c = y c dx(y a) Aggregate savings: A = a dx(y a) Aggregate output (GDP): Ts Y = ra + Y c + p i Ψ f (q i ) di ra + Y c + p M(D T s ) Total output is increasing in aggregate search effort D. Huo & Ríos-Rull Balance Sheet Recessions 12/34

13 Labor and Productivity We impute labor to locations and then we can separate output changes due to labor and to productivity. Labor To maintain a location ɛ units of labor is required. When matched with a buyer additional 1 ɛ units of labor is required to produce services. Aggregate labor is N = ɛ T s + (1 ɛ) Ts Ψ f (q i) di Productivity A = Y N Huo & Ríos-Rull Balance Sheet Recessions 13/34

14 Analysis We build an empirically informed quantitative economy. We report its properties in the steady state. and its properties in the aftermath of a financial shock. Huo & Ríos-Rull Balance Sheet Recessions 14/34

15 Functional forms: So consumption and productivity move together Preferences u(c s d) = 1 d (c 1+γ A ξ d 1 σ 1 + γ c A = [(1 ω)c η 1 η + ωs η 1 η ) 1 σ ] η η 1 Matching DT M(D T ) = (D µ + T µ ) 1 µ Ψ d (q) = (1 + q µ ) 1 µ Ψ f (q) = (1 + q µ ) 1 µ Huo & Ríos-Rull Balance Sheet Recessions 15/34

16 Wealth Lorenz curve Parameter Four types of agents: poor normal rich and super rich. 1.9 Model Data Huo & Ríos-Rull Balance Sheet Recessions 16/34

17 Steady state properties Rich agents go to expensive markets with short waiting lines. Poor agents go to cheap markets with long waiting lines Price Wealth Prob of finding services Wealth Huo & Ríos-Rull Balance Sheet Recessions 17/34

18 A Shock to the Borrowing Constraint The borrowing constraint is tightened unexpectedly but gradually. Agents cannot borrow any more in the new steady state. Huo & Ríos-Rull Balance Sheet Recessions 18/34

19 Transition The borrowing constraint changes gradually Borrowing limit a Otherwise some agents may have to default on their debts. Huo & Ríos-Rull Balance Sheet Recessions 19/34

20 The Economy After the Shock We now look at the evolution of aggregate variables after the financial shock. It requires to solve for the equilibrium values of ζ t along the transition. Huo & Ríos-Rull Balance Sheet Recessions 2/34

21 Transition: aggregate Output Services Labor Productivity Huo & Ríos-Rull Balance Sheet Recessions 21/34

22 Transition: aggregate Average price Price dispersion Wealth Numeraire consumption Huo & Ríos-Rull Balance Sheet Recessions 22/34

23 Transition: cross-section Type 1 Type 2 Type 3 Type Type 1 Type 2 Type 3 Type Goods finding probability Search efforts Type 1 Type 2 Type 3 Type Type 1 Type 2 Type 3 Type Services Numeraire consumption Huo & Ríos-Rull Balance Sheet Recessions 23/34

24 Properties of the Recession Total Services decline. Aggregate savings increases. Realignment of consumption Poor agents reduce both both types of consumption and switch to worse markets (with longer lines). But the richest agents increase consumption of services and switch to better markets (with shorter lines). Average price of services declines but price dispersion increases. Huo & Ríos-Rull Balance Sheet Recessions 24/34

25 Why the Recession is small Insufficient people in real trouble (borrowers). Those in trouble do not matter much (they are poor). A Larger recession requires more people in trouble and the trouble to be larger: Housing Huo & Ríos-Rull Balance Sheet Recessions 25/34

26 An Economy with housing Huo & Ríos-Rull Balance Sheet Recessions 26/34

27 Housing sector Decreasing returns to scale in housing construction. A reduction in demand for housing cuts construction Reduces the price of existing houses: Capital loses. Huo & Ríos-Rull Balance Sheet Recessions 27/34

28 Agents problem Utility function subject to V (y a) = max a csd hpqb u(c s d h) + β s Π ss V (y a ) p s + c + p h h + b a + ζy s + y c + π s = d Ψ b (q) ζ p Ψ s (q) a = p h h (1 δ h ) + (1 + r)b b λ p h h. Huo & Ríos-Rull Balance Sheet Recessions 28/34

29 A Shock to the Collateral Constraint The collateral constraint is tightened unexpectedly and gradually. The size of the shock in the housing economy has to be comparable with the shock to the baseline economy: Same consumption reduction of poorest quintile. Huo & Ríos-Rull Balance Sheet Recessions 29/34

30 Transition: aggregate Baseline model Housing model Output 2.5 Baseline model Housing model Wealth Baseline model Baseline model Housing model Housing model Labor Productivity Huo & Ríos-Rull Balance Sheet Recessions 3/34

31 Transition: aggregate Baseline model Housing model Average price Baseline model Housing model Price dispersion Baseline model Baseline model Housing model Housing model Service Numeraire consumption Huo & Ríos-Rull Balance Sheet Recessions 31/34

32 Transition: aggregate Cross Section Housing price Housing investment Huo & Ríos-Rull Balance Sheet Recessions 32/34

33 Properties of the Recession The magnitude of the recession is much larger. Aggregate wealth declines initially: capital loss. Larger fraction of agents are affected: more agents are leveraged. Huo & Ríos-Rull Balance Sheet Recessions 33/34

34 Conclusion 1 In standard models financial distress generates an expansion. 2 We build a model with goods market frictions where financial distress can generate a recession. 3 Our model provides a framework to understand price dispersion in business cycles. 4 When housing is added the magnitude of the recession is much larger. Huo & Ríos-Rull Balance Sheet Recessions 34/34

35 Numerical example: parameter Parameter Value Risk aversion σ 2. Return to storage (anual) r 4% Elasticity of substitution between tradables and nontradables η.83 Frisch Elasticity of Substitution of Search Effort 1/γ.6 Fixed labor to keep a location open ɛ.59 Huo & Ríos-Rull Balance Sheet Recessions 35/34

36 Numerical example: parameter Parameter Value Target Value Model β.96 Wealth to output ratio a.12 Fraction of negative wealth µ 2.98 Services occupation ratio ξ d.4 St.d of price dispersion.1.9 ω.89 Services to output ratio α.2 Numeraire endowments to output y s Wealth held by top 1%.7.7 y s1.155 Total number of locations T s Π 14.1 Income Gini index Π 41.7 Wealth Gini index Π Persistence ρ s Π St.d of innovation σ s.2.2 Huo & Ríos-Rull Balance Sheet Recessions 36/34

37 Numerical example: parameter Return Transition matrix ɛ 1 ɛ 2 ɛ 3 ɛ 4 ɛ ɛ ɛ ɛ Skill Value Huo & Ríos-Rull Balance Sheet Recessions 37/34

38 Utility function Return Separable between consumption and housing. As households become richer they do not want to hold many houses. u(c s d h) = { ( 1 1 σ ( 1 1 σ ) 1 σ d c A ξ 1+γ d 1+γ + ξ h h 1 σh 1 1 σ1 h if h < ĥ ) 1 σ d c A ξ 1+γ d 1+γ + ξ h (h + h) 1 σ2 h if h 1 σ ĥ h 2 Huo & Ríos-Rull Balance Sheet Recessions 38/34

39 Calibration Parameter Value Risk aversion σ 2. Curvature for Low Level of Housing σh 1 2. Curvature for High Level of Housing σh 2 1. Elasticity of substitution bw tradables and nontradables η.83 Return to storage r 4% Frisch Elasticity of Substitution of Search Effort 1/γ.6 Fixed labor to keep a location open ɛ.59 Collateral requirement λ.85 Elasticity of housing price w.r.t investment ϕ.3 Huo & Ríos-Rull Balance Sheet Recessions 39/34

40 Housing parameters: Return Parameter Value Target Value Model β.96 Wealth to output ratio ξ h.64 Housing value to output ratio µ 2.98 Average occupation ratio ξ d.4 St.d of price dispersion.1.9 α.18 Numeraire endowments to output ω.89 Services to output ratio.67.7 ĥ 1.85 Housing held by top 1% h -.71 u h is continuous at ĥ δ h.6 Investment to output ratio.4.4 z h.5 Housing stock Huo & Ríos-Rull Balance Sheet Recessions 4/34

41 Transition: cross-section Return Type 1 Type 2 Type 3 Type Type 1 Type 2 Type 3 Type Goods finding probability Search efforts Type 1 Type 2 Type 3 Type Type 1 Type 2 Type 3 Type Services Numeraire goods Huo & Ríos-Rull Balance Sheet Recessions 41/34

42 Transition: cross-section Type 1 Type 2 Type 3 Type Type 1 Type 2 Type 3 Type Housing Debt Huo & Ríos-Rull Balance Sheet Recessions 42/34