Global Marine Insurance Casualty trends

Transcription

1 Global Marine Insurance Casualty trends ASTRID SELTMANN Vice chairman, IUMI Facts & Figures Committee Analyst/Actuary, The Nordic Association of Marine Insurers (Cefor)

2 2 CONTENTS The Global Marine Insurance Market Vessel values CASUALTY TRENDS

3 3 CONTENTS CASUALTY TRENDS OFFSHORE ENERGY Mobile casualties HULL CLAIMS TRENDS Total and major losses & Impact on general trends Claims trends by type of casualty Claims trends by vessel type / age group Special focus: Fire on RoRo/Passenger vessels Seasonal variations Example fishing vessels Cost driving factors

4 THE GLOBAL MARINE INSURANCE MARKET

5 5 MARINE PREMIUM 2014 BY LINE OF BUSINESS 2014 Total: 32.6 USD billion 18.2% 23.2% 6.6% Global Hull Transport/Cargo Marine Liability Offshore/Energy 51.9%

6 6 HULL PREMIUM 2014 BY REGION (SITE OF INSURER) 5.1% 5.3% 1.1% 1.0% Total: USD billion 34.6% 53.0% Europe Asia/Pacific Latin America North America Middle East Africa

7 GLOBAL HULL PREMIUM Other 15.0% USA 4.7% Spain 1.8% Singapore 3.1% Netherlands 3.0% Latin America 5.1% Korea, Republic of 3.7% Japan 7.7% UK (IUA) 6.3% World France Italy 4.0% 4.0% Germany 1.8% UK (Lloyd's) 17.4% China 12.0% Nordic (Cefor) 10.4% Norwegian Hull Club 26.2% Swedish Club 7.9% Møretrygd 1.3% If Gjensidige 5.3% 3.6% Tromstrygd 0.6% Gerling 7.0% Alandia 6.2% Codan 8.1% Nordic (Cefor) Nordic Marine Insurance Statistics: Ocean and coastal hull claims 362,000 registered vessel years (insured ) 86,000 claims reflect about 40% of world fleet Gard 33.6%

8 VESSEL VALUES

9 9 AVERAGE VESSEL VALUES ALL VESSELS INCLUDING (HIGH-VALUE) NEW BUILDINGS 40,000,000 35,000,000 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,

10 10 AV. CHANGE IN VESSEL VALUE ON RENEWAL (COMPARING VALUE OF SAME VESSELS IN TWO CONSECUTIVE YEARS) 15.0% Average annual change in insured values on renewed vessels 10.0% 8.2% 5.9% 5.7% 5.0% 2.0% 4.1% 0.0% % -3.9% -10.0% -8.3% -7.0% -6.2% -6.1% -8.4% -15.0% -14.9% -20.0%

11 11 OFFSHORE VALUES DROPPING SHARPLY Change in average supply/offshore vessel value on renewal & oil price

12 HIGH-VALUE VESSELS = EXPENSIVE LOSSES PORTFOLIO SHARE OF VESSELS BY INSURED VALUES 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% > 300 MUSD 100 <= 300 MUSD 50 <= 100 MUSD 30 <= 50 MUSD 10 <= 30 MUSD <= 10 MUSD Nearly 20% of today s fleet has values > 100 USD million (2000: <10%) 0% Photo: Rvongher / Wikimedia Commons

13 CASUALTY TRENDS

14 TYPES OF (INSURED) CASUALTIES Physical damage vessels, offshore energy units, cargo Third party liability To object e.g. collision People (passengers, crew) Environmental damage (e.g. oil spill) Loss of income Terror etc. 14

15 OFFSHORE ENERGY CLAIMS TRENDS MOBILES

16 NUMBER OF LOSSES MOBILES LOSSES > 1 USD MILLION Mobiles - Number of Losses by Size Losses over $1m only Hurricanes Attritional est. 16 Source: Willis Claims database

17 CLAIMS COST MOBILES LOSSES > 1 USD MILLION Millions $3'000 Mobiles - Claims Cost Losses over $1m only $2'500 $2'000 $1'500 Total exc Hurricanes $1'000 $500 $ est. 17 Source: Willis Claims database

18 CLAIMS FREQUENCY AS % OF CONTRACTED RIGS BY CAUSE MOBILES, LOSSES > 1 USD MILLION 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% Hurricane Unknown Natural Man-Made 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% est. 18 Source: Willis Claims database, Clarksons Research

19 AVERAGE CLAIM COST VERSUS OIL PRICE LOSSES > 1 USD MILLION (EXCL. CAT CLAIMS & LOSSES > 100 USD MILL.) Millions $20 $120 $15 $90 $10 $60 Average Cost Brent Crude $5 $30 $0 $ est. 19 Source: Willis Claims database, Energy Information Association

20 HULL CLAIMS TRENDS Dagfinn Bakke (Foto by Astrid Seltmann, taken on MS Finnmarken)

21 Total Losses as percentage of world fleet, vessels > 500GT 0.4% 0.3% Long term positive trend but some increase in % 0.1% 0.0% in % of Vessels in % of GT 21 Source: Fleet numbers : Clarkson Research Services, Losses: LLI, total losses as reported in Lloyds List

22 Tanker Total Losses As percentage of world tanker fleet, tankers > 500GT 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% in % of Vessels in % of GT 22 Source: Fleet numbers : Clarkson Research Services, Losses: LLI, total losses as reported in Lloyds List

23 Bulker Total Losses as percentage of world bulker fleet, bulkers > 10,000 DWT 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% in % of Vessels in % of GT 23 Source: Fleet numbers : Clarkson Research Services, Losses: LLI, total losses as reported in Lloyds List

24 Container total Losses as percentage of world container fleet 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% in % of Vessels in % of GT 24 Source: Fleet numbers : Clarkson Research Services, Losses: LLI, total losses as reported in Lloyds List

25 25 CLAIMS FREQUENCY PARTIAL VERSUS TOTAL LOSSES Claims frequency, by date of loss 40.00% 0.30% 35.00% 0.25% 30.00% 25.00% 0.20% 20.00% 0.15% 15.00% 0.10% 10.00% 5.00% 0.05% 0.00% 0.00% partial claims <75% SI (left axis) TLO claims >75% SI (right axis)

26 2 TOTAL LOSSES DRIVE UP CLAIMS COST ULTIMATE PARTIAL AND TOTAL CLAIM COST PER VESSEL Ultimate partial and total claim cost per vessel (in USD) by date of loss High total loss impact 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, Ultimate claim per vessel incl. IBNR Ultimate partial claim per vessel incl. IBNR

27 27 MAJOR CLAIMS IMPACT CLAIMS > 10 USD MILLION AS % OF TOTAL CLAIMS COST 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

28 28 CLAIM COST PER VESSEL BY SIZE OF CLAIMS 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 > 50 MUSD 30 <= 50 MUSD 10 <= 30 MUSD 5 <= 10 MUSD 1 <= 5 MUSD <= 1 MUSD IBNR

29 CLAIMS BY TYPE OF CLAIM

30 30 Total Losses by cause, all vessel types, vessels > 500 GT Weather Grounding Fire/explosion Collision/contact Hull Damage Machinery Other Source: Lloyds List Intelligence, total losses as reported by Lloyds List 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Frequency ( % of all total losses for the period)

31 31 DISTRIBUTION OF NUMBER OF CLAIMS BY TYPE % 12.3% 8.8% 0.4% 2.4% 40.6% 0.2% 1.6% 9.3% Machinery Fire/Explosion Collision 41.2% Machinery Fire/Explosion Collision Contact Contact Grounding Ice Heavy weather Grounding Ice Heavy weather 24.0% Other 21.8% / unknown Other / unknown 10.8% 2.0% 11.2% 2.3%

32 32 DISTRIBUTION OF CLAIMS COST BY TYPE % 1.9% 6.1% 0.2% 34.8% 3.2% 0.2% 11.2% Machinery Fire/Explosion 10.0% 30.7% Machinery Fire/Explosion Collision Collision Contact Grounding 7.9% Ice Contact Grounding Ice 7.5% Heavy weather Other / unknown Heavy weather Other / unknown 12.6% 13.5% 13.9% 22.9%

33 33 CLAIMS FREQUENCY OF CLAIMS > USD 500,000 BACK TO PRE-BOOM LEVEL 1.80% 1.60% 1.40% Machinery 1.20% 1.00% 0.80% 0.60% Collision, Contact, Grounding, Ice Other Fire/Explosion 0.40% Heavy weather 0.20% 0.00%

34 34 AVERAGE CLAIM COST (USD 1,000) INCREASED IMPACT OF COSTLY FIRE/EXPLOSION CLAIMS 3,500 Average claim cost in USD 1,000 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Fire/Explosion Collision, Contact, Grounding, Ice Machinery Heavy weather

35 CLAIMS TRENDS BY AGE GROUP AND VESSEL TYPE

36 CLAIMS FREQUENCY, BY AGE GROUP Claims frequency per age group 0-5 years 5-10 years years years years

37 CLAIM COST PER VESSEL, BY AGE GROUP 160, , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Claim per vessel (USD) per age group 0-5 years 5-10 years years years years , ,267 70,688 88,030 52, ,618 62,517 81,337 76,223 49, ,603 90,863 76,631 81,042 50,957 37

38 CLAIMS FREQUENCY, BY VESSEL TYPE 0.5 Claims frequency per vessel type group Bulk Cargo Cont./Car /RoRo Passenger Tank Supply/Of f

39 CLAIM COST PER VESSEL, BY VESSEL TYPE 350, , , , , ,000 50,000 0 Claim per vessel per vessel type group Bulk Cargo Cont./Car /RoRo Passenger Tank Supply/Of f ,096 43,904 93, ,148 58,031 28, ,891 46,690 78, ,817 49,034 42, ,374 45,400 84, ,073 53,171 35,733 39

40 SPECIAL FOCUS: - COST DRIVING FACTORS - FIRE ON RORO & PASSENGER VESSELS - SEASONAL VARIATIONS

41 COST DRIVING FACTORS INFLATION INDEX 2000= 100% Cost driving factors inflation index, 2000 = 100% 275.0% 250.0% 225.0% 200.0% 175.0% 150.0% 125.0% 100.0% 75.0% USD against EUR (annual exchange rate) Claim per vessel (incl. total losses and IBNR) Cru Steel Price Index (CRUspi) Ship operating costs Partial claim per vessel (incl. IBNR) 41 Sources: Claim index: Cefor NoMIS data as of ; Exchange rates: Norges Bank, Ship operation costs: Moore Stephen s, Steel: CRU Steel Price Index

42 42 FIRE FREQUENCY BY VESSEL TYPE TREND CONTINUES INTO 2015 Source: Cefor Annual Report 2014

43 43 NORDIC COASTAL & FISHING VESSELS SEGMENT 136,500 vessel years 27,000 claims Fishing vessels = 47%

44 44 RIDING OUT THE STORMS Claims frequency per month of exposure, Fishing vessels

45 STAYING IN CONTROL Drawing by Dagfinn Bakke (Foto by Astrid Seltmann, taken on MS Finnmarken)

46 46 ISSUES TO MONITOR High-value risks The human factor/ Qualification Oil price, fuel quality Climate changes Astrid Seltmann Law and liability changes Arctic risks Accumulation Dagfinn Bakke (Foto by Astrid Seltmann) New technology Astrid Seltmann Navigation MSC Safety discussions! Astrid Seltmann

47 47 IUMI REPORTS 2015/16: IUMI Statistics: IUMI Political Forum list of issues: IUMI_Political_Forum_public_ pdf

48 48 CEFOR REPORTS 2016: (NORDIC MARINE INSURANCE STATISTICS)

49 THANK YOU.