Syndicate Business Forecasts

Transcription

1 Novae Syndicates Limited Syndicate Business Forecasts February 2009

2 Introduction The business plan information summarised here relates solely to Syndicate 2007 managed by Novae Syndicates Limited. Most of it is extracted from the most recent SBF (Syndicate Business Forecast) submitted to Lloyd s. All information is presented on a year of account basis. No attempt has been made to reconcile data with the way Novae Group plc reports annually accounted numbers in respect of its Lloyd s Corporate Member (NCUL). Unless stated otherwise rates of exchange used are Premium Income Monitoring (PIM) rates, which are set by Lloyd s. For the US Dollar these rates are as follows: = $ = $ = $ = $1.99 The information disclosed here relates to Syndicate 2007 as a whole and no attempt has been made to indicate that proportion (currently 94%) attributable to the Novae Group. The business of Novae Group also includes that of an FSA regulated insurance company (Novae Insurance Company Limited) and no information is included in respect of this component here. Syndicate Business Forecasts February

3 Ownership of capacity m Syndicate 1007: NCUL Other Total Syndicate 2147: Total (all NCUL) Syndicate 2007 NCUL Total managed capacity Other Total Total NCUL capacity NCUL % of total 91.7% 93.6% 93.9% 94.0% 94.0% 94.4% Syndicate Business Forecasts February

4 Utilisation of capacity (PIM ROE) Capacity Gross premium incl. acq costs Gross premium after acq costs Utilisation * 70.9% 73.4% * Utilisation shown is based on projected written income after acquisition costs and does not include reinstatement premiums. (Current planning assumptions suggest that reinstatement premiums could increase utilisation by some 3%.) Syndicate Business Forecasts February

5 Syndicate premium income: Syndicate accounting m Syndicate 1007 Gross premiums Net premiums Syndicate 2147 Gross premiums Net premiums Syndicate 2007 Gross premiums Net premiums All premium figures above are after deducting acquisition costs and are converted into Sterling at 31 st December, 2008 exchange rates, principally 1=$1.44 Syndicate Business Forecasts February

6 Composition of gross premium income (PIM ROE) Including acquisition costs Excluding acquisition costs Financial Institutions Professional Indemnity Management Liability Specie & Cargo Credit & Political Special Situations Property Reinsurance Property USA Property International Aviation Reinsurance Marine Hull Marine War Marine Liability Energy US Binder Liability Direct Liability International Casualty UK Property Bloodstock Motor Total Syndicate Business Forecasts February

7 US Dollar content (at PIM ROE) US Dollar income as a percentage of total premium income Financial Institutions Professional Indemnity Management Liability Specie & Cargo Credit & Political Special Situations Property Reinsurance Property USA Property International Aviation Reinsurance Marine Hull Marine War Marine Liability Energy US Binder Liability Direct Liability International Casualty UK Property Bloodstock Motor Overall Syndicate Business Forecasts February

8 million Sources of business (PIM ROE) Direct 1. Binding Authorities delegated outside the Managing Agent Service Companies and Binding Authorities not delegated outside the Managing Agent Lineslips Other Reinsurance 5. Facultative Treaty Proportional Treaty Non-proportional Excess of Loss Treaty Non-proportional Stop Loss Total (1-8) Syndicate Business Forecasts February

9 Brokers accounting for largest proportion of premium income to the syndicate (at PIM ROE) Figures below relate to percentage of syndicate premium income Aon Marsh Willis Novae Service Companies Sub total All other brokers Total Syndicate Business Forecasts February

10 Geographical split of business (PIM ROE) Region (%) Europe: UK Europe: Western Europe (excl. UK) Europe: Central and Eastern Europe Asia Pacific: South Asia Asia Pacific: Oceania Asia Pacific: Central Asia Asia Pacific: East Asia Americas: North America Americas: Central America Americas: South America Americas: Caribbean Middle East and Africa: Central and Southern Africa Middle East and Africa: Middle East Middle East and Africa: Northern Africa Totals Syndicate Business Forecasts February

11 Outwards reinsurance premiums (% of total) Security Facultative Proportional treaty Excess of loss treaty (LOD) Excess of loss treaty (other e.g. RAD) Stop loss Total spend by Tier A B C D E F Lloyd s Tier Tier Tier Tier Non Rated Total spend by programme Syndicate Business Forecasts February

12 Realistic Disaster Scenarios (1) These are based on exposures at 1 st October US Dollar amounts are converted into Sterling at 1 = $1.99. The net numbers shown are after all reinstatements but before any provision for potential bad debt on reinsurance recoveries. US natural catastrophes m As % capacity ( 360m) Gross Net Gross Net Florida windstorm: generic * ($70bn) Miami Dade ($122bn) Pinellas # ($122bn) Gulf of Mexico windstorm: generic * ($60bn) Lloyd s event ($115bn) California earthquake: generic * ($50bn) Los Angeles ($83bn) San Francisco ($83bn) New Madrid earthquake ($45bn) Multiple events: NE USA windstorm (first loss) ($76bn) Carolinas windstorm (second loss) ($34.75bn) * Generic scenarios are not submitted to Lloyd s but are used by NSL for internal monitoring purposes. # Includes Carolinas exposure. This probably contributes some 2m- 3m to the total both gross and net. Syndicate Business Forecasts February

13 Realistic Disaster Scenarios (2) m As % capacity ( 360m) Gross Net Gross Net Non-US natural catastrophes UK/European windstorm ($32.5bn) Novae Third Event * ($32.5bn) UK Flood ($10bn) Japanese earthquake ($51bn) Japanese typhoon ($15bn) Political Risks Events Event Event Event Event Liability Scenarios Professional lines scenario: UK pensions mis-selling Corporate collapse post merger General Liability scenario: Collapse of a stadium * This assumes that the European storm occurs after two Florida hurricanes causing insured losses of $50bn and $25bn. Syndicate Business Forecasts February

14 Realistic Disaster Scenarios (3) m As % capacity ( 360m) Gross Net Gross Net Marine & Aviation Events Marine collision Prince William Sound Marine cruise vessel incident North Sea loss of major complex * Aviation collision ($4.5bn) Satellite loss generic defect Sundry other events Terrorism: Event Event Syndicate Business Forecasts February