ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis Gold ETPs outflows after hawkish September FOMC minutes.
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1 Morgane Delledonne Associate Director Fixed Income Strategist 17 October 216 ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis Gold ETPs outflows after hawkish September FOMC minutes. Gold ETPs outflows after hawkish September FOMC minutes. Investors continue to sell short GBP and buy long GBP ETCs as GBP seems to be making a floor. Platinum ETPs recorded the largest inflows of US$22.8mn last week, as investors see price opportunity relative to Gold. Investors increased their short positions on UK and German stocks. Weekly Flows by Sector (US$mn) TOTAL Diversified Energy Industrial Metals Precious Metals Agriculture Livestock Equities Bonds FX Top 5 Inflows/Outflows (US$mn) Platinum Silver GBP Global Equity Agriculture Palladium USD Precious metals Crude oil Gold Top 5 / Bottom 5 Performers Wheat Cotton Coffee Corn Natural Gas Zinc Lead Platinum Palladium Live Cattle % -5% % 5% 1% So urce: ETF Securities No te: s ee next page (*) % -3.9% -4.3% -4.8% -5.4% 6.6% 5.3% 5.% 4.3% 3.5% Gold ETPs see outflows after three consecutive week of inflows, as the September FOMC minutes suggested rate hike was a close call. Gold ETPs recorded US$32.8mn withdrawn last week after 3 weeks of inflows, signalling that investors see increased prospects for higher US interest rates. Gold dipped below US$1,25 per troy ounce on Wednesday following the release of the FOMC minutes and under pressure from the strengthening of the US dollar. The minutes revealed several members said it would be appropriate to raise rates relatively soon. Following the minutes release, investors continued to see about 66% chance of a rate increase in December, based on prices in federal funds futures contracts. Typically, in the run up to a rate hike, gold prices remain weak although we believe the continued pursuance of a negative real interest rate by the US Federal Reserve coupled with political instability throughout 217 is likely to be supportive for gold in the longer term. Platinum recorded the largest inflows of US$22.8mn last week, suggesting the recent price weakness has been a buying opportunity for investors. Platinum fell for a third consecutive week entering a technical bear market last Friday amid prospects for higher U.S. interest rates and speculation according to Bloomberg that demand will slip for the metal used in auto pollution-control devices. We believe that very robust car sales figures reported for the US, the EU and China in the last two weeks coupled with increasingly tight emissions standards are likely to provide support in the longer term. Furthermore, platinum trades below marginal cost and has been in supply deficit for the last 4 years. positioning on UK equity ETPs increased by US$7.2mn, as UK stocks fell for two weeks in a row. Investors continue to increase their short positions in ETPs tracking short UK FTSE 1, in the wake of renewed fears of hard Brexit s negotiations. Year-to-date, we saw US$65.5mn inflows to ETPs tracking short UK equity exposure. In the meantime, investors increased their exposure to global equity ETPs led by thematic ETPs related to robotics (US$8.5mn). Investors continued to cut short GBP positions by US$14.1mn against the Euro as Sterling appears to have reached rock bottom. Currency ETCs tracking short GBP exposures recorded increasing outflows in the past two weeks. Meanwhile investors have increased their GBP positions by US$22.4mn. Key events to watch this week. The US presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump hold their final debate in Las Vegas, exactly two weeks away from election day. In Europe, the European Central Bank meets next Thursday to review monetary policy and stimulus programs. China will report on 3Q GDP as investors wait to see whether the economy has stabilized. Note: All flow and AUM data in this report are based on ETF Securities ETP numbers to 14 October 216 and are denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated. Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
2 2 ETF Securities ETF Securities Commodity ETP Flow Trends ETP FLOWS (in US$m) ASSETS (in $m) TOTAL , , ,324 Diversified ,39 PERFORMANCE (US$) Precious Metals , , ,586 Basket % -5.2% 18.8% 4.9% Gold ,178. 4,7.1 12,67 -.6% -4.4% 17.5% 5.6% Silver ,338.8% -7.6% 25.9% 8.4% Platinum % -7.8% 6.6% -7.8% Palladium % -2.2% 16.9% -9.1% Energy ,815 Basket % 11.6% 1.1% -15.3% Crude oil ,563.2% 12.5% 2.% -14.3% Natural Gas % 9.3% 6.5% -14.8% Heating Oil % 11.1% 24.4% -12.3% Gasoline % 7.6% -4.5% -11.6% Carbon % 31.1% -3.1% -34.7% Industrial Metals Basket % 1.9% 8.7% -2.5% Aluminium % 6.2% 7.8% 2.8% Copper % -2.3% -2.9% -14.3% Nickel % 7.6% 16.5% -3.5% Zinc % 1.6% 37.5% 21.7% Tin % 1.9% 34.4% 22.7% Lead % 2.8% 9.3% 8.1% Agriculture Basket % 2.4% 5.9% 2.% Wheat % 4.3% -18.9% -23.2% Corn % 5.1% -7.7% -14.2% Soybeans % -.4% 11.2% 6.% Cotton % 4.8% 1.4% 9.% Coffee % 4.7% 13.4% 1.7% Sugar % 1.9% 43.% 52.5% Soybean Oil % 6.6% 7.2% 13.% Cocoa % -3.1% -15.8% -13.7% Livestock Basket % -11.9% -24.7% -29.8% Lean Hogs % -15.5% -29.1% -37.9% Live Cattle % -9.9% -22.1% -24.9% Equities Global %.2% 4.8% 3.1% US % -.2% 6.2% 7.2% Europe %.9% -5.7% -6.2% Asia % 1.5% -15.4% -12.5% Australia % 2.3% 6.8% 8.6% Bonds Global % -.6% 6.8% 5.3% Europe % -.2% 4.9% 4.9% Emerging Markets %.9% 14.1% 8.7% FX G USD % 2.% -.6% 3.7% CAD %.2% 4.4% -2.4% EUR %.4% 3.2% 1.4% GBP % -6.% -18.6% -19.4% CHF %.7%.1% -.3% NOK % 3.1% 9.3% 3.7% SEK % -1.2% -4.% -2.9% JPY % -.2% 17.5% 18.5% CNY %.3% -4.6% -3.8% INR % 1.5%.2% 1.2% AUD % 2.4%.1% 2.3% NZD % -2.1% 2.7% 4.9% Commodity FX (*) All data as at 14 Oct 16, based on ETF Securities global commodity ETP flows and assets. In FX due to being pair trades there is double counting. Price performance is based on NAV data for commodities, indices for Bonds & Equities, Trade weighted indices for FX, Bloomberg
3 3 ETF Securities Net Cumulative Flows by Asset Classes over the past year Com modities 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16 Oct 16 Bonds Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16 Oct 16 Equities Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16 Oct 16 Currencies Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16 Oct 16 All Commodity ETPs Flows Analysis DIVERSIFIED Diversified All Commodities Ex-Energy Ex-Agriculture and Livestock Past Month Flows in Diversified ETPs DIVERSIFIED -$1.5 -$.1 All Commodities -$1.5 -$9.9 Ex-Energy $. Ex-Agriculture and Livestock $9.8 Net Cumulative Flows into Diversified 1,4 Commodities 1,3 1,2 1,1 1, % -5% % 5% 1% 5 45 All Commodities
4 4 ETF Securities Energy ETPs Flows Analysis ENERGY Energy Energy Basket Crude oil Natural Gas Heating Oil Gasoline Carbon Past Month Flows Trends in Energy ETPs ENERGY Energy Basket Crude oil Natural Gas -$12.3 -$5.6 -$ $4.7 $7.2 $.1 $6.4 $.7 Heating Oil Gasoline $.7 $4.1 $.1 $. Carbon $. Net Cumulative Flows into Energy 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1, , Crude oil % -5% % 5% 1% Precious Metals ETPs Flows Analysis PRECIOUS METALS Precious Metals , ,126.8 Precious Metals Basket Gold ,178. 4,7.1 Silver Platinum Palladium Past Month Flows in Precious Metals ETPs PRECIOUS METALS -$1. $252.9 Precious Metals Basket -$.5 Gold Silver -$.1 $175. $4.3 Platinum -$.1 $41.7 Palladium -$3.7 Net Cumulative Flows into Precious Metals 16, 15, 14, 13, 12, 11, 1, 9, 8, % -5% % 5% 1% 4,5 4, Gold 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5-5
5 5 ETF Securities Industrial Metals ETPs Flows Analysis INDUSTRIAL METALS Industrial Metals Industrial Metals Basket Aluminium Copper Nickel Zinc Tin Lead Past Month Flows in Industrial Metals ETPs INDUSTRIAL METALS Industrial Metals Basket $17.2 $7.2 $1.9 Aluminium -$.1 $6. Copper $2.5 $2. Nickel -$.4 Zinc $2.3 Tin -$.6 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 1, Net Cumulative Flows into Industrial Metals % -5% % 5% 1% 1 8 Copper Aug 15 Oct 15 Dec 15 Feb 16 Apr 16 Jun 16 Aug 16 Agriculture ETPs Flows Analysis AGRICULTURE Agriculture Agriculture Basket Wheat Corn Soybeans Cotton Coffee Sugar Soybean Oil Cocoa Net Cumulative Flows into Agriculture 1,5 1,3 1, Past Month Flows in Agricultural ETPs AGRICULTURE Agriculture Basket Wheat $18.9 $17.3 $6.8 $.4 $.1 Corn $.2 $.2 Soybeans $1. $. Cotton Coffee -$.1 -$.5 -$.3 -$1.4 Sugar Soybean Oil -$5.8 -$.4 $.7 $. Cocoa $1.3 $. -1% -5% % 5% 1% 9 8 Wheat
6 6 ETF Securities Livestock ETPs Flows Analysis LIVESTOCK Livestock Livestock Basket Lean Hogs Live Cattle Past Month Flows in Livestock ETPs LIVESTOCK -$.3 $1.4 Livestock Basket $. $. Lean Hogs $1.2 Live Cattle -$.2 $.1 Net Cumulative Flows into Livestock Equity ETPs Flows Analysis EQUITIES Region Global US Europe Asia Australia Style Large Cap Small Cap MLP Gold Miners Robo Cyber % -5% % 5% 1% Basket EQUITIES Global US Europe Asia Australia Past Month Flows in Equity ETPs $23.2 -$4.1 -$12.4 $17.1 $. $17.1 $38.5 $1.2-1% -5% % 5% 1% Net Cumulative Flows into Equities 1,1 1, Robo
7 7 ETF Securities Bond ETPs Flows Analysis BONDS Bonds Global Europe Emerging Markets Government Corporate Past Month Flows in Bond ETPs BONDS $31.8 Global $1.1 Europe Emerging Markets $21.7 % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% Net Cumulative Flows into Bonds Emerging Markets Currency ETPs Flows Analysis CURRENCIES FX G USD CAD EUR GBP CHF NOK SEK JPY CNY INR AUD NZD Commodity FX n.b. Due to each currency being a pair, there is double counting in the flow data Net Cumulative Flows into Currencies G1 USD CAD EUR GBP CHF -$.7 NOK SEK JPY CNY INR AUD NZD Commodity FX Past Month Flows in Currency ETPs -$22.6 -$13.3 -$.4 -$9.8 -$27.4 -$.4 $. $. $4.1 $.1 $. $.1 $8.7 $3.2 $2.2 $. $.8 $1.3 $.4-1% -5% % 5% 1% GBP -1.
8 8 ETF Securities Important Information General This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited ( ETFS UK ) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the FCA ). The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value. This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States. This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents. ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit. 728 ETF Securities (UK) Limited 3 Lombard Street London EC3V 9AA United Kingdom t +44 () f +44 () e info@etfsecurities.com w etfsecurities.com
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