Long-Term Reliability Assessment

Transcription

1 Long-Term Reliability Assessment Key Findings and Long-Term Issues John Moura, Director of Reliability Assessment

2 Topics Covered Today Background on NERC s Long-Term Reliability Assessment Emerging and Long-Term Reliability Issues Highlights and Key Findings from 10-Year Projections Resource Adequacy Assessments Reserve Margins Probabilistic Indices 2 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

3 Background Peak demand forecasts Resource adequacy Transmission adequacy Key issues and emerging trends impacting reliability Technical challenges Evolving market practices Potential legislation/regulation Regional self-assessment Ad-hoc special Assessments 3 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

4 Reliability Assessment Timeline PC Endorsement MRC Review & Comment BOT Approval Data Receive RAS Peer Review NERC Management Review Publish Summer Assessment Oct Apr May Jun MRC Review & Comment Summer Assessment Data Request Open Workshop RAS Peer Review PC Comment & Endorsement NERC Management PC Review Endorsement BOT Approval MRC Review & Comment Publish LTRA BOT Approval Data Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Management Nov Dec LTRA Data Request Receive RAS Peer Review NERC Review Jun Oct Nov Dec Publish Publish Winter Winter Assessment Winter Assessment Data Request 4 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

5 Assessment Areas Assessment Areas based on planning and operating functions 5 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

6 Long-Term Reliability Issues Change in Resource Mix Fossil-Fired Generation Retirements: Capacity and Security Issues Increasing Variable Generation: Planning and Operating Challenges Demand-Side Management: Demand Response and Energy Efficiency Transmission Needs: Siting and Permitting, Alignment with Generation Environmental Regulations Air, Water, and Waste Regulations Potential C0 2 Regulations Other RPS requirements Potential Operational Risks Associated with Interaction of Special Protection Schemes/Remedial Action Schemes Global Supply Chains and Fuel Reliability Assessment of Fault-Induced Delayed Voltage Recovery (FIDVR) Aging Infrastructure Coordinated Cyber / Physical Attacks on Critical Infrastructure* 6 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

7 Gigawatts (GW) Key Finding: Fossil-Fired Generation Retirements Significant Fossil-Fired Generator Retirements Over Next Five Years Cumulative retirements between 2012 and 2022 Slightly larger impacts than our 2011 generator retirement study Confirmed Unconfirmed 7 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

8 GW Key Finding: Fossil-Fired Generation Retirements Significant Fossil-Fired Generator Retirements Over Next Five Years Assessment Area view reveals high-impact regions Confirmed Retirements 2022 Projected Retirements 8 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

9 GW Key Finding: Fossil-Fired Generation Retirements Significant Fossil-Fired Generator Retirements Over Next Five Years Assessment Area view reveals high-impact regions MISO, MRO-SaskPower, PJM projected to retire over 10% of all capacity resources % 13.1% 11.9% % 6.2% 1.7% 6.0% 1.7% 5.1% 5.1% 4.8% 2022 Confirmed Retirements 2022 Projected Retirements Percentage of 2013 Anticipated Resources (Peak Season) 9 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

10 GW Key Finding: Generation Retrofits Long-Term Generator Maintenance Outages for Environmental Retrofits Can Impact Reliability During Shoulder Months NERC Total: 158,434 MW, 339 Electric Generation Units Confirmed - Total Peak Capacity (MW) Unconfirmed - Total Peak Capacity (MW) Note: Unconfirmed retrofit outages include projections of 316(b) of the Clean Water Act compliance activities 10 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

11 GW Key Finding: Natural Gas Dependency % Gas Capacity Compared to Total Internal Demand Increased Dependence on Natural Gas for Electricity Generation % % % % % % % Conceptual Future-Planned % Gas Capacity 11 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

12 Gigawatts (GW) Key Finding: Coal-to-Gas Fuel Switching Coal-to-Gas Fuel Switching in Progress and Continues in the 10-year Horizon Projected Gas-Fired Capacity: +40 GW Projected Coal/Oil Capacity Net Reductions: -35 GW Unconfirmed Coal/Oil Capacity Retirements : GW RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

13 Gigawatts (GW) Key Finding: Increase in Renewables Renewables Represent Largest Growth of Installed Capacity Introducing New System Planning and Operational Challenges Growth in Expected On-Peak Capacity Hydro Pumped Storage Geothermal Wind Biomass Solar 13 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

14 Accommodating High-Levels of Variable Generation Reliably integrating these resources into the bulk power system will require significant changes to traditional methods used for system planning and operation Forecasting Flexibility Transmission Variable Fuels Must Be Used When Available Forecast is only information; operator must make informed decisions It s the ramps, not the ripples Methods for calculating expected on-peak capacity More Ancillary Services Larger Balancing Authorities Flexible Resources Storage PHEV Leverage fuel diversity of other variable resources Interconnect variable energy resources in remote areas Construct/site/permit transmission to deliver power across long distances 14 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

15 IVGTF - Completed Steps Completed Tasks 1-1 Standards Models of Variable Generation 1-2 Methods to Model and Calculate Capacity of Variable Generation for Resource Adequacy Planning 1-4 Flexibility Requirements and Metrics for Variable Generation 1-5 Potential Reliability Impacts of Emerging Flexible Resources 1-8 Reliability Impacts of Distributed Resource 2-1 Variable Generation Power Forecasting for Operations 2-3 Ancillary Services and BA Solutions 2-4 Operating Practices, Procedures, and Tools 15 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

16 Key Finding: Resource Challenges in Texas 16% 14% Increased Risk of Capacity Deficiencies in ERCOT; More Resources are Quickly Needed to Minimize Risk of Firm Load Shedding and Increase Reserve Margins 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% ANTICIPATED PROSPECTIVE ADJUSTED POTENTIAL NERC REFERENCE 16 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

17 GW Key Finding: Resource Challenges in Texas ERCOT has a High Risk of Capacity Deficiencies; More Resources are Quickly Needed to Minimize Risk of Firm Load Shedding and Increase Reserve Margins % Peak Demand Annual Growth Rate Anticipated Capacity Resources Peak Demand 17 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

18 Gigawatts (GW) Key Finding: Demand-Side Management Significant Increases in Demand Side Management Continue to Offset Future Resource Needs while Providing More Flexibility for System Operators 1,030 1,020 1,010 1, Total Internal Demand to to increase by by ,000 GW MW Demand Response increases by by 2626,000 GW to MW 61 GW Energy Efficiency increase by by 2013,800 GW MW DSM offsets 6 years of growth DR (Load-Modifying) DR (Resource) Energy Efficiency Net Internal Demand Total Internal Demand 18 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

19 Megawatts (MW) Key Finding: Demand-Side Management Significant Increases in Demand Side Management Continue to Offset Future Resource Needs while Providing More Flexibility for System Operators 11.6% 16,000 14, % 7.5% 8.7% 7.1% 8.0% 7.0% 7.0% 12,000 10, % 4.6% 3.0% 2.9% 1.9% 2.2% 2.2% 2.7% 3.9% 3.5% 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, PJM MISO NPCC SERC WECC FRCC ERCOT SPP MRO Total Peak Demand Response (Supply and Demand-Side) Percent of Total Internal Demand 19 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

20 Circuit Miles Key Finding: Transmission Overall Growth of Transmission Infrastructure Responding to Increased Plans to Integrate and Deliver New Resources 21,000 20,000 19,000 18,000 17,000 16,000 15,000 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Industry continues to meet higherthan-average 5-year plans Historical average of transmission built within any given consecutive 5- year period between 1990 and 2012 is approximately 7,000 miles Year Outlook Actual Miles Added Over 5-Year Period 20 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

21 Key Finding: Resources Generally Sufficient 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% 2022 In Most Areas, Resources are Sufficient to Meet Reliability Targets; Some Uncertainties Remain in the Latter Years of the Assessment Period Anticipated Prospective Adjusted Potential NERC Reference Margin Level 21 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

22 hours/year MWh/TWh Probabilistic Indices: A Next Step for the LTRA NEW ENGLAND 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Report 2012 Report LTRA Anticipated Reserve Margin LTRA Prospective Reserve Margin ProbA Adjusted Planning Res. Margin Report 2012 Report LOLH (hours/year) EUE (ppm) Report LTRA ProbA 2010 Report 2012 Report Anticipated Reserve Margin 18.8% 21.6% 30.8% 21.2% Prospective Reserve Margin 20.0% 22.6% 30.8% 21.2% Forecast Planning Res. Margin 10.9% 12.2% 21.9% 13.1% Adjusted Planning Res. Margin 30.5% 21.0% EUE (MWh) EUE (ppm) LOLH (hours/year) RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

23 Next Steps 2013 Long-Term Reliability Assessment is in Development Preliminary Data and Information has been submitted to NERC Launching the Long-Term Reliability Issues Survey and Risk Assessment (July) Tool for crowd sourcing SMEs across NERC s Planning and Operating Technical Committees Identify key insights on long-term challenges from stakeholders Informs NERC of focus areas for LTRA, as well as follow-on special assessments, task force formation, risk priorities for RISC. Technical Committee Review (September) Report Published (November) 23 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

24 Questions?

25 Existing Reports and Background Accommodating High Levels of Variable Generation, %20Accommodating%20High%20Levels%20of%20Variable%20Generation.pdf Standard Models for Variable Generation Flexibility Requirements and Potential Metrics for Variable Generation, Potential Reliability Impacts of Emerging Flexible Resources, Variable Generation Power Forecasting for Operations, Methods to Model and Calculate Capacity Contributions of Variable Generation for Resource Adequacy Planning, Ancillary Service and Balancing Authority Area Solutions to Integrate Variable Generation, Operating Practices, Procedures, and Tools, Interconnection Requirements for Variable Generation: Reliability Standards for the Bulk Electric Systems of North America, 25 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY