BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX 2018 TARGET WEIGHTS
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1 BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX 2018 TARGET WEIGHTS
2 2018 SUMMARY 26 commodity contracts tested for inclusion No constituent changes (22 commodities constituents / 20 commodities) Energy reaches lowest weight in 17 years Gold remains largest single constituent Corn has largest weight drop 2
3 STEPS TO COMPUTE 2018 TARGET WEIGHTS Calculate ICIP Scores and Filter Commodities with Low ICIP Scores Apply Sector and Group Limits Target Weights 26 Commodities Brent Crude, Crude Oil, Gold, RBOB Gasoline, ULS Diesel (HO), Natural Gas, Soybeans, Copper, Corn, Live Cattle, Lean Hogs, Silver, Wheat (Chicago), Aluminum, Sugar, Soy Meal, Soybean Oil, Zinc, Nickel, Coffee, Cotton, Wheat (KC HRW),Lead, Cocoa, Platinum, Tin FIA Volume Data Lead Contract Prices Liquidity Percentages + World Production Data Lead Contract Prices Production Percentages Interim Commodity Index Percentiles (ICIP) (2/3 rd Liquidity and 1/3 rd Production) 22 Pass the 0.4% ICIP Threshold Brent Crude, Crude Oil, Gold, RBOB Gasoline, ULS Diesel (HO), Natural Gas, Soybeans, Copper, Corn, Live Cattle, Lean Hogs, Silver, Wheat (Chicago), Aluminum, Sugar, Soy Meal, Soybean Oil, Zinc, Nickel, Coffee, Cotton, Wheat (KC HRW) 4 Fail the 0.4% ICIP Threshold and are excluded Lead, Cocoa, Platinum, Tin Set Single commodity and its derivative to a max of 25% Set single commodity max limit of 15% Limit related commodity groups weights to a max of 33% Increase any Sector ICIP under 2% to 2% Set Gold & Silver Weights to equal their CLP Adjust for the Commodity Liquidity Threshold Commodity Target Weight Natural Gas 8.01% Brent Crude Oil 7.68% WTI Crude Oil 7.31% RBOB Gasoline 3.75% ULS Diesel 3.66% Corn 6.13% Soybeans 5.95% Wheat 3.25% Soybean Meal 3.03% Soybean Oil 2.74% HRW Wheat 1.30% Copper 7.15% Aluminum 4.50% Zinc 3.09% Nickel 2.76% Gold 11.94% Silver 3.67% Sugar 3.53% Coffee 2.60% Cotton 1.45% Live Cattle 4.31% Lean Hogs 2.07%
4 2018 BCOM TARGET WEIGHTS Energy Grains Industrial Metals Precious Metals Softs Livestock Target Weight Natural Gas 8.01% Brent Crude Oil 7.68% WTI Crude Oil 7.31% RBOB Gasoline 3.75% ULS Diesel 3.66% Corn 6.13% Soybeans 5.95% Wheat 3.25% Soybean Meal 3.03% Soybean Oil 2.74% HRW Wheat 1.30% Copper 7.15% Aluminum 4.50% Zinc 3.09% Nickel 2.76% Gold 11.94% Silver 3.67% Sugar 3.53% Coffee 2.60% Cotton 1.45% Live Cattle 4.31% Lean Hogs 2.07% 30.43% 22.44% 17.53% 15.62% 7.60% 6.39% 4
5 TARGET WEIGHT % CHANGES 2017 CIP 2018 CIP 14% 12% 6.93% 10% 8% 1.97% -1.81% 1.97% % -5.69% 6% 4% 2% -0.37% -4.29% 2.07% 4.62% -1.76% -2.11% 10.26% -1.30% 15.18% 8.69% 8.41% -0.86% % 4.08% 9.57% 0.41% 0% ENERGY (-0.14%) GRAINS (-1.02%) INDUSTRIAL (0.14%) LIVESTOCK (0.32%) PRECIOUS (0.32%) SOFTS (0.38%) 5
6 HISTORICAL GROUP WEIGHTS ( ) 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Energy 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Industrial Metals 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Precious Metals WTI Crude Oil Brent Crude Oil ULS Diesel RBOB Gasoline Natural Gas Copper (HG) Aluminum Nickel Zinc Gold Silver 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Grains 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Softs 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Livestock Soybean Oil Soybean Soybean Meal Corn Chicago Wheat Kansas City Wheat Cocoa Cotton Coffee Sugar Live Cattle Lean Hogs 6
7 HISTORICAL GROUP WEIGHTS ( ) 35% 30% Energy 25% 20% 15% Industrial Metals Grains 10% Softs 5% 0% Livestock
8 HISTORICAL SECTOR WEIGHTS ( ) 45% 40% Agriculture 35% Energy 30% Metals 25% 20%
9 LIQUIDITY & PRODUCTION PERCENTAGES Commodity Commodity Liquidity Percentage Commodity Production Percentage Interim Commodity Index Percentage (B) Filter by 0.4% Threshold Test Brent Crude % % % PASS Crude Oil % % % PASS Gold % % % PASS RBOB Gasoline % % % PASS ULS Diesel (HO) % % % PASS Natural Gas % % % PASS Soybeans % % % PASS Copper % % % PASS Corn % % % PASS Live Cattle % % % PASS Lean Hogs % % % PASS Silver % % % PASS Wheat (Chicago) % % % PASS Aluminum % % % PASS Sugar % % % PASS Soy Meal % % % PASS Soybean Oil % % % PASS Zinc % % % PASS Nickel % % % PASS Coffee % % % PASS Cotton % % % PASS Wheat (KC HRW) % % % PASS Lead % % % ELIMINATE Cocoa % % % ELIMINATE Platinum % % % ELIMINATE Tin % % % ELIMINATE 9
10 YEAR OVER YEAR TARGET WEIGHT COMPARISON Bloomberg Ticker 2017 CIP 2018 CIP YoY % Change Zinc LX % % 15.18% Wheat (KC HRW) KW % % 10.26% Coffee KC % % 9.57% Nickel LN % % 8.66% Live Cattle LC % % 8.40% Gold GC % % 6.93% Soy Meal SM % % 4.62% Sugar SB % % 4.08% Soybeans S % % 2.07% Crude Oil CL % % 1.97% Natural Gas NG % % 0.47% Cotton CT % % 0.41% RBOB Gasoline XB % % -0.37% Lean Hogs LH % % -0.86% Aluminum LA % % -1.30% Wheat (Chicago) W % % -1.76% Brent Crude CO % % -1.80% Soybean Oil BO % % -2.11% ULS Diesel (HO) HO % % -4.29% Copper HG % % -5.69% Silver SI % % % Corn C % % % 10
11 FIA VOLUME DATA Commodity % Change Wheat (KC HRW) 5,524,694 5,573,776 6,702,061 8,554,850 11,724, % Silver 14,205,014 13,762,940 13,478,008 15,909,264 20,852, % Natural Gas 88,511,266 76,091,668 79,436,041 86,182, ,913, % Crude Oil 143,254, ,980, ,811, ,504, ,643, % Gold 47,102,033 39,854,694 42,935,014 50,897,089 61,189, % Lean Hogs 11,262,642 11,262,642 10,359,707 8,695,761 10,364, % Live Cattle 13,138,069 13,138,069 12,225,270 13,295,761 15,607, % Platinum 3,295,753 3,086,177 3,400,401 3,837,044 4,454, % Brent Crude 153,358, ,909, ,084, ,223, ,085, % RBOB Gasoline 35,783,854 32,756,800 38,641,276 42,531,265 48,438, % Cocoa 6,520,572 6,302,342 6,939,220 9,285,990 10,447, % ULS Diesel (HO) 35,100,529 31,406,733 36,392,272 38,496,379 41,118, % Wheat (Chicago) 25,706,206 24,946,566 29,296,099 31,101,352 32,848, % Zinc 10,131,889 10,288,642 9,773,205 9,006,891 9,226, % Cotton 6,238,985 5,646,406 6,442,278 7,448,905 7,612, % Soybean Oil 25,740,648 22,994,772 26,432,802 29,476,283 29,770, % Coffee 7,000,207 6,997,195 7,318,193 9,374,943 9,263, % Nickel 4,184,284 5,635,819 6,311,085 6,705,340 6,579, % Corn 63,734,064 67,621,436 78,591,373 87,335,044 85,358, % Soy Meal 18,778,391 19,589,688 23,292,170 26,601,121 24,810, % Aluminum 21,030,581 21,391,002 20,809,585 18,557,538 17,022, % Copper 12,838,800 12,868,534 13,217,166 12,431,650 11,385, % Tin 675, , , , , % Lead 4,560,392 4,441,760 4,246,966 3,676,761 3,330, % Sugar 28,079,048 30,573,425 31,333,154 34,917,081 31,135, % Soybeans 46,386,935 47,518,704 53,581,666 62,495,645 53,446, % 11
12 AVERAGE LEAD FUTURES CONTRACT PRICE Commodity % Change * Zinc $ 1, $ 1, $ 2, $ 1, $ 2, % Natural Gas $ 3.59 $ 4.17 $ 3.27 $ 2.38 $ % Tin $ 21, $ 22, $ 18,595 $ 15, $ 20, % Sugar $ 0.19 $ 0.17 $ 0.14 $ 0.15 $ % Lead $ 2, $ 2, $ 1, $ 1, $ 2, % Cotton $ 0.79 $ 0.84 $ 0.63 $ 0.62 $ % Silver $ $ $ $ $ % Coffee $ 1.49 $ 1.44 $ 1.64 $ 1.23 $ % Aluminum $ 1, $ 1, $ 1, $ 1, $ 1, % Crude Oil $ $ $ $ $ % Brent Crude $ $ $ $ $ % Copper $ 7, $ 7, $ 6, $ 4, $ 5, % ULS Diesel (HO) $ 3 $ 2.99 $ 2.16 $ 1.37 $ % Soybean Oil $ 0.51 $ 0.41 $ 0.33 $ 0.30 $ % Nickel $ 16, $ 15, $ 15, $ 9, $ 10, % RBOB Gasoline $ 2.85 $ 2.81 $ 2.04 $ 1.42 $ % Gold $ 1, $ 1, $ 1, $ 1, $ 1, % Soybeans $ $ $ 9.95 $ 9.37 $ % Platinum $ 1, $ 1, $ 1, $ $ % Soy Meal $ $ $ $ $ % Corn $ 7.07 $ 4.56 $ 3.73 $ 3.73 $ % Wheat (KC HRW) $ 8.20 $ 7.09 $ 5.78 $ 4.68 $ % Lean Hogs $ 0.85 $ 1.02 $ 0.84 $ 0.70 $ % Wheat (Chicago) $ 7.81 $ 6.41 $ 5.31 $ 4.78 $ % Live Cattle $ 1.26 $ 1.36 $ 1.57 $ 1.31 $ % Cocoa $ 2, $ 2, $ 2, $ 3, $ 2, % 12 * Calculated using the settlement price on the first business day of each month
13 WORLD PRODUCTION DATA Commodity Reporting Unit % Change Tin Metric Tons 340, , , , , % Soybeans Thous. Met Tons 264, , , , , % Copper Thous. Met Tons 19,100 19,700 20,200 21,000 22, % Cotton Thous. Met Tons 23,591 26,355 26, ,804 26, % Aluminum Thous. Met Tons 41,800 46,800 49,200 51,900 54, % Silver Metric Tons 23,300 23,200 24,400 25,800 26, % Zinc Thous. Met Tons 12,800 13,100 12,600 13,000 13, % Gold Kilograms 2,600,000 2,670,000 2,750,000 2,920,000 3,010, % Crude Petroleum Thous. Barrels 32,222,187 32,411,761 33,135,033 33,322,204 34,241, % Wheat Thous. Met Tons 641, , , , , % Corn Thous. Met Tons 851, , ,151 1,014,274 1,037, % Natural Gas Billion Cubic Feet 34,187 35,696 36,168 36,706 37, % Pork Thous. Met Tons 107, , , , , % Sugar Thous. Met Tons 162, , , , , % Beef & Fresh Veal Thous. Met Tons 63,103 62,673 63,250 64,286 64, % Nickel Metric Tons 1,470,000 1,630,000 1,800,000 2,010,000 2,010, % Lead Thous. Met Tons 9,610 10,300 10,500 10,600 10, % Cocoa Thous. Met Tons 4,329 4,615 4,615 4,488 4, % Coffee Thous. Met Tons 8,484 8,397 8,823 8,891 8, % Platinum Kilograms 193, , , , , % 13
14 WORLD PRODUCTION DATA SOURCES Commodity Source Table Natural Gas U.S. EIA Annual Statistical Supplement Gross Natural Gas Production Crude Oil U.S. EIA Annual Statistical Supplement World Crude Oil Production Live Cattle FAOSTAT Cattle Meat Lean Hogs FAOSTAT Pig Meat Wheat FAOSTAT Wheat Production Corn FAOSTAT Maize Soybeans FAOSTAT Soybeans Aluminum Minerals Yearbook Aluminum Primary World Production Copper Minerals Yearbook Copper, World Refinery Production Zinc Minerals Yearbook Zinc World Smelter Production Nickel Minerals Yearbook Nickel World Plant Production Lead Minerals Yearbook Lead World Refinery Production Tin Minerals Yearbook Tin World Smelter Production Gold Minerals Yearbook World Mine Production Silver Minerals Yearbook World Mine Production Platinum Minerals Yearbook Platinum-Group Metals, World Production Sugar USDA Sugar and Sweeteners Yearbook World Production, Supply, and Distribution, Centrifugal Sugar Cotton FAOSTAT Cotton Lint Coffee FAOSTAT Coffee, Green Cocoa FAOSTAT Cocoa Beans 14
15 COMMODITY CONVERSION FACTORS Commodity Production Units Production Size Factor Contract Terms Conversion Factor Natural Gas Cubic Feet 35, mmbtu 1,000,000 Crude Petroleum Barrels 31,782, bbl 1 Beef & Fresh Veal Thous. Met Tons 63, lbs 3, Pork Thous. Met Tons 107, lbs 2, Wheat Thous. Met Tons 651, bu Corn Thous. Met Tons 849, bu Soybeans Thous. Met Tons 265, bu Aluminum Thous. Met Tons 40, mtons 1 Copper Thous. Met Tons 19, lbs 1 Zinc Thous. Met Tons 12, mtons 1 Nickel Metric Tons 1,470, mtons 1 Lead Thous. Met Tons 9, mtons 1 Tin Metric Tons 350, mtons 1 Gold Kilograms 2,560, oz Silver Metric Tons 23, oz 32, Platinum Kilograms 192, oz Sugar Thous. Met Tons 156, lbs 2, Cotton Thous. Met Tons 23, lbs 2, Coffee Thous. Met Tons 8, lbs 2, Cocoa Thous. Met Tons 4, tons 1 15
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