ABI MONTHLY REPORT 1 January 2017 (Main evidence)

Transcription

1 ABI MONTHLY REPORT 1 January 2017 (Main evidence) LOANS AND DEPOSITS 1. At the end of 2016, loans to customers granted by banks operating in Italy, totalling 1,807.7 billion euro (cf. Table 1) was nearly 132 billion higher than the total amount of customer deposits, totalling 1,676.1 billion euro (cf. Table 2). BANK LENDING PERFORMANCE 2. The data for December 2016 show that loans to households and businesses were up year-over-year by 1.4%, up from the 0.8% in the previous month, confirming the upward trend in the stock of loans. This result is derived from our estimates based on data published by the Bank of Italy relating to loans to households and businesses (calculated including loans not shown in the financial statements of banks because they have been securitized and net of variations unrelated to transactions, e.g. changes due to fluctuations in exchange rates, value adjustments or reclassification) (cf. Table 1). 3. The latest official data available, which refer to November 2016, confirm a recovery in mortgages, also in outstanding loans, after an initial surge in new mortgage loans. The total outstanding loans to households posted a +1.7% increase compared to November 2015 (when there were already signs of improvement). LENDING INTEREST RATES 4. In December 2016, interest rates on loans to customers continued to decrease: the average rate on total loans was 2.85%, a new record low (it was 2.91% the previous month and 6.18% prior to the onset of the crisis, at the end of 2007). 5. The average rate on new transactions for house purchasing was 2.02%, a new record low (against 2.05% in November 2016 and 5.72% at the end of 2007). Approximately two-thirds of total new loans are fixed rate (cf. Table 3). The average rate for new business loans was 1.54% compared to 1.56% in the previous month (5.48% at the end of 2007). CREDIT QUALITY 6. Net non-performing loans (i.e. net of the write-downs already made by the banks against own resources) at the end of November 2016 total 85.2 billion euro, slightly down on the October figure (85.5 billion). This confirms 1 The ABI monthly report makes available a series of quantitative information before any other survey regarding the same data. This is possible because the banks themselves have produced this information. 1

2 the over 4% reduction in net non-performing loans compared to the high of 89 billion at the end of November 2015 (cf. Table 4). 7. The ratio of net non-performing loans to total loans was 4.80% in November 2016, in line with October 2016 (4.91% at the end of 2015; 0.86% before the onset of the crisis). CUSTOMER FUNDING TREND 8. In Italy deposits (current accounts, certificates of deposit, repurchase agreements) increased at the end of December 2016, by about 54.6 billion euro compared to the previous year (+4.2%, yoy), while medium and long term funding, i.e. through bonds, continued to decrease, by about 77 billion euro, in absolute terms, over the last 12 months (-19.9%). The trend of total funding (deposits from resident customers + bonds) showed a yoy decrease, at the end of 2016, of -1.3% compared to -1.2% in the previous month (cf. Table 2). Since late 2007, before the onset of the crisis, to date, customers deposits rose from 1,513 to 1,676.1 billion euro, an increase - in absolute terms - of more than 163 billion euro. INTEREST RATES ON DEPOSITS 9. In December 2016, the average interest rate on total bank funding from customers (the sum of deposits, bonds and repurchase agreements in euro from households and non-financial companies) in Italy stood at 0.97% (1% the previous month and down from 2.89% at the end of 2007) as a result of: the rate charged on deposits (current accounts, savings deposits and certificates of deposits) which stood at 0.40% (0.41% in November); the rate on repurchase agreements which stood at 1.18% (1.22% in November); the bond yield which stood at 2.75%, unchanged from the previous month (cf. Table 5). SPREAD BETWEEN THE LENDING RATE AND DEPOSIT RATE 10. The spread between the average lending rate and the average rate on household and non-financial companies deposits in Italy remains at particularly low levels at 188 basis points at the end of December 2016 (191 basis points the previous month) and a sharp decrease over the more than 300 basis points prior to the onset of the crisis (329 basis points at the end of 2007). On average, in 2016 the spread was 198 basis points (212 bps in 2015). 2

3 Table 1 Lending of the banks in Italy (except interbank) 1 Total lending Private sector and PA * Private sector * Of which: to households and non-financial companies M yoy (1) M yoy (1) M yoy (1) Dec-14 1,828,423 n/a 1,557, ,404,196 n/a Jan-15 1,823, ,554, ,408, Feb-15 1,815, ,546, ,403, Mar-15 1,827, ,556, ,408, Apr-15 1,819, ,548, ,405, May-15 1,818, ,545, ,402, Jun-15 1,838, ,562, ,419, Jul-15 1,830, ,559, ,419, Aug-15 1,817, ,547, ,408, Sep-15 1,820, ,551, ,412, Oct-15 1,812, ,546, ,412, Nov-15 1,830, ,563, ,424, Dec-15 1,824, ,552, ,413, Jan-16 1,820, ,547, ,410, Feb-16 1,818, ,544, ,409, Mar-16 1,819, ,547, ,407, Apr-16 1,810, ,540, ,402, May-16 1,816, ,545, ,410, Jun-16 1,816, ,550, ,412, Jul-16 1,809, ,544, ,409, Aug-16 1,799, ,536, ,405, Sep-16 1,804, ,541, ,406, Oct-16 1,797, ,536, ,405, Nov-16 1,801, ,541, ,410, Dec-16 1,807, ,544, ,406, Notes: latest month of SI-ABI estimates. * Including gross non-performing loans and reverse repurchase agreements. Private sector: non-financial companies, consumer and producer households, non-profit entities, other financial institutions, insurance companies and pension funds. The data are netted against central counterparties operations. (1) Variations recalculated to include loans not recognised in the bank balance sheets in that they were securitised and are net of variations not related to the transactions (e.g. variations resulting from exchange rate fluctuations, value adjustments or reclassifications) Source: Data processed by the Ufficio Analisi Economiche ABI on data of the Bank of Italy and SI-ABI 3

4 Table 2 Deposits and bonds from bank customers in Italy Funding (deposits and bonds) Resident customers deposits 1 Bonds 2 M yoy M yoy M yoy Dec-14 1,707, ,263, , Jan-15 1,708, ,267, , Feb-15 1,695, ,263, , Mar-15 1,696, ,267, , Apr-15 1,694, ,270, , May-15 1,698, ,283, , Jun-15 1,687, ,277, , Jul-15 1,674, ,274, , Aug-15 1,674, ,276, , Sep-15 1,678, ,285, , Oct-15 1,694, ,305, , Nov-15 1,678, ,290, , Dec-15 1,698, ,312, , Jan-16 1,683, ,309, , Feb-16 1,668, ,303, , Mar-16 1,673, ,315, , Apr-16 1,691, ,337, , May-16 1,672, ,323, , Jun-16 1,664, ,320, , Jul-16 1,676, ,338, , Aug-16 1,660, ,328, , Sep-16 1,653, ,330, , Oct-16 1,667, ,345, , Nov-16 1,659, ,343, , Dec-16 1,676, ,367, , Notes: latest month of SI-ABI estimates. 1 Deposits from ordinary private resident customers, excluding MFI and Central Public Authorities. It includes current accounts, preestablished term deposits, notice refundable deposits and repurchase agreements. The data are netted against operations with central counterparties, deposits with agreed maturity connected with receivables assignment transactions. 2 Recorded at nominal value and expressed in euro, they include subordinated liabilities and do not include bonds purchased from banks. They refer to resident and non-resident customers. Source: Data processed by the Ufficio Analisi Economiche ABI on data of the Bank of Italy and SI-ABI 4

5 Table 3 Italy: bank interest rates on lending and benchmark yields Bank interest rates on loans in euro to households and non-financial companies in Italy (Monthly average - % figures) Interbank rates for the Eurozone 3-Month interbank rates Dec Yields at the issue of Italian bank bonds (rate s initial term over 1 year) Of w hich: to Of w hich: Of w hich: to nonfinancial households for Benchmark the purchase of rate ECB 2 3-Month 10-year total 1 positive CA and revolving loans companies (new houses Euribor IRS transactions) (new USA Japan UK transactions) Dec Dec Dec Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec n/a Notes: for bank rates, latest month of SI-ABI estimates 1 Weighted average rate, data processed by Ufficio Analisi Economiche ABI. 2 End of period data Source: Data processed by the Ufficio Analisi Economiche ABI on data from the Bank of Italy and SI-ABI 5

6 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Table 4 Non-performing loans in the Italian banking system Net nonperforming loans Net non-performing Net non-performing loans on capital loans 1 on total lending 2 and reserves M % figures 84, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , % figures , Entry into force of the new regulatory statistic reporting requirements, starting in December 2008, determined a discontinuance of the historical series of net non-performing loans (at realisable value) due to the new reporting criteria for write-downs. 2 The figure for lending includes existing loans and net non-performing loans. 3 Before write-downs. Source: Data processed by the Ufficio Analisi Economiche ABI on data from the Bank of Italy. 6

7 Deposits in euro Table 5 Italy: interest rates for investors (Monthly average - % figures) Bank interest rates: households and non-financial companies Deposits in CA in euro (ESCB harmonised statistics) Repurchase agreements Bonds Funding (deposits, repos and bonds) 1 Gross yield of Government bonds in the secondary market BOT CCT CTZ BTP Yield at issue of postal deposits Ordinary savings books Average annual yield on 5th year Average annual yield on 20th year Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Note: for banking data latest available month for SI-ABI estimates 1 Weighted average rate, data processed by Ufficio Analisi Economiche ABI. Source: Data processed by the Ufficio Analisi Economiche ABI on data of the Bank of Italy and SI-ABI 7