February/March Southeast Michigan. Real Estate One Housing Report

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1 February/March 217 Southeast Michigan Real Estate One Housing Report

2 Southeast Michigan Summary Lowest Inventory in Over 1 Years Down 3% 217 v 216 Down 1.5% Since Beginning of Year ,689 SEMI Active Listings Last Day of Month 12,651 down 8% 8,815 down 3% Feb- Jan Feb- Jan Feb- Jan Supply: Southeast Michigan s 5-County market began 217 with lower inventory levels than any time in the past 15 years. Then between the beginning of January to the end of February, inventory levels fell another 1.5%, from 9,849 to 8,815 available listings. Demand: Despite lower and picked-over inventory, new pending activity increased by 12% in January and 16% in February. The combination of fewer available listings and increasing new pendings caused Months Supply to drop from 3. to 2.1 months since the beginning of the year. Many buyers, who did not find or get what they were looking for last year, are still watching the market and ready to jump when they see the right home. Sellers who get their homes on the market early this year have the best shot at tapping into the big pool of buyers who continue to look. Higher-End Homes: With 9 Months Supply in the over $6k price range, higher-end markets aren t as hot as the middle and entry markets. However, even with higher-end properties, many buyers are watching and ready to jump when they see sharp new listings. 217 SEMI 5-County Single Family Home Summary YTD= year-to-date; = closed dollar per square foot Early Opportunity: The combination of low and picked-over inventory with the mild winter provides a great opportunity to sellers who can get their homes on the market early this year Mar Jan/Feb EOM New Months YTD Price Range Listings Pendings Supply Closed Jan % $ % Feb % $ % SEMI 5-County Closed Single Family Home Sales $13 $12 $11 $9 $8 $7 2

3 Avg List Price Avg Sold Price $45, $4, $35, $3, $25, $2, $15,, $5, $- $4, $35, $3, $25, $2, $15,, $5, $ % of Total Active Listings Avg LP Current List Pr/Original List Pr 1% $233,44 $237,415 $24,273 98% 98% 1% 19% 26% 45% 1% $189,323 Active Inventory (January 31, 31, 217) 217) Characteristics Over Time 99% Closed Sales (January 217) DOM - Performance / Time Relationships % of Total Closed Avg Sold Price Sold Pr / Original List Pr 99% $162,596 97% $19,387 18% 29% 33% 2% $26,674 94% Up to 7 Days 8-3 Days 31-9 Days Over 9 Days Days on Market $399,665 Up to 7 Days 8-3 Days 31-9 Days Over 9 Days Days on Market 1% 99% 98% 97% 1% 98% 96% 94% 92% 9% Current List Price / Original List Price % Sold Price / Original List Price Low Inventory and High Demand Inventory levels are at a 15 year low and 45% of the listings that are available are picked over and > 9 days old. The average Days on Market (DOM) for active listings > 9 days is 241 days. Buyers are lining up to see and buy the clean new listings 18% of January sales sold in the first week for just over 1% of asking price. High-End Supply/Demand With 9-1 Months of Supply, inventory levels are not as tight for higher-end markets, yet much of that inventory is also picked over and sitting. While the backlog of higher-end buyers is not as large, there is an unfulfilled demand for clean new high-end listings. Despite 3 days of supply, the average market time for the 68 January over $6k closed sales, was 133 days. Today s buyers want and will pay extra for clean move-in-ready homes. First Week Listing Activity 1% of January inventory at the end of the month was less than 7 days old with an average price of $233k. 18% of January closed sales were homes that sold and were processed as pending in the first week. With the low and picked-over inventories, a high percentage of new listings are selling in the first week. Pricing A Tale of Two Markets In every price range, there is a significant gap between average list price and average sold price (see blue columns above). For January closed sales: those that sold within the first 3 days sold for an average of +99% of their original asking price; 97% of original asking price if sold between 31-9 days; and 94% of original asking price if sold in more than 9 days. Homes that have slipped off into the >9 day abyss have been on the market for an average of 241 days and have only reduced their prices by an average of 2%. Most of the >9 day listings will continue to sit until they make significant price or condition adjustments. Seller Opportunities Many of today s listings are rough due to deferred maintenance as we passed through the recession. There is a shortage of the well maintained and detailed homes that buyers want. Couple the inventory shortage with the mild weather This is a great year for sellers to get out of the blocks early. The threat of rising interest rates also motivates buyers to accelerate their purchase plans. Buyers can afford to buy more house (a higher price) at the lower interest rates. Sellers benefit in that more buyers can pay asking price. Two Buyer Opportunities 1. Most buyers are looking for well maintained and detailed homes. Buyers should have their financing lined up and approval in hand. They should use immediate listing notifications and go see hot properties the same day with their check books in hand. Be ready to write, the best ones won t be around tomorrow. 2. Buyers who aren t seeing anything that interests them in their target price range should look at slightly higher priced >9 day listings. Some over-priced sellers are getting lonely and might entertain a reasonable offer. 3

4 Oakland County Oakland County Listings/Pendings/Supply EOM Jan EOM Feb Jan New Feb New Jan Months Feb Months YTD YTD All % $ % >1-2k % $ % >2-4k % $ % >4-8k % $ % >8k % $ % YTD= year-to-date; = closed dollar per square foot 291 available homes declining inventory (typically rising seasonally) 1346 new Febuary pending sales 1761 YTD 217 closed sales down 13% compared to same time 216 $141/SF in January up 5% over Jan/Feb 216 $269k YTD 217 average sale price up 4% over Jan/Feb Oakland County Closed Single Family Home Sales $15 $145 $14 $135 $13 $125 $12 $115 $11 $15 Mar Values are up slightly, but they have been held back by the limited and picked over inventory. 4

5 Macomb County Macomb County Listings/Pendings/Supply EOM Jan EOM Feb Jan New Feb New Jan Months Feb Months YTD YTD All % $ % >1-175k % $ % >175-35k % $ % >35-65k % $ % >65k % $ % YTD= year-to-date; = closed dollar per square foot 161 available homes declining inventory (typically rising seasonally) 14 Macomb County Closed Single Family Home Sales $ new February pending sales 1676 YTD 217 closed sales down 12% compared to same time 216 $13/SF in January up 6% over Jan/Feb 216 $159k YTD 217 average sale price up 1% over Jan/Feb $11 $15 $95 $9 $85 Mar Values are up slightly, but they have been held back by the limited and picked over inventory. 5

6 Wayne County (Excluding Grosse Pointe and Detroit) Wayne County (excluding Grosse Pointe and Detroit) Listings/Pendings/Supply EOM Jan EOM Feb Jan New Feb New Jan Months Feb Months YTD YTD All % $ % >1-1k % $ % >1-2k % $ % >2-4k % $ % >4k % $ % YTD= year-to-date; = closed dollar per square foot 1873 available homes declining inventory (typically rising seasonally) Wayne County (excluding Detroit and Grosse Pointe) Macomb County Closed Single Family Home Sales Closed Single Family Home Sales $115 $12 19 new February pending sales declining new sales activity 1556 YTD 217 closed sales down 1% compared to same time 216 /SF in January up 1% over Jan/Feb 216 $148k YTD 217 average sale price up 12% over Jan/Feb Mar Mar Jun Jun Sep $11 $15 $8 $6 $4 $95 $2 $9 $ $85 Values are up slightly, but they have been held back by the limited and picked over inventory. 6

7 Grosse Pointe Grosse Pointe Listings/Pendings/Supply EOM Jan EOM Feb Jan New Feb New Jan Months Feb Months YTD YTD All % $ % >5-3m % $ % >3-1k % $ % >1-2k % $ % >2k % $ % YTD= year-to-date; = closed dollar per square foot 125 available homes flat inventory level (typically rising seasonally) 75 new February pending sales 89 YTD 217 closed sales down 8% compared to same time Grosse Pointe Closed Single Family Home Sales $18 $16 $14 $12 $8 $14/SF in January up 8% over Jan/Feb 216 $345k YTD 217 average sale price up 22% over Jan/Feb Mar $6 $4 $2 $ Values are up, but are being held back by limited and picked over inventory. 7

8 Detroit Detroit January Listings/Pendings/Supply EOM Jan EOM Feb Jan New Feb New Jan Months Feb Months YTD YTD All % $ % >5-3m % $ % >3-1k % $ % >1-2k % $ % >2k % $ % YTD= year-to-date; = closed dollar per square foot 149 available homes declining inventory (typically rising seasonally) 397 new February pending sales 47 YTD 217 closed sales up 17% compared to same time 216 $34/SF in January up 18% over Jan/Feb 216 $46k YTD 217 average sale price up 16% over Jan/Feb Detroit Closed Single Family Home Sales $45 $4 $35 $3 $25 $2 $15 $1 $5 $ Mar The above chart shows little seasonality in the Detroit single family home market. The number of homes sold is up despite the lack of quality inventory. Average sale price and are up and there have been more upper end sales. There are buyers looking for quality upper end homes, but there is a shortage of well maintained homes. 8

9 Detroit Condos/Lofts Detroit Condos/Lofts January Listings/Pendings/Supply EOM Jan EOM Feb Jan New Feb New Jan Months Feb Months YTD YTD All % $ % >5-75m % $ % >75-2k % $ % >2-35k % $ % >35k % $ % YTD= year-to-date; = closed dollar per square foot 91 available condos/lofts flat/declining inventory level (significant shortage) 3 new February pending sales 39 YTD 217 closed sales 3% increase compared to same time 216 $186/SF in January up 35% over Jan/Feb 216 $21k YTD 217 average sale price up 3% over Jan/Feb Mar Mar Jun Jun Grosse Pointe Detroit Closed Condo/Loft Single Family Sales Home Sales $18 $2 $16 $18 $16 $14 $14 $12 $12 $8 $8 $6 $6 $4 $2 $ The demand for quality Detroit condos and lofts is significantly higher than current supply. Values are up average sales price is up 3% and is up 35% compared to Jan/Feb

10 Downriver Downriver Listings/Pendings/Supply EOM Jan EOM Feb Jan New Feb New Jan Months Feb Months YTD YTD All % $ % >1-75m % $ % >75-125k % $ % >125-25k % $ % >25k % $ % YTD= year-to-date; = closed dollar per square foot 623 available homes declining inventory level (typically rising seasonally) 395 new February pending sales Downriver Closed Single Family Home Sales $9 $8 $7 499 YTD 217 closed sales down 1% compared to same time 216 $84/SF in January up 1% over Jan/Feb 216 $116k YTD 217 average sale price up 14% over Jan/Feb Mar $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $ Values are up, but are being held back by limited and picked over inventory. 1

11 Livingston County Livingston County January Listings/Pendings/Supply EOM Jan EOM Feb Jan New Feb New Jan Months Feb Months YTD YTD All % $ % >1-2k % $ % >2-3k % $ % >3-5k % $ % >5k % $ % YTD= year-to-date; = closed dollar per square foot 53 available homes declining inventory level (typically rising seasonally) 255 new February pending sales Livingston County Closed Single Family Home Sales $16 $14 $ YTD 217 closed sales down 16% compared to same time $8 $13/SF in January up 7% over Jan/Feb $6 $4 $25k YTD 217 average sale price up 9% over Jan/Feb $2 $ Mar Values are up, but are being held back by limited and picked over inventory. 11

12 St Clair County St Clair County Listings/Pendings/Supply EOM Jan EOM Feb Jan New Feb New Jan Months Feb Months YTD YTD All % $ % >1-1k % $ % >1-2k % $ % >2-4k % $ % >4k % $ % YTD= year-to-date; = closed dollar per square foot 519 available homes declining inventory level (typically rising seasonally) 3 St Clair County Closed Single Family Home Sales $ new February pending sales 247 YTD 217 closed sales down 17% compared to same time $8 $6 $87/SF in January up 5% over Jan/Feb 216 $14k YTD 217 average sale price up 9% over Jan/Feb $4 $2 $ Mar Values are up, but are being held back by limited and picked over inventory. 12