Market Update Time to redesign our models?

Transcription

1 MARITIME Market Update Time to redesign our models? INCENTRA Council Meeting - Haugesund Jakub Walenkiewicz 1 SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER

2 JM Keynes AGGREGATED DEMAND Boost the economy Increase spending CREATE additional demand! (called aggregated demand) USE public sector if the private one is insufficient John Maynard Keynes British economist

3 Contracting vs earnings 3

4 Demand vs Supply Seaborne trade growth has been satisfactory, with annual growth 3-4% Sizable drop in world trade in 2009 is casually neglected Yet the fleet growth is notoriously faster then demand There seems to always be a reason to contract a new ship 4

5 Reasons for contracting Reasonable Speculative/political Insane Renewal Purpose built (for complex projects) Trading areas ECA Cargo demand (very specific segments only) Counter cyclical orders Capital availability (PE) Increased efficiency and/or competitiveness Incentive schemes (i.e. China) Limited capacity in yards? Last one in the queue syndrome Stakeholders pressure my ship will be ready by the time the market has recovered currency exchange killer offers from yards (and financiers) 5

6 Contracting H Continued slow-down in the NB market Substantially lower volume of contracts 1H 2015 over 50% below 1H 2014 South Korea - 38% share (GT) : crude, container, products, gas China 27% share (GT): crude, bulk, containers, gas Japanese - 25% share (GT): bulk, containers, crude, products, gas 6

7 INSANITY doing the same thing over and over again, each time expecting different results 7

8 New contracts activity Obvious slow down y-o-y Biggest correction in bulk and offshore segments Despite fewer vessels ordered, the tanker segment remains strong Container market stronger! Still positive sentiment in the gas sector despite large orderbook So far 1050 contracts (41.9 mill. GT) 8

9 World Seaborne Trade Seaborne trade in 2014 reached billion tonnes Expected growth in billion tonnes (UP 4.1%) Iron Ore + 6.4% Coal + 2.3% Crude Oil + 1.4% Oil Products + 3.4% Containers + 7.1% Gas & Chem + 5.1% 9

10 Orderbook composition Orderbook Orderbook acc. by country acc. by of ship domicile type as operator builder of as of Operator Builder Ship Country Type Number of vessels Share (%) DWT Share (%) Bulker China Greece ,7 39,2% 6,0% % ,0 42,8% 14,2% % Tanker Korea Singapore (South) ,6 13,2% 9,1% % ,1 29,4% 9,6% % Container Japan China ,5% 6,8 6,9% % ,9 18,5% 8,2% % LNG Philippines JapanCarrier ,4 1,6% 5,6% % ,2 3,0% 6,4% % Offshore Brazil Norway ,0 2,4% 3,9% % ,7 1,9% 4,5% % LPG Romania Hong Carrier Kong ,3 1,1% 3,2% % ,4 1,1% 3,8% % Dry Vietnam Bermuda Cargo ,1 3,2% 2,0% % ,5 0,8% 3,7% % Roro Chinese GermanyTaipei (Taiwan) ,9 0,5% 3,1% % ,5% 3,7% % Miscellaneous United Chinese States Taipei of (Taiwan) America ,2 2,0% 1,3% % ,4% 3,4% % Pass./Ferry Croatia Korea (South) ,7 0,5% 1,8% % ,2% 3,3% % Reefer Singapore Monaco ,1 1,3% 1,9% % ,0 0,1% 3,3% % Others ,4% 55,2% 0,0 % ,1% 0,0 1,1% % Grand Total ,0% % ,0% % 10

11 2009 vs 2015? 11

12 2015 World Economy 4 drivers 1. Uneven global growth World 3.5% 3.3% advanced world - 2.4% 2.1% developing world - 4.3% 4.2% 2. Weak banks and high debt public, household, corporate, bank debt interest rates low relaxed fiscal policy Developed economies World average Emerging economies 3. Low oil prices always good news for oil importers oil exporters will survive 4. Strengthening of the US dollar substantial help for importing countries stimulates exporters outside US dollar 12

13 Commodities $ 40-ish $ 55-ish $ 60-ish 13

14 Drivers 14

15 Drivers 15

16 Weather chart CRUDE OIL PRODUCTS LNG LPG BULKERS CONTAINERS OFFSHORE 16

17 Contracting Forecast 17

18 Conclusions Our models gradually stop working Read between the lines as supply/demand changes directions and forms Excess of capacity! Reduction in the NB activity, shipyards squeezed, orderbook on a downhill trend but there are many reasons to order new ships, particularly is there is money to be spent Don t expect the supply/demand calculations to provide you with the accurate number of new contracts 18

19 Thank You Jakub Walenkiewicz SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER 19