Drybulk market outlook

Transcription

1 Drybulk market outlook Have we reached the bottom? 12 th Mare Forum Shipfinance 2012 Burak Cetinok Senior Analyst Amsterdam,

2 Baltic Dry Index THE GREAT SHIPPING CYCLE Growth Fleet 46% Trade 5 CHINESE STIMULUS Growth Fleet 4 Trade 18% WHAT NOW?

3 Accumulated over-supply Over-supply

4 Earnings under further pressure in 2012 Baltic Dry Index 2011 vs %

5 Global seaborne trade is set to grow but at a lower pace Global seaborne trade reached 3.4bn tonnes in 2011 Seaborne trade will continue to grow by an average of 4. annually between 2012 and 2014 Contribution to global seaborne trade growth by commodity 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Iron ore Coal Agriculture related Construction & manufacturing related Global seaborne trade growth CAGR 4. 4,500 4,000 3,500 Million tonnes 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, e 2013f 2014f Iron Ore Coal Agricultural related Cons.&manufacturing related

6 Drybulk fleet is expanding rapidly Recorded deliveries and demolition 2012 year-to-date (Jan 25 Oct) +27mt +15mt +14mt +2mt Net effect: +128 ships +163 ships +227 ships +44 ships

7 and will continue to do so in 2013 Drybulk orderbook as % of fleet Drybulk orderbook as a multiple of scrap pool

8 Scrapping is expected to remain high Drybulk demolition activity 550 Capesize average scrapping age No of vessels e 2013f 2014f

9 as scrap prices are still firm Capesize earnings vs scrap value Ratio of gross annual earnings to scrap value

10 Drybulk supply and demand balance Trade in million tonnes 4,000 3,900 3,800 3,700 3,600 3,500 3,400 3,300 3,200 3,100 3,000 2,900 2,800 2,700 2,600 2,500 2,400 2, % 14% 14% 10% 9% 10% 9% 8% 6% 5% 3% 5% 3% 3% 4% 3% 2% 0% -1% f 2013f 2014f 1 16% 15% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% % y-o-y growth Trade (Mt) Required dwt growth Trade growth Net fleet growth

11 Conclusions Drybulk seaborne trade will continue to grow but at a lower pace Emerging economies, particularly China and India will continue to be drivers of demand growth Fleet will continue to expand rapidly in 2013 but will slow down in 2014, given contracting remains subdued Only in 2014 we can expect a meaningful recovery 12 December 2011

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