Commodity Monthly Monitor Sentiment overshadows fundamentals for now

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1 Commodity Monthly Monitor Sentiment overshadows fundamentals for now June/July 2 Summary Outside the energy sector, investor sentiment for commodities has softened on the back of concern over the global economic outlook and the volatility that has pervaded financial markets. Volatility has been a ubiquitous force not only across asset classes, but across regions, as uncertainty over the health of the Chinese economy has lingered at the same time as fears of a Grexit has risen. Although policymakers have warned investors to expect protracted market volatility, stimulus in China, Japan, Europe and beyond is likely to keep demand conditions favourable for most commodities. With improving commodity fundamentals beginning to reassert, we expect that sentiment will rebound in coming months as stronger evidence of the global recovery begins to be witnessed. Martin Arnold, Director - Global FX & Commodity Strategist Nitesh Shah, Associate Director - Research Analyst Aneeka Gupta, Associate - Research Analyst Currency impact overshadows stronger El Niño threat for softs. Sharp moves in sugar have largely been currency related, offsetting any concern over reduced supply if the El Niño intensifies later in the year. Meanwhile good US growing conditions have kept any gains in check for grains. Gold stable as tighter US policy overshadows Greece concerns. Gold outperformed other precious metals, remaining resilient despite the threat of rising US rates. Other metals in the sector were adversely impacted by evidence of softer demand. Softer Chinese economic sentiment weighs on industrial metals. Despite broadly tighter fundamental conditions, deteriorating Chinese economic sentiment weighed on the industrial metals complex. We expect recovery in prices, as supply optimism begins to fade in the latter stages of 2. Contents Commodities market overview 1 Summary tables 4 CFTC net positioning 5 Inventories 9 Moving average and volumes 13 Futures curves 17 Roll yields 21 Recent publications 27 Energy sector buoyant as demand strengthens. Investors have cut bets of a near-term upside move in oil prices, despite rising demand. With oil supply remaining elevated on a global scale, the risk of a downside move in crude prices will increase if demand growth fades. Commodity Monthly Matrix 1 Performance 2-1 Mth - 6 Mth - 12 Mth Current Returns Price vs 2 Inventories 3 Positioning 4 11-June 13-May All Commodities -1.9% -7.8% -21.5% Roll Yield 5 Price 2 (-1 Mth) days MA (- 3 Mths) (- 1 Mth) Score Score Energy.8% -1.% -41.% WTI Oil % -3.4% 4.8% -5% -.7% (3) (3) Industrial Metals -7.9% -1.3% -12.8% Brent Oil 65.3% -4.6% 6.7% -44% -1.% (3) 1 Precious Metals -.8% -4.7% -9.6% Natural Gas 2.8.8% -12.4% 55.% -8% -1.1% (3) (2) Agriculture -2.4% -13.3% -25.5% Gasoline % 12.1% -9.4% -14% 2.2% 2 (1) MSCI World -.9% 5.7% 3.6% Heating Oil % -7.6% -8.5% 11% -.4% (1) US Aggregate Bond -.5% -.1% 2.4% Carbon % 9.1% % (2) Wheat % -4.2% 2.4% 68% -1.4% (1) (2) Corn % -4.% 5.3% 35% -1.8% (2) Soybeans 9-4.4% -4.9% 4.1% 1.9% (2) (2) Sugar % -18.7% -8.5% -61% -3.3% (2) (1) Cotton.6-2.8%.8% -3.6% -42% -2.9% (1) (2) Coffee % -19.1% - 142% -1.8% (1) (1) Soybean Oil.3.8% 3.6% -.3% 69% -.1% 2 (3) Cocoa 3,94 4.8% 4.5% - 49% -.3% 1 (4) CFTC Net Speculative Positioning Aluminum 1, % -8.4% -4.5% -28% -.9% (2) 1 (in' contracts) Copper 5, % -6.3% -17.5% -358% -.2% (2) 1 Zinc 2,19-8.5% -3.5% -5.3% -31% -.1% (2) 1 Nickel 13, % -1.8% 7.7% 16%.% (2) (4) Lead 1, % -4.7% -16.2% -26% -.2% (2) 2 Tin 14, % -19.4% -3.3% 13% -.1% (2) Gold 1,18 -.3% -2.3% - % - 2 Silver % -4.5% - -11% - (4) 2 Platinum 1, -2.% -8.4% - -11% - (4) 2 Palladium % -5.6% - -25% - (4) (2) Live Cattle % -2.8% - 9% 1.5% 3 4 Lean Hogs.8.8%.7% - 24% 2.8% 4 (2) Feeder Cattle % 2.% - 59%.8% 4 2 The score matrix is designed to highlight significant changes in key variables but should not be viewed as predictor of performance. Source: ETF Securities, Bloomberg Sources: Bloomberg, Bloomberg TR Indexes for basket returns, data to Thursday 11 June 2. Precious Metals Livestock Industrial Metals Energy Agriculture 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Source: CFTC, Bloomberg " - " Information not available. Green = returns positive, inventories falling, positioning rising, roll yield positive. Red = the opposite. Black = neutral. 1 Detailed explanation of the matrix calculations can be found at the end of this report. 2 All prices are futures prices to June 11, 2. Broad sector returns based on Bloomberg Commodity Index family. 3 % change in inventory over the past 3 months except for sugar and coffee which are based on past 6 months as data is updated bi-annually by USDA. 4 CFTC futuresand LME COTR net positioning as at June 9, 2, and June 5, 2 respectively, % change from previous month. 5 Calculated as % difference between front month and second month futures prices on report date. 1

2 Sector Overview Agriculture A depreciating Brazilian Real sent sugar 13.6% lower last month. Brazil, the largest producer, supplies about 25% of global sugar. Weather conditions have turned favourable for the harvest in the country and so the threat of crop damage has diminished. Global raw sugar prices now hover at a 6 ½ year low. Despite the threat of El Niño hampering rainfall in the second largest producer, India, monsoon rainfall, which started this month, has been largely in line with its historic average. Intensification of the El Niño could reverse some of the bearish sentiment, but only modestly given the elevated stocks of raw sugar from the past four years of overproduction. Sugar is likely to go into a fifth year of supply surplus. Industrial Metals A sharp turnaround for the industrial metals sector over the past month was prompted by negative sentiment toward the Chinese appetite for commodities, with the stronger US Dollar last month also had an adverse effect on industrial metals prices. While wheat has gained close to 12% in the first three weeks of the past month, a surprisingly bearish USDA WASDE report and more favourable weather conditions in the US trimmed the gains to only 6% for the month as a whole. El Niño once again could be a game changer if drought were to affect the crop in Australia later this year. But it is too early to say if it is a credible threat yet. Cocoa gained a further 4.8% last month, as a tighter supply from Ghana and El Niño fears beset the market. However, grind demand has also been somewhat weak and could threaten the price bullish sentiment. Despite economic activity data pointing to a stabilisation in the Chinese economy, lower import figures, particularly for copper, weighed on the industrial metals sector. Total copper imports were lower by 6% in May on a year earlier, a result of elevated local production. Meanwhile, treatment and refining costs have edged lower in 2, indicating a tightening concentrate market. Zinc was the worst performer within the complex after a sharp jump in stock levels in May gave rise to fears that a potential supply shortage was overblown. While announcements of mine closures in Australia and Ireland (taking around % of global supply off market by 217) have buoyed zinc prices in recent months, off-exchange stocks have dulled investor enthusiasm. Agriculture - June Returns* 1% 5% % -5% -1% -% Source: Bloomberg Industrial Metals - June Returns* % -4% -6% -8% -1% Source: Bloomberg Sugar Soybeans Cotton Coffee Corn Soybean Oil Lean Hogs Live Cattle Feeder Cattle Cocoa Copper (COMEX) Zinc Copper (LME) Aluminum Lead Nickel Tin Wheat Energy Despite OPEC maintaining current production levels and very little sign of material supply tightening elsewhere, Brent and WTI gained.3% and 2.6%, respectively as the market responded to higher demand. Unfortunately the higher demand has been in response to the sharp price drop we saw between June 214 and March 2 and without the weakness in prices we are unlikely to see that demand increase sustained. Precious Metals Although concern about Greek finances remains elevated and has resulted in continued rising volatility across a range of asset classes, including commodities, gold and silver have not benefitted as much as we would have expected. Expectations of tighter US policy and a stronger US Dollar has capped any potential upside for precious metals. Gold was the most resilient in the precious metals sector, with demand being an issue for other metals. Silver stockpiles remain elevated and sustainable gains are unlikely until industrial demand can make inroads into inventory levels. Gasoline prices rose 7.6% last month reflecting rising crude oil prices and isolated outages at West Coast and Midwest refineries. Investors additionally have benefited from an increasing positive roll yield. Seasonal demand drove the price of natural gas higher. Air conditioning demand in the summer months tends to increase the demand for power, seeing a seasonal gain in prices. Platinum group metals also struggled, with palladium the worst performing metal in the sector. Disappointing Chinese car sales data was the reason as the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported that sales fell.4% in May on a year earlier. While auto demand trends have softened in Europe somewhat recently, supply side issues could support platinum in coming months. The threat of strikes in the gold mining sector could overflow to platinum mining and restrict supply something that hasn t occurred with a weak South African Rand. Energy - June Returns* 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % -4% Source: Bloomberg Precious Metals - June Returns*.% -1.% -2.% -3.% -4.% -5.% -6.% Source: Bloomberg Carbon Heating Oil Brent Oil Natural Gas WTI Oil Palladium Silver Platinum Gold Gasoline *Note: all returns are based on front month futures prices in the month to Thursday 11 June 2. 2

3 Technical Overview Positioning Top 5/Bottom 5 Change in CFTC Net Positions 1 Net speculative longs in Brent crude were trimmed by 44% as investors Coffee reduced their bullish bets on oil making significant gains in the short term Heating Oil Αfollowing the 3% rally since March 2. Speculative shorts on coffee eased last month, bringing the market into a net Soybean Oil long position of 1,352 contracts from net short 3,242 contracts a month Wheat earlier. There is a growing sense that the market has bottomed out, after Feeder Cattle Α prices have fallen by 25% in the past half-year. Cotton Soybeans futures have moved into net short 2,885 contracts from net long Brent Oil** 2,796 contracts a month earlier as record planting this year is likely to place Sugar negative pressure on prices. Soybeans After turning positive for the first time since August 214, speculative net Copper positions for copper have once again turned negative, exacerbating the price declines in May. We expect that as we continue to see Chinese economic data Α Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Technicals Top 5/Bottom 5 Price Diff to 2 day moving av. (dma) 4 Sugar and coffee are both trading 19% below their 2 dma as Brazilian real Gasoline weakness has seen their prices decline. stabilise that sentiment could rebound and provide good price support in coming months. Although net speculative postions in gold have nearly halfed over the past month, other precious metals have seen modest declines over the period, but all remain in positive territory. Inventories Top 5/Bottom 5 Change in Inventories 2 Corn inventories increased by 5.3% over the past three month with Brazilian Natural Gas production in particular driving up ending stock forecasts. Copper stockpiles have declined by nearly 2% over the past three months, led primarily by the slump in SHFE inventory levels. LME tin stocks are at the lowest level in over five years, but price weakness has been on the back of a jump in supply from Indonesia ahead of new regulations to be introduced in Q3/4 2. A 55% increase in natural gas inventories over the past three months has put stocks back in line with their 5-year average, in stark contrast to this time a year ago when inventories had fallen more than 1 s.d. below the 5-year average. Curve Dynamics Top 5/Bottom 5 Roll Yields 3 Contango in the sugar futures curve steepened to provide a negative roll yield Lean Hogs of 3.3% from 2.4% last month. Industrial metals roll yields have remained relatively stable over the past month, with the flattest front-end belonging to nickel which is neutral for roll yield. In contrast, the aluminium curve has the greatest backwardation at the front end, detracting.9% from returns. Backwardation in gasoline increased to provide a positive roll yield of 2.2% from.3% a month ago. Tin is the furthest commodity from its 2-dma on the downside, indicating significant bearishness for its outlook, despite extremely low inventory levels. From a technical perspective, nickel has the most promising outlook it s the only industrial metal where price is above the 5-dma. Gasoline is trading 12.1% above its 2dma, driven by recent refinery outages and seasonal demand. Nickel Brent Oil Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg -4% -3% -1% % 1% Corn WTI Oil Heating Oil Gasoline Lead Copper Tin Gasoline Soybeans Live Cattle Feeder Cattle Wheat Corn Coffee Cotton Sugar Carbon Cocoa Soybean Oil Feeder Cattle Nickel Natural Gas Sugar Coffee Tin -4% % 2% 4% 6% -4% -3% -1% % 1% 2% 3% 4% Contango Backwardation -3% -1% % 1% 2% %< 2 dma % > 2 dma 1 CFTC futures net positioning as at report date, percent change from previous month. 2 Percent change in inventory based on 3 month change (in %). 3 Roll yields calculated as percent change between front month futures price and next month futures price on Jun 11, 2. 4 Percent difference between the front month futures price and its 2 day moving average on Jun 11, 2. 3

4 Summary Tables PRICES 1 Current 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month 1 Year ROLL YIELDS 2 Unit Exchange 11-Jun 1 Week 1 Month 3 Month Energy Energy WTI Oil % 26.2% 1.4% -41.8% # WTI Oil USD/bbl. NYMEX -.7% -.6% -1.7% -3.7% Brent Oil 65.3% 13.2% 2.2% -4.8% # Brent Oil USD/bbl. ICE -1.% -1.1% -1.1% -.6% Natural Gas 2.8.8%.% -22.3% -37.3% # Natural Gas USD/MMBtu NYMEX -1.1% -1.1% -1.6% -.9% Gasoline % 17.1% 31.6% -28.7% 2 Gasoline USD/gal. NYMEX 2.2% 1.6%.3%.2% Heating Oil % 5.5% -6.8% -33.9% # Heating Oil USD/gal. NYMEX -.4% -.5% -.3% 1.6% Carbon % 1.9% 11.3% 39.9% # Carbon EUR/MT ICE -.3% -.3% -.4% -.4% Agriculture Agriculture Wheat %.2% -17.4% -14.4% # Wheat USD/bu. CBOT -1.4% -1.% -1.%.8% Corn % -7.2% -8.6% -19.2% # Corn USD/bu. CBOT -1.8% -1.8% -.6% -1.8% Soybeans % -5.% -9.8% -35.% 3 Soybeans USD/bu. CBOT 1.9% 1.3%.9% -.4% Sugar % -11.4% -23.2% -3.8% # Sugar USD/lb. NYBOT -3.3% -2.7% -2.4% -1.3% Cotton.6-2.8% 5.3% 5.% -25.7% # Cotton USD/lb. NYBOT -2.9% -2.6%.2% -1.1% Coffee % 2.8% -24.7% -23.1% # Coffee USD/lb. NYBOT -1.8% -1.7% -.7% -2.5% Soybean Oil.3.8% 7.5% 4.3% -13.4% # Soybean Oil USD/lb. CBOT -.1%.% -.5% -.4% Cocoa 3,94 4.8% 5.2% 7.1% -.8% # Cocoa USD/MT NYBOT -.3%.% -1.8% 3.% Industrial Metals Industrial Metals Aluminum 1, % -1.3% -11.1% -6.3% # Aluminum USD/MT LME -.9% -.9% -.8% -.1% Copper % 1.8% -9.2% -12.2% # Copper USD/lb. COMEX -.2% -.2%.5%.6% Copper (LME) 5, % 1.9% -1.% -12.8% # Copper (LME) USD/MT LME -.1%.%.%.2% Zinc 2,19-8.5% 6.5% -3.3%.% 9 Zinc USD/MT LME -.1%.% -.1% -.3% Nickel 13, % -3.3% -18.2% -27.2% 7 Nickel USD/MT LME.%.% -.1% -.1% Lead 1, % 2.6% -6.% -11.7% # Lead USD/MT LME -.2% -.3% -.3%.1% Tin 14, % -14.4% -27.% -34.9% # Tin USD/MT LME -.1% -.1% -.1% -.1% Precious Metals Precious Metals Gold 1,18 -.3% 2.5% -3.7% -6.4% 8 Gold USD/t oz. COMEX.%.% -.1% -.1% Silver % 4.% -6.4% -16.8% # Silver USD/t oz. COMEX -.3% -.3% -.1% -.1% Platinum 1, -2.% -.9% -11.% -25.4% # Platinum USD/t oz. NYMEX -.2% -.2% -.2% -.2% Palladium % -5.9% -9.4% -13.7% 6 Palladium USD/t oz. NYMEX.%.% -.2%.% Livestock Livestock Live Cattle % -.2% -4.4% 8.5% 4 Live Cattle USD/lb. CME 1.5% 1.2% 1.% 5.9% Lean Hogs.8.8% 26.9% -7.1% -29.8% 1 Lean Hogs USD/lb. CME 2.8% 2.% -4.2% -12.5% Feeder Cattle % 5.4% -1.% 11.5% 5 Feeder Cattle USD/lb. CME.8%.7% -.3%.7% Sources: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Sources: Bloomberg, ETF Securities CFTC NET POSITIONING 3 Energy WTI Oil 369, ,36 389, , ,82 5 Oil - US 47,63 26% -3% 5% 24% Brent Oil** 98,378 83,56 174,465 2, ,21 # Oil - OECD Europe** 32 1% - 7% 4% Natural Gas -263,37-137, , ,362-91,877 # Natural Gas - DOE 2,344 % 24% 55% -3% Gasoline 52,299 61,589 61,87 75,531 58,552 9 Gasoline - DOE 217,354 3% -4% -9% % Heating Oil 131 6,111-1,724-29,73-14,52 Heating Oil - DOE 11,72-53% 1% -8% -31% Agriculture Energy Industrial Metals Wheat -28,85-14,529-88,73 7,678-12,87 Aluminum 3,944,3-23% -4% -5% -13% Corn -38,58 22,14-59, ,56 214,519 Aluminum - LME 3,658,525-24% -5% -7% -% Soybeans -2, ,41 2,796 56,529 96,581 Aluminium - SHFE 285,478 -% 3% 33% 3% Sugar 11,86 83,231 3,24-14, ,336 Copper 476,674 -% -13% -17% 68% Cotton 37,6 38,742 64, ,949 Copper - LME 317,475-11% -6% -4% 91% Coffee 1,352 1,428-3,242 36,494 4,342 Copper - SHFE 134,816-8% -26% -4% 5% Soybean Oil 16,112 11,71 62,799 39,218-17,951 Copper - COMEX 24,383-58% 5% 8% -11% Cocoa 59,35 31,75 39,671 4,836 71,417 Nickel - LME 465,69 134% 5% 8% % Industrial Metals 5 Zinc 631,918-43% -5% -19% Copper -13,42-2, ,939 -,24 Zinc - LME 449,25-46% -1% -17% -35% Aluminum 142,28 195,68 197,93 2,45 - Zinc - SHFE 182,668-35% -6% 47% 89% Nickel 13,26 19,68 11,224 23,241 - Lead 219,275-33% 5% -16% -24% Zinc 73,957 87,76 17,38 83,286 - Lead - LME 186,325-29% 14% -12% -% Lead 27,374 21,852 36,993 16,994 - Lead - SHFE 32,95-49% -28% -33% -52% Tin 1,642 2, 1,449 2,26 - Tin - LME 7,395-45% -% -3% -34% Precious Metals Current 1 Month 6 Month 1 Year Agriculture Gold 79,382 3,95 79,81 135,584 75,973 Wheat - USDA 22,4 4.7% -.5% 2.4% 3.8% Silver 23,139 25,6 26,121 27,464 1,65 Corn - USDA 195,19 36% 1.7% 5.3% 1.6% Platinum 23,336 28,868 26,174 28,719 43,853 Soybeans - USDA 93,22 53% -3.1% 4.1% 4% Palladium 14,398 16,4 19,128 21,25 24,787 Sugar - USDA 4,529 13% % -8% Livestock Cotton - USDA 16,8 45% -.2% -3.6% -1.9% Live Cattle 18,37 86,328 99, ,214 14,759 Coffee - USDA 36,495 14% Lean Hogs 23,992 5,184 19,361 75,925 76,968 Soybean Oil - USDA 3,6-5% 2.% % 12% Feeder Cattle 1,874 7,836 6,852 6,97 12,319 INVENTORY LEVELS 4 Sources: Bloomberg, ETF Securities Current 5 Yr Average 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month 1Performance of front month futures from 11 (1 Year), 11 (6 Month), 11 (3 Month) and 11 (1 Month) to 11. 2Roll return non-annualised from front month futures into second " month on 11 (3 Month), 11 (1 Month), 4 (1 Week), Net positions in number of contracts. 4 Current inventories relative to 1, 3, 6 months ago. Under the column "5 yr average" is the current inventory level relative to 5 year average inventory. For energy, 5 yr average is the average of the same month as report month over the past 5 years. **Brent 5 Yr average of net positions from January 211 as positions were not reported by CFTC before then and inventory data (OECD) reported with 2 month lag with current = Dec All Industrial metals positioning data (excluding copper) is sourced from LME COTR data in Bloomberg from 28th July 14 (first available date). 4

5 CFTC Speculative Net Long Futures Positions Agriculture Cocoa Coffee 1 4, , , , , ,5-6.5 Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Price (RHS, USD/MT) Price (RHS, USD/lb.) Corn Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Price (RHS, USD/bu.) Cotton Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Price (RHS, USD/lb.) Soybean Oil Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 - Price (RHS, USD/lb.) Soybeans Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Price (RHS, USD/bu.) Sugar Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Price (RHS, USD/lb.) Wheat Jun-1 - Sep-1 Dec-1 Price (RHS, USD/bu.) Note: standard deviation based on 5 year average 5 All commodity futures price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated.

6 Energy Brent Oil 2 1 Average* Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan- ICE managed money net positioning Price (RHS, USD/bbl.) WTI Oil Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Price (RHS, USD/bbl.) Natural Gas Jun-1 - Sep-1 Dec-1 Price (RHS, USD/MMBtu) Gasoline Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 - Price (RHS, USD/gal.) Heating Oil Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 - Price (RHS, USD/gal.) Note: standard deviation based on 5 year average 6 All commodity futures price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated. *Brent average of net positions from January 211 as positions were not reported by CFTC before then

7 Industrial Metals Copper (COMEX) Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 - Price (RHS, USD/lb.) Aluminum Feb- Feb- Series average LME non-commercial net positioning - Price (RHS, USD/MT) 2, 1,95 1,9 1,85 1,8 1,75 1,7 1,65 1,6 1,55 Nickel Series average Feb- Feb- LME non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/MT) Zinc, , ,1 9 13,5 8 13, ,5 5 12, 4 Feb- Feb- - LME non-commercial net positioning Series average Price (RHS, USD/MT) 2,45 2,4 2,35 2,3 2,25 2,2 2, 2,1 2,5 2, 1,95 Lead Feb- - Feb- Series average LME non-commercial net positioning Price (RHS, USD/MT) 2, ,1 3. 2, 2.5 1,9 2. 1,8 1,7 Tin 1.5 1,6 1. Feb- Feb- - Series average LME non-commercial net positioning 19, 18, 17, 16,, 14, 13, 12, Price (RHS, USD/MT) Note: standard deviation based on 5 year average. LME non-commercial net positions averaged from 28 th July 14 and respective graphs represent daily data. 7 All commodity futures price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated.

8 Precious Metals Gold Silver Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 2,1 6 1,9 5 1, ,5 2 1,3 1 1, Price (RHS, USD/t oz.) Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Price (RHS, USD/t oz.) Platinum Livestock Lean Hogs Jun-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Dec Price (RHS, USD/t oz.) Price (RHS, USD/lb.) 2, 1,9 1,8 1,7 1,6 1,5 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 1, Palladium Live Cattle Jun Jun-1 Sep-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Dec Price (RHS, USD/t oz.) Price (RHS, USD/lb.) Feeder Cattle Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 - Price (RHS, USD/lb.) Note: standard deviation based on 5 year average 8 All commodity futures price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated.

9 Inventories Agriculture Corn -Stock to Use Annual data in %, from 198 to /81 81/82 82/83 83/84 84/85 85/86 86/87 87/88 88/89 89/9 9/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/ /1 1/2 2/3 3/4 4/5 5/6 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 14/ /16 % chg in projections vs. previous = 1.6% Corn - Ending Stocks Annual data in mln tons, from 198 to chg in projections vs. previous = 3.3 8/81 81/82 82/83 83/84 84/85 85/86 86/87 87/88 88/89 89/9 9/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/ /1 1/2 2/3 3/4 4/5 5/6 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 14/ /16 Coffee -Stock to Use Annual data in %, from 198 to /81 81/82 82/83 83/84 84/85 85/86 86/87 87/88 88/89 89/9 9/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/ /1 1/2 2/3 3/4 4/5 5/6 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 14/ % chg in projections vs. previous = 13.7% Coffee - Ending Stocks Annual data in mln bags (6 kg), from 198 to chg in projections vs. previous = / / / / 12/ 13/ 14/ Cotton -Stock to Use Annual data in %, from 198 to % chg in projections vs. previous = -.2% Cotton - Ending Stocks Annual data in mln 48 lb Bales, from 198 to chg in projections vs. previous = /81 81/82 82/83 83/84 84/85 85/86 86/87 87/88 88/89 89/9 9/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/ /1 1/2 2/3 3/4 4/5 5/6 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 14/ /16 8/81 81/82 82/83 83/84 84/85 85/86 86/87 87/88 88/89 89/9 9/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/ /1 1/2 2/3 3/4 4/5 5/6 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 14/ /16 Soybeans -Stock to Use Annual data in %, from 198 to /81 81/82 82/83 83/84 84/85 85/86 86/87 87/88 88/89 89/9 9/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/ /1 1/2 2/3 3/4 4/5 5/6 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 14/ /16 % chg in projections vs. previous = -3.5% Soybeans - Ending Stocks Annual data in mln tons, from 198 to /81 81/82 82/83 83/84 84/85 85/86 86/87 87/88 88/89 89/9 9/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/ /1 1/2 2/3 3/4 4/5 5/6 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 14/ /16 chg in projections vs. previous = -3. Note: stock to use data is annual with monthly update of 2/216 estimates 9

10 Soybean Oil -Stock to Use Annual data in %, from 198 to % chg in projections vs. previous = 1.5% 8/81 81/82 82/83 83/84 84/85 85/86 86/87 87/88 88/89 89/9 9/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/ /1 1/2 2/3 3/4 4/5 5/6 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 14/ /16 Soybean Oil - Ending Stocks Annual data in mln Metric Tons, from 198 to chg in projections vs. previous = / 81/ 82/ 83/ 84/ 85/ 86/ 87/ 88/ 89/ 9/ 91/ 92/ 93/ 94/ 95/ 96/ 97/ 98/ 99/ 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 1/11 14/ /16 Sugar -Stock to Use Annual data in %, from 1998 to / 95/ 96/ 97/ 98/ 99/ / 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ % chg in projections vs. previous = -11% 1/11 14/ /16 Sugar - Ending Stocks Annual data in mln Metric Tons, from 198 to 2 chg in projections vs. previous = / 81/ 82/ 83/ 84/ 85/ 86/ 87/ 88/ 89/ 9/ 91/ 92/ 93/ 94/ 95/ 96/ 97/ 98/ 99/ / 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 1/11 14/ /16 Wheat -Stock to Use Annual data in %, from 198 to /81 81/82 82/83 83/84 84/85 85/86 86/87 87/88 88/89 89/9 9/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/ /1 1/2 2/3 3/4 4/5 5/6 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 14/ /16 % chg in projections vs. previous = -.9% Wheat - Ending Stocks Annual data in mln tons, from 198 to / 81/ 82/ 83/ 84/ 85/ 86/ 87/ 88/ 89/ 9/ 91/ 92/ 93/ 94/ 95/ 96/ 97/ 98/ 99/ / 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 1/11 14/ /16 chg in projections vs. previous = -.9 Cocoa - Inventory Annual data in ' metric tons, from 1981 to 2 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Source: International Cocoa Organisation, Bloomberg, ETF Securities Note: stock to use data is annual with monthly update of 2/216 estimates 1

11 Industrial Metals Aluminum Inventory Daily data, from 11 to 11 5,6 5,1 4,6 4,1 3,6 SHFE Inventory (in ' tonnes) LME Inventory (in ' tonnes) Copper Inventory Daily data, from 11 to SHFE Inventory (in' tonnes) LME Inventory (in' tonnes) COMEX Inventory (in ' tonnes) Nickel Inventory Daily data in ' MT, from 11 to Zinc Inventory Daily data, from 11 to 11 1, Jul-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Source: LME, Bloomberg, ETF Securities Nov-14 Jan- Feb SHFE Inventory (in' tonnes) LME Inventory (in ' tonnes) Lead Inventory Daily data, from 11 to Livestock Lean Hogs Inventory SHFE Inventory (in ' tonnes) Annual data in mln Heads, from 198 to LME Inventory (in ' tonnes) 8/81 81/82 82/83 83/84 84/85 85/86 86/87 87/88 88/89 89/9 9/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/ /1 1/2 2/3 3/4 4/5 5/6 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 14/ /16 Tin Inventory Daily data in ' MT, from 11 to Jul-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Source: LME, Bloomberg, ETF Securities Live Cattle Inventory Nov-14 Jan- Annual data in mln Heads, from 198 to 2 1, 1,1 1,5 1, /81 81/82 82/83 83/84 84/85 85/86 86/87 87/88 88/89 89/9 9/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/ /1 1/2 2/3 3/4 4/5 5/6 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 14/ /16 Feb- 11

12 Energy US Oil Inventory Weekly data in mln barrels, from Jun 1 to Yr Average +/-1 stdev Source: DOE, Bloomberg, ETF Securities OECD Europe Oil Industry Inventory Monthly data in mln barrels, from Mar 5 to Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 5Yr Average +/-1 stdev Source: DOE, Bloomberg, ETF Securities Heating Oil Inventory Weekly data in mln barrels, from Jun 1 to Yr Average +/-1 stdev Source: DOE, Bloomberg, ETF Securities Natural Gas Inventory Weekly data in billion cubic feet, from Jun 1 to 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Yr Average +/-1 stdev Source: DOE, Bloomberg, ETF Securities Gasoline Inventory Weekly data in mln barrels, from Jun 1 to Yr Average +/-1 stdev Source: DOE, Bloomberg, ETF Securities Note: "Oil - OECD Inventory" represents OECD industry stocks and is reported with a 2 month lag. 12

13 Commodities Front Month Futures and Trading Volumes Agriculture Cocoa Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/MT, from 11 to 11 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 $3,6 $3,4 $3,2 $3, $2,8 $2,6 $2,4 $2,2 $2, Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) Coffee Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/lb., from 11 to 11 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) $2.4 $2.2 $2. $1.8 $1.6 $1.4 $1.2 $1. Corn Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/bu., from 11 to 11 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) $5. $4.8 $4.6 $4.4 $4.2 $4. $3.8 $3.6 $3.4 $3.2 $3. Cotton Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/lb., from 11 to 11 2,5 $.95 $.9 2, $.85 1,5 $.8 $.75 1, $.7 $.65 5 $.6 $.55 Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) Soybean Oil Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/lb., from 11 to 11 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) $.42 $.4 $.38 $.36 $.34 $.32 $.3 $.28 Soybeans Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/bu., from 11 to 11 3, $16 25, $ $14 2, $13, $12 1, $11 5, $1 $9 Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) Sugar Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/lb., from 11 to 11 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, $.19 $.18 $.17 $.16 $. $.14 $.13 $.12 $.11 $.1 Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) Wheat Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/bu., from 11 to 11 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) $7. $6.5 $6. $5.5 $5. $4.5 Note: all commodity futures trading volume and price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated. 13

14 Energy Brent Oil Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/bbl., from 11 to 11 $18, $16, $14, $12, $1, $8, $6, $4, $2, $ Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) $125 $1 $ $95 $85 $75 $65 $55 $45 WTI Oil Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/bbl., from 11 to 11 $14, $12 $12, $11 $1, $1 $9 $8, $8 $6, $7 $4, $6 $2, $5 $ $4 Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) Natural Gas Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/MMBtu, from 11 to 11 $35, $5. $3, $4.5 $25, $4. $2, $3.5 $, $3. $1, $5, $2.5 $ $2. Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) Gasoline Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/gal., from 11 to 11 $3, $3.7 $25, $3.2 $2, $2.7 $, $1, $2.2 $5, $1.7 $ $1.2 Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) Heating Oil Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/gal., from 11 to 11 $3, $3.6 $25, $3.1 $2, $2.6 $, $1, $2.1 $5, $1.6 $ $1.1 Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) Carbon Carbon Front Month Futures Price Daily data in EUR/MT, from 11 to Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) Note: all commodity futures trading volume and price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated. 14

15 Industrial Metals Aluminum Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/MT, from 11 to 11 $35, $2,2 $3, $2,1 $25, $2, $2, $1,9 $, $1,8 $1, $5, $1,7 $ $1,6 Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) Lead Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/MT, from 11 to 11 $3,5 $3, $2,5 $2, $1,5 $1, $5 $ $2,4 $2,3 $2,2 $2,1 $2, $1,9 $1,8 $1,7 $1,6 $1,5 Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) Copper (COMEX) Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/lb., from 11 to 11 $1, $9, $8, $7, $6, $5, $4, $3, $2, $1, $ Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) $3.4 $3.3 $3.2 $3.1 $3. $2.9 $2.8 $2.7 $2.6 $2.5 $2.4 Copper (LME) Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/MT, from 11 to 11 $35, $3, $25, $2, $, $1, $5, $ $7,4 $7,2 $7, $6,8 $6,6 $6,4 $6,2 $6, $5,8 $5,6 $5,4 Volume ($mn) 2 dma (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) Prices (RHS) Nickel Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/MT, from 11 to 11 $1, $9, $8, $7, $6, $5, $4, $3, $2, $1, $ $21, $2, $19, $18, $17, $16, $, $14, $13, $12, $11, Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) Tin Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/MT, from 11 to 11 $1,4 $24, $1,2 $22, $1, $2, $8 $18, $6 $16, $4 $2 $14, $ $12, Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) Zinc Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/MT, from 11 to 11 $1, $9, $8, $7, $6, $5, $4, $3, $2, $1, $ $2,5 $2,4 $2,3 $2,2 $2,1 $2, $1,9 $1,8 $1,7 Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) Note: all commodity futures trading volume and price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated.

16 Precious Metals Gold Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/t oz., from 11 to 11 $5, $45, $4, $35, $3, $25, $2, $, $1, $5, $ Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) $1,4 $1,35 $1,3 $1,25 $1,2 $1, $1,1 Silver Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/t oz., from 11 to 11 $14, $12, $1, $8, $6, $4, $2, $ Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) $22 $21 $2 $19 $18 $17 $16 $ $14 $13 Platinum Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/t oz., from 11 to 11 $3, $2,5 $2, $1,5 $1, $5 $ Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) Livestock Lean Hogs Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/lb., from 11 to 11 $4,5 $4, $3,5 $3, $2,5 $2, $1,5 $1, $5 $ $1.4 $1.3 $1.2 $1.1 $1. $.9 $.8 $.7 $.6 $.5 Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) $1,55 $1,5 $1,45 $1,4 $1,35 $1,3 $1,25 $1,2 $1, $1,1 $1,5 Palladium Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/t oz., from 11 to 11 $2,5 $2, $1,5 $1, $5 $ Live Cattle Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/lb., from 11 to 11 $9, $8, $7, $6, $5, $4, $3, $2, $1, $ Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) $95 $9 $85 $8 $75 $7 $65 $6 $1.75 $1.65 $1.55 $1.45 $1.35 $1.25 $1. Feeder Cattle Front Month Futures Price Daily data in USD/lb., from 11 to 11 $3,5 $2.5 $3, $2.3 $2,5 $2.1 $2, $1.9 $1,5 $1.7 $1, $5 $1.5 $ $1.3 Volume ($mn) Prices (RHS) 5 dma (RHS) 2 dma (RHS) Note: all commodity futures trading volume and price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated. 16

17 Futures Curves Agriculture Cocoa Futures USD/MT $3,2 $3,1 $3, $2,9 $2,8 $2,7 $2,6 M Coffee Futures USD/lb. $1.65 $1.6 $1.55 $1.5 $1.45 $1.4 $1.35 $1.3 $1.25 M Corn Futures USD/bu. $4.5 $4.3 $4.1 $3.9 $3.7 $3.5 Cotton Futures USD/lb. $.68 $.67 $.66 $.65 $.64 $.63 $.62 $.61 $.6 $.59 M M Soybean Oil Futures USD/lb. $.35 $.35 $.34 $.34 $.33 $.33 $.32 $.32 $.31 $.31 $ M Soybeans Futures USD/bu. $1 $1 $1 $1 $9 $9 $9 M Sugar Futures USD/lb. $.17 $.16 $. $.14 $.13 $.12 $.11 Wheat Futures USD/bu. $6.3 $6.1 $5.9 $5.7 $5.5 $5.3 $5.1 $4.9 $4.7 M M Note: all commodity futures price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated. 17

18 Energy Brent Oil Futures USD/bbl. $75 $73 $71 $69 $67 $65 $63 $61 $59 $57 $ WTI Oil Futures USD/bbl. $7 $65 $6 $55 $5 $ Gasoline Futures USD/gal. $2.2 $2.1 $2. $1.9 $1.8 $1.7 $1.6 $1.5 $1.4 $1.3 $ Natural Gas Futures USD/MMBtu $3.9 $3.7 $3.5 $3.3 $3.1 $2.9 $2.7 $ Heating Oil Futures USD/gal. $2.2 $2. $2.1 $2.5 $2. $1.95 $1.9 $1.85 $1.8 $1.75 $ Carbon Carbon Futures EUR/MT M Note: all commodity futures price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated. 18

19 Industrial Metals Aluminum Futures USD/MT $2,5 $2, $1,95 $1,9 $1,85 $1,8 $1,75 $1, Lead Futures USD/MT $2,1 $2,5 $2, $1,95 $1,9 $1,85 $1,8 $1,75 $1, Copper (COMEX) Futures USD/lb. $3. $2.9 $2.8 $2.7 $2.6 $2.5 $2.4 M Copper (LME) Futures USD/MT $6,6 $6,4 $6,2 $6, $5,8 $5,6 $5, Nickel Futures USD/MT $, $14,5 $14, $13,5 $13, $12,5 $12, Tin Futures USD/MT $18, $17,5 $17, $16,5 $16, $,5 $, $14,5 M Zinc Futures USD/MT $2,35 $2,3 $2,25 $2,2 $2, $2,1 $2,5 $2, $1,95 $1, Note: all commodity futures price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated. 19

20 Precious Metals Gold Futures USD/t oz. $1,3 $1,28 $1,26 $1,24 $1,22 $1,2 $1,18 $1,16 $1,14 $1,12 $1,1 M Silver Futures USD/t oz. $18 $17 $17 $16 $16 $ M Platinum Futures USD/t oz. $1,135 $1,13 $1,125 $1,12 $1,1 $1,11 $1, $1,1 $1,95 $1, Livestock Lean Hogs Futures USD/lb. $.9 $.85 $.8 $.75 $.7 $.65 $ M8 1 Palladium Futures USD/t oz. $8 $79 $78 $77 $76 $75 $ Live Cattle Futures USD/lb. $1.6 $1.55 $1.5 $1.45 $1.4 $1.35 $1.3 M Feeder Cattle Futures USD/lb. $2.3 $2.25 $2.2 $2. $2.1 $2.5 $2. $1.95 $1.9 $1.85 $1.8 M Note: all commodity futures price data is denominated in USD unless otherwise indicated. 2

21 Roll Yields Agriculture Bloomberg Cocoa Subindex.4%.2%.% -.2% -.4% -.6% -.8% -1.% -1.2% -1.4% Feb Apr Jun Aug Nov 1 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average Cocoa Futures 2% 1% 1% % -1% -1% 'Sep ' ' 'Dec 'Sep Thursday 11-1 month (11 ) 'Mar 16 'Dec 'Jul Bloomberg Coffee Subindex.% -.5% -1.% -1.5% -2.% -2.5% -3.% -3.5% Feb Apr Jun Aug Nov 1 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average Coffee Futures % -1% -1% -3% -3% -4% -4% -5% -5% ' 'Sep ' 'Dec 'Sep 'Mar 16 'Dec 'Jul Thursday 11-1 month (11 ) ' 'Sep 17 'Jul 17 2 Bloomberg Corn Subindex 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% -3% -4% -5% Feb Apr Jun Aug Nov 1 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average Corn Futures % -1% -3% -4% -5% -6% 'Sep ' 'Dec ' 'Sep 'Mar 16 'Dec 'Jul Thursday 11-1 month (11 ) ' 'Sep 17 'Jul 17 2 Bloomberg Cotton Subindex 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % -4% Feb Apr Jun Nov 1 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average Cotton Futures 1% % -1% -1% -3% -3% -4% 'Oct 'Oct 'Dec 'Dec 'Mar 16 'Mar 16 'Jul 16 'Jul 16 Thursday 11-1 month (11 ) 'Oct 17 'Oct 17 2 Note: "Roll Yield Over Time" charts show commodity futures roll yields from the front to the second month over time at specified dates. Charts called "Roll Yields Along the Curve" show the roll yields when rolling between the specified contracts. 21

22 Agriculture (continued) Bloomberg Soybean Oil Subindex.% -.2% -.4% -.6% -.8% -1.% -1.2% -1.4% -1.6% -1.8% Feb Apr Jun Oct Dec 1 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average Soybean Oil Futures.% -.1% -.2% -.3% -.4% -.5% -.6% -.7% -.8% -.9% -1.% ' 'Aug ' 'Sep 'Aug 'Oct 'Sep 'Jan 16 'Dec Thursday 11-1 month (11 ) ' 'Oct 16 'Sep 16 2 Bloomberg Soybeans Subindex 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % -4% Feb Apr Jun Oct Dec 1 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average Soybeans Futures 3.5% 3.% 2.5% 2.% 1.5% 1.%.5%.% -.5% -1.% -1.5% ' 'Aug ' 'Sep 'Aug 'Nov 'Sep 'Mar 16 'Jan 16 Thursday 11-1 month (11 ) ' 'Jan 17 'Nov 16 2 Bloomberg Sugar Subindex 4% 2% % -4% -6% -8% -1% -12% -14% -16% Feb Apr Jun Sep 1 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average Sugar Futures % -4% -6% -8% -1% -12% -14% 'Oct 'Oct 'Mar 16 'Mar 'Oct 16 'Oct 16 Thursday 11-1 month (11 ) Bloomberg Wheat Subindex.5%.% -.5% -1.% -1.5% -2.% -2.5% -3.% -3.5% -4.% -4.5% Feb Apr Jun Aug Nov 1 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average Wheat Futures.% -1.% -2.% -3.% -4.% -5.% -6.% ' ' 'Mar 16 'Dec ' #N/A 'Sep 'Dec 'Sep 'Jul 'Jul 17 2 Thursday 11-1 month (11 ) Note: "Roll Yield Over Time" charts show commodity futures roll yields from the front to the second month over time at specified dates. Charts called "Roll Yields Along the Curve" show the roll yields when rolling between the specified contracts. 22

23 Livestock Bloomberg Lean Hogs Subindex % 1% 5% % -5% -1% -% -25% Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep Nov 1 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average Lean Hogs Futures 25% 2% % 1% 5% % -5% -1% ' ' ' ' ' 'Aug Thursday 11-1 month (11 ) 'Oct 'Aug 'Feb 16 'Dec Bloomberg Live Cattle Subindex 8% 6% 4% 2% % -4% -6% Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 1 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average Energy Bloomberg Brent Crude Subindex 2.%.% Live Cattle Futures 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% % % % ' ' ' ' 'Dec 'Dec 'Aug 'Aug 'Oct 'Oct 'Apr 16 'Apr 16 Thursday 11-1 month (11 ) Brent Oil Futures 1.% -.5%.% -1.% -1.% -2.% -3.% -4.% -5.% Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 1 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average % -2.% -2.5% ' 'Aug ' 'Sep 'Aug 'Oct 'Sep 'Dec 'Nov 2 ' 'Jun 'Jun 'Apr 17 Thursday 11-1 month (11 ) 'Apr 17 'Apr 18 'Mar 18 Bloomberg WTI Crude Oil Subindex WTI Oil Futures 3% 2% 1% % -1% -3% -4% -5% -6% -7% -8% Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec 1 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average % -.5% -1.% -1.5% -2.% -2.5% -3.% 2 ' 'Jun 16 ' ' 'Oct 'Sep 'Aug 'Sep 'Aug 'Dec 'Nov 'Jun 'Apr 17 Thursday 11-1 month (11 ) 'Apr 'Apr 'Mar 18 Note: "Roll Yield Over Time" charts show commodity futures roll yields from the front to the second month over time at specified dates. Charts called "Roll Yields Along the Curve" show the roll yields when rolling between the specified contracts. 23

24 Energy (continued) Bloomberg Natural Gas Subindex 1% 5% % -5% -1% -% Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec 1 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average Natural Gas Futures % -4% -6% -8% -1% 'Aug ' ' 'Oct 'Sep 'Sep 'Aug 'Dec 'Nov 2 ' 'Jun 16 'Jun 'Apr 17 Thursday 11-1 month (11 ) 4 6 'Apr 'Apr 'Mar Bloomberg Unleaded Gasoline Subindex 1% 5% % -5% -1% -% -25% Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec 1 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average Gasoline Futures 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % ' 'Aug ' 'Oct 'Sep 'Sep 'Aug 'Dec 'Nov 2 ' 'Jun 16 'Jun 'Apr 17 Thursday 11-1 month (11 ) 'Apr 'Apr 'Mar 18 Bloomberg Heating Oil Subindex 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% % -1% -1% -3% -3% Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec 1 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average Industrial Metals Bloomberg Aluminum Subindex.% -.2% -.4% -.6% -.8% -1.% -1.2% -1.4% -1.6% -1.8% -2.% Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec 1 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average Heating Oil Futures.% -2.%.% -.2% -.4% -.6% -.8% -1.% -1.2% -1.4% -1.6% -1.8% -2.% 2 ' 'Jun 16 ' ' 'Oct 'Sep 'Aug 'Sep 'Aug 'Dec 'Nov 'Jun Aluminum Futures 'Apr 17 Thursday 11-1 month (11 ) ' ' ' 'Sep 'Aug 'Jun 'Jul 'Aug 'Nov 'Oct 16 2 'Apr 'Apr 'Apr 'Mar Thursday 11-1 month (11 ) 'Apr 'Apr 'Mar 'Apr 17 'Mar 17 'Mar 18 'Feb 18 Note: "Roll Yield Over Time" charts show commodity futures roll yields from the front to the second month over time at specified dates. Charts called "Roll Yields Along the Curve" show the roll yields when rolling between the specified contracts. 24

25 Industrial Metals (continued) Bloomberg Copper Subindex.5%.4%.3%.2%.1%.% -.1% -.2% -.3% -.4% -.5% -.6% Feb Apr Jun Aug Nov 1 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average Copper Futures.6%.4%.2%.% -.2% -.4% -.6% 'Jul 'Sep 'Sep 'Dec 'Dec 'Mar 16 'Jul 'Sep 17 2 'Jul 17 Thursday 11-1 month (11 ) 2 4 'Sep 17 'Jul 17 'Dec 19 'Sep 19 Bloomberg Lead Subindex 1.%.8%.6%.4%.2%.% -.2% -.4% -.6% -.8% -1.% Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec 1 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average Lead Futures.% -.1% -.2% -.3% -.4% -.5% -.6% ' ' ' 'Sep 'Aug 'Jun 'Jul 'Aug 'Nov 'Oct Thursday 11-1 month (11 ) 4 6 'Apr 16 'Apr 17 'Mar 17 'Apr 16 'Apr 'Mar 17 'Mar 18 'Feb Bloomberg Nickel Subindex.4%.3%.2%.1%.% -.1% -.2% -.3% -.4% Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec 1 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average Nickel Futures.% -.5% -.1% -.% -.2% -.25% ' ' ' ' 'Aug ' 'Sep 'Aug ' ' 16 'Apr 16 'Nov 'Oct 16 'Apr 16 'Apr 17 'Mar 17 Thursday 11-1 month (11 ) 4 6 'Apr 17 'Mar 17 'Mar 18 'Feb 18 Bloomberg Tin Subindex.6%.5%.4%.3%.2%.1%.% -.1% -.2% Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec 1 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average Tin Futures.%.%.% -.1% -.1% -.1% -.1% -.1% -.2% ' ' ' ' ' 'Aug 'Sep 'Aug 'Nov 'Oct Thursday 11-1 month (11 ) ' ' 16 'Apr 16 2 Note: "Roll Yield Over Time" charts show commodity futures roll yields from the front to the second month over time at specified dates. Charts called "Roll Yields Along the Curve" show the roll yields when rolling between the specified contracts. 25

26 Industrial Metals (continued) Bloomberg Zinc Subindex.% -.2% -.4% -.6% -.8% -1.% -1.2% Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec 1 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average Precious Metals Bloomberg Gold Subindex.% -.1% -.2% -.3% -.4% -.5% -.6% -.7% -.8% -.9% Jan Mar May Jul Nov 1 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average %.% -.5% -.1% -.% -.2% Zinc Futures.1%.1%.% -.1% -.1% -.2% -.2% -.3% -.3% -.4% Gold Futures ' 'Aug ' ' ' 'Sep 'Aug 'Jun 'Jul 'Aug 'Nov 'Oct Thursday 11-1 month (11 ) ' 'Aug ' 'Oct ' 'Oct 'Dec 'Apr 'Apr 16 'Apr 17 'Mar 17 'Apr 16 'Apr 'Mar 17 'Mar 18 'Feb 'Dec 'Apr 16 Thursday 11-1 month (11 ) ' #N/A 'Apr 17 2 Bloomberg Silver Subindex.% -.1% -.2% -.3% -.4% -.5% -.6% -.7% Feb Apr Jun Aug Nov 1 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average Silver Futures.% -.1% -.2% -.3% -.4% -.5% -.6% -.7% 'Sep ' 'Dec ' 'Sep 'Jan 'Dec 'Mar 16 Thursday 11-1 month (11 ) ' 'Jul 17 'Mar 17 2 Bloomberg Platinum Subindex.% -.1% -.1% -.2% -.2% -.3% -.3% -.4% -.4% Mar Jun Sep Dec 1 Yrs Average 5 Yrs Average Platinum Futures.% -.5% -.1% -.% -.2% -.25% -.3% -.35% 'Oct 'Oct 'Jan 16 Thursday 11-1 month (11 ) 'Jan 16 Note: "Roll Yield Over Time" charts show commodity futures roll yields from the front to the second month over time at specified dates. Charts called "Roll Yields Along the Curve" show the roll yields when rolling between the specified contracts. 26

27 Commodity Monthly Matrix Explained Score based on unweighted sum of four fundamental/technical measures detailed below with each measure awarded a possible score of-1,, or 1 depending on whether variable is viewed as fundamentally negative, neutral or positive. Score ranging from-4 to +4. For commodities where data is not available or not relevant, scores are calculated on remaining variables and adjusted to the-4 to +4 scale. The score matrix is designed to highlight significant changes in key variables but should not be viewed as predictor of performance. The four fundamental/technical measures are as follow: - price vs. 2 days moving average: 1 when price is above 2dma and return is positive, -1 when price is below 2dma and return is negative, otherwise - % change in net positioning over the past month: 1 when % change is positive, -1 when % change is negative, when no change - % change in inventory level over the past 3 months: 1 when % is negative, -1 when % is positive, when no change - roll yield between the front and second month futures contracts: 1 when in backwardation, -1 when in contango, when no change CALENDAR ETF Securities - Recent Research Notes 18- Martin Arnold Patience Could Derail US Dollar Rally 2- Simona Gambarini Platinum and Palladium - Fundamentally Undervalued 23- Nitesh Shah Energy Wars: Battle of Technologies 25- Research Team Macro Outlook: Much Ado About Zero 9- Research Team In-Depth Research Note: Outlook Q2- - Tightening Supply Brightens Commodity Outlook in Face of Rising US Dollar 7- Nitesh Shah China Macro Monitor: Renminbi: The World's Next Reserve Currency? 28- Research Team Monthly Update - The Third Industrial Revolution The research notes are for qualified investors only. Key Reports Current Next release 1-1-Jul- USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates 9-13-Jul- EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook 1-7-Jul- OPEC OPEC Oil Market Report 11-1-Jul- IEA IEA Oil Market Report DISCLAIMER Important Information The analyses in the above tables are purely for information purposes. They do not reflect the performance of any ETF Securities' products. The futures and roll returns are not necessarily investable. General This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited ( ETFS UK ) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the FCA ). This communication is only targeted at qualified or professional investors. The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value. This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States. This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents. ETFSUKisrequiredbytheFCAtoclarifythatitisnotactingforyouinanywayinrelationtotheinvestmentorinvestmentactivitytowhichthiscommunicationrelates.Inparticular,ETFSUKwillnotprovideanyinvestmentservicestoyouand oradviseyouonthemeritsof,ormakeanyrecommendationtoyouinrelationto,thetermsofanytransaction. NorepresentativeofETFSUKisauthorisedtobehaveinanywaywhichwouldleadyoutobelieveotherwise.ETFSUKisnot, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit. 11