Company Focus. Polyplex (Thailand) Thailand. FV Bt3.04 SET: (Downgrade from Buy)
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- Aubrie Black
- 5 years ago
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1 Thailand DBS Group Research. Equity FV Bt3.04 SET: (Downgrade from Buy) Price Target : 1-year Bt3.00 (prev. Bt5.82) Reason for Report : Company visit ANALYST Vichitr Kuladejkhuna, CFA 66 (0) vichitrk@th.dbsvickers.com FORECASTS AND VALUATION FY Mar (Btm) 2004A 2005A 2006A 2007F Turnover 3,263 3,300 4,322 4,581 EBITDA Net Profit Normalized Profit EPS (Bt) EPS Gth (%) 45.4 (22.2) (38.8) 0.8 P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) DPS(Bt) Div Yield (%) ROE (%) Net Gearing (%) cash Book Value (Bt) P/Book Value (x) SHARE PRICE CHART Bt Day MA 2.50 Aug-05 Oct-05 Dec-05 Feb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06 Aug-06 AT A GLANCE Issued Capital (m shrs) 800 Market Capital (Btm/US$m) 2,432/ 64 Major Shareholders (%) Polyplex (Asia) Pte. Ltd Polyplex Corp. Ltd Free Float (%) 30.0 Avg Daily Volume ('000 shrs) 2,029 Earnings Rev : FY07: -49% Consenus EPS: FY06: Bt1.02 ; FY07:Bt0.95 Variance vs Cons: FY06: -57.9% ; FY07: -17.7% Sector: Packaging Bloomberg/Reuters Code: PTL TB / PTL.BK Principal Business : Manufactures BOPET film for the packaging industry. 3 August 2006 Weak prospects! PTL reported disappointing 1QFY07 net profit (ending Jun 2006) of Bt31m, tumbling 84% y-o-y and 58% q-o-q. Despite 49% y-o-y higher sales volume led by its new Turkey plant, the sharp drop reflected the severe contraction in product margins.! Prospects for subsequent quarters weak. The current oversupply of PET film could limit price hikes, while PTA (major raw material) price should increase as PX (paraxylene, raw material for PTA) spot price has reached a record high of US$1,400/ton in late Jul As a result, we expect earnings to remain weak at least until end 2006.! Downgrade to Fully Valued. Following weak 4QFY06 (ending Mar 2006) results, we expected margins had bottomed out and FY07 earnings to be supported by additional sales volume from the new Turkey plant. However, 1QFY07 net profit only accounted for 5% of our previous FY07 forecast. Hence, to reflect the anticipated strong rise in raw material prices, particularly in 2QFY07 (ending Sep 2006), we cut our FY07 net profit forecast by 49% to Bt343m (EPS: Bt0.43), and subsequently downgraded our target price to Bt3.00, based on 7x 2007 PE. We also downgrade our recommendation to Fully Valued, and recommend to switch to ATC (Buy, TP: Bt33) as ATC is a beneficiary of strong aromatics prices. PET film oversupply may last throughout Global utilization rate of PET film (thin & thick film; thin film accounts for c.80%) started to tumble in 2004 to 82% from 88% in 2003 due to large capacity addition, mostly in Asia. Utilization fell further in 2005 to 75% with more additional supply. This was reflected in PTL s gross margin, which averaged 29.8% in FY05, and narrowed to 26.8% in FY06. The most notable drop was in 4QFY06, when gross margin dropped to 18.2% from 28.3% in 3Q06, which we thought had bottomed out. However, margin continued to drop further to 14.5% in 1QFY07 due mainly to rising raw material costs. In our discussion with PTL management, the company expects the oversupply situation to improve in But in the current market environment, we foresee limited opportunity for PET film producers to raise selling prices to fully capture the rising raw material costs. Unexpected rise in raw material prices. PTL s raw materials for producing PET film are PTA and MEG; PTA s raw material is paraxylene (PX). PX price has been strong since Jan-Mar 2006, which resulted in high PTA price that hit PTL s margins in 4QFY06. The continued rise in crude oil prices during Apr-Jun 2006 led to higher raw material costs. Together with rising electricity tariff and higher diesel cost, PTL s gross margin dropped further to 14.5%. PX price continued to rise to a record high in July on the back of rising crude oil prices and news of project delays relating to new PX supply in the Middle East. High crude oil prices, resilient PX demand, and delays in new supply should continue to support strong PX price in the near term, until the end of Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
2 What could trigger margin rebound? (i) Product prices: current selling prices are limited by oversupply. If product margins remain narrow, high-cost producers will be forced to reduce capacity or shut down. This should ease competition and allow the remaining producers to pass on higher costs to customers by gradually raising product prices. (ii) Costs: A sharp drop in crude oil prices should help to lower power and fuel expenses, and potentially lower raw material costs. However, we expect crude oil prices to remain at the current high levels until the end of In the short term, even if crude oil prices drop, we expect PX prices to remain strong, supported by resilient demand, and expected tight supply as a result of new supply delays in the Middle East. This would in turn sustain raw material price for PTL. Healthy balance sheet. As at 31 Jun 2006, PTL s net gearing was 41%, while Interest Coverage Ratio (EBITDA/Interest expense) was 4.4x for the quarter. We estimate that PTL s gross margin would have to drop to 8% (which is only remotely possible; FY04-06 average: 28.3%, 4Q06: 18.2%, 1Q07: 14.5%), before the company starts to face difficulty in servicing its debt. Generally, PTL s financial status is healthy. New volume from Turkey plant insufficient to offset falling margins. The new thin film plant in Turkey started operation in Dec Utilisation was ramped up to 75% and 90% in 4QFY06 and 1QFY07, respectively. The Metallizer machine was commissioned in Mar 2006, and has started production. Despite the 49% y-o-y increase in sales volume in 1Q07, sales revenue only grew 38% y-oy, implying 6% y-o-y drop in the average selling price. On the other hand, aggregate COGS and SG&A rose 74% y-o-y, which caused operating profit to drop 83% y-o-y. Expansion projects. PTL s current ongoing expansion projects include: (i) 45,500 t.p.a. PET resin (Turkey) capacity, expected to be completed by end 2006 and improve product margins; (ii) Extrusion Coating/Lamination project (Thailand) - PTL plans to install 2 separate extrusion coating lines in 2 phases with combined capacity of m sqm. Investment cost is estimated at US$5m per line. The first line should be completed in the next 6-12 months. The project should help PTL to diversify into more value added products. PTL indicated earlier that it was considering getting into thick film production with a production capacity of 20,000 t.p.a. at an estimated investment cost of US$40m. The project is currently suspended due to unfavorable market conditions. 2 of 5
3 Quarterly Results Summary FY Mar (Btm) 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 % chg % chg Ending 30-Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun-07 y-o-y q-o-q Total sales ,063 1,038 38% -2% Cost of sales (511) (503) (532) (870) (888) 74% 2% Gross profit % -22% SGA (85) (77) (109) (150) (124) 47% -17% Optg profit % -40% Other income % -40% FX gain (loss) 13 (4) % 197% EBIT % -27% Interest expenses (0) (3) (21) (1) (21) 4455% 1868% Profit before tax % -53% Income tax (5) (4) n.m. -21% Profit before minority interest % -55% Minority interest (2) n.m. -216% Net income % -58% Normalized profit % -71% Shares (m) % 0% Eps (Bt) % -58% Norm. EPS (Bt) % -71% EBITDA % -18% Gross Margin 32% 32% 28% 18% 14% SGA/Sales 11% 10% 15% 14% 12% Operating Margin 21% 22% 14% 4% 2% EBITDA margin 30% 29% 24% 12% 10% Net Margin 26% 24% 16% 7% 3% Source; Company, DBS Vickers 3 of 5
4 Summary Earnings Model (FY05-08) FY Mar (Btm) 2005A 2006A 2007F 2008F Total sales 3,263 3,300 4,322 4,581 Cost of sales (2,289) (2,416) (3,489) (3,482) Gross profit ,100 SGA (319) (421) (502) (527) Optg profit Other income EBIT Interest expenses (26) (26) (74) (43) Profit before tax Income tax - (5) (4) - Profit before minority interest Minority interest - 1 (2) - Net income Normalized profit Shares (m) EPS (Bt) Norm. EPS (Bt) EBITDA Gross Margin 30% 27% 19% 24% SGA/Sales 10% 13% 12% 12% Operating Margin 20% 14% 8% 13% EBITDA margin 26% 23% 14% 21% Net Margin 22% 17% 8% 14% Source; Company, DBS Vickers 4 of 5
5 ANALYST CERTIFICATION The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in part or in whole certifies that the views about the companies and their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views. The analyst also certifies that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly, or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. This document is published by DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co., Ltd. ("DBSVT"), a direct wholly-owned subsidiary of DBS Vickers Securities Holding Pte Ltd. The research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for general circulation. Any recommendation contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. DBSVT accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or further communication given in relation to this document. This document is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. DBS Vickers Securities Holdings Pte Ltd is a wholly-owned subsidiary of DBS Bank Ltd. DBS Bank Ltd along with its affiliates and/or persons associated with any of them may from time to time have interests in the securities mentioned in this document. DBSVT, DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd ( DBSVS ). DBS Bank Ltd and their associates, their directors, and/or employees may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking services for these companies. DBSVT, DBSVS, DBS Bank Ltd and/or other affiliates of DBS Vickers Securities (USA) Inc ("DBSVUSA"), a U.S.-registered brokerdealer, may beneficially own a total of 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of the subject company mentioned in this document. DBSVT, DBSVS, DBS Bank Ltd and/or other affiliates of DBSVUSA may, within the past 12 months, have received compensation and/or within the next 3 months seek to obtain compensation for investment banking services from the subject company. DBSVUSA does not have its own investment banking or research department, nor has it participated in any investment banking transaction as a manager or co-manager in the past twelve months. Any US persons wishing to obtain further information, including any clarification on disclosures in this disclaimer, or to effect a transaction in any security discussed in this document should contact DBSVUSA exclusively. DBS Vickers Securities (UK) Ltd is an authorised person in the meaning of the Financial Services and Markets Act and is regulated by The Financial Services Authority. Research distributed in the UK is intended only for institutional clients. DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) 989 Siam Tower, 9 th,14 th 15 th Rama1 Road, Pathumwan, Bangkok Thailand Tel. 66 (0) , Fax: 66 (0) Floor, 5 of 5
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