Fresh Meat Mid-Year Review 2009 Retail Advisory Committee

Transcription

1 Fresh Meat Mid-Year Review 2009 Retail Advisory Committee Presented by the National Pork Board October 2009

2 Scope of analysis 2 Freshlook syndicated grocery scanner data (~65% ACV) Total U.S. and eight standard U.S. regions Excludes club stores, supercenters and natural food stores Total fresh meat data including both fixed and random weight items Beef Chicken Fresh Pork Sausage Ham Turkey Whole muscle beef and ground beef Fresh and smoked (chops, picnics, offals, etc.) All random weight items plus fixed weight dinner sausage (Bratwurst, Chorizo, Italian, Polish, etc.) Fresh and frozen (meat department only) Lamb/Veal Misc. species Duck, buffalo, etc. Value added Dinner entrées, pre-cooked products/meals sold in meatcase, ready to cook raw items that have been marinated/seasoned or stuffed and specialty cuts such as kabobs, stir fry and stew meat Leemis ad tracking service Includes feature ad activity data across 171 grocery accounts and market combinations, representing ~31% of the ACV

3 Mid-year tonnage was strong with fresh pork leading the 3 core species On an annual basis, fresh pork was tied with chicken (+6.0%); they both had a good upside versus beef (+3.4%) Within beef, ground had a tonnage advantage Turkey and ham also had strong tonnage gains 26 Wks End June Wks End June 2009 % Change Pounds Sold 9.8% 9.2% 5.5% 4.7% 5.1% 3.4% 7.2% 6.0% 6.0% 5.5% 6.8% 5.3% 1.4% -0.5% Total Meat Beef Fresh Pork Chicken Dinner Sausage Change in Front Page Features: Turkey Ham +5.1% +3.8% +6.3% +2.5% +4.5% +1.3% +4.6% +6.4% +2.9% +3.1% +20% +18% -10% -8% 3 Ground: +5.8% (26 wks); +4.8% (52 wks) All Other Beef: +4.6% (26 wks); +2.2% (52 wks) Lamb: -4.9% (26 wks); -8.5% (52 wks) Veal: -3.6% (26 wks); -14.7% (52 wks)

4 2007 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q2 Closer look at fresh pork pounds Great news! Each quarter was stronger than last year Fresh Pork - Pounds Sold (Last 2 Years) Last Year Current Year (+6%) 500,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000,000 % Change vs. Prior Quarter +6.3% +3.1% +13.8% +1.3% July 4th Easter Memorial Day July 4th Easter H1N1 Memorial Day Source: FreshLook syndicated meatcase grocery data Total U.S. 52 weeks ending June 2009 vs. year ago 4

5 Fresh pork lost its lead in dollars driven by reduced pricing vs. beef and chicken However, fresh pork remained strong in the 1 st half of 2009 despite the initial H1N1 scare in late April/early May with dollar gains of +5% Annually, fresh pork (+5.4%) is ahead of beef (+5.0%) but below chicken (+6.7%) As seen in pounds, ground beef is driving the total beef dollar increase 26 Wks End June Wks End June 2009 % Change Dollar Sales 10.1% 9.4% 5.8% 5.7% 5.7% 5.0% 5.0% 5.4% 5.9% 6.7% 6.8% 7.6% 8.0% 5.0% Total Meat Beef Fresh Pork Chicken Dinner Sausage Turkey Price/ Pound: Ham 5 Ground: +9.6% (26 wks); +9.8% (52 wks) All Other Beef: +3.5% (26 wks); +2.4% (52 wks) Lamb: +0.6% (26 wks); -1.9% (52 wks) Veal: -3.2% (26 wks); -7.4% (52 wks)

6 2007 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q2 Closer look at fresh pork dollars All but Q2 was stronger than prior year Increased featuring/reduced prices has played a role Fresh Pork - Dollar Sales (Last 2 Years) Last Year Current Year (+5.4%) % Change vs. Prior Quarter $1,300,000, % +4.9% +11.3% -0.7% $1,250,000,000 $1,200,000,000 $1,150,000,000 $1,100,000,000 $1,050,000,000 $1,000,000,000 July 4th Easter Memorial Day July 4th Easter H1N1 Memorial Day Source: FreshLook syndicated meatcase grocery data Total U.S. 52 weeks ending June 2009 vs. year ago 6

7 2008/07/ /07/ /07/ /07/ /08/ /08/ /08/ /08/ /08/ /09/ /09/ /09/ /09/ /10/ /10/ /10/ /10/ /11/ /11/ /11/ /11/ /11/ /12/ /12/ /12/ /12/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /03/ /03/ /03/ /03/ /03/ /04/ /04/ /04/ /04/ /05/ /05/ /05/ /05/ /05/ /06/ /06/ /06/ /06/ /07/05 Fresh pork s 2009 average prices have decreased considerably The year (most recent 52 weeks) started at $2.74 (w/e 7/6/08) and ended at $2.57 a 17 drop per pound If we extend the year one extra week, the price is $2.41 an additional 16 lower Furthermore, in direct holiday comparisons, July 4 th was $2.41 this year versus $2.74 last year (-33 per pounds) Fresh Pork - Average Retail Price per Pound $2.95 $2.75 $2.74 $2.87 Easter* $2.66 $2.55 $2.35 $2.15 $2.36 $2.57 $2.41 $1.95 $ Weeks Weeks Source: FreshLook syndicated meatcase grocery data Total U.S. 52 weeks ending June 2009 plus July 4 th 2009 *Easter last year was $2.74 7

8 And are lower than the average retail prices for the last four years Fresh Pork Average Retail Price $2.62 YTD through 7/12/09 8 Source: FreshLook syndicated meatcase grocery data Total U.S. Calendar Years (YTD through 7/12/09)

9 Last year, we saw a share shift away from beef towards chicken This has stabilized at the species level in the first half of 2009 Within species, shifts are still occurring by segment (more to follow) Dollar Share 26 wks ending June 2009 Percentage Point Change Turkey 3.4% Ham 2.6% Dinner Sausage 6.4% Fresh Pork 14.5% Chicken 22.0% Lamb/Veal 1.2% Beef 49.2% (Ground = 18%) Last Review Calendar Year 2008 vs This Review Mid-Year (26 wks) 2009 vs Beef = -0.6 pts -0.1 pts. Chicken = +0.5 pts Same Fresh Pork = Same -0.1 pts. Dinner Sausage = +0.1 pts +0.1 pts. Turkey = +0.2 pts +0.1 pts. Ham = -0.1 pts Same Lamb/Veal = -0.1 pts Same 9 Source: FreshLook syndicated meatcase grocery data Total U.S. 26 weeks ending June 2009 vs. year ago; plus calendar year 2008 vs. 2007

10 While beef and chicken pound share also stabilized fresh pork gained another 0.3 share points Tonnage was up for all 3 core species. However, fresh pork tonnage grew at a faster rate, capturing ~18M pounds of total fresh meat performance Pound Share 26 wks ending June 2009 Dinner Turkey Ham Sausage 4.1% 3.8% 5.9% Lamb/Veal 0.6% Percentage Point Change Last Review Calendar Year 2008 vs This Review Mid-Year (26 wks) 2009 vs Beef = -0.5 pts pts. Fresh Pork 16.3% Chicken 29.9% Beef 38.6% (Ground = 18%) Chicken = +0.4 pts. Same Fresh Pork = +0.3 pts pts. Dinner Sausage = -0.1 pts pts. Turkey = +0.1 pts pts. Ham = -0.1 pts pts. Lamb/Veal = -0.1 pts pts. 10 Source: FreshLook syndicated meatcase grocery data Total U.S. 26 weeks ending June 2009 vs. year ago; plus calendar year 2008 vs. 2007

11 Segment Review 11

12 Fresh pork segments are showing healthy tonnage gains Strongest gains are from whole/half loins (low share), ribs and steaks Mid-year performance is even stronger than annualized results for all but chops and steaks Boneless chops are driving the chop performance, particularly in 1 st half of Wks End June Wks End June 2009 Fresh Pork - % Change for Pounds Sold 29.3% 2.5% 2.8% 13.8% 13.0% 7.0% 4.5% 16.9% 12.5% 11.6% 13.0% 7.1% Chops Ribs Roasts Whole/Half Loins Steaks Unflavored Tenderloins % Change FP Features: +5% +5% Flat -6% +20% +5% +7% Flat +2% +15% +22% -7% AO Features: -3% +1% +10% +9% +9% +2% -12% -10% +24% +14% +14% +22% 12 BI Chops: Bnls Chops: +0.2% (26 wks); +2.0% (52 wks) +6.5% (26 wks); +4.1% (52 wks) FP = Front Page Feature AO = All Other Features

13 Other fresh pork segments, except value added, are growing Ground pork and offals show even higher gains in the 1 st half of 2009 Valued added declined across segments; ready to cook was also down the 1 st half of this year after gains in Wks End June Wks End June 2009 Fresh Pork - % Change for Pounds Sold 16.4% 13.8% 5.1% 0.9% 3.1% % -3.9% *Lost front page support -2.8% -5.6% -9.6% Ground Offals Value Added Ready To Cook Dinner Entrees/ % Change Ready To Heat All Features: Up Up Up Down Fairly Stable* -4.2% -4.0% Specialty Cuts

14 Mid-year tonnage shares show a shift from bone-in chops towards ribs Whole/half loins and steaks also gained share while value added declined Fresh Pork Pound Share 26 wks ending June 2009 Percentage Point Change Mid-Year 09 vs. 08 Wh/Half Loins 2.5% Ground 1.0% Offals Unflav. 5.0% Tend. 2.4% Steaks 4.7% Roasts 18.5% Value Added 4.7% Ribs 26.4% BI Chops 21.2% Bnls Chops 12.8% BI Chops Bnls Chops Ribs Roasts Whole/Half Loins Steaks Unflavored Tenderloins Ground Offals Value Added -1.5 pts -0.1 pts pts. Same +0.4 pts pts pts pts pts pts. Source: FreshLook syndicated meatcase grocery data Total U.S. 26 weeks ending June 2009 vs. year ago 14

15 Fresh pork dollars increased despite reduced retails Ribs had the greatest price decline; strong tonnage ensured dollar gains Interestingly, steak performance was not influenced by price Whole/half loins did well although low share overall (promotional item) 26 Wks End June Wks End June 2009 Fresh Pork - % Change for Dollar Sales 31.5% 21.1% 1.3% 2.4% 8.4% 9.7% 5.8% 5.9% 12.8% 8.9% 7.4% 3.2% Chops Ribs Roasts Whole/Half Loins (Low Share) Steaks Unflavored Tenderloins Price Change: BI Chops: Bnls Chops: Flat (26 wks); +2.1% (52 wks); price = Flat (26 wks); flat (52 wks) +2.8% (26 wks); +2.6% (52 wks); price = -13 (26 wks); -5 (52 wks)

16 Other fresh pork segments also did well with increased retails All but dinner entrees and specialty cuts were up in dollars 26 Wks End June Wks End June 2009 Fresh Pork - % Change for Dollar Sales 22.1% 18.6% 10.1% 7.3% 1.3% 1.0% 4.1% 6.9% -1.1% -6.1% -5.6% -2.8% Ground Offals Value Added Ready To Cook Dinner Entrees/ Ready To Heat Specialty Cuts Price Change:

17 Mid-year dollar shares show a shift away from chops and value added with a shift towards ribs, whole/half loins and other segments Fresh Pork Dollar Share 26 wks ending June 2009 Percentage Point Change Mid-Year 09 vs. 08 Ground 1.1% Offals 2.9% Unflav. Tend. 4.0% Steaks 3.6% Wh/Half Loins 2.0% Roasts 13.9% Value Added 8.6% Ribs 24.2% BI Chops 20.8% Bnls Chops 17.9% BI Chops Bnls Chops Ribs Roasts Whole/Half Loins Steaks Unflavored Tenderloins Ground Offals Value Added -1.0 pts pts pts pts pts pts pts pts pts pts. Source: FreshLook syndicated meatcase grocery data Total U.S. 26 weeks ending June 2009 vs. year ago 17

18 - Beef - Beef experienced good tonnage gains across lead segments Mid-year 2009 gains outperform annualized gains for all but value added and ribs (small volume overall) 26 Wks End June Wks End June % 4.8% Beef - % Change for Pounds Sold 7.7% 4.3% 3.4% 2.4% 3.5% 1.5% 1.6% 0.8% -5.2% -5.6% Ground Steaks Roasts Ribs Offals Value Added % Change: FP Features: +24% +12% +2% -1% +2% +2% AO Features -1% +3% +3% +9% +9% +7% 18 Source: FreshLook syndicated meatcase grocery data Total U.S. 26 and 52 weeks ending June 2009 vs. year ago performance FP = Front Page features; AO = All Other features *Growth from stew meat; other value added down

19 Beef dollars were also up Good gains overall with particularly strong growth from ground beef All segments except steaks experienced increased pricing 26 Wks End June Wks End June 2009 Beef - % Change for Dollar Sales 9.6% 9.8% 1.9% 1.0% 9.4% 5.5% 2.7% 8.0% 7.3% 3.8% 2.3% -0.1% Price Change: Ground Steaks Roasts Ribs Offals Value Added Source: FreshLook syndicated meatcase grocery data Total U.S. 26 and 52 weeks ending June 2009 vs. year ago performance 19

20 Mid-year shares show a shift towards ground beef and roasts This has come at the expense of steaks, ribs and value added Ribs 2.0% Roasts 16.6% Beef - Pound Share 26 wks ending June 2009 Offals 2.1% Value Added 4.9% Steak 28.4% Ground 46.0% Percentage Point Change Mid-Year 09 vs. 08 Pounds Dollars Ground +0.3 pts pts. Steaks -0.2 pts pts. Roasts +0.4 pts pts. Ribs -0.3 pts pts. Offals Same Same Value Added -0.2 pts pts. Source: FreshLook syndicated meatcase grocery data Total U.S. 26 weeks ending June 2009 vs. year ago 20

21 - Chicken - Good gains across segments particularly for breast meat (boneless and bone-in) Other parts and value added also experienced good tonnage gains 26 Wks End June Wks End June 2009 Chicken - % Change for Pounds Sold 11.6% 9.4% 8.6% 9.3% 3.3% 4.4% 0.1% 2.4% Breast Meat Other Parts Whole Value Added Source: FreshLook syndicated meatcase grocery data Total U.S. 26 and 52 weeks ending June 2009 vs. year ago performance 21 BI Breasts: Bnls Breasts: +10.2% (26 wks); +10.4% (52 wks) +9.2% (26 wks); +8.1% (52 wks) Drumsticks: +3.1% (26 wks); +2.6% (52 wks) Thighs: -1.8% (26 wks); +1.3% (52 wks) Wings: +3.9% (26 wks); +4.7% (52 wks) Leg Quarters: +14.8% (26 wks); +15.4% (52 wks)

22 Chicken dollars were also up Good gains across segments despite price decreases for breast meat Price gains in other parts had minimal impact, if any, on performance 26 Wks End June Wks End June 2009 Chicken - % Change for Dollar Sales 12.8% 5.0% 5.6% 6.1% 8.4% 4.9% 8.5% 1.9% Breast Meat Other Parts Whole Value Added Price Change: Source: FreshLook syndicated meatcase grocery data Total U.S. 26 and 52 weeks ending June 2009 vs. year ago performance BI Breasts: +3.1% (26 wks); +4.5% (52 wks) Drumsticks: +6.3% (26 wks); +7.5% (52 wks) Bnls Breasts: +5.4% (26 wks); +5.8% (52 wks) Thighs: +2.5% (26 wks); +6.6% (52 wks) Wings: +8.8% (26 wks); +9.3% (52 wks) Leg Quarters: +11.1% (26 wks); +15.1% (52 wks)

23 Mid-year shares show mixed results Breast meat is growing in pound share, yet declining in dollars This pound growth is coming at the expense of other parts and whole birds Chicken - Pound Share 26 wks ending June 2009 Percentage Point Change Mid-Year 09 vs. 08 Value Added 5.4% All Other* 3.1% Pounds Dollars Bnls Breast Meat +1.0 pts pts. BI Breast Meat +0.4 pts pts. Whole 20.0% Other Parts 31.3% Bnls Breasts 30.4% BI Breasts 9.8% Other Parts - Drumsticks - Thighs - Wing - Leg Quarters -0.6 pts pts pts pts pts pts. Same -0.2 pts pts pts. Whole -1.1 pts pts. Value Added +0.3 pts pts. 23 Source: FreshLook syndicated meatcase grocery data Total U.S. 26 weeks ending June 2009 vs. year ago *All Other = combo 1.5%, 1% and 0.6%

24 Summary Mid-year meatcase performance was up driven by increased performance across all three core species Fresh pork drove tonnage increases (reduced average price) while chicken and beef experienced slightly higher dollar gains Good growth was also seen for ham and turkey Species share was stable overall in dollars and pounds; fresh pork experienced higher tonnage shares Within fresh pork, all segments (except value added) were up Ribs, whole/half loins and steaks had the highest gains capturing share from chops and value added; boneless chops outperformed bone-in Within beef, lead segments were all up. For the most part mid-year gains outperformed annualized gains with increased pricing for all but steaks All chicken segments were up breast meat performance grew with reduced pricing. Other parts also did well despite increased pricing 24