HOUSING REPORT SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FEBRUARY 2018

Transcription

1 SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FEBRUARY 218

2 Southeast Michigan Importance of an Early Start in 218 Demand for quality homes remains strong, and the January average sale price was 7% above that of a year ago. Closed sales, however, have dropped in 4 out of the last 5 months in part due to seasonality, and because of depleted inventory levels. January initial inventory levels in the 5 counties that make up the Southeast Region were 6% lower than December and 4% lower than a year ago. Initial Inventory Jan 1, '17 Jan 1, '18 5 County Areas Combined % Oakland % Macomb % Wayne % Livingston % St Clair % While January inventory and closed sales were down, January new pending sales were up 18% compared to December and just slightly above levels from a year ago. Buyers, many who didn t find what they were looking for last year, want to buy, but a shortage of available properties is restricting sales in most Southeast Michigan markets and throughout the country. It is remarkable, and proof of healthy demand, that sales have been as strong as they have been despite inventory shortages that have been going on for years. Even with the 2% lower inventory levels, the number of homes sold last year was only off by 1%. Since most buyers qualify based on the monthly payment they can afford, rising interest rates have a negative effect in that as interest rates rise, the extra interest paid leaves less for principal and lowers the amount the buyer can borrow. Higher interest rates also lessen selling prices for sellers and hit many of them twice because most sellers also become buyers when they obtain their replacement homes. Both buyers and sellers who plan to be involved in the 218 real estate market should do what they can to get an early start. Starting early will help buyers get through the learning curve of securing financing and becoming familiar with the inventory in time to grab one of the early prime-catch listings before buyer competition heats up. Early buyers will also be able to afford more home by beating both price increases and rising interest rates. Sellers who engage early this year will maximize their opportunity to expose their homes to the greatest mass of buyers and will have a chance to sell before rising interest rates take a bite out of their equity/ profits. Those sellers who will also be buying a replacement home will also gain the early buyer advantages on that buy side of their transaction. Over time, rising interest rates and depleted inventories may cool down what is expected to be a strong 218 market. Both buyers and sellers who get an early start this year will likely come out ahead. The combination of rising prices and rising interest rates are providing a one-two punch to affordability.

3 Southeast Michigan $25K +7% from last year 8,23-6% from last month 3,72 +18% from last month 2,825-8% from last year Closed Single Family Home Sales 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, $123 JAN PRICE PER SQ. FT +7% from last year January Closed Volume: $58 Million (-1% from last year) $14 $13 $12 $11 $1 Inventory levels, which have been dropping over the past several years, were 11% lower in January than they were a year ago. January closed sales were down 8% compared to last year, but market activity was on an upswing with 18% more new pendings than in December and slightly more than January 217. The $25k average sale price for the Southeast Region was up 7% from last year and price per square foot was up 7% as well. Look for a continuation of seasonally low inventories, strong demand and rising prices, especially in the first half of 218. Buyers and sellers should get an early start. All 823-6% % % $1k - 2k % % % $2k - 4k 217-1% % % $4k - 8k 163-1% % % $8k % 42 27% % All % $123 7% $1k - 2k % $9 7% $2k - 4k 861 % $134 5% $4k - 8k 226 8% $164 1% $8k + 3-6% $249 5% Data source: Realcomp MLS using Great Lakes Repository Data. Change = Change since prior month or year-to-date change in the YTD section. $/SF = Closed price per square foot.

4 Oakland County $286K +6% from last year 2,619-8% from last month 1,159 +3% from last month % from last year $233(M) -8% from last year 2, 1,6 1,2 8 4 $16 $15 $14 $13 $12 Inventory levels continue to decline compared to prior months and years. Heading into February, Oakland County inventory was 8% lower than last year. While January new pendings were up, the 819 January closed sales were down 34% from December and down 14% compared to January 217. While the year was off to a slow start in terms of sold units, the January average sale price of $286k was 6% higher than it was last year and price per square foot was up 4%. All % % % $1k - 2k % % % $2k - 4k % 496 4% % $4k - 8k 91-1% 22 39% % $8k % 34 55% % All % $147 4% $1k - 2k % $16 3% $2k - 4k 367 1% $14 3% $4k - 8k % $168-2% $8k % $277 7%

5 Macomb County $184K +7% from last year 1,49-9% from last month % from last month 686-8% from last year $126(M) -1% from last year 1,2 1, $13 $12 $11 $1 $9 $8 Inventory levels continue to decline compared to prior months and years. Heading into February, Macomb County inventory was 17% (286 units) lower than last year. While January new pendings were up, the 686 January closed sales were down 8% from December and 1% from January 217. While 218 was off to a slow start, the January average sale price of $184k was 7% higher than it was last year and price per square foot was up 9%. Expect to see tight inventories and rising prices in 218. All 149-9% 797 1% % $1-125k % 267 1% % $ k 334-1% 35 6% % $225-4k 423-7% % % $4k+ 31 % 49 36% % All 686-8% $114 9% $1-125k % $73 1% $ k 276-1% $116 5% $225-4k 143-6% $129 5% $4k % $147 12%

6 Wayne County $157K +13% from last year 3,48-3% from last month 1, % from last month 1,59-3% from last year $166(M) +1% from last year 2, $12 1,6 $11 1,2 $1 8 $9 4 $8 $7 Inventory levels continue to decline compared to prior months and years. Heading into February, Wayne County inventory was 5% lower than last year and 3% lower than last month. While January new pendings were up, the 1,59 January closed sales were down 18% from the number of December closed sales and down 3% compared to January was off to a slow start in terms of sales, but the January average sale price of $157k was 13% higher than it was last year and price per square foot was up 13%. All 348-3% % % $1-1k % 591 8% 3.3-6% $1-2k % % % $2-4k 448-9% % % $4k % 53-1% % All 159-3% $14 13% $1-1k 43-17% $48 7% $1-2k 348-1% $18 7% $2-4k % $129 7% $4k % $164 %

7 Grosse Pointe $335K -17% from last year % from last month % from last month % from last year $18.5(M) +9% from last year $18 $17 $16 $15 $14 $13 $12 Inventory levels fell during the month of January, but heading into February, they were slightly higher than a year ago. Closed January sales were up from 42 last year to 55 this year and level with the prior month of December. Although the number of January sales was up, many of those closed units were last year s leftovers. The average sale price of $335k in January was down $2k from the 217 annual average. Looking forward, values should rise as quality listings become available. All % 59 18% % $1-2k 13-48% 18 29%.7-6% $2-35k 28-18% 24 9% % $35-7k 57-11% 13 8% % $7k+ 33 3% 4 1% % All 55 31% $148-3% $1-2k 12-25% $125 6% $2-35k % $137 2% $35-7k 17 7% $159 15% $7k+ 2-6% $171-14%

8 Detroit $67K +46% from last year 1,648 +3% from last month % from last month % from last year $17(M) +51% from last year $5 $4 $3 $2 Detroit is one of the few Southeast Michigan markets where inventory has been rising. Available listings are up 3% above last month and 11% higher than the same time last year. The 255 closed January single family sales was a slight increase (3%) from last year but the average closed January sale price of $67k was $16k (31%) higher than the 217 annual average. January saw lots of big sales the $17 million in closed volume was up 51% from last year. There continues to be more demand than supply for move-in-ready Detroit homes. All % % % $5-3k 817 8% % 5. 31% $3-1k 749 3% % % $1-2k 51-7% 26-4% 2. -4% $2k % 21-5% % All 255 3% $49 4% $5-3k % $17 13% $3-1k 97 24% $4 8% $1-2k 17 % $73 15% $2k % $11 2%

9 Detroit Condos/Lofts $255K +24% from last year 115 AVAILABLE UNITS -18% from last month % from last month % from last year $7.4(M) +5% from last year $24 $2 $16 $12 $8 $4 Condo/loft inventory slipped last month but it s up about 15% compared to the same time last year. January closed sales were strong 8 more units than December and 5 more than January 217. The $255k average sale price was up 24% from a year ago, and the $227/sf average was up 22%. There were 7 higher-end properties that sold for over $35k. The average price per square foot for those properties was $353. There continues to be a shortage of and strong demand for move-in-ready, high quality Detroit condos and lofts. There were 22 over-$35k new pendings in January. All 115 4% 47 27% % $5-75k 12 2% 5 67% % $75-2k 2 5% 9 % 2.2 5% $2-35k 43-4% 11-27% 3.9 3% $35k+ 4 8% 22 12% % All 29 21% $ % $5-75k 5-29% $55 +16% $75-2k 6 2% $123-16% $2-35k 11 1% $218-9% $35k+ 7 25% $353 28%

10 Downriver $126K +4% from last year % from last month 325-6% from last month 243-7% from last year $3.6(M) -2% from last year Inventory was up slightly compared to December, but down 3 units, or 1%, compared to the same time last year. New pendings and closed sales were both down in January compared to December, and the number of closed sales was also down 12% compared to January of 217. Although sales were down, values were up. The average sale price of $126k was up by $5k or 4% compared to the same time last year. The January average price per square foot was up 13% from a year ago. Expect tight inventories and rising prices especially in the first half of 218. All 646 2% 325-6% 2. 9% $1-75k % 75-21% % $75-125k 164-1% 114 6% % $125-25k % 114-6% 1.6-9% $25k+ 13-3% 22 5% 4.7-7% All 243-7% $96 13% $1-75k 7-15% $56 18% $75-125k 72-1% $91 8% $125-25k 84 11% $19 12% $25k % $13 14%

11 Livingston County $266K +9% from last year 387-9% from last month % from last month % from last year $33.2M) -7% from last year $15 $14 $13 $12 Inventory levels continue to decline compared to prior months and years. Heading into February, Livingston County inventory was nearly 1 units lower than last year. While January new pendings were up, the 125 closed January sales were down 41% from the 213 December sales and down 15% compared to the 147 closed sales in January 217. While 218 sales were off to a slow start, the January average sale price of $266k was 9% higher than last year and price per square foot up 9%. Expect to see low inventories to restrict sales and drive up prices in 218. All 387-9% % % $1-2k 4 11% 38 3% 1.1 8% $2-3k % 86 37% % $3-5k % 54 8% % $5k+ 8-5% 9 5% % All % $143 9% $1-2k 38-37% $123 9% $2-3k 56 % $133 8% $3-5k 25-7% $155 6% $5k+ 6 5% $29-18%

12 St. Clair County $153K +14% from last year 47-8% from last month % from last month % from last year $21(M) +24% from last year January inventory was down 8% compared to December and down 155 units (27%) from the same time last year. Some of that drop in inventory was the result of January s strong sales month with 161 new pending sales up 26% from December and 18% from a year ago. Closed sales and values were also up compared to last year. Sales were up 9%, and with an average sale price of $153, values were up 14%. Look for tight inventory and strong demand to continue pushing prices up in 218. All 47-8% % % $1-1k 79-13% 43 2% % $1-2k 152-1% 8 54% % $2-4k % 35 3% % $4k+ 49-6% 3-57% % All 136 9% $ % $1-1k 41-5% $ % $1-2k 68 17% $ % $2-4k 23-4% $ % $4k+ 4 % $ % $11 $1 $9 $8 $7