'FUNDAçAO ~~'.,.~ GETUlJO VARGAS. e Proi: Gregório Lowe Stukart. Coordenadores de Seminários de PesquisasIEPGE
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1 '.,. 'FUNDAçAO GETUlJO VARGAS Assunto: Smimirios Psquisa &onomica II (2 4 parte) Coordenadores: Prof. Fernando de H. Barbosa e Proi: Gregório Lowe Stukart Convidamos V.Sa. para participar do Seminário de Pesquisa Econômica II (2' parte) a 'a1i:ar-s na próxima Si feira: )ATA: 09/12/93 EioRÁRIO: 1:30h ÁlCAL: Auditório Eugo GudID 0 c:j3!1?â8 rema: "FLWt."O DE CAPITAl.r; EXTERNO.Ç, TENDtNCIAS RECENTE.Ç"- Dr. CJlIIldio Haddad (Banco Garantia). Rio de I_iro, 06 de dezembro de ImBIÍ Coordenadores de Seminários de PesquisasIEPGE
2 I WORLD TRENDS IN INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS Managing Capital Flows October 28, 1993
3 SOME FACTS ABOUT THE WORLD AND FIXED INCOME EQUITY MARKETS Total Estimated Volume of Funds Held by Institutionallnvestors and in Private Banking: Rate of Growth: Breakdown: USA Japan UK Switzerland Volume Invested in Emerging Markets: Total Latin America Mexico Growing Trend: US$ 10.5 trillion 3% p.a. $ 3.5 trillion $ 2.0 trillion $1.0 trillion $1.0 trillion $ 400 billion $ 50 billion $ 25 billion Internalization of Investments Emerging Markets Represent 140/0 of World 'GDP and 40/0 of World Portfolio Investments Maaagiag Capital Flows October 28, 1993
4 WORLD EQUITY MARKET Total World Market Capitalization of Listed Stocks at the End of 1992: Growth Rate: Breakdown: USA Japan UK Switzerland Emerging Markets: Total Latin America Mexico Brazil US$ trillion 12.6% p.a. for the period $ 4.8 trillion $ 2.4 trillion $ 0.8 trillion $ 0.2 trillion $ 800 billion $ 250 billion $ 139 billion $ 60 billion Emerging Markets Represent 140/0 of World GDP and 7% of Total 1992 World Market Capitalization. Managing Capital Flows October 28, 1993
5 EXTERNAL FINANCE TO DEVELOPING COUNTRIES Portfolio Equity 0.10/0 3.70/0 Bonds 1.2% 4.8% " Commercial Bank Loans 46.10/ /0 Suppliers and Export Credits 11.0% 12.30/0 Official Loans, Grants & Other 41.6% 61.8% Total 100.0% 100.0% ','-, TQlill.Jl.mQúnt } / <....)U $1. i \!J9n....y 2ºQ.ª.. SHliQn Source: World Bank.)
6 EXTERNAL FINANCE TO DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% PORTo EQUITIES BONDS COMM. BANK LOANS SUPP. EXP. CREDITS OFF. LOANS & OTHERS Source: World Bank 1981 Total Amount: US$ billion 1991 Total Amount: US$ billion
7 .11 'I US$ billion 35 GROSS PORTFOLlO FLOWS TO DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 30 I 25 t O Dired equity C"J I... " tt Cl - I!1 di 1 J! IJ::W lf;ul cnp 20 I ',. lo õ.1ifj.j.. ;!ll, _ ; _ fiii! IIUi.IL.I 'II,ft" ", 0:,-1,... "'" is :: t t; v-...m.immj 1 'r '-' II I," ri,, o, 4 -I' i:iiii" I1 '- 1 fr, df l Wl O Country funds O ADRslGDRs C ',J,,'I!I,!lJiI.,,.'":'.. '/i!fli ".',I II l,. Il',' " t,1 1 "''': ;i. ",:, ,r.iúI!rlli 1,1, li Bonds li Commercial paper = a Certificates of Deposit... 1" ':1i'. I 5 o Source: World Bank * AmericanJGlobal depositary receipls
8 Il ;'. RECENT TRENDS IN EXTERNAL FINANCING TO BRAZIL Manapng Capital Flows October 28, 1993
9 /. I. BRAZIL NATIONAL ACCOUNTS - SA VINGS OverGDP Average 70/ % 6.39% 21.87%1 Average 75/ % 5.31% 23.38%1 Average 80/ % 1.88% 16.46%1 Average 85/ % 0.50% 19.04% % 3.43% 20.75% % -0.37% 18.70% % -4.40% 20.60% 2.99% % 3.92% % 3.84% % 1.65% % 0.73% 21.48% 0.19% 18.89% -1.60% 19.00% Source: IBGE (1970 to 1987 and 1992) and IPEA (1988 to 1990) Savlngs for 1992 at8 pre/iminary
10 'l,. FOREIGN DEBT I GDP %GDP 40% T I 35% 30% 25%!TotalDebtl " IGDPI US$ BUlion % INet Deb % % 100 5% 50 0% I _ O Net Foreign Debt;: Total Foreign Debt -International Reserves - Est. Capital Flight
11 I, FOREIGN DEBT I CAPITAL STOCK 14.00% 12.00% /. ITotal X 3] 8.00% 6.00% /'.....] % t:... nnn '--no 2.00% I NetXs] 0.00% ll _----_ r_----_r X 3: Capital I Output ratio of 3 X 5: Capital I Output ratio of 5
12 FOREIGN FUNDS INFLOW CURRENCYLOANS % 11% 1992 INTERCOMPANIES fim COMMERCIAl PAPER SONOS & NOTES.BANKlOANS 16% li INTERCOMPANIES O COMMERCIAl PAPER li BONOS & NOTES mil BANK loans 96%
13 " lo "p.m OVERNIGHT INTEREST RATES VS. DAILY CR$/US$ DEVALUATION RATES 40: Cr$JUs$ Oaily Oevaluation Rate II I I T"" T"" T"" T"" T"" T"" T"" T"" T"" N N N N N N N N N N N (\') (\') (\') (\') (\') C") (\') C") C") O> O> O> O> O> O> O> O> O> O> O> O> O> O> O> O> O> O> O> O> O> O> O> O> O> O> O> I I I I I.!. >. i:;,.!.. I I I I I I I I I I I I c: O) '3 a. 13 o c: >. c: O) '3 a. 13 o c: g >. c: O) a. a. cu ::l ::l cu Q) cu cu ::l ::l Q) cu cu a. cu ::l ::l ::l :E...,..., (J) O z..., :E :E...,..., O z..., LL :E :E...,..., I Source: Andima/Central Bank
14 I. lo COIIUS$ 50% REAL CRUZEIRO INTERBANK INTEREST RATES ANNUAL RATE ABOVE THE US DOLLAR DEVALUATION (12-month moving average) 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% r p) CO) CO) CO) ! Q. c: g) ::J c(., 8! s; N.Q CD IL. Q. c( s; I c: Q ::J., N G,) G,).Q CD U.! G,) Q. c: Q ::J ::J c(., cc
15 I, te REAL CRUZEIRO INTERBANK INTEREST RATES ANNUAL RATE ABOVE THE US DOLLAR DEVALUATION CDI/US$ 70% 60% 15% maxi devaluation 500k 40'k 30% 20% 10% O'k -10% -20% -30'1. -40% -50% -60% -70% '- C a. ::J c(.,... Q ::J c(... O... g N CU &L N! :., ::J C Q N C") 3!. C") '! a. CC C") C ::J., ('I) Q ::J CC ('I) 8
16 I, i. USS Million FOREIGN EXCHANGE CONTRACT EXECUTIONS vs. CENTRAL BANK FOREIGN RESERVES USS Billion o o Nel Daily Avg. Commercial w Nel Daily Avg. Financiai ---- Brazitian Cumulaliye Foreign Currency Reserves Note: Foreign Reserves figures for Sep-93 are preliminary Source: Central Bank
17 cn o c: ;; G)... f. til i 5' c: Ao.. I ī li! J.. I -o o Sl o Ir..... I 29-Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug-92 9-Sep I :7!\. I i\jj 7-Oct-92 + I I 4-Nov-92 + Yl 2-Dec-92 3O-Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun-93 t f J 14-Jul-93 8 \<r Ir UI 8 ;, 8.. " I: o - cn m :D r- m "... = m ta C ti ti' lu :J Ao. ",.! - r :.. 2 c: ta ti' -I O 2 lu " C,. -,. Ci' e m c cn cn cn ' '1-Aug-93 8-Sep ct-93 I 8 z c 6 c: z E aj aj r- i aj ; Z
18 I, EQUITY MARKET IN BRAZIL - As ofseptember 30'1993 Market Breakdown US$ Billion % 11_1 11 :11_ íl@ QQp. - Controlling Shareholders Pension Funds Mutual Funds Foreign Investors Financiai Institutions Individuais Other
19 f, MARKET P ARTICIP ATION (Trading Volume) JAN - SEP93 Market Breakdown - Individuais - Institutional - Foreign Investors - Corporate Investors - Financiallnstitutions k Source: Bovespa
20 INFLATION 90% 80%......: : ] ]: :lr.: l 1 I l _... _... 70% 60% 50% É Q. 40% ';it. 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% IGP-DI --- IPC-FIPE
21 N.Cham. P/EPGE SPE H126f Autor: Haddad, Claudio L. S. (Claudio L Título: Fluxo de capitais externos tendências recentes FGV - BMHS N Pat.: F 163/
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