CHART 2 - N. Kona Residential Median Price vs Number Sold Since 1997
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1 GRIGGS REPORT #257 - APRIL 15, 218 A TWICE MONTHLY REAL ESTATE MARKET PERSPECTIVE FOR NORTH KONA AND HAWAII ISLAND PAGE 1 NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL DATA ABOUT THE PENDING RATIO:: The Pending Ratio is used throughout the report to serve as an indicator of Market Strength and Market Trend.. PENDING RATIO = NUMBER OF PENDING SALES DIVIDED BY ACTIVE LISTING TIMES 1. THE HIGHER RATIO = STRONGER MARKET DEMAND (Pending Sales) vs. SUPPLY (Active Listings). Why this can be a useful indicator: 1) It is a current leading indicator of market Demand vs. Supply Dynamics based on Pending Sales (Ac & U) and Active listings (A) from MLS Data. 2) It is a readily available data that indicates market strength. When tracked over time it shows the market strength trend. 3) It can be used as a "Litmus Test" of market strength for any market niche with sufficient MLS active listing and pending sales data. The following Color Codes describe what the ratio numbers mean in terms of the type of market. PEAK MARKET - Signals the End of the Real Estate Cycle is eminent PENDING RATIO 1 or GREATER PEAK SELLERS MARKET - PENDING RATIO FROM 51 TO 99 SELLER'S NEUTRAL OR STABLE MARKET - PENDING RATIO FROM 3 TO 5 NEUTRAL BUYERS MARKET - PENDING RATIO BELOW 3 BUYER'S NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL DATA TABLE TABLE 1 ACTIVE PENDING PENDING TYPE OF Number Sold Average VOLUME Median # SOLD to $4M LISTINGS SALES RATIO MARKET 12 Month Period Price MILLIONS Price Last 3 days 4/15/ no data no data no data 253 $ 274,2 $ 69.4 $ 23, 24 4/15/ BUYER'S 253 $ 275,6 $ 69.7 $ 235, 26 4/15/ PRICE LOW >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> 351 $ 277,4 $ 97.4 $ 225, 27 4/15/ SELLER'S 463 $ 318,6 $ $ 25, 39 4/15/ NEUTRAL 449 $ 357,3 $ 16.4 $ 265, 38 4/15/ NEUTRAL 53 $ 367,3 $ $ 289,5 56 4/15/ SELLER'S 538 $ 384,9 $ 27.1 $ 333, 5 4/15/ DEMAND PEAK 685 $ 49,3 $ $ 412,5 64 4/15/ PEAK 662 $ 613,4 $ 46.1 $ 525, 6 4/15/ NEUTRAL 66 $ 728,6 $ 48.9 $ 625, 47 4/15/ PRICE PEAK >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> 453 $ 764,8 $ $ 625, 46 4/15/ DEMAND LOW 342 $ 73,9 $ 24.7 $ 599,5 32 4/15/ BUYER'S 211 $ 629,1 $ $ 55, 21 4/15/ NEUTRAL 318 $ 487,1 $ $ 4, 32 4/15/ NEUTRAL 377 $ 473, $ $ 43, 35 4/15/ PRICE LOW >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> 44 $ 452,6 $ $ 365,6 41 4/15/ SELLER'S 426 $ 55,3 $ $ 44,1 39 4/15/ NEUTRAL 464 $ 579,1 $ $ 454,7 38 4/15/ NEUTRAL 414 $ 664,1 $ $ 55, 49 4/15/ BUYER'S 433 $ 79,5 $ 37.2 $ 56, 35 4/15/ SELLER'S 467 $ 694,17 $ $ 585, 42 4/15/ SELLER'S 512 $ 757,8 $ 388. $ 622, ' vs 18' -25% 3% 37% 1% 9% 2% 29% TABLE 1 & Chart 1- THE RESIDENTIAL PENDING RATIO HAS REACHED A RECOVERY HIGH OF 74. THIS INDICATOR OF STRONG DEMAND COMPARED TO SUPPLY MAY SLACKEN A BIT AS WE MOVE OUT OF THE PEAK WINTER MARKET. CHART 1 SHOWS HOW THE PRICE HAS BEEN RELATIVELY STABLE IN THE BROADER MARKET SINCE LAST OCTOBER. THE YEAR OVER YEAR PRICE INCREASE IS Chart 1 - Kona Residential Median Price (thous) & Pending Ratio - Past 2 Years Res-Median Price Res Pending Ratio $64 $625 $625 $618 $62 $616 $615 $62 8 $623 $62 7 5/31/ BUYER'S 419 $ 717, $ 3.4 $ 565, 38 $593 $6 $575 $58 $581 $585 6 $56 $565 $57 5 $58 4 $56 3 $54 2 $52 1 $5 CHART 2 - BACK IN 24 THE NUMBER OF SALES START TO DECLINE. IT WASN'T UNTIL TWO YEARS LATER THAT THE PRICE STARTED TO FALL. IT IS THIS CHANGE IN THE NUMBER SOLD TREND THAT WILL BE THE LEADING INDICATOR OF THE APPROACHING END OF THIS CURRENT CYCLE $7, $6, $5, $4, $23, $235, $225, $25, $265, $289,5 $3, $2, $1, CHART 2 - N. Kona Residential Median Price vs Number Sold Since 1997 Median Price Number Sold $625, $625, $525, $412,5 $333, $599,5 $55, $454,7 $4, $43, $365,6 $44,1 $55, $56, $585, $622,5
2 PAGE 2 TABLE 2 NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL PRICE NORTH NORTH RANGE KONA KONA DATA RESIDENTIAL RESIDENTIAL ACTIVE AND PRICE PENDING PRICE RANGE RANGE DATA SALES DATA PLUS ANNUAL NUMBER SOLD COMPARISON KONA RESIDENTIAL NUMBER AVERAGE PRICE RANGE ACTIVE PRICE PENDING PRICE PENDING VOL RATIO GAIN or LOSS TO $ 4, 7 $ 312,6 9 $ 325,4 $ $ 41, $ 5, 9 $ 455, 14 $ 462,8 $ $ 51, $ 7, 3 $ 61,6 45 $ 6, $ $71, $ 9, 28 $799,8 25 $ 814, $ $ 91, $ 1,5, 36 $ 1,214,6 16 $ 1,199,1 $ $1.5M $ 4.M 44 $ 2,124,7 5 $ 2,471,2 $ $4.1 M or GREATER 27 $ 6,988,7 2 $ 7,697,5 $ THE PIE CHARTS CLEALY ILLUSTRATES THE INCREASING TREND OF HOME SALES TOWARD THE HIGHER PRICE RANGES. THE KONA RESIDENTIAL MARKET IS HOT FOR HOMES PRICED BELOW $7, ACCORDING TO THE PENDING RATIO DATA. THE $7K TO $9K MARKET IS ALSO QUITE STRONG WITH PENDING RATIO OF 89. TABLE 3 HI ISLE RES NUMBER LOW HIGH AVERAGE MEDIAN MODE VOLUME (M) PENDING Table 2 & Pie Charts, ACCORDING TO THE LISTING DATA THERE IS STILL SUBSTANTIAL OVER SUPPLY IN THE $1.5M AND HIGHER PRICE LEVELS. FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE DOING THE PIE CHART WE SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN YEAR OVER YEAR 217 Percentage Sold by Price Range 218 Percentage Sold by Price Range 13% 4% 5% 8% 1 TO $4, $41, $5, $51, $7, $71, $9, $91, $1,5, $1.5M $ 4.M 14% 14% TO $4, $41, $5, $51, $7, $71, $9, 18% $4.1 M or GREATER $91, $1,5, 3 18% 3 $1.5M $ 4.M $4.1 M or GREATER TABLE 3 HI ISLE RES NUMBER LOW HIGH AVERAGE MEDIAN MODE VOLUME (M) PENDING 3-1 TO 3-4 ACTIVE 517 $29,9 $9,5, $475,838 $324,9 $225, $ 246 RATIO ALL EAST HI PENDING 249 $24, $1,295, $325,56 $265, $265, $ 81 RESIDENTIAL SOLD YTD 349 $18, $1,5, $275,835 $249, $225, $ TO 3-9 ACTIVE 489 $25, $18,995, $1,591,366 $788, N/A $ 778 ALL WEST HI PENDING 256 $15, $8,9, $815,54 $67,5 $999, $ 29 RESIDENTIAL SOLD YTD 322 $5, $27,5, $973,76 $572, $575, $ ALL HI ISLE ACTIVE 16 $25, $18,995, $1,18,78 $475, $349, $ 1,24 ALL HI ISLE PENDING 55 $15, $8,9, $573,679 $395, N/A $ 29 ALL HI ISLE SOLD YTD 671 $5, $27,5, $61,73 $339,5 $225, $ RESIDENTIAL SOLD 12MONTH 12mn sales LOW HIGH AVERAGE $ MEDIAN $ MODE VOLUME (M) BIG ISLAND ACTIVE, PENDING SALES AND SALES YEAR TO DATE CHART 4 - West HI, East HI and Hawaii Island - Residential Pending Ratio over the Past Two Years West Hawaii Ratio East Hawaii Ratio Big Is Res Ratio CHART 4 - THE HAWAII ISLAND PENDING RATIO IS SHOWING A SEASONAL LEVELING OFF AFTER A STRONG JANUARY THROUGH MARCH UPSWING.
3 PAGE 3 BIG ISLAND DISTRESSED RESIDENTIAL PROPERTIES TREND CHART 5 - Percentage of Total MLS Active, Pending or 9 sales Listings that are Short Sales or REO 1 14% 12% 1% 8% N. KONA 3-7 WAIKOLOA WAIMEA 3-6-4,5,6 S HILO 3-2 PUNA 3-1 4% 2% % 4/15/17 5/15/17 6/15/17 7/15/17 8/15/17 9/15/17 1/15/17 11/15/17 12/15/17 1/15/18 2/15/18 3/15/18 4/15/18 CHART 5: THE PERCENTAGE OF MLS LISTING THAT ARE REO OR SHORT SALES IS PROBABLY THE BEST INDICATOR OF THE DISTRESS PROPERTY TREND. THE AVERAGE OF THESE MARKET AREAS IS UNCHANGED FROM LAST YEAR AT 1 % OF LISTINGS BEING REO OR SHORT SALES. IT IS WELL BELOW THE 4% OF 212. Chart 6 - REO Properties By District, Total Number Held by: FANNIE MAE -- Deutsche Bank -- Wells Fargo -- Bank of America REO's # of 45 REO Properties 4 35 S Kona, Kau 3 25 N Kona 2 15 S Kohala 1 5 S Hilo Puna CHART 6: THESE ARE BANK OWNED PROPERTIES TAKEN FROM TMK DATA. OVERALL NUMBERS IN THE SURVEY ARE DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM LAST YEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH KOHALA.
4 PAGE 4 NORTH KONA CONDO DATA TABLE 4 ACTIVE PENDING PENDING TYPE OF Number Sold AVERAGE VOLUME MEDIAN # SOLD to $1.5M RATIO MARKET 12 Month Period Price MILLIONS Price 3 days 4/15/1997 no data no data no data no data 311 $ 144,4 $ 45 $ 113,9 25 4/15/1998 no data no data no data PRICE LOW >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> 324 $ 127,1 $ 41 $ 111,7 32 4/15/ NEUTRAL 38 $ 136,3 $ 52 $ 115, 37 4/15/ SELLLER'S 492 $ 153,4 $ 75 $ 135, 52 4/15/ SELLLER'S 464 $ 174, $ 81 $ 143, 41 4/15/ SELLLER'S 375 $ 194,9 $ 73 $ 159, 43 4/15/ PEAK 538 $ 27, $ 111 $ 186,5 49 4/15/ DEMAND PEAK 67 $ 248,1 $ 151 $ 22, 5 4/15/ PEAK 629 $ 341,9 $ 215 $ 32, 57 4/15/ PRICE PEAK >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> 634 $ 449,8 $ 285 $ 49,5 43 4/15/ BUYER'S 334 $ 425,4 $ 142 $ 394,9 21 4/15/ DEMAND LOW 244 $ 43,1 $ 98 $ 342,5 25 4/15/ DEMAND LOW 159 $ 339,6 $ 54 $ 315, 15 4/15/ NEUTRAL 2 $ 245,9 $ 49 $ 225, 17 4/15/ NEUTRAL 33 $ 221,1 $ 67 $ 177,5 24 4/15/ PRICE LOW >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> 32 $ 21,7 $ 61 $ 163,5 32 4/15/ NEUTRAL 333 $ 231,5 $ 77 $ 25, 31 4/15/ NEUTRAL 365 $ 254,1 $ 93 $ 229, 41 4/15/ NEUTRAL 361 $ 274,9 $ 99 $ 249,9 36 4/15/ BUYER'S 346 $ 29, $ 1 $ 265, 37 4/15/ SELLLER'S ,8 $ 117 $ 285, 34 4/15/ SELLER"S 442 $ 321,3 $ 142 $ 298, ' vs 18' -1-4% 14% 19% 2% 22% 5% 21% CHART 7 - CONDO DATA IS ALSO COMING IN STRONG WITH DEMINISHED SUPPLY AND GOOD PENDING SALES NUMBERS. IN CHART 7 WE SEE MEDIAN PRICE RESUMING IT'S CLIMB. THE PENDING RATIO HAS BEEN MOVING HIGHER SINCE THE FIRST OF THE YEAR. IF THE PENDING RATIO CONTINU ES ITS STEEP UPWARD TREND IT IS LIKELY PRICES WILL MOVE HIGHER. Chart 7 - Kona Condo Median Price( thous) & Pending Ratio - Past 2 Years $31 Median Price Condo Pending Ratio $3 $29 $285 $285 $287 $288 $29 $29 $29 $29 $279 $28 $265 $27 $27 $273 $275 $27 $26 $25 $24 7 $ CHART 8 - THE MEDIAN PRICE AND NUMBER SOLD TREND REMAIN POSITIVE. THEY ARE WELL BELOW THE LEVELS OF THE LAST MARKET PEAK. THIS SUGGEST CHART 8 - NORTH KONA CONDO MEDIAN PRICE vs NUMBER SOLD $45, $4, $35, $3, $25, $2, $15, $1, $5, $186,5 $159, $135, $143, $113,9 $111,7 $115, MEDIAN Price $22, $32, $49,5 Number Sold 12 Month Period $394,9 $342,5 $315, $298,8 $285, $265, $249,9 4 $225, $229, $25, 3 $177,5 $163,5 2 1
5 PAGE 5 NORTH KONA LAND DATA TABLE 5 PENDING PENDING TYPE OF Number Sold Average VOLUME Median # SOLD to $1.5M ACTIVE SALES RATIO MARKET 12 Month Period Price MILLIONS Price Last 3 days 4/15/1997 no data #VALUE! no data no data 94 $ 176,2 $ 16.6 $ 14, 16 4/15/1998 no data #VALUE! no data no data 15 $ 181,4 $ 27.2 $ 116,5 13 4/15/ PRICE LOW >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 144 $ 164,7 $ 23.7 $ 114,5 14 4/15/ NEUTRAL 269 $ 167,6 $ 45.1 $ 12, 32 4/15/ BUYER'S 262 $ 219,5 $ 57.5 $ 181, 16 4/15/ NEUTRAL 223 $ 178,9 $ 39.9 $ 139, 33 4/15/ Seller's 28 $ 216,6 $ 6.6 $ 168, 23 4/15/ DEMAND PEAK 311 $ 286,8 $ 89.2 $ 254, 36 4/15/ PEAK 21 $ 385,7 $ 81. $ 332,5 7 4/15/ PRICE PEAK >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 15 $ 54,8 $ 81.1 $ 477,5 14 4/15/ BUYER'S 81 $ 51, $ 4.6 $ 47, 7 4/15/ DEMAND LOW 57 $ 459,3 $ 26.2 $ 388, 6 4/15/ BUYER'S 41 $ 366,7 $ 15. $ 295, 5 4/15/ BUYER'S 47 $ 31,8 $ 14.2 $ 27, 4 4/15/ BUYER'S 71 $ 225,9 $ 16. $ 187, 12 4/15/ BUYER'S 6 $ 33,7 $ 18.2 $ 194,5 7 4/15/ BUYER'S 16 $ 231,8 $ 24.6 $ 188,3 13 4/15/ PRICE LOW >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 147 $ 259,2 $ 38.1 $ 178, 9 4/15/ BUYER'S 159 $ 425,7 $ 67.7 $ 269,1 1 4/15/ BUYER'S 15 $ 437,4 $ 45.9 $ 28, 1 4/15/ BUYER'S 91 $ 371,6 $ 33.8 $ 31, 9 4/15/ BUYER'S 126 $ 343,7 $ 43.3 $ 289,5 1 17' vs 18' -19% -3-22% 38% -8% 28% -7% 11% TABLE 7 and CHART 9 - THE LAND DATA IS STILL SHOWING SOME WEAKNESS IN BOTH PENDING RATIO AND PRICE DIRECTION COMPARED TO A YEAR AGO. THE MOST ENCOURAGING STAT IS THE NUMBER OF SALES IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS, UP +38%. THIS CAUSED AND INCREASE OF $1M IN VOLUME OVER LAST YEARS VOLUME $299 $27 Chart 9 - Kona Land Median Price (thous) & Pending Ratio Past 2 Years LAND-Median Price LAND Ratio $275 $29 $299 $31 $38 $3 $298 $3 $293 $32 $31 $3 $3 $29 $29 $29 $28 $27 5. $26. $25 CHART 1 - NORTH KONA LAND MEDIAN PRICE vs NUMBER SOLD Median Price Number Sold 35 $6, $181, $168, $14, $139, $116,5 $114,5 $12, $254, $332,5 $477,5 $47, $388, $295, $27, $187, $194,5 $188,3 $178, $269,1 $28, $31, $5, $4, $289,5 $3, $2, $1, CHART 1 - HERE AGAIN WE SEE AT THE END OF A CYCLE THE SHARP DROP IN SALES NUMBERS PRECEEDS THE SHARP DROP IN PRICE BY TWO YEARS!
6 PAGE 6 SUMMARY TABLE OF PENDING RATIO TRENDS FOR N. KONA RESIDENTIAL, CONDO AND LAND, BIG ISLAND RESIDENTIAL AND COLOR GUIDE FOR MARKET TYPE: PEAK SELLERS NEUTRAL BUYERS KONA RES, CONDO, LND & BIG IS PENDING RATIO TRENDS KONA RESIDENTIAL PRICE RANGE PENDING RATIO'S TABLE 6 Residential Condo Land Average Hawaii Island To $4k $4k-$5k $5k-$7k $7k-$9k $9-$1.5M $1.5M- $4M 4/15/ /15/ /15/ /15/ /15/ /15/ /15/ /15/ /15/ /15/ /15/ /15/ /15/ /15/ /15/ /15/ /15/ /15/ /15/ /15/ /15/ /15/ /15/ /15/ /15/ ' vs 18' 37% 12% -2% 17% 11% -63% -51% 154% 22% 1% -21% CHART 6 - PENDING RATIO - Higher Ratio = Stronger Market. THE SLUGGISH KONA LAND MARKET SHOWS A NEGATIVE 2% RATIO. HAWAII ISLAND IN GENERAL IS UP +11%. THIS IS REALLY THE BELL WEATHER FOR THE OVERALL RESIDENTIAL MARKETS ISLAND WIDE WITH WEST HAWAII TAKING THE LEAD CURRENTLY. THIS IS THE SEASON FOR WEST HAWAII TO SHINE. 8 CHART 6 - Kona Residential and Condo Pending Ratios for the past 12 Months Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 Residential Condo Land Chart 7 - North Kona Residential Pending Ratio by Price Range 12 Month Trend To $4k $4k-$5k $5k-$7k $7k-$9k $9-$1.5M $1.5M- $4M 4/15/217 5/15/217 6/15/217 7/15/217 8/15/217 9/15/217 1/15/217 11/15/217 12/15/217 1/15/218 2/15/218 Chart 7 -
7 PAGE 7 KEEP YOUR EYE ON THE BALL - KONA RESIDENTIAL PRICE TREND FROM 22 SUBDIVISIONS DEVELOPED IN THE LATE 196'S TO 2. THESE $7, $6, KAILUA - KONA REAL ESTATE CYCLES, AVERAGE PRICE TREND 1972 TO 12/31/217 BASED ON 7,476 RESIDENTIAL SALES IN 2 SUBDIVISIONS 26 PEAK AVG PRICE 7'S VINTAGE Linear (AVG PRICE 7'S VINTAGE) $651,3 217 $587,1 $5, $4, $3, $2, $1, 198 PEAK $128, 1985 Bottom $113, PEAK $257, bottom $23,4 211 Bottom $41,1 $(1,) 217 UPDATE: The sales data for this Chart is from 2 subdivisions with total of over 3,997 lots. These were selected because the are representative of mid market housing and date back into the 7's. These homes generally are similar in lot and home size. The price range in 217 was from $39,9 (Hillcrest) to $738, (Vistas I). The data totals over 737 new sales and resales in these subdivisions: Kona Highland, Wonder View, Coast View, Palisades, K. Heights, Aloha K., Hillcrest, Seaview, Sunset, Kilo Hana, Kailua view, Komohana Kai, Kuakini Makai, Cho Cho Est, Malulani Gardens, Kealoha, Kona Vistas I, Keauhou View, Alii Heights I, Pualani Esates, Lokahi Makai. LESSONS FROM THE PAST: 1) The Cycles have been getting longer: 197 to 198 =1 yrs., 198 to 1991= 11, 1991 to 26 = 16yrs. 2) Average annual price increase rate from 1972 to 217 has been +7%. However, the appreciation rate seems to be slowing. Since 1987 the appreciation rate has been in the + range. 3) During these declines in the first two cycles the declines were (-11%) and during the 5 years following the Bubble it was (-45%). We might refer to this as an Anti-Bubble as it was almost as extreme on the downside as the Bubble was on the upside. 4) THE GREATEST PRICE APPRECIATION HAS COME IN THE FINAL TWO OR THREE YEARS OF THE CYCLE. 5) The price change last year for this study was +1%. Times change and every cycle will be different but the cyclical pattern should continue in West Hawaii and Hawaii Island as long as the demographic growth pattern continues. CENSUS DATA DOES SHOW A SLOWER HAWAII COUNTY GROWTH RATE THAN THAT OF 2-21.
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