Emerging markets the equities perspective. Scott Berg, T. Rowe Price
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1 Emerging markets the equities perspective Scott Berg, T. Rowe Price
2 Audience voting about to begin Proudly supported by our Gold Industry Partner
3 Question What is your fund's weight in Emerging Markets? a) 0-10% b) 10-20% c) 20 30% d) 30% +
4 Question What has been the magnitude of the change over the last 5 years? a) Reduced b) Flat c) Increased by <10% d) Increased by more than 10%
5 Current Views on Global Equity Markets The top down wall of worry The echo effects of the global financial crisis will be with us for years to come, but the world is recovering Anemic growth in developed markets, emerging market demand robust. Inflation is a growing concern everywhere. Developed market sovereign risk is an ongoing concern. The bottom up opportunity Equity valuations are reasonable. Free cash flow levels and profitability are sound and improving. Corporate balance sheets are strong, but. Durability of profit margins is a key question for markets.
6 Question What is the weight of Emerging Market GDP as a proportion of world GDP? a) 15% b) 20% c) 25% d) 35%
7 Emerging Markets Projected to Gain Share 70 EM Shares of Global Totals Current and Projected as of 30 June MSCI ACWI Market Capitalization 55% 59% 50 GDP (in U.S. $) 44% 49% % 35% 31% % 19% 0 Current 2020 Projected 2030 Projected Source: Factset, IMF, World Bank, World Federation of Exchanges, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research
8 Structural Changes in Profitability, Growth 18% 16% Return on Equity 31 January 1997 through 30 June 2011 MSCI Emerging Markets ROE MSCI World ROE 10% 8% Real GDP Growth (Annual % Change) Actual data 1981 through 2010, IMF forecasts 2011 through 2016 As of 11 April 2011 Advanced Economies Emerging and Developing Economies World 14% 14.6% 6% 12% 12.1% 4% 10% 2% 8% 0% 6% -2% 4% ROE projections for 2010 and 2011 are from Morgan Stanley Source: MSCI, IMF, Morgan Stanley -4% EM profitability has been on a structural upward trend and EM companies have surpassed developed world peers on an ROE basis While EM economies account for a high and rising percentage of global GDP, they are generating an even larger share of global economic growth.
9 Estimated GDP Growth Healthier Recovery Paths Are Uneven 12% 2010 Budget Balance vs. Estimated GDP Growth As of 30 June % Country CPI (Y/Y % Change) 30 June 2007 through 30 June % 6% 3% U.S. U.K. Spain France India Canada Italy China Turkey Brazil Mexico Indonesia Russia Germany Australia 15% 10% 5% Brazil Russia China India U.S.A. Japan U.K. Germany 0% -3% Ireland Japan Portugal 0% Greece -6% -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% Source: The Economist, UBS Budget Balance Healthier -5% Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Substantial budget shortfalls and high unemployment rates in the developed world will continue to be a headwind to economic growth. Emerging Market growth has remained robust, leading to rising inflation levels and higher interest rates. We believe that long term stability is the target of EM central banks
10 Basis Points Improved Emerging Market Debt Positions Emerging Markets vs. G7 Public Debt (% of GDP) 30 April 2010 G7 Countries Emerging and developing economies EM Sovereign Spreads Over U.S. Treasuries Emerging Markets Bond Index Global 30 June Emerging markets are poised to benefit from better fiscal conditions in comparison to the developed world and to their own history. The re-financing of debt in local currency (as opposed to Dollars) reduces the risk of crisis catalysed by currency depreciation. Source: IMF
11 Emerging Market Valuations Are Reasonable As of 30 June 2011 Price/Earnings Ratio (x) Price/Book Value (x) 29 MSCI Emerging Markets Index IBES Average 12-Month P/E MSCI World Index IBES Average 12-Month P/E MSCI Emerging Markets P/BV MSCI World P/BV 24 Long-Term Median = 16.2x 3.5 Long-Term Median = 2.4x Long-Term Median = 12.6x Long-Term Median = 1.8x 0.5 Jan-90 Jan-93 Jan-96 Jan-99 Jan-02 Jan-05 Jan-08 Jan-11 EM Valuations are attractive, particularly following weakness in the year to date. Valuation differentials between developed and emerging markets have narrowed. Narrower discounts may be justified, by evolving sovereign factors and relative growth prospects Sources: IBES, FactSet, MSCI
12 EM Returns Driven by Earnings Growth As of 30 June Global Equity Market Returns (past 10 years) Global Equity Market Correlations (1987 through 2009) 500 MSCI World (+57.63%) MSCI Emerging Markets (393.38%) 10-Year Return vs: Starting Valuation EPS CAGR 400 Developed Markets Emerging Markets Year Return vs: Starting Valuation EPS CAGR 100 Developed Markets Emerging market equity returns have been driven by EPS growth, but valuation also matters, particularly at the extremes. Developed world equity returns are more correlated with starting valuations multiple contraction over he past 10 years has been a headwind. Source: Factset, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research Emerging Markets
13 Summary Trends in economic growth and new equity issuance suggest that emerging market shares of world market cap will continue to rise Emerging markets will be an important source of growth and stock ideas for global equity portfolios, particularly in a lower growth world. The drivers of EM outperformance in comparison to the developed world decreased sovereign risk, structurally higher profitability, and better relative growth prospects are likely to persist over the medium and long term Relative valuations will favor indirect exposure to the EM economies via developed market companies at certain stages of the cycle. However, direct and indirect exposure are both necessary to capture the full potential of EM growth. While there are downside risks, such as the potential for significantly higher inflation and higher interest rates, these risks are more than offset by bottomup opportunities.
14 As of 30 June 2011 Figures in USD and trillions where applicable. Equity Market Comparison Europe United Kingdom United States Japan Australia Canada Emerging Markets Brazil Russia India China 1 Year Forward PE Year Forward PE Price/Book Value ROE 13.7% 16.1% 15.6% 7.0% 14.7% 13.4% 15.6% 15.7% 16.3% 16.5% 16.6% EPS Growth 14.3% 22.3% 15.4% 27.0% 22.9% 31.3% 20.3% 28.6% 24.2% 24.4% 20.8% Estimated Net Dividend Yield 3.8% 3.6% 2.0% 2.3% 4.6% 2.5% 2.8% 3.4% 2.2% 1.3% 2.9% Ten Year Rate (Local Currency) % 3.16% 3.09% 1.18% 5.21% 3.04% n/a 6.16% 4.73% 8.54% 4.06% Source: MSCI via Factset 1 Ten Year Rate (Local Currency) is as of 7 July 2011 per The Economist.
15 As of 30 June 2011 A Sovereign Comparison Europe United Kingdom United States Japan Australia Canada Brazil Russia India China Inflation Rate (CPI) 2 2.7% 4.5% 3.6% -0.9% 3.3% 3.7% 6.6% 9.4% 8.9% 5.5% Savings Rate (as a % of GDP) % 13.2% 12.4% 24.3% 26.9% 18.9% 17.1% 29.5% 35.5% 54.3% Investment Rate (as a % of GDP) % 15.6% 16.2% 21.9% 27.3% 21.7% 19.7% 23.9% 39.2% 48.6% Current Account Balance -0.4% -1.8% -3.3% 2.4% -2.4% -2.3% -2.7% 4.8% -3.4% 3.6% (as a % of 2011 GDP) 2 Budget Balance (as a % of 2011 GDP) 2-4.3% -9.0% -9.1% -8.0% -2.5% -3.8% -2.1% -1.5% -4.8% -2.1% Debt to GDP % 69.4% 72.4% 127.8% 7.8% 35.1% 60.8% 1 9.5% % % 1 Short-term Rates % 0.83% 0.15% 0.16% 4.88% 0.92% 12.17% 8.25% 8.19% 6.33% 2010 Real GDP Growth % 1.25% 2.83% 3.94% 2.75% 3.07% 7.49% 3.96% 10.37% 10.30% Projected 2011 Real GDP Growth % 1.66% 2.76% 1.40% 2.97% 2.75% 4.46% 4.83% 8.24% 9.59% 1 As of 12 July 2011 per the CIA World Factbook (2010 est.) 2 As of 7 July 2011 per the The Economist 3 As of April 2011 release of IMF World Economic Outlook Sources: IMF, The Economist, CIA World Factbook
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