ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis Largest monthly inflows into Robotics ETPs since creation

Transcription

1 Morgane Delledonne Fixed Income Strategist 13 January 217 ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis Largest monthly inflows into Robotics ETPs since creation Robotics ETP saw US$52m of inflows since the beginning of the month, the largest monthly inflows since its creation. Energy ETPs outflows suggest investors are taking profits. Cocoa prices have reached a multi-year low, becoming appealing for technical buyers. We saw US$5.6m of inflows last week. Weekly Flows by Sector (US$mn) TOTAL Diversified Energy Industrial Metals Precious Metals Agriculture Livestock Equities Bonds FX Top 5 Inflows/Outflows (US$mn) Global Equity Gold Platinum Cocoa Industrial metals USD -4.2 Europe Bond -4.3 Precious metals -1.2 Energy -1.8 Crude oil Top 5 / Bottom 5 Performers Copper Wheat Zinc Palladium Nickel Tin Live Cattle Carbon Sugar Cocoa -2% -1% % 1% 2% So urce: ETF Securities No te: s ee next page (*) % -2.2% -2.3% -3.1 % -6.3% 5.8% 4.6% 4.6% 4.5% 4.2% Thematic equities such as Robotics and cyber security saw US$27.3m inflows last week. Robotics remain in favour, with inflows year-to-date totalling US$81m from which US$52m of inflows month-to-date. Energy ETPs saw US$23.3m flows withdrawal last week as investors took profits. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday that oil supplies fell by around 1.5m barrels per day (bpd) last month, including by 1m bpd reduction from OPEC. The OPEC cut compliance of 9% of pledged oil output curbs in January. However, the massive increase in US crude oil imports (to a four and a half year high) and the trend increase in rig count in the US partly offset the reduction in oil supply, suggesting energy prices overextended recently. Investors took profits as there is a limited upward potential in prices over the medium term. Inflows into gold ETPs continue as price returns to November 216 levels. We saw US$8.2m inflows into gold ETPs as the price of gold briefly touched US$124/oz (up from US$122/oz the week before). The 1bps decline on 1yr US Treasuries yields at the beginning of last week supported gold. We believe that the high degree of geopolitical uncertainty will limit downward pressures on gold prices. Strong inflows in cocoa of US$6.4m last week suggest tactical buying as price fell to a five-year low. The 6.3% price decline last week brought cocoa price to a five-year low at US$2338/ton. This price drop reflects a correction after a largerthan-expected production while the threat of the Harmattan (a dry and dusty wind) - initially expected to disrupt 5% of global production - did not materialise. We believe the current multi-year low in cocoa s price is perceived as a buying signal by contrarian investors. European corporate bonds ETFs saw US$4.3m outflows. We believe the ECB s decision to reduce the amount of monthly bonds purchase by EUR2bn after April coupled with the highly uncertain outcomes from the upcoming presidential elections have weighed on investor interest in European corporate bonds. The French far-right Presidential candidate, Le Pen, who is currently in second place according to recent polls, has promised the return of the French franc, threatening a redenomination of EUR1.7bn of French debt into francs if she were elected with the potential to default. Note: All flow and AUM data in this report are based on ETF Securities ETP numbers to 1 February 217 and are denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated. Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

2 2 ETF Securities ETF Securities Commodity ETP Flow Trends ETP FLOWS (in US$m) ASSETS (in $m) TOTAL , ,18 Diversified ,188 PERFORMANCE (US$) Precious Metals , ,875 Basket % 4.1% 8.4% 1.1% Gold , , % 3.2% 5.9% -1.3% Silver ,49 2.% 5.1% 8.4% 12.1% Platinum % 2.2% 9.4% 3.3% Palladium % 4.7% 15.5% 47.8% Energy ,787 Basket % -2.6% -6.6% 28.7% Crude oil , % 1.2% -1.5% 43.3% Natural Gas % -1.1% -17.2% 8.3% Heating Oil %.2% -4.2% 37.% Gasoline % -3.7% -6.6% 25.3% Carbon % 1.2% -21.7% -6.8% Industrial Metals Basket % 3.1% 1.2% 35.4% Aluminium % 3.2% 1.1% 21.1% Copper % 2.8% 1.4% 33.2% Nickel % 1.8% 6.1% 32.9% Zinc % 4.7% 13.4% 67.3% Tin % -8.1% -8.% 26.8% Lead % 4.1% 19.2% 26.8% Agriculture Basket % 1.9% 6.2% 1.8% Wheat % 5.7% 1.3% -14.9% Corn % 4.4% 6.3% -5.% Soybeans % 1.2% 5.4% 18.8% Cotton % 5.% 7.4% 28.% Coffee % -2.4% 6.3% 14.% Sugar % -.4% 4.8% 47.3% Soybean Oil % -2.8% -.2% 2.6% Cocoa % -12.3% -8.7% -31.8% Livestock Basket % -2.% -1.% -6.5% Lean Hogs % 2.% 1.% -1.% Live Cattle % -4.1% -1.9% -4.% Equities Global % 1.4% 3.8% 25.% US % 1.6% 3.3% 26.4% Europe % -.1% 1.1% 18.7% Asia % 2.7% 3.2% 9.3% Australia % -.1%.9% 24.9% Bonds Global %.%.9%.8% Europe % -.5% -1.% 1.% Emerging Markets % 1.7% 2.7% 12.5% FX G USD % -.3% -1.4% 5.1% CAD % -.2% 2.3% 6.8% EUR % -1.% -.6% -2.% GBP % 2.%.5% -11.2% CHF %.2%.5% 2.7% NOK % 1.3% 1.9% 9.3% SEK % -.6%.5% -.8% JPY % 1.4% 2.8% 2.1% CNY % -.3% -.7% -2.7% INR % 1.2%.2% 5.2% AUD %.7% 3.6% 9.7% NZD %.1%.9% 8.1% Commodity FX (*) All data as at 1 Feb 17, based on ETF Securities global commodity ETP flows and assets. In FX due to being pair trades there is double counting. Price performance is based on NAV data for commodities, indices for Bonds & Equities, Trade weighted indices for FX, Bloomberg

3 3 ETF Securities Net Cumulative Flows by Asset Classes over the past year Com modities 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Feb 16 May 16 Aug 16 Nov 16 Feb Bonds -5 Feb 16 May 16 Aug 16 Nov 16 Feb 17 Equities Feb 16 May 16 Aug 16 Nov 16 Feb 17 Currencies Feb 16 May 16 Aug 16 Nov 16 Feb 17 All Commodity ETPs Flows Analysis DIVERSIFIED Diversified All Commodities Ex-Energy Ex-Agriculture and Livestock Past Month Flows in Diversified ETPs DIVERSIFIED All Commodities $81.9 $71.5 Ex-Energy Ex-Agriculture and Livestock $1.4 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 Net Cumulative Flows into Diversified Commodities % % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% All Commodities

4 4 ETF Securities Energy ETPs Flows Analysis ENERGY Energy Energy Basket Crude oil Natural Gas Heating Oil Gasoline Carbon Past Month Flows Trends in Energy ETPs ENERGY -$2.7 -$23.5 Energy Basket -$1.7 Crude oil -$1. -$13.4 Natural Gas -$1.8 -$.8 Heating Oil Gasoline -$.3 $.8 $.6 Carbon $.3 5, Net Cumulative Flows into Energy 2-1% -5% % 5% 1% 4,5 4, 15 3,5 3, 1 5 Basket 2,5 2, 1, Precious Metals ETPs Flows Analysis PRECIOUS METALS Precious Metals ,936.8 Precious Metals Basket Gold ,627.3 Silver Platinum Palladium Past Month Flows in Precious Metals ETPs PRECIOUS METALS Precious Metals Basket -$4. -$6.3 Gold $34.2 Silver $.6 $.4 $2.4 Platinum $.3 Palladium -$32.8 Net Cumulative Flows into Precious Metals 16, 15, 14, 13, 12, 11, 1, 9, 8, % -5% % 5% 1% Basket 5-5

5 5 ETF Securities Industrial Metals ETPs Flows Analysis INDUSTRIAL METALS Industrial Metals Industrial Metals Basket Aluminium Copper Nickel Zinc Tin Lead Past Month Flows in Industrial Metals ETPs INDUSTRIAL METALS Industrial Metals Basket Aluminium Copper Nickel Zinc $35.8 -$.2 $34.2 $3.5 -$1. -$1. $1.1 -$.8 $1.2 $.6 $.3 Tin -$.6 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 1, Net Cumulative Flows into Industrial Metals % -5% % 5% 1% 2 Basket Agriculture ETPs Flows Analysis AGRICULTURE Agriculture Agriculture Basket Wheat Corn Soybeans Cotton Coffee Sugar Soybean Oil Cocoa Net Cumulative Flows into Agriculture 1,5 1,3 1, Past Month Flows in Agricultural ETPs AGRICULTURE $22.3 $2.4 Agriculture Basket $4.2 $.1 Wheat -$.1 $.5 Corn $.7 $.1 Soybeans Cotton Coffee -$1.9 -$.4 -$1.1 $.1 $.3 Sugar $1.5 $1.2 Soybean Oil -$.1 $.1 Cocoa $19.4-1% -5% % 5% 1% 4 35 Cocoa Jan 16 Mar 16 May 16 Jul 16 Sep 16 Nov 16 Jan 17

6 6 ETF Securities Livestock ETPs Flows Analysis LIVESTOCK Livestock Livestock Basket Lean Hogs Live Cattle Past Month Flows in Livestock ETPs LIVESTOCK -$.3 Livestock Basket Lean Hogs -$.1 Live Cattle Net Cumulative Flows into Livestock % -8% -6% -4% -2% % Basket Jan 16 Mar 16 May 16 Jul 16 Sep 16 Nov 16 Jan 17 Equity ETPs Flows Analysis EQUITIES Region Global US Europe Asia Australia Style Large Cap Small Cap MLP Gold Miners Robo Cyber Past Month Flows in Equity ETPs EQUITIES $23.1 $22.8 Global US $35.9 $4.4 Europe Asia -$17.3 $22.8 Australia $.1-5% % 5% 1% Net Cumulative Flows into Equities 1,2 1,1 1, Robo Jan 16 Mar 16 May 16 Jul 16 Sep 16 Nov 16 Jan 17

7 7 ETF Securities Bond ETPs Flows Analysis BONDS Bonds Global Europe Emerging Markets Government Corporate Past Month Flows in Bond ETPs BONDS $18.7 Global Europe Emerging Markets $22.8-1% -5% % 5% 1% Net Cumulative Flows into Bonds Emerging Markets Currency ETPs Flows Analysis CURRENCIES FX G USD CAD EUR GBP CHF NOK SEK JPY CNY INR.... AUD NZD Commodity FX n.b. Due to each currency being a pair, there is double counting in the flow data Net Cumulative Flows into Currencies G1 USD CAD EUR GBP CHF NOK SEK JPY CNY INR AUD NZD Commodity FX Past Month Flows in Currency ETPs -$7.3 -$.7 -$15.5 -$9.7 -$6.3 -$.1 -$2.7 $3.3 $.1 $.1 $2.5 $.1 $1.9 $.3 $1. -1% -5% % 5% 1% USD -1.

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