Global Marine Insurance Report 2008

Transcription

1 Global Marine Insurance Report 28 Astrid Seltmann Facts & Figures Committee Analyst/Actuary, CEFOR, Norway

2 Report on marine insurance premiums 26 and 27 By end of August 28, 49 of 54 members (ex 45 of 53, new IUMI member Brasil) reported their country s marine premium figures for accounting years 26 and 27. The reporting countries represent approximately 97% of the total marine premium written by all IUMI members. Total premium for 27 is therefore estimated to reach approx. USD 22.8 billion*, and increase of 9.8% from 26 (excl. premium from mutual P&I Clubs). Taking into account the exchange rate impact, the increase is estimated to be only 5%.

3 World Merchant Fleet and Global Marine Hull & Liability Premium 18% 16% 14% 12% Index of evolution, vessels > 1 GT, 1995 = 1% No. Ships Gross tonnage 1% 8% 6% 4% Global Marine Hull & Liab. Premium Average insured vessel value (CEFOR) Sources: Indicators for World Fleet from ISL Bremen, Vessel value index: CEFOR

4 World Seaborne Trade Volume and Trade Values, Global Cargo Premium 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% Index of evolution, 1995 = 1% Total World Trade Volume Global Cargo Premium Total World Trade Values 5% Source: Indicators for World Trade Volume from ISL Bremen A major part of the increase 21-4 & 6-7 and decrease is due to variation in exchange rate against USD! (Cargo mostly written in local currency)

5 Energy Mobiles, Day rates, Oil Price Global Offshore/Energy Premium 4% Index of evolution, = 1% 3% 2% 1% No. Contracted Rigs Global Offshore/Energy Premium Average Day Rates (USD) Oil price, Brent Crude (USD) % Sources: No. Contracted rigs, day rates: RigZone, Oil price: Enery Information Administration (US)

6 Index of evolution of Exchange rates between US$ and selected currencies 16% (as of December each year) 14% 12% USD weaker stronger weaker EUR GBP JPY 1% NOK 8% 6% Source: Norges Bank Exchange Rates Statistics

7 Exchange rates against US$ (as of December each year for selected currencies) against USD: USD EUR GBP JPY NOK Source: Norges Bank Exchange Rates Statistics

8 Global premiums reported 23 to 27 (accounting years) Reported change 26->27 Rough estimate of change 26->27 without exchange rate impact Global Hull Transport / Cargo Marine Liability Offshore / Energy 12.% 11.7% 2.8% 2.5% 9% 5% % % Total 9.8% 5% USD (millions) Increase 1-4 & 5-7 partly due to weakening of USD against European and Asian currencies. Stagnation 5 due to strengthening of USD against major European and Asian currencies.

9 Report on marine insurance premiums Global premiums (USD billions, as reported per end of August 28) Global Hull Transport/Cargo Marine Liability Offshore/Energy Total Index 25-26* 16.3% 13.1% 11.1% 58.6% 18.3% Index 26-27* 12.% 11.7% 2.8% 2.5% 9.8% *Index based on figures from Associations who have reported in both years. The index reflects changes in country activity, exchange rates in addition to premium increases and is thus not a renewal index! As some countries only report total marine premium without splitting into classes, the sum of these classes might in some cases be slightly less than the total sum.

10 Market Shares % 5.5% Europe Asia/Pacific North America Rest of World 21.9% 61.3% Europe : Albania, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom (IUA + Lloyds) Asia/Pacific : Australia, Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong, India, Japan, North Korea, South Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore North America : Bermuda, Canada, USA Rest of the World : Brasil (new 27), Congo, Egypt, Israel, Kenya, Lebanon, Mexico, Morocco, Nigeria, South Africa,Tunisia, United Arab Emirates Countries in italics did not report in 28

11 Report on marine insurance premiums by economic areas (USD Millions) Europe, Asia: Exchange rate effects due to weakening/strengthening of USD Accounting Year Europe Asia/Pacific North America Rest of the World Rest of World: Brasil figures included from 26

12 Report on marine insurance premiums by economic areas (USD 1,) Region Premiums Premiums Premiums Variation Variation Market share Market share Market share Europe 13,557,579 12,431,427 1,551, % 17.81% 61.34% 61.77% 62.4% Asia/Pacific 4,845,46 4,447,837 3,963, % 12.22% 21.92% 22.1% 23.3% North America 2,489,597 2,33,427 2,137, % 7.78% 11.26% 11.45% 12.57% Rest of the world 1,21, , , % % 5.48% 4.68% 2.9% Europe : Albania, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom (IUA + Lloyds) Asia/Pacific : Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Japan, North Korea, South Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore North America: Bermuda, Canada, USA Rest of the World : Brasil, Congo, Egypt, Israel, Kenya, Lebanon, Mexico, Morocco, Nigeria, South Africa, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates Countries in italics did not report in 28.

13 Global Marine Premium - 27 (USD Million), as reported 25, 2, Total 15, 1, 5, Accounting Year Cargo Hull Energy Liability

14 Global Hull Premium Major Markets, (USD Million) Accounting Year France Italy Japan Norway Spain UK (ILU/IUA) UK (Lloyd's) USA Hull : commercial vessels only; direct insurance for: Hull&Machinery, increased value, freight and other ancillary interests, Loss of Hire, Construction risks.

15 Global Cargo Premium Major Markets, (USD Million) Belgium China France Germany 1 Italy Japan Accounting Year Europe/Asia: exchange rate effects. Netherlands Spain Sweden UK (ILU/IUA) UK (Lloyd's) USA

16 MARINE MUTUAL MARKET SECTOR Gross Calls (Premium) Operational location Per accounting year USD Million Accounting Year Japan Norway Sweden UK US Source: Standard & Poors Marine Mutual Report 28

17 MARINE MUTUAL MARKET SECTOR Gross Calls (Premium) Operational location Per accounting year - USD 1 Ranking Average Annual variation Operational Difference 7-3 over period UK 1,769,431 1,614,769 1,562,123 1,448,285 1,285,5 484, % 1 1 Norway 511, , ,929 39, , , % 2 2 Japan 165,19 135, , ,585 17,539 57, % 3 4 US 163, , ,62 118,959 63,749 1, % 4 3 Sweden 124, ,549 11,57 82,618 84,472 39, % 5 5 Total 2,733,88 2,474,323 2,381,143 2,167,112 1,858, , % Source: Standard & Poors Marine Mutual Report 28

18 Report on marine insurance premiums - Accounting year 26 (in USD 1) Name of association Global Hull Transp./ Marine Offshore/ Total Cargo Liability Energy Albania (Albanian Ass. of Marine Insurers) Australia (Insurance Council of Australia Ltd.) 2, 178, 3, 4, 412, Austria (Verband der Versicherungsunternehmen Oesterreichs) 143,14 143,14 Belgium (ABAM_/BVT Belgian Association of Marine Insurers) 27, , ,517 Bermuda (Bermuda Institute of Marine Underwriters) not rep. Brasil (Federacão Nacional de Seguros Gerais) 62,41 383,82 1,194 85, ,548 Bulgaria (BULSTRAD Insurance and Reinsurance PLC) 12,342 11,934 1,482 25,758 Canada (The Canadian Board of Marine Underwriters) 127, ,698 24,546 Chinese Taipei (The Non-Life Ins. Ass. of the Republic of China) 48, , ,974 Congo (Société Nationale d'assurances SONAS) not rep. Croatia (Croatian Insurance Bureau) 16,6 7,8 1,5 5,3 31,2 Cyprus (Insurance Association of Cyprus) 368 7,1 5 7,473 Czech Republic (Ceska Pojistovna AS) 47 34, ,66 Denmark (Foreningen af Danske Soeassurandoerer) 88,117 72,196 16,313 Egypt (Insurance Federation of Egypt) 13,239 18, ,488 78,567 Finland (Finnish Marine Underwriters' Association) NA NA NA NA 74,23 France (FFSA-Féd.Francaise des Sociétés d'ass.transports) 389, ,166 1,171,34 Germany (Gesamtverband der Deutschen Versicherungswirtschaft e.v.) 156,154 1,431,21 1,587,175 Greece (Hellenic Association of Insurance Companies) 29,49 52,756 8,84 89,89 Hong Kong (The Hong Kong Federation of Insurers) 19,8 125,75 3, ,277 Hungary (Association of Hungarian Insurance Companies) NA NA NA NA 16,877 Comments: NA = figure/split not available, not rep. = country did not report

19 Report on marine insurance premiums Accounting year 26 (in USD 1) Name of association Global Hull Transp./ Marine Offshore/ Total Cargo Liability Energy India (Tariff Advisory Committee) 4,5 142,771 1,643 75,54 259,969 Ireland (The Irish Institute of Marine Underwriters) 8,129 29,216 1,395 38,74 Israel (Israel Insurance Association) 11, 45, 56, Italy (ANIA-Associazione Nazionale fra le Imprese Assicuratrici) 338, ,619 24,664 98,775 1,91,595 Japan (The Marine and Fire Insurance Association of Japan, Inc. 458,829 1,647,74 32,712 83,773 2,222,388 Kenya (The Association of Kenya Insurers) 19,769 19,769 Korea, (Korea Foreign Ins. Co.) not rep. Korea, (Korea Non-life Ins. Assocn.) 273, ,8 17,56 2, ,398 Lebanon (Association des Companie d'assurances au Liban - ACAL) NA NA NA NA 13,25 Malaysia (General Ins. Association of Malaysia) 63,157 18, , ,195 Mexico (Asociacion Mexicana de Suscriptores Maritimos) 9,889 29,667 4,944 4,944 49,444 Morocco (F.M.S.A.R. & Comité des Assureurs Maritime du Maroc CAMM 24,366 43,447 67,813 Netherlands (Association of Insurers) 154, 495, 649, New Zealand (Insurance Council of New Zealand) 23,288 34,651 1,397 59,336 Nigeria (Nigerian Insurers Association) ,289 24,457 Norway (The Central Union of Marine Underwriters) 715,1 58,1 NA 773,2 Comments: NA = figure/split not available, not rep. = country did not report

20 Report on marine insurance premiums Accounting year 26 (in USD 1) Name of association Global Hull Transp./ Marine Offshore/ Total Cargo Liability Energy Poland (WARTA Insurance & Reinsurance Co. SA) 39,566 66,276 4,22 1,21 111,83 Portugal (Associacão Portuguesa de Seguradores) 22,835 4,717 1,92 64,644 Romania (National Union - Insurance and Reinsurance Comp.) 8,57 7,699 2,149 17,95 Russia (Russia Ingosstrakh Insurance Company Ltd.) 38,5 128,1 26,5 NA 193,1 Singapore (General Insurance Association of Singapore) 94,7 11,6 incl. in hull 25,3 Slovenia (Slovenian Insurance Association) 1,93 15,724 1,116 18,742 South Africa (Association of Marine Underwriters in South Africa) 9,5 9, 99,5 Spain (Comité de Transportes de UNESPA) 277, ,28 675,355 Sweden (Forsäkringsforbundet) 116, , ,892 Switzerland (Swiss Association of Marine Underwriters) NA NA NA NA 278,3 Tunisia (Fédération Tunisienne des Sociétés) not rep. Turkey (Ass. of the Ins. and Reins. Companies of Türkiye) 44, ,92 235,875 Ukraine(Marine Insurance Bureau of Ukraine) not rep. United Arab Emirates ( Emirates Insurance Association) not rep. United Kingdom (Int'l Underwriting Association of London - IUA) 288, ,28 44,48 112, ,417 United Kingdom (Lloyd's Underwriters' Association.) 625,883 72, ,861 1,86,631 3,625,87 U S A (American Institute of Marine Underwriters) 32,15 81, ,14 277,477 2,62,881 Total sum 5,27,887 1,378,49 1,356,48 2,736,397 2,124,38 UK Lloyd s: Projected ultimate underwriting year premium, after deduction of acquisition costs, but including proportional and facultative reinsurance. Acquisition cost ratio is estimated to be ca. 2-25% for most years. Marine Liability includes P&I premium via International Group s reinsurance programme, which is estimated to be about 65% of the reported liability premium. All historical figures revised in 28. Comments: NA = figure/split not available, not rep. = country did not report

21 Report on marine insurance premiums Accounting year 27 (in USD 1) Name of association Global Hull Transp./ Marine Offshore/ Total Cargo Liability Energy Albania (Albanian Ass. of Marine Insurers) Australia (Insurance Council of Australia Ltd.) 199, 174, 3, 4, 47, Austria (Verband der Versicherungsunternehmen Oesterreichs) 172,68 172,68 Belgium (ABAM_/BVT Belgian Association of Marine Insurers) 29, , ,583 Bermuda (Bermuda Institute of Marine Underwriters) not rep. Brasil (Federacão Nacional de Seguros Gerais) 8,84 492,61 1,874 79, ,547 Bulgaria (BULSTRAD Insurance and Reinsurance PLC) 12,751 14,125 1,596 28,472 Canada (The Canadian Board of Marine Underwriters) 157,95 14,7 298,2 Chinese Taipei (The Non-Life Ins. Ass. of the Republic of China) 51, ,92 229,29 Congo (Société Nationale d'assurances SONAS) not rep. Croatia (Croatian Insurance Bureau) 17,5 8, 1,8 5,3 32,6 Cyprus (Insurance Association of Cyprus) 324 8, ,885 Czech Republic (Ceska Pojistovna AS) 17 38, ,51 Denmark (Foreningen af Danske Soeassurandoerer) 99,913 78,38 178,221 Egypt (Insurance Federation of Egypt) 15,71 45, ,25 118,556 Finland (Finnish Marine Underwriters' Association) NA NA NA NA 79,233 France (FFSA-Féd.Francaise des Sociétés d'ass.transports) 439,275 97,18 1,346,383 Germany (Gesamtverband der Deutschen Versicherungswirtschaft e.v.) 187,951 1,59,4 1,777,955 Greece (Hellenic Association of Insurance Companies) 33,983 61,347 9,133 14,463 Hong Kong (The Hong Kong Federation of Insurers) 114,67 128,79 5, ,833 Hungary (Association of Hungarian Insurance Companies) NA NA NA NA 18,537 Comments: NA = split not available, not rep. = country did not report

22 Report on marine insurance premiums Accounting year 27 (in USD 1) Name of association Global Hull Transp./ Marine Offshore/ Total Cargo Liability Energy India (Tariff Advisory Committee) 42, ,78 1,33 118, ,663 Ireland (The Irish Institute of Marine Underwriters) 8,536 26,294 1,325 36,155 Israel (Israel Insurance Association) 1,5 49, 59,5 Italy (ANIA-Associazione Nazionale fra le Imprese Assicuratrici) 353, ,268 19,485 11,48 1,138,93 Japan (The Marine and Fire Insurance Association of Japan, Inc. 51,25 1,769,465 32,357 96,665 2,399,737 Kenya (The Association of Kenya Insurers) 22,54 22,54 Korea, (Korea Foreign Ins. Co.) not rep. Korea, (Korea Non-life Ins. Assocn.) 298, ,21 18,66 5,128 62,928 Lebanon (Association des Companie d'assurances au Liban - ACAL) NA NA NA NA 14,5 Malaysia (General Ins. Association of Malaysia) 56, , , ,711 Mexico (Asociacion Mexicana de Suscriptores Maritimos) 8,335 29,722 4,52 4,971 47,548 Morocco (F.M.S.A.R. & Comité des Assureurs Maritime du Maroc CAMM 26,17 62,521 88,691 Netherlands (Association of Insurers) 186, 595, 781, New Zealand (Insurance Council of New Zealand) 23,729 35,37 1,424 6,459 Nigeria (Nigerian Insurers Association) 23,16 54,4 4,632 17,935 99,767 Norway (The Central Union of Marine Underwriters) 793,465 72,1 NA 865,565 Comments: NA = split not available, not rep. = country did not report

23 Report on marine insurance premiums - Accounting year 27 (in USD 1) Name of association Global Hull Transp./ Marine Offshore/ Total Cargo Liability Energy Poland (WARTA Insurance & Reinsurance Co. SA) 51,68 79,174 4,985 1, ,165 Portugal (Associacão Portuguesa de Seguradores) 26,274 6,362 2,483 89,119 Romania (National Union - Insurance and Reinsurance Comp.) 8,911 8,515 2,376 19,83 Russia (Russia Ingosstrakh Insurance Company Ltd.) 39,25 13, 29,6 NA 198,85 Singapore (General Insurance Association of Singapore) 12,8 12,3 incl. in hull 223,1 Slovenia (Slovenian Insurance Association) 2,325 2,29 1,441 23,795 South Africa (Association of Marine Underwriters in South Africa) 1, 95, 15, Spain (Comité de Transportes de UNESPA) 316,38 47, ,79 Sweden (Forsäkringsforbundet) 139,29 198, ,542 Switzerland (Swiss Association of Marine Underwriters) NA NA NA NA 29,3 Tunisia (Fédération Tunisienne des Sociétés) not rep. Turkey (Ass. of the Ins. and Reins. Companies of Türkiye) 63,266 25,37 313,573 Ukraine(Marine Insurance Bureau of Ukraine) not rep. United Arab Emirates ( Emirates Insurance Association) not rep. United Kingdom (Int'l Underwriting Association of London - IUA) 317, ,93 49, , ,697 United Kingdom (Lloyd's Underwriters' Association.) 76,18 764,65 435,49 1,73,267 3,636,299 U S A (American Institute of Marine Underwriters) 349,25 832, ,26 275,655 2,191,577 Total sum 5,95,693 11,595,9 1,394,284 2,85,693 22,13,25 UK Lloyd s: Projected ultimate underwriting year premium, after deduction of acquisition costs, but including proportional and facultative reinsurance. Acquisition cost ratio is estimated to be ca. 2-25% for most years. Marine Liability includes P&I premium via International Group s reinsurance programme, which is estimated to be about 65% of the reported liability premium. All historical figures revised in 28. Comments: NA = split not available, not rep. = country did not report

24 Marine Hull Evolution of Paid Claims, Gross Premiums 4 USD underwriting year 35 as reported, U/W Year to 27 (USD) 4 USD 21 underwriting year 35 4 USD 22 underwriting year 35 4 USD 23 underwriting year end of end of end of end of USD 24 underwriting year 35 4 USD 25 underwriting year 35 4 USD 26 underwriting year 35 4 USD 27 underwriting year end of end of end of Blue line = Gross Premium; Red line = Paid Claims Totals of 1 IUMI members Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, UK Lloyds & IUA, USA end of

25 Marine Hull Evolution of Paid Claims, Gross Premiums as reported, U/W Year 1996 to 1999 (USD) 4 USD underwriting year 4 USD underwriting year 4 USD underwriting year 4 USD underwriting year end of end of end of end of Blue line = Gross Premium; Red line = Paid Claims Totals of 1 IUMI members Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, UK Lloyds & IUA, USA

26 3 USD underwriting year 25 Marine Hull Evolution of Paid and Total Claims, Gross Premiums 3 as reported, U/W Year to 27 (USD) USD 21 underwriting year 25 3 USD 22 underwriting year 25 3 USD 23 underwriting year end of end of end of end of USD 24 underwriting year 3 USD 25 underwriting year 3 USD 26 underwriting year 3 USD 27 underwriting year end of end of end of Blue line = Gross Premium; Red line = Paid Claims, Yellow line = Paid+Outstanding claims end of Totals of 9 IUMI members Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, UK Lloyds, USA

27 5 USD underwriting year 45 Marine Hull Evolution of Paid Claims, Gross Premiums with estimation towards ultimate, U/W Year to 27 (USD) 5 USD 21 underwriting year 45 5 USD 22 underwriting year 45 5 USD 23 underwriting year end of ult end of ult end of ult end of ult 5 USD 24 underwriting year 45 5 USD 25 underwriting year 45 5 USD 26 underwriting year 45 5 USD 27underwriting year end of ult end of ult end of ult Blue line = Gross Premium; Red line = Paid Claims Totals of 1 IUMI members Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, UK Lloyds & IUA, USA end of ult

28 Marine Hull Ladder Table I. (USD) Totals of 1 IUMI members Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, UK Lloyds, UK IUA, USA (not necessarily 1% of market income) Underwriting year months Gross premiums 1,821,496,956 2,284,87,5 2,347,1,277 2,327,381,593 2,331,416,885 2,333,253,672 2,34,973,788 2,358,88,97 2,367,5,332 Paid claims 239,712, ,129,52 1,329,886,498 1,52,453,11 1,595,113,13 1,636,9,586 1,655,78,64 1,69,52,431 1,73,478,384 Loss ratio paid Gross premiums 1,468,813,425 1,897,543,428 1,941,13,784 1,959,66,145 1,961,149,125 1,963,258,389 1,979,286,735 1,985,498,388 1,968,446,881 Paid claims 258,193,13 1,,271,611 1,416,441,383 1,587,769,874 1,664,46,735 1,712,152,137 1,725,927,951 1,734,64,45 1,726,823,763 Loss ratio paid Gross premiums 1,288,352,343 1,71,698,57 1,783,346,47 1,783,293,154 1,79,321,477 1,812,845,692 1,823,15,322 1,86,726,158 1,825,685,653 Paid claims 33,49,296 1,184,314,94 1,721,277,261 1,91,169,723 1,99,95,172 2,48,172,98 2,76,136,231 2,71,538,574 2,66,959,851 Loss ratio paid ,347,75,36 2,368,852,56 2,46,358,499 1,692,82,233 1,71,88,697 1,744,4, ,983,31,569 2,2,178,114 1,744,814,488 1,776,647, ,863,96,817 2,114,3, Gross premiums 1,227,528,521 1,641,146,864 1,725,983,551 1,737,194,556 1,756,24,96 1,763,258,37 1,744,39,931 1,761,968,114 1,797,56,588 Paid claims 28,981,919 1,174,76,524 1,714,688,94 1,924,77,327 2,5,796,186 2,14,986,43 2,16,632,886 2,151,147,614 2,21,339,836 Loss ratio paid Gross premiums 1,228,138,163 1,651,762,7 1,741,1,431 1,757,942,85 1,763,165,713 1,749,499,688 1,766,43,51 1,81,489,736 Paid claims 272,115,189 1,14,51,597 1,484,973,359 1,666,811,858 1,743,238,838 1,771,943,954 1,88,911,976 1,852,157,486 Loss ratio paid Gross premiums 1,375,261,484 1,78,429,214 1,859,222,918 1,865,157,56 1,857,815,132 1,882,66,487 1,926,589,827 Paid claims 215,216,281 88,845,647 1,281,11,876 1,48,159,423 1,468,727, 1,512,86,21 1,563,174,24 Loss ratio paid Gross premiums 1,626,464,78 2,26,34,83 2,57,119,96 2,2,486,12 2,66,577,622 2,14,77,798 Paid claims 262,444,57 1,48,73,634 1,439,85,872 1,64,584,739 1,75,538,779 1,815,699,957 Loss ratio paid Gross premiums 1,936,881,52 2,419,426,27 2,445,926,743 2,468,699,81 2,525,548,325 Paid claims 38,886, ,326,353 1,313,226,68 1,494,529,42 1,596,118,99 Loss ratio paid Gross premiums 2,155,789,939 2,669,73,971 2,775,865,598 2,849,58,491 Paid claims 284,95,32 1,154,61,8 1,576,281,835 1,824,122,822 Loss ratio paid Gross premiums 2,282,1,194 2,784,819,582 2,879,271,783 Paid claims 265,529,149 1,147,973,645 1,55,367,559 Loss ratio paid Gross premiums 2,519,175,168 3,168,611,391 Paid claims 26,159,21 1,374,52,21 Loss ratio paid Gross premiums 2,55,769,952 Paid claims 381,612,72 Loss ratio paid 14.96

29 Marine Hull Evolution of Paid and Total Claims, Gross Premiums as reported, U/W Year 1996 to 1999 (USD) 3 USD underwriting year 3 3 USD 1997 underwriting year USD 1998 underwriting year USD 1999 underwriting year end of end of end of end of Blue line = Gross Premium; Red line = Paid Claims, Yellow line = Paid+Outstanding claims Totals of 9 IUMI members Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, UK Lloyds, USA

30 Marine Hull Ladder Table II. (USD) Totals of 9 IUMI members Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, UK Lloyds, USA (not necessarily 1% of market income) Underwriting year months Gross premiums 1,386,795,25 1,676,466,982 1,716,257,579 1,693,88,517 1,694,426,743 1,71,547,726 1,711,61,928 1,732,955,84 Total claims incl. outstanding 722,472,388 1,149,697,458 1,263,331,558 1,269,819,529 1,249,638,632 1,258,87,761 1,265,11,27 1,28,329,668 Total loss ratio Gross premiums 1,178,41,57 1,451,848,166 1,473,677,532 1,487,287,297 1,492,53,764 1,498,18,577 1,518,235,297 1,526,691,369 Total claims incl. outstanding 694,286,496 1,283,933,728 1,396,382,63 1,43,459,571 1,399,379,45 1,392,278,11 1,395,111,574 1,392,237,396 Total loss ratio Gross premiums 1,73,749,845 1,346,699,262 1,4,554,641 1,45,627,567 1,418,381,677 1,442,564,778 1,454,456,37 1,439,355,73 Total claims incl. outstanding 763,33,276 1,45,171,626 1,628,98,583 1,652,595,411 1,662,29,283 1,687,967,582 1,678,328,612 1,653,348,556 Total loss ratio Paid claims 232,133, ,121,525 1,425,334,74 1,63,77,91 1,75,98,748 1,753,788,317 1,747,751,262 1,79,952,79 Total claims incl. outstanding 846,633,165 1,568,187,439 1,797,643,191 1,847,631,471 1,892,17,766 1,894,56,832 1,858,65,818 1,896,126,163 Total loss ratio ,743,432,36 1,724,933,791 1,746,35,811 1,783,542,254 1,287,69,424 1,269,763,85 1,285,34,58 1,315,291, ,511,58,959 1,529,3,766 1,565,97,311 1,369,528,57 1,384,36,917 1,415,654, ,458,417,113 1,495,396,783 1,653,67,488 1,693,526, ,84,361,786 1,919,91, Gross premiums 1,75,55,519 1,396,578,636 1,474,847,656 1,495,999,88 1,51,457,951 1,489,34,769 1,56,841,818 1,542,38,935 Total claims incl. outstanding 765,97,949 1,47,71,18 1,623,637,67 1,656,272,773 1,637,973,9 1,65,164,836 1,615,554,389 1,635,93,82 Total loss ratio Gross premiums 1,174,181,985 1,487,668,187 1,56,559,811 1,567,74,816 1,559,71,526 1,585,778,326 1,629,864,82 Total claims incl. outstanding 755,69,383 1,279,569,547 1,429,22,372 1,399,338,515 1,383,771,18 1,394,9,45 1,429,371,752 Total loss ratio Gross premiums 1,433,528,848 1,765,831,29 1,795,92,771 1,746,689,335 1,812,586,94 1,85,796,919 Total claims incl. outstanding 936,691,245 1,558,616,614 1,664,45,178 1,667,419,87 1,76,3,59 1,696,141,93 Total loss ratio Gross premiums 1,698,96,635 2,15,512,472 2,13,679,137 2,156,248,117 2,215,61,154 Total claims incl. outstanding 823,46,928 1,393,531,83 1,491,465,892 1,553,374,651 1,586,616,788 Total loss ratio Gross premiums 1,93,185,78 2,332,789,755 2,445,32,384 2,521,155,7 Total claims incl. outstanding 972,27,127 1,681,41,18 1,761,56,47 1,799,342,125 Total loss ratio Gross premiums 1,923,477,64 2,324,69,857 2,418,521,943 Total claims incl. outstanding 854,765,83 1,593,895,27 1,695,311,43 Total loss ratio Gross premiums 2,21,176,49 2,728,463,656 Total claims incl. outstanding 1,7,324,51 2,229,692,96 Total loss ratio Gross premiums 2,313,994,534 Total claims incl. outstanding 1,248,959,631 Total loss ratio 53.97

31 Marine Hull Gross Loss Ratio paid claims, Actual and estimated towards ultimate 14% U/W Year 1996 to 27 12% Technical break even is achieved when the gross loss ratio does not exceed 1% minus the expense ratio (between 2% and 3%, acquisition costs, capital costs and management expenses) 1% 8% 6% 4% 22 27/ / % % Ultimate Ultimates based on 1 IUMI members: Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, UK Lloyds & IUA, USA

32 5 Transport/Cargo Evolution of Paid Claims, Gross Premiums USD underwriting year USD 21 underwriting year as reported, U/W Year to 27 (USD) 5 USD 22 underwriting year 45 5 USD 23 underwriting year end of end of end of end of USD 24 underwriting year 45 5 USD 25 underwriting year 45 5 USD 26 underwriting year 45 5 USD 27 underwriting year end of end of Blue line = Gross Premium; Red line = Paid Claims end of end of Totals of 9 IUMI members Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, UK Lloyds & IUA, USA

33 Transport/Cargo Evolution of Paid Claims, Gross Premiums as reported, U/W Year 1996 to 1999 (USD) underwriting year USD underwriting year USD underwriting year USD underwriting year USD end of end of end of end of Blue line = Gross Premium; Red line = Paid Claims Totals of 9 IUMI members Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, UK Lloyds & IUA, USA

34 Transport/Cargo Paid and Total Claims, Gross Premiums as reported, U/W Year to 27 (USD) 5 USD underwriting year USD 21 underwriting year USD 22 underwriting year 45 5 USD 23 underwriting year end of end of end of end of USD 24 underwriting year 45 5 USD 25 underwriting year 45 5 USD 26 underwriting year 45 5 USD 27 underwriting year end of end of end of end of Blue line = Gross Premium; Red line = Paid Claims, Yellow line = Paid+Outstanding claims Totals of 8 IUMI members Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, UK Lloyds, USA

35 Transport/Cargo Evolution of Paid Claims, Gross Premiums with estimation towards ultimate, U/W Year to 27 (USD) 6 USD underwriting year 5 USD 21 underwriting year end of ult end of ult 6 USD 22 underwriting year end of ult 6 USD 23 underwriting year end of ult 6 USD 24 underwriting year 55 6 USD 25 underwriting year 55 6 USD 26 underwriting year 55 6 USD 27 underwriting year end of ult end of ult end of ult end of ult Blue line = Gross Premium; Red line = Paid Claims Totals of 9 IUMI members Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, UK Lloyds & IUA, USA

36 Transport / Cargo Ladder Table I. (USD) Totals of 9 IUMI members Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, UK Lloyds, UK IUA, USA (not necessarily 1% of market income) Underwriting year months Gross premiums 1,951,169,564 2,684,929,728 2,81,692,776 2,786,216,56 2,839,137,113 2,843,394,548 2,875,312,294 Paid claims 488,697,83 1,33,218,35 1,714,466,112 1,774,698,719 1,856,713,349 1,87,888,8 1,892,825,712 Loss ratio paid ,98,659,666 2,924,353,335 2,896,539,184 2,92,644,955 2,983,853,698 1,911,428,64 1,923,95,826 1,91,495,873 1,921,735,447 1,969,934, Gross premiums 2,12,693,215 2,921,847,82 3,1,929,196 3,46,438,763 2,993,146,274 3,22,563,324 3,51,287,147 Paid claims 631,823,711 1,771,51,13 2,115,97,952 2,258,717,76 2,238,237,721 2,276,61,479 2,35,337,28 Loss ratio paid Gross premiums 2,116,886,558 2,935,833,823 3,33,136,224 2,975,28,551 3,14,829,564 3,58,128,752 3,77,341,37 Paid claims 657,86,533 1,88,315,611 2,26,352,748 2,314,59,889 2,39,844,223 2,438,846,768 2,454,37,938 Loss ratio paid Gross premiums 1,981,821,889 2,88,657,566 2,933,79,144 2,987,272,445 3,24,298,35 3,32,396,71 3,6,3,89 Paid claims 632,54,954 1,838,47,179 2,274,96,632 2,44,782,725 2,59,89,635 2,562,396,562 2,552,932,249 Loss ratio paid Gross premiums 1,957,98,137 2,787,25,725 3,51,646,971 3,11,426,177 3,138,598,948 3,74,69,598 3,13,84,261 Paid claims 569,964,148 1,73,392,397 2,244,369,858 2,43,447,985 2,448,228,68 2,452,772,431 2,451,535,88 Loss ratio paid ,64,556,29 3,38,447,69 3,59,87,479 3,11,143,31 2,313,518,525 2,295,667,999 2,312,644,657 2,34,252, ,49,221,974 3,72,89,635 3,118,422,41 2,44,674,26 2,459,995,873 2,497,52, ,32,329,544 3,74,616,596 2,577,892,285 2,64,721, ,155,52,674 2,471,968, Gross premiums 2,43,244,968 3,59,974,321 3,226,365,321 3,252,497,483 3,26,163,258 3,244,14,87 3,296,547,73 Paid claims 57,68,941 1,582,94,842 1,944,853,519 2,87,71,775 2,52,154,71 2,97,351,621 2,132,42,844 Loss ratio paid Gross premiums 2,499,644,928 3,552,2,558 3,694,,82 3,646,349,342 3,711,73,49 3,78,593,176 Paid claims 512,967,957 1,596,774,46 1,927,157,687 1,998,975,173 2,79,211,488 2,14,93,24 Loss ratio paid Gross premiums 2,848,37,88 3,992,859,566 4,42,289,461 4,124,17,85 4,184,737,631 Paid claims 61,688,354 1,566,112,394 1,857,16,193 1,99,879,183 2,71,975,858 Loss ratio paid Gross premiums 3,15,768,18 4,218,792,615 4,433,844,846 4,52,164,664 Paid claims 584,67,151 1,697,946,624 2,18,186,162 2,333,652,249 Loss ratio paid Gross premiums 3,27,783,362 4,37,78,474 4,56,299,336 Paid claims 64,269,899 1,841,76,641 2,382,148,271 Loss ratio paid Gross premiums 3,237,759,493 4,594,64,911 Paid claims 639,138,138 1,778,778,184 Loss ratio paid Gross premiums 3,58,78,799 Paid claims 799,89,629 Loss ratio paid 22.34

37 Transport/Cargo Paid and Total Claims, Gross Premiums as reported, U/W Year 1996 to 1999 (USD) underwriting year USD underwriting year USD underwriting year USD underwriting year USD end of end of end of end of Blue line = Gross Premium; Red line = Paid Claims, Yellow line = Paid+Outstanding claims Totals of 8 IUMI members Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, UK Lloyds, USA

38 Transport / Cargo Ladder Table (USD) Totals of 9 IUMI members Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, UK Lloyds, USA (not necessarily 1% of market income) Underwriting year months Gross premiums 1,768,456,896 2,337,723,217 2,412,369,514 2,387,122,39 2,434,286,592 2,438,324,363 2,47,412,64 Total claims incl. outstanding 1,3,75,577 1,722,36,92 1,769,944,761 1,694,272,132 1,7,232,33 1,698,317,418 1,75,944,565 Total loss ratio Gross premiums 1,97,81,979 2,612,368,137 2,656,86,61 2,688,348,343 2,631,955,94 2,66,753,815 2,689,56,813 Total claims incl. outstanding 1,538,812,742 2,127,12,747 2,137,72,81 2,163,435,354 2,55,624,91 2,62,913,664 2,79,226,346 Total loss ratio Gross premiums 2,2,238,582 2,669,772,781 2,735,4,819 2,676,13,983 2,715,841,35 2,757,52,624 2,774,515,118 Total claims incl. outstanding 1,612,899,1 2,221,623,59 2,372,117,461 2,282,556,583 2,292,63,826 2,33,947,513 2,37,699,832 Total loss ratio Gross premiums 1,867,898,5 2,548,87,956 2,63,93,763 2,688,574,69 2,726,19,335 2,737,595,74 2,711,52,23 Total claims incl. outstanding 1,556,6,367 2,299,52,2 2,4,362,492 2,422,66,698 2,422,376,24 2,44,782,561 2,49,58,158 Total loss ratio Gross premiums 1,879,137,514 2,574,773,23 2,817,864,299 2,877,58,557 2,96,754,69 2,843,628,966 2,872,143,1 Total claims incl. outstanding 1,534,74,553 2,294,225,92 2,515,47,216 2,526,764,221 2,454,72,734 2,398,362,526 2,383,837,466 Total loss ratio ,53,597,834 2,518,86,32 2,491,472,346 2,515,578,116 2,578,786,86 1,718,15,245 1,723,582,544 1,76,127,415 1,715,429,194 1,764,56, ,72,639,262 2,677,455,941 2,698,73,867 2,74,39,699 2,83,139,62 2,62,233,658 2,76,387,38 2,12,62, ,748,25,635 2,771,655,37 2,816,32,839 2,283,89,319 2,298,127,465 2,329,119, ,737,485,737 2,779,873,756 2,428,95,451 2,45,589, ,924,84,65 2,397,926, Gross premiums 1,926,424,714 2,798,119,697 2,946,163,547 2,971,437,457 2,926,63,91 2,965,248,683 3,17,327,715 Total claims incl. outstanding 1,493,8,354 2,131,214,765 2,28,85,425 2,144,754,399 2,81,538,786 2,87,992,398 2,18,47,428 Total loss ratio Gross premiums 2,354,471,846 3,29,518,357 3,422,992,516 3,375,689,529 3,441,268,938 3,51,887,84 Total claims incl. outstanding 1,547,997,255 2,25,936,969 2,238,63,914 2,157,19,353 2,171,262,199 2,181,123,41 Total loss ratio Gross premiums 2,7,35,859 3,737,11,916 3,769,945,54 3,854,87,228 3,916,118,83 Total claims incl. outstanding 1,681,36,462 2,232,987,27 2,22,736,56 2,18,735,768 2,17,585,934 Total loss ratio Gross premiums 2,871,858,585 3,939,232,575 4,143,194,622 4,216,173,474 Total claims incl. outstanding 1,771,673,74 2,538,625,82 2,63,636,782 2,576,547,699 Total loss ratio Gross premiums 2,739,23,96 3,883,811,492 4,64,794,657 Total claims incl. outstanding 1,769,98,948 2,643,313,747 2,733,439,34 Total loss ratio Gross premiums 2,978,51,658 4,181,452,57 Total claims incl. outstanding 1,83,36,942 2,66,915,428 Total loss ratio Gross premiums 3,332,68,536 Total claims incl. outstanding 2,192,116,119 Total loss ratio 65.78

39 Technical break even is achieved when the gross loss ratio does not exceed 1% minus the expense ratio (between 2% and 3%, acquisition costs, capital costs and management expenses) Transp./Cargo, Gross Loss ratio paid claims, Actual and estimated towards ultimate U/W Year 1996 to 27 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Ultimate Ultimates based on 9 IUMI members Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, UK Lloyds, UK IUA, USA / / /

40 Marine Hull and Cargo/Transport Gross Ultimate Loss Ratio as of 27 14% 12% 1% U/W Year 1996 to 26 Impact of major claims in 27 attaching to 26 + further increase in partial claims costs in 27 8% 6% Marine Hull Cargo/Transport 4% 2% Estimation shown in Copenhagen 27 %

41 Marine Hull and Cargo/Transport Gross Ultimate Loss Ratio as of 28 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% U/W Year 1996 to 27 Hull 6: Claims incurred 27 attaching to 26 Cargo 5: including US impact (Katrina) and 27: When will it end? Marine Hull Cargo/Transport 4% 2% %

42 Hull Gross Loss Ratio (Paid+Outst. Claims / Gross Premiums) by UW year, as reported at 12, 14, 36, 48 and 6 months 9% 8% 27: starts high at 55% 26 UW year: Claims occured in 27, but attaching to % % 27 5% 4% Months

43 Cargo Gross Loss Ratio (Paid+Outst. Claims / Gross Premiums) by UW year, as reported at 12, 14, 36, 48 and 6 months 8% 7% 27: starts at 25 level 23 Cargo claims reserved sufficiently at an early stage. 6% 5% 4% Months Initial claims reserves include recoveries to be expected later. Usually uw year results improve over time.

44 Summing up Hull Marine Hull 24, 25: Few major claims, but increase in average repair cost 26: Increase in number and severity of major claims Trend towards higher attritional claims cost continues Strong impact on result by claims occured in 27, but attaching to 26 27: Starts at high loss ratio level, expected to produce a technical loss again. Premium increases do not sufficiently balance cost inflation.

45 Summing up Transport/Cargo Transport/Cargo Exposures in values increase significantly, but not reflected in premium development Stability in results since 22 25: slightly worse than average result, probably due to Katrina 27: signs of worsening of cargo results

46 Explanation of terms used in this presentation (1) Gross premium = Premium for insurance including the provision for anticipated losses (the pure premium) and for the anticipated expenses (loading), including also commission and brokerage but excluding taxes and other contributions on insurance premiums. Written premium = Complete premium due for insurance policies which start, i.e. are written, in a specific year (= the underwriting year of the policy). Does not give any information on actual premium payments/instalments, i.e. the cash flow. Paid claims = Amounts the insurer has paid for known and registered claims less recoveries. Outstanding claims reserve = Claims reserve for specific reported, but not yet (fully) paid claims, of which the insurer has an estimation of the total amount to be paid. Includes loss adjustment expenses. = Sum of total claims estimates minus any amounts already paid for these claims. Total claim = Paid amounts + outstanding claims reserve for specific reported claims. IBNR = Incurred but not reported = additional claims reserve on top of the outstanding claims reserve, and which for claims incurred, but not yet known or registered in the insurer s system. The necessary IBNR reserve is derived by statistical methods based on historical claims ladder statistics. Loss ratio = Claims divided by premiums. Indicator of whether premiums are calculated correctly to match claims and other expenses. Gross loss ratio (in this presentation) = Sum of total claims and IBNR reserves, divided by gross written premiums Underwriting year basis = Insurance figures are registered with the calender year in which the insurance policy starts, and to which the covered risks accordingly attach to. Example: a policy with cover period has underwriting year 26. Both claims occuring in 26 and 27 for risks attaching to this policy are thus attributed to underwriting year 26. The underwriting year is not closed, so underwriting year figures change as long as there are payments related to policies with this underwriting year. Accident year = Claims are registered with the calendar year in which an accident happens. Claims attaching to the same policy may thus be attributed to different accident years. Example: for the policy with cover period a claim occuring in 27 has accident year 27, but underwriting year 26. The accident year is not closed, so figures will change as long as there are claims payments related to claims occured in that accident year, e.g. a claim payment made in 29 for an accident which happened in 27 will be attributed to accident year 27. Accounting year (also booking year) = Insurance figures, regardless of their original source date, are booked into that year of account which is open at the time of actually entering the figures in the books. Contrary to the underwriting and accident year, the accounting year is closed at some point in time, usually at the end of one calendar year, such that figures do not change any more once the accounting year is closed. These give the insurance results usually published in companies annual reports.

47 Explanation of terms used in this presentation (2) Premium volumes shown in this report are (as defined in the Report Form): Gross written premiums - for direct marine insurance in the national market - for the accounting years 25 and 26 - excluding: - all types of reinsurance (facultative and treaty, proportional as well as nonproportional), with the exception of facultative reinsurance from a captive, which would not be reported by another member association. - War risk premium. - including: - all marine premium from the national market, if possible also premium written by insurers who are not members of the national association. Above are the specifications of what IUMI members ideally should report. The actually reported figures may though possibly deviate from that. If such deviations and their impact on the figures is known to IUMI it is commented.

48 Explanation of terms used in this presentation (3) Classes of business premium is reported for (as defined in the Report Form): Global Hull = -Ocean (blue-water) Hull Insurance -Commercial vessels engaged in international trade under domestic or foreign flag. -Interests included are: hull and machinery (H&M), disbursements, increased value, freight or other ancillary interests, loss of hire (LOH), construction risks. -Coastal/Inland Marine Hull Insurance -Vessels not included in the above category, trading in domestic waters or inland waterways, e.g. coasters, fishing vessels, tugs, lighters, barges, etc. Only premium relating to commercial vessels, pleasure craft is excluded (where possible). -Interests included are: same as for ocean hull. Marine liabilities for this type of vessel are excluded (where possible), as these fall under Marine Liability. Transport/Cargo = all types of insurance relating to cargo, including freight forwarders, CMR and carriers liability, in transit whether on land, sea or air, domestic as well as international trade. Marine Liability = insurance covering marine liabilities in respect of vessels classified as coastal/inland marine and also marine liabilities covering charterers, shiprepairers, stevedores, wharfingers, terminal operators and similar legal liability insurances. P&I insurance placed with members of the International Group of P&I Clubs is excluded here (where possible). Offshore/Energy = insurance of all interests relating to offshore exploration and production activities, including both mobile and fixed units, construction risks. Figures relating to onshore (downstream) operations are excluded (where possible).