Forex, Bonds & Commodities
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1 Gold : Sell-Off Expected Forex, Bonds & Commodities Technical Outlook 2010 Third Quarter Enrico Chiabudini Pictet & Cie, Pictet Trading Room Strategy Route des Acacias, 60 - CH-1211 Geneva 73, Switzerland Tel: Please see important disclosure information at the end of this message.
2 Table of contents 1. Currencies p Bonds p Commodities p Energy p Grains p Industrials p Precious Metals p Soft Commodities p
3 Table of contents CURRENCIES <- Back to Menu 3
4 CURRENCIES : RETROSPECTIVE % RETURN USD INDEX EUR/USD USD/CHF USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CAD USD/BRL EUR/GBP EUR/JPY EUR/CHF 2010 YTD 10.48% % 4.08% -4.93% -7.57% 1.02% 3.45% -7.68% % % % 2.51% -3.13% 2.63% 10.81% % % -7.11% 5.13% -0.63% % -4.24% -5.72% % % 22.08% 30.03% 29.92% % -9.72% % 10.53% -6.97% -6.45% 1.32% % % 9.02% 3.51% 2.82% % 11.39% -7.19% 1.12% 13.69% 0.32% -8.52% -2.00% 12.65% 3.41% % % 15.18% 14.73% % -3.32% % -2.67% 0.43% 0.61% % 7.72% -8.23% -4.55% 7.46% -7.33% -8.14% 0.33% 2.84% -0.87% % 26.58% % -9.61% 10.82% % % 8.18% 8.33% 7.62% % 11.67% % -9.79% 10.79% -1.33% 53.21% 6.39% 6.34% -1.92% % -5.50% 3.07% 15.19% -2.78% 6.30% 18.49% -2.78% 8.88% -2.81% % -6.43% 1.25% 11.80% -7.54% 3.67% 8.40% 1.22% 4.44% -5.17% % % 15.78% -9.71% -2.20% -5.99% 48.90% % % -0.51% % 6.69% -6.02% % 8.09% 7.59% 8.30% 6.29% -8.21% 0.50% Since % 21.53% % % -7.61% % -7.45% 31.23% 4.97% % Since % 11.40% % % -9.26% % 49.36% 22.86% % % 4
5 CURRENCIES : Q OUTLOOK BLOOMBERG TICKER CURRENCIES CROSS Q3 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK USD INDEX DOLLAR INDEX Negative EUR Curncy EUR / USD Positive CHF Curncy USD / CHF Negative JPY Curncy USD / JPY Neutral GBP Curncy GBP / USD Positive CAD Curncy USD / CAD Positive BRL Curncy USD / BRL Neutral EURGBP Curncy EUR / GBP Neutral EURJPY Curncy EUR / JPY Neutral EURCHF Curncy EUR / CHF Neutral 5
6 DOLLAR INDEX Current Level : Targets : & Major Resistance : The recent two supports combined by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and the 50days SMA warns for a strong sell off to come. Unfortunately, the stochastic oscillator is confirming this negative scenario. The targets hold at & = targets Very bad Stochastic oscillator 6
7 EUR/USD Current Level : Target : Major Supports : & There are many buying signals on the EUR vs the USD. First of all, the support stood firm as despite a test in May, the price closed well above it at the end of that month. Interesting to not also that the close of May was also above the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Moreover, the candlestick of May represented a hammer which is a bullish pattern itself. Lat but not least, the May s close represents a buying signal regarding the Bollinger bands. In conclusion, the EUR looks mature for a rally. This one should reach at least = target 7
8 USD/CHF Current Level : Target : Major Resistance : = target Very bad Stochastic oscillator 8
9 USD/JPY N Current Level : Major Resistance : Major Support :
10 GBP/USD Current Level : Targets : , & Major Support: = targets Strong stochastic oscillator 10
11 USD/CAD Current Level : Target : Major Support: = target 11
12 USD/BRL N Current Level : Major Resistance : Major Support:
13 EUR/GBP N Current Level : Major Resistance : Major Support : The nice end of June s close should be supportive for the EUR vs the GBP. However, due to the very bad stochastic oscillator, one should not hesitate to short the EUR again if a monthly close below the occurs. Very bad stochastic oscillator 13
14 EUR/JPY N Current Level : Major Resistance : Major Support :
15 EUR/CHF N Current Level : Major Resistance : Major Support : What to say about EUR/CHF Technically in a no man s land a rebound until is not excluded. However, the still very bad stochastic oscillator would suggest to go short again if a monthly close below occurs. Very bad stochastic oscillator 15
16 Table of contents BONDS <- Back to Menu 16
17 BONDS : RETROSPECTIVE % RETURN T-NOTE BUND JGB 2010 YTD 6.15% 6.77% 1.40% % -2.92% -0.30% % 10.37% 2.42% % -2.52% 2.06% % -4.77% -2.40% % 2.74% -0.81% % 4.84% 0.37% % -0.37% -2.96% % 6.32% 2.78% % -1.53% 2.46% % 4.14% 1.57% % % 3.84% % 10.97% -1.46% Since % 24.25% 6.66% Since % 24.02% 9.14% 17
18 BONDS : Q OUTLOOK BLOOMBERG TICKER Q3 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK TY1 COMDTY 10 YEAR US T-NOTE Positive RX1 COMDTY 10 YEAR GERMAN BUND Positive JB1 COMDTY 10 YEAR JAP. GOV. BOND Positive 18
19 10 YEAR US T-NOTE Current Level : Target : Major Support : Since its resistance s breakout, the T-Note should continue to rally, helped by a very strong stochastic oscillator. The target of the T-Note holds at Very strong stochastic oscillator = target 19
20 10 YEAR GERMAN BUND Current Level : Targets : & Major Support : Since the recent and resistances breakout and driven by a positive stochastic oscillator, the Bund should continue its rise until at least Only a monthly close below would cancel this scenario. Positive stochastic = targets 20
21 10 YEAR JAP. GOV. BOND Current Level : Target : Major Supports : Unless a monthly close occurs, the JGB looks ready for another bullish leg until = target 21
22 Table of contents COMMODITIES 22
23 COMMODITIES : Q OUTLOOK BLOOM. TICKER COMMO. NAME Q3 TECHN. OUTLOOK BLOOM. TICKER COMMO. NAME Q3 TECHN. OUTLOOK CRY INDEX CRB INDEX Negative GC1 COMDTY GOLD Negative CL1 COMDTY CRUDE OIL Negative PA1 COMDTY PALLADIUM Negative HO1 COMDTY HEATING OIL Negative PL1 COMDTY PLATINUM Negative NG1 COMDTY NATURAL GAS Neutral SI1 COMDTY SILVER Negative XB1 COMDTY GASOLINE Negative CC1 COMDTY COCOA Neutral C 1 COMDTY CORN Positive KC1 COMDTY COFFEE Neutral O 1 COMDTY OATS Neutral CT1 COMDTY COTTON Negative S 1 COMDTY SOYBEAN Neutral JO1 COMDTY ORANGE JUICE Positive W 1 CMDTY WHEAT Neutral RR1 COMDTY ROUGH RICE Negative LA1 COMDTY ALLUMINIUM Negative SB1 COMDTY SUGAR Negative HG1 COMDTY COPPER (COMEX) Negative LL1 COMDTY LEAD (LME) Neutral LN1 COMDTY NICKEL (LME) Neutral LX1 COMDTY ZINC (LME) Negative 23
24 Table of contents 1. CRB INDEX 24
25 CRB INDEX Current Level : Targets : & Major Resistance : Between middle of last year and the beginning of 2010, the JGB built a diamond pattern which broke in the downside. Of course a sell-off already occurred but the target hasn t been achieved yet. We believe another bearish leg will occur until at least = targets 25
26 Table of contents 2. ENERGY 26
27 ENERGY GROUP : RETROSPECTIVE % RETURN CRUDE OIL HEATING OIL NATURAL GAS GASOLINE 2010 YTD -4.70% -6.47% % 0.39% % 50.73% -0.89% % % % % % % 65.49% 18.80% 54.93% % -7.53% % -8.16% % 40.52% 82.55% n.a % 34.73% -0.65% n.a % 5.45% 29.23% n.a % 57.16% 86.34% n.a % % % n.a % 31.33% % n.a % % 19.74% n.a % % % n.a. Since % % 98.20% Unavailable Since % % % Unavailable 27
28 CRUDE OIL Current Level : Target : 66.1 Major Resistance : 78.6 After having tried without success to break its resistance, the Crude Oil went down again. We believe the price will reach soon. = target 28
29 HEATING OIL Current Level : Target : Major Resistance : = target 29
30 NATURAL GAS N Current Level : Major Resistance : Major Support :
31 GASOLINE Current Level : Target : Major Resistance : = target 31
32 Table of contents 3. GRAINS 32
33 GRAINS : RETROSPECTIVE % RETURN CORN OATS SOYABEAN WHEAT 2010 YTD % -7.94% -8.78% % % 31.90% 6.94% % % % % % % 13.19% 75.42% 76.65% % 38.97% 13.54% 47.57% % 24.80% 9.90% 10.33% % 6.84% % % % % 38.54% 16.00% % 3.07% 35.27% 12.46% % 71.33% % 3.40% % 4.58% 8.18% 12.47% % 3.55% % % % % % % Since % % 89.89% 87.02% Since % 70.28% 41.46% 42.67% 33
34 CORN Current Level : Targets : & Major Support : = targets 34
35 OATS N Current Level : Major Resistance : Major Support :
36 SOYBEAN N Current Level : Major Resistance : Major Support :
37 WHEAT N Current Level : Major Resistance : Major Support :
38 Table of contents 4. INDUSTRIALS 38
39 INDUSTRIAL : RETROSPECTIVE % RETURN ALLUMINIUM COPPER LEAD NICKEL ZINC 2010 YTD % % % 6.64% % % % % 58.80% % % % % % % % 6.18% 50.72% % % % 32.04% 57.88% % % % 45.36% 4.08% % 52.71% % 42.57% 40.04% % 23.56% % 49.64% 71.85% % 33.25% % 6.74% % 25.53% -2.36% % % 10.81% % % % -0.70% -6.26% % % % 28.49% -1.12% % 34.29% % % % % % Since % % % % 42.79% Since % % % % 61.58% 39
40 ALUMINIUM Current Level : Target : Major Resistance : Aluminum shows a very bad picture. Pushed by a negative stochastic, and after having tried without success to break its 50days SMA resistance, the price should go down again and reach = target Negative stochastic 40
41 COPPER (Comex) Current Level : Target : Major Resistance : = target 41
42 LEAD (LME) N Current Level : Major Resistance : Major Support :
43 NICKEL (LME) N Current Level : Major Resistance : Major Supports : &
44 ZINC (LME) Current Level : Target : Major Resistance : Zinc shows the worst chart of the industrials. Ok the diamond target has been achieved but we believe the price still under pressure and should be a realizable target. = target 44
45 Table of contents 5. PRECIOUS METALS 45
46 PRECIOUS METALS : RETROSPECTIVE % RETURN GOLD PALLADIUM PLATINUM SILVER 2010 YTD 13.66% 9.12% 4.86% 10.99% % % 55.95% 49.26% % % % % % 11.73% 34.15% 15.44% % 29.45% 17.09% 45.33% % 41.16% 12.65% 29.57% % -6.20% 6.46% 14.35% % % 34.23% 24.00% % % 22.60% 4.85% % % % -0.13% % % 41.70% % % 35.24% 18.02% 8.52% % 63.50% -1.75% % Since % -1.07% % % Since % % % % 46
47 GOLD Current Level : Target : Major Resistance : = target The last quarter of 2009 we showed that Gold had built an Inverted Head and Shoulder, giving an upside potential until At that time, the level was 995. Since, the price considerably appreciated despite the fact that our target hasn t been achieved yet. However, we have to admit that the recent top at , followed by the recent consolidation, and especially the strong negative divergence that appeared on the RSI warn us for a potential strong sell-off. Then, we turn negative, with a target at On the other hand, only a weekly close above would cancel our negative view. 47
48 PALLADIUM Current Level : Targets : & Major Resistance : = targets 48
49 PLATINUM Current Level : Target : Major Resistance : = target 49
50 SILVER Current Level : 17.7 Target : Major Resistance : 19.8 = target 50
51 Table of contents 6. SOFT COMMODITIES 51
52 SOFT COMMODITIES : RETROSPECTIVE % RETURN COCOA COFFEE COTTON ORANGE JUICE ROUGH RICE SUGAR 2010 YTD % 20.78% 9.26% 19.56% % % % 21.33% 54.22% 80.89% -5.05% % % % % % 13.21% 9.15% % 7.92% 21.20% % 33.76% -7.91% % 17.83% 3.69% 60.74% 27.66% % % 3.23% 21.04% 45.41% 10.52% 62.39% % 59.74% % 41.72% % 59.44% % 7.89% 46.74% % % % % 30.30% 43.75% 2.97% 4.34% 2.98% % % % 19.44% % % % % 22.74% % 15.18% 66.67% % 6.92% % % % % % % % 27.25% % % Since % 30.42% 62.79% 66.67% 83.46% % Since % 1.08% 23.15% 85.31% % 47.55% 52
53 COCOA N Current Level : Major Resistance : Major Support :
54 COFFEE N Current Level : Major Resistance : Major Support :
55 COTTON Current Level : Targets : 78.3 & 76.5 Major Resistance : 85.7 = targets 55
56 ORANGE JUICE Current Level : Targets : & Major Support : = targets 56
57 ROUGH RICE Current Level : Target : Major Resistance : = target 57
58 SUGAR Current Level : 16.7 Target : Major Resistance : = target 58
59 DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMER This report is based on Technical Analysis. In researching the past market history of prices and trading volumes, the analysts mentioned above apply special technical methods and formulas to identify and project price trends. This report does not constitute the investment policy of Pictet & Cie or an investment recommendation, but merely the different assumptions, views and analytical methods of the analysts mentioned who prepared it. Analysts holdings and compensation: Analysts are prevented from holding any securities of individual companies covered in their reports. No part of the compensation of the analysts were, is or will be directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in this research report. Analysts are paid a salary plus bonus based on the overall revenue generated by Pictet & Cie, a portion of which is generated by the trading department. In addition, said analysts have not received compensation from any covered company in the last 12 months. For the companies mentioned in this report: a) Pictet & Cie and/or its employees not involved in the preparation of this report may have long/short position or holdings in the securities or other related investments. b) Neither the analysts responsible for this report nor any related household members are officers, directors, advisory board members of any covered company. Pictet & Cie and its analysts adhere to professional standards and abide by formal code of ethics that put interests of clients ahead of their own. Their compliance officers monitor adherence to these standards. Pictet & Cie or any of its affiliates did not, for any company mentioned in this report: a) Manage or co-manage a public offering in the past 12 months. b) Receive any compensation for investment banking services in the past 12 months. c) Do not expect to receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services in the next three months. d) Participate in any issues of securities in the last 3 years. As of the end of the last calendar quarter before the date of this report, Pictet & Cie or any of its affiliates did not, for any company mentioned in this report: a) Beneficially own 1% or more of a class of common equity securities b) Beneficially own a net long or short position of US$1Million or more of the debt securities of covered companies Pictet & Cie and its affiliates provide a vast array of financial services other than investment banking services to a large number of corporations globally. 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