Updates & Milestones re: Peak Demand Reduction. EEAC Consultants (with PA contributions) (Revised, 3/13/17)

Transcription

1 Updates & Milestones re: Peak Demand Reduction EEAC Consultants (with PA contributions) (Revised, 3/13/17)

2 Key Work Streams in Following the Analytical Framework Cost-Effectiveness Framework and AESC Study Demonstrations Evaluation of Demonstrations, Including Evaluation Planning Planning for the Plan 2

3 Analytical Framework where are we in the process? The PAs are currently field testing and evaluating solutions Identify the problems Evaluate solutions First round of demonstration projects are in the field Solutions are actively being evaluated, producing data on savings values and customer engagement/satisfaction Analyze costs, risks, and benefits Collecting costs and savings from 2016 projects, will feed into cost-effectiveness models Next Steps: Identify the problems Identify any additional barriers and opportunities arising from demonstration projects, work with system planning to identify T&D areas of constraint Evaluate solutions Revise offerings from 2016, demonstrate new solutions in and 2018; evaluation plan is set through 2018 Analyze costs, risks, benefits Develop cost-effectiveness framework by the end of, ensure all benefits are being accurately captured, next Avoided Energy Cost Study (AESC) to kickoff in summer 3

4 Analysis of Strategy Options to Obtain Value from Demand Reductions System-level (regional system) and state-level options ISO market resource (bid into the markets) vs. a state resource or utility resource Some wholesale level options (which are likely mutually exclusive): Price: Forward Capacity Market (FCM). Bid into the FCM, receive FCM revenues (to fund programs), and put downward pressure on prices as part of FCM auctions (but note under new rules bidders have a must offer obligation in the energy market and may face penalties under pay for performance; other options to explore) Amount: Installed Capacity Requirement (ICR) and forecast. Reduce the ICR, then states would need to buy less capacity (but note demand resources are reconstituted if bid in) Some retail level options: $ Cost Allocation: ICAP Tag. Reduce demand in peak hour, thereby reducing the share of capacity costs to the load serving entity and some larger customers (the total system cost would not decrease but the share of total system costs paid by MA would) Customer: Reduce customer costs by reducing demand charges and provide other value 4

5 Cost-Effectiveness Framework where are we in the process? Q Q Q Q Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q Review Other Cost Effectiveness Models Presentation to EEAC Peak Demand Subcommittee Cost Effectiveness Issue Discussions 1 Developing/Modifying Cost Effectiveness Framework Present Final Draft Cost Effectiveness Framework to Subcommittee End of AESC Study Assess Cost Effectiveness of Potential Programs RFP and Scope Vendor Selected, Study Commence Results 1. PAs, consultants, and experts continue ad-hoc conversations on cost-effectiveness issues, including: persistence and measure life, impact of participating and not participating in ISO capacity market, treatment of avoided distribution costs, and timing of counting benefits. 5

6 Demonstration Projects PA Residential C&I Small Mid Large National Grid WiFi Tstat DLC WiFi Tstat DLC WiFi Tstat DLC Interruptible load (Central A/C) approaches Eversource EMS Lighting/HVAC controls WiFi Tstat DLC Software & Controls Onsite training Process audits Batteries Thermal storage Software & Controls On-site training Process audits Real time info Batteries Thermal storage Demand response CLC WiFi Tstat DLC (Central A/C) Behavioral DLC on DMSHP, window A/C BTM thermal storage BTM thermal storage Unitil Battery Storage for existing solar PV systems Operations Changes to Reduce Demand Key DLC Direct Load Control DMSHP Ductless Mini-Split Heat Pumps BTM Behind the Meter EMS Energy Management System Black Text 2016 Projects that have been evaluated and will continue in and Blue Text Approved and 2018 projects. Red Text New Demonstrations pending DPU review and approval 6

7 Evaluation Plans Residential & Small C&I Demonstration Project Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2018 Feb 2018 National Grid Residential Thermostat National Grid Residential Wi-Fi Enabled National Grid Small and Medium C&I Thermostat Eversource Energy Small and Medium C&I Thermostat Cape Light Compact Residential Unitil Residential Battery P P P, I P P F P P P P F P P, I P F P F P P P F P, I F DR Season P Interim Process Evaluation Reports (e.g., summaries of enrollment or post-event surveys, analysis of opt-out data) I Interim Impact Evaluation Reports (e.g., partial season estimate of demand and energy savings) F Final Report (incorporates process and impact evaluation elements) 7

8 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Evaluation Plans (con t) Large C&I 2018 PA Demonstration Project CLC Thermal Storage (Ice) t p d f Eversource Thermal Storage (Ice and Phase Change Material) t p d f Unitil C&I Software Based Demand Shifting Program t p d f p Eversource Software and Controls t p d f p d f National Grid C&I Connected Solutions* t p d f p d f Eversource Active DR for large C&I* t p d f p d f Eversource Battery Storage t p d f *DR projects and perhaps other may require ongoing curtailment assessment DR project deployed t Test run of data availability. d Draft reporting Evaluation point p Process f Final reporting DPU funding decision will drive the program deployment and evaluation schedule Schedule includes mid-stream process evaluation activities Schedule seeks to provide all evaluation work possible for the Fall EEAC meeting and then again for the April three-year planning window 8

9 2018 Demonstration Projects & Program Design Conversations Date Activity January 2018 Review final evaluation results received in December and preliminary evaluations received to date End of Jan 2018 End of Feb 2018 March April 2018 Discussions on lessons learned and takeaways from evaluations Deeper dive, review any new final evaluation results, discussions of lessons learned and any modifications for 2018 demonstrations Ongoing discussions about and develop designs of potential cost-effective demand programs and additional demonstration projects for April draft of Three- Year Plan 9

10 Bringing the Pieces Together in December - March 2018 Analysis and Strategic Options Cost- Effectiveness Framework Demonstrations Plan (April Draft), Summer 2018 Demonstrations AESC Avoided Cost Study Evaluation Results Sharing of Experience and Lessons Learned 10

11 Peak Demand Reduction (PDR) Summary Timeline Q Q Q Q Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q Wholesale Market Research and Expert Meetings Identify Problems and Drivers Review and Evaluate Initial Recommendations Analyze potential costs, risks, and benefits See March 2016 Report and June EEAC Meeting Materials See March 2016 Report and June and Oct. Meeting Materials Proposed new demos Review 2016 Demos Research and Develop CE Framework See Cost Effectiveness Timeline for tasks AESC Study RFP and Scope Study Results Implement and Evaluate 2016 Demos Evaluation results received Implement and Evaluate Demos See Eval Schedule for specific timeline Implement and Evaluate 2018 Demos Assess potential cost effective programs and/or projects for draft Three-Year Plan April 11Draft

12 APPENDIX Demonstration Projects by PA & Quarterly Activity Schedule 12

13 Demand Reduction Quarterly Activity Schedule - Q1 Subcommittee Meeting February 23 National Grid and Compact present evaluated results of 2016 Demonstration Projects and plans for Compact present on proposed budget and project modifications that require EEAC and DPU review Unitil and Eversource present on status of DPU review and update on pre-implementation progress.** Eversource present on demand efforts that do not require DPU review. Review draft evaluation plan (contingent upon timely execution of contract with vendor and after development of plan in coordination with EEAC Evaluation Consultant) EEAC Peak Demand Reduction Meeting March 15 Presentation by National Grid and Compact on Evaluated Results of 2016 Demonstration Projects and Adjustments/Plan for. Compact will seek EEAC support on its proposed budget and peak demand project modifications that will require DPU approval. Update on status on DPU proceeding for Unitil and Eversource Demonstration Projects. Eversource presentation on demand efforts through EE programs that do not require additional DPU review. 13

14 Demand Reduction Quarterly Activity Schedule - Q2 Subcommittee Meeting May 25 (subject to change) PAs will update Subcommittee on status of DPU proceedings for Eversource, Unitil and Compact. PAs will present on any new information regarding demonstration projects. Demonstration Project Implementation PAs will begin to implement all approved summer demonstration projects Recruiting customers Running events Collecting data and feedback 14

15 Demand Reduction Quarterly Activity Schedule - Q3 Subcommittee Meeting Sept 28 (subject to change) PAs will update Subcommittee on status of DPU proceedings for Eversource, Unitil and Compact. PAs will present on summer demonstration projects, including data from available interim evaluations Eversource will present on /2018 winter demonstration projects (subject to timely DPU approval) Demonstration Project Implementation PAs will continue to implement all approved summer demonstration projects Running events Collecting data and feedback Evaluate PAs commit to working with the vendor to complete evaluations consistent with the evaluation plan schedule developed in collaboration with the EEAC Evaluation Consultant, in order to have timely results to inform the April 2018 draft of the Three-Year Plan. The EEAC Consultants have also noted the importance of having timely evaluation results and lessons learned to inform the summer 2018 demonstrations. Scope and RFP for AESC study developed Timing based on previous AESC schedule 15

16 Demand Reduction Quarterly Activity Schedule - Q4 EEAC Meeting and/or Workshop - November Subcommittee December 7 (subject to change) Presentation on and discussion of available demonstration projects quantitative and qualitative results Discuss lessons learned from 2016 and demonstration projects to date Finalize draft cost-effectiveness framework PAs, EEAC consultants, and other experts will present a final draft framework to the EEAC Subcommittee by the end of AESC study vendor selected and commence study 16

17 Demand Reduction Quarterly Activity Schedule - Q Subcommittee Meeting TBD Presentation on final demonstration project quantitative, qualitative, and evaluated results Final Evaluation Results will be completed and available consistent with the timeline set forth in the Evaluation Plan. Final evaluations will be shared with the consultants as soon as the PAs receive the results. Discuss lessons learned Overview of 2018 demonstration projects, including modifications based on lessons learned from 2016 and Councilor feedback to help inform plan Prepare initial draft of peak demand reduction initiatives, programs, or projects (as appropriate) for plan Analyze results from evaluated projects and determine whether a program or additional demonstrations are appropriate. Review budget needs for continuing demonstration projects first implemented in 2018 (if any) during 2019 and beyond. AESC study results end of Q1 Timing based on previous AESC study 17