MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Outlook
|
|
- Octavia Dixon
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Outlook January 19, 2016 Presented by Joel Kan Mortgage Bankers Association
2 Summary of the MBA Outlook GDP Growth 1.9% 1.8% 2.0% 1.8% 1.8% Inflation 0.1% 1.3% 2.5% 2.2% 2.4% Unemployment 5.3% 4.9% 4.6% 4.5% 4.5% Fed Funds 0.375% 0.625% 1.375% 2.375% 3.375% 10-year Treasury 2.1% 1.8% 2.6% 2.9% 3.3% 30-year Mortgage 3.9% 3.7% 4.5% 4.8% 5.3% New home sales (000s) Existing home sales (000s) 5,237 5,448 5,722 5,954 6,039 Purchase originations ($B) ,092 1,178 1,245 Refi originations ($ B) Total originations ($B) 1,679 1,891 1,571 1,588 1,640 Source: MBA Forecast December
3 Rates and Stock Markets Continue to Show Gains US 10 Year Treasury Yield and Dow Jones Industrials Index DJ Index Yr Yield Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec-16 21,000 20,000 19,000 18,000 17,000 16,000 15,000 Source: Federal Reserve and NYSE 3
4 Dec-2006 Apr-2007 Aug-2007 Dec-2007 Apr-2008 Aug-2008 Dec-2008 Apr-2009 Aug-2009 Dec-2009 Apr-2010 Aug-2010 Dec-2010 Apr-2011 Aug-2011 Dec-2011 Apr-2012 Aug-2012 Dec-2012 Apr-2013 Aug-2013 Dec-2013 Apr-2014 Aug-2014 Dec-2014 Apr-2015 Aug-2015 Dec-2015 Apr-2016 Aug-2016 Global Yields Impacting US Rates Year Treasury Comparison Percent Yield Market value of negativeyielding sovereign, government-related, corporate and securitized debt peaked at $12.2 trillion in June, up from $3.3 billion in July 2014, according to Bloomberg and Barclays US GREAT BRITAIN JAPAN GERMANY Source: Barclays, Bloomberg, CNBC, OECD 4
5 Thousands of jobs Job Growth Still Strong in Average Monthly Payroll Growth 2016 Average = 180,000 jobs (100) (42) (200) (144) (300) (297) (400) (500) Jan - Feb - Mar - Apr (423) May Jun Jul Aug- Sep - Oct - Nov- Nov Source: BLS 5
6 Most Sectors Showing Job Growth December 2016 Change YOY Pct Chg in Payrolls -10.5% Professional and Technical Health Care and Social Assistance Educational Accomodation Financial Management Arts, Entertainment Retail Trade Construction Transportation and Warehousing Other Services Wholesale Trade Government Utilities -0.1% Information -0.4% Manufacturing Mining and Logging 3.2% 2.7% 2.2% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.6% 1.5% 1.3% 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 0.3% -12.0% -10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% Source: BLS 6 6
7 Unemployment/underutilization Rate Participation Rate Unemployment Lower, But So Is Participation Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Civilian Participation Rate: 16 yr + (SA, %) Civilian Unemployment Rate: 16 yr + (SA, %) Unempl+Margin Attach+Part Time Econ Reasons/CLF + Margin Attach (SA,%) Source: BLS 7
8 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11 Q2-11 Q3-11 Q4-11 Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12 Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4-13 Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Wage Growth Increasing Slowly 4.00% ECI and Average Hourly Earnings Year over year pct chg 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% ECI: Wages & Salaries: Civilian Workers (SA, Dec-05=100) % Change - Year to Year Average Hourly Earnings: Total Private Industries (SA, $/Hour) % Change - Year to Year Source: BLS 8
9 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Percent Change Motor Fuel Percent Change Difference in Headline vs Core Inflation Inflation by Select CPI Components Year over year percent change All Items exc Food & Energy (left axis) All Items (left axis) Motor Fuel (right axis) Source: BLS 9
10 Rates Expected to Increase Source: Federal Reserve, Freddie Mac, MBA 10
11 Housing Demand Forecast Source: Census, MBA 11
12 Strong Multifamily Development and Slower Single-Family 2,000 Single and Multi Family Housing Starts SAAR, 000s of units 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Housing Starts: 1 Unit (SAAR, Thous.Units) Housing Starts: Total Multifamily (SAAR, Thous.Units) Source: Census 12
13 Continued Strong House Price Growth 240 Chart of the Week - September 16, 2016 FHFA House Price Indexes (1991Q1 = 100) Expanded-data HPI level in 2007Q All Transactions (rescaled) Purchase Only Expanded Source: FHFA 13
14 Credit Availability - Historical Perspective Expanded Historical Series: Mortgage Credit Availability Index, Index Level by Month (NSA, 3/2012=100) New: Expanded historical series ( ) Data prior to 3/31/2011 based on less frequent and less complete data Data prior to 3/31/2011 was generated using less frequent and less complete data measured at 6-month intervals and extrapolated in the months between for charting purposes. Source: Mortgage Bankers Association; Powered by Ellie Mae s AllRegs Market Clarity 14
15 Modest Year over Year Growth in Purchase Apps Index Purchase Application Index by Week of Year (NSA) Week before & after TRID/KBYO Week of Year Source: MBA Weekly Application Survey 15
16 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Large Balance Loans Lead Purchase Growth 80.0% Purchase Application Trends, by Loan Size Year year percent change in number of loans 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% -20.0% -40.0% <=$150K >$150K and <=$300K >$300K and <=$417k >$417K and <= $625k >$625K and <=$729k >$729K Source: MBA Weekly Application Survey 16
17 Refinance Index Refi Avg Loan Size ($000) Refinance Loan Sizes Tied to Applications Trends in ,500 Refinance Applications and Average Loan Size ,000 2, , , , MBA Volume Application Indexes:Average Loan Size:Total, Refinance(Thous$) MBA: Volume Index: Mortgage Loan Applications for Refinancing(SA, Mar-16-90=100) Source; MBA Weekly Applications Survey 17
18 Q1-85 Q4-85 Q3-86 Q2-87 Q1-88 Q4-88 Q3-89 Q2-90 Q1-91 Q4-91 Q3-92 Q2-93 Q1-94 Q4-94 Q3-95 Q2-96 Q1-97 Q4-97 Q3-98 Q2-99 Q1-00 Q4-00 Q3-01 Q2-02 Q1-03 Q4-03 Q3-04 Q2-05 Q1-06 Q4-06 Q3-07 Q2-08 Q1-09 Q4-09 Q3-10 Q2-11 Q1-12 Q4-12 Q3-13 Q2-14 Cash Out Refinances Slowly Returning 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Distribution of Refinance Activity Percent share of number of Freddie Mac refi loans 83% 89% 40% 30% 42% 20% 10% 12% 0% Refis with 5% Higher Loan Amount (%) Refis with No Change in Loan Amount (%) Refis with Lower Loan Amount (%) Source: Freddie Mac 18
19 Colorado Product Mix in 2015 Colorado US Loan Types Count Share Avg Loan Amt Count Share Avg Loan Amt Conventional Jumbo Loan 11, % $770, , % $861,976 Conventional (any loan other than FHA, VA, FSA, or RHS loans) 142, % $236,611 4,485, % $210,427 FHA-insured (Federal Housing Administration) 35, % $226,613 1,216, % $193,547 VA-guaranteed (Veterans Administration) 24, % $270, , % $244,648 FSA/RHS (Farm Service Agency or Rural Housing Service) 1, % $196, , % $140,540 Total 214, % $266,921 6,771, % $242,741 Home Purchase - Average Loan Amount Refinance - Average Loan Amount $300,000 $300,000 $250,000 $250,000 $200,000 $200,000 $150,000 $150,000 $100,000 $100,000 $50,000 $50,000 $- $- CO Pur Avg US Pur Avg CO Refi Avg US Refi Avg Source: HMDA 19
20 Historical Originations Trends Annual Growth in Home Purchases Annual Growth in Refinances 30% 300% 20% 250% 10% 200% 0% -10% -20% 150% 100% 50% 0% -30% -50% -40% -100% CO Pur Num US Pur Num CO Refi Num US Refi Num Source: HMDA 20
21 4.7% 4.9% 4.7% 4.4% 4.7% 4.6% 4.9% 5.0% 18.6% 19.7% 20.0% 19.1% 19.0% 17.9% 19.4% 22.9% 19.8% 25.4% 26.9% 27.3% 33.0% 29.4% 33.4% 35.9% 43.0% 41.5% 42.7% 50.1% 48.4% 49.2% 45.8% 53.8% Changing Composition of Lending Institutions SHARE ORIGINATIONS VOLUME ($) BY TYPE Large Bank Independent Mortgage Bank Community Bank Credit Union Source: HMDA 21
22 Fully-Loaded Production Expenses ($ per loan) Avg. Fiirm Production Volume ($Ms) IMB Fully-Loaded Production Expenses ($ per loan): $9,000 $700 $8,000 Fully-Loaded Production Expenses ($ per loan) Avg Firm Production Volume ($Ms) $600 $7,000 $6,000 5,815 $500 $5,000 $400 $4,000 $300 $3,000 $2,000 $200 $1,000 $100 $0 4,884 4,810 3,738 3,581 4,376 4,402 5,147 4,677 4,802 4,930 5,837 5,644 5,315 5,118 5,292 5,128 5,163 5,603 5,779 5,818 6,368 6,959 8,025 6,932 6,769 7,000 7,195 6,984 7,080 7,747 7,845 7,120 $0 Q216 Q116 Q415 Q315 Q215 Q115 Q414 Q314 Q214 Q114 Q413 Q313 Q213 Q113 Q412 Q312 Q212 Q112 Q411 Q311 Q211 Q111 Q410 Q310 Q210 Q110 Q409 Q309 Q209 Q109 Q408 Q308 Source: MBA s Quarterly Mortgage Bankers Performance Report,
23 IMB Employee Mix Over Time Source: MBA s Quarterly Mortgage Bankers Performance Report,
24 Percent Mortgage Performance Continuing To Improve Mortgage Delinquency Rates Seasonally adjusted, excludes loans in foreclosure Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q3 30 Days Delq 60 Days Delq 90+ Days Delq 2012-Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q3 Source: MBA National Delinquency Survey 24
25 Percent Elevated Loans in Foreclosure in Judicial Foreclosure States 8.00 Loans in Foreclosure by Dominant Process As percent of loans serviced, based on loan count Q12006 Q22006 Q32006 Q42006 Q12007 Q22007 Q32007 Q42007 Q12008 Q22008 Q42008 Q32008 Q12009 Q22009 Q32009 Q42009 Q12010 Q22010 Q32010 Q42010 Q12011 Q22011 Q32011 Q42011 Q12012 Q22012 Q32012 Q42012 Q12013 Q22013 Q32013 Q42013 Q12014 Q22014 Q32014 Q42014 Q12015 Q22015 Q32015 Q42015 Q12016 Q Q32016 Judicial Only Non-Judicial Only Both Processes Source: MBA National Delinquency Survey 25
26 Recent Loan Vintages Performing Extremely Well 16.00% Trend in Seriously Delinquent Rate (includes 90+ day and loans in foreclosure) 14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% % 0.00% Source: MBA National Delinquency Months Since SurveyOrigination (Jan 1, YYYY = Origination Date) Source: MBA National Delinquency Survey 26
27 Billions of dollars in originations Historical and Forecasted Originations $4,000 Mortgage Originations: $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1, $1,000 $ ,245 1,178 1,092 $ Purchase Refi Source: MBA Forecast December
28 MBA Research Sign-ups and Services Mba.org/PerformanceReport 28
29 Contact Information & MBA Resources Joel Kan Associate Vice President, Industry Surveys and Forecasting MBA Research: RIHA: 29
MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Outlook Eastern Secondary Market Conference 2018
MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Outlook Eastern Secondary Market Conference 2018 February 2018 Presented by Joel Kan Mortgage Bankers Association 1 Summary of the MBA Outlook 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
More informationMBA Economic and Mortgage Market Outlook Spring Mike Fratantoni Chief Economist & Senior Vice President Research & Industry Technology
MBA Economic and Mortgage Market Outlook Spring 2015 Mike Fratantoni Chief Economist & Senior Vice President Research & Industry Technology MBA Economic Outlook 2014 2015 2016 GDP Growth 2.4% 2.5% 2.5%
More informationECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS FEDERAL RESERVE BALANCE SHEET Assets and Liabilities 2-3 REAL ESTATE Construction Spending 4 CoreLogic Home Price Index 5 Mortgage Rates and Applications 6-7 CONSUMER
More informationLunchtime Data Talk. Housing Finance Policy Center. Mortgage Origination Pricing and Volume: More than You Ever Wanted to Know
Housing Finance Policy Center Lunchtime Data Talk Mortgage Origination Pricing and Volume: More than You Ever Wanted to Know Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac Mike Fratantoni, Mortgage Bankers Association October
More informationECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS FEDERAL RESERVE BALANCE SHEET Assets & Liabilities 2-3 LABOR MARKETS Southeast Payroll Employment 4 REAL ESTATE Housing Starts 5 Mortgage Rates 6 MANUFACTURING Industrial
More informationWill The Recovery Hold? By Doug Duncan Vice President and Chief Economist Fannie Mae June 17, 2010
Will The Recovery Hold? By Doug Duncan Vice President and Chief Economist Fannie Mae June 17, 2010 1 Disclaimer Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economics & Mortgage
More informationData current as of: August 5, ,200,000 1,000, , , , , , , , , , , ,000
Forecast Version: Spring 216 Economic Indicators The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a total nonfarm payroll employment increase of 287, in June with the unemployment rate rising.2% to 4.9%. The jobs
More informationMBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan
MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan Economy & Labor Markets Strong Enough, First Rate Hike Expected in December MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Commentary: November 2015 This month s outlook largely mirrors
More informationRising Risks for the Housing Outlook
Rising Risks for the Housing Outlook Master Builders Association of Pierce County October 17, 2018 Robert Dietz, Ph.D. NAHB Chief Economist Population Growth Pierce County population growing faster than
More informationQ Economic Outlook
Q1 Economic Outlook Presented by: Craig Dismuke Chief Economic Strategist cdismuke@viningsparks.com 1/24/ Page 1 Q1 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK A. European Drama, Weak U.S. Growth, and Central Bank Intervention B.
More informationData current as of: April 4, % 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 250, , , ,000 50, , , , , ,000
Forecast current as of: January 213 Economic Indicators U.S. unemployment decreased to 7.7% in February from 7.9% last month, as nonfarm payroll employment increased by 236,. In the previous 3 months,
More informationData current as of: June 3, ,000, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,000
Forecast current as of: Spring 214 Economic Indicators The unemployment rate fell by a large margin (.4 percentage points) in April. Total employment rose by 288, jobs. There were 32, construction jobs
More informationMortgage Industry Outlook: FHLB Des Moines 2018 Mortgage Conference
Mortgage Industry Outlook: FHLB Des Moines 2018 Mortgage Conference April 2018 Presented by Mike Fratantoni Mortgage Bankers Association Purchase Volume Rising: Seasonality Increasing in Importance Source:
More informationStrong Economic Growth, Rate Hikes to Continue
MBA Forecast Commentary Mike Fratantoni, Joel Kan Strong Economic Growth, Rate Hikes to Continue MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Commentary: June 15, 2018 Data have pointed to stronger than expected
More informationHousing and Mortgage Market Update
Housing and Mortgage Market Update VCU Real Estate Trends Conference October 14, 29 Amy Crews Cutts, PhD Deputy Chief Economist Recession Risks Still Elevated, Housing Contraction Ongoing Recession risks
More informationECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS LABOR MARKET Contributions to Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 2 Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Rate 3 MANUFACTURING ISM Manufacturing Index 4 CONSUMERS Light Vehicle
More informationConsumer Price Index, Jobless Claims, Housing Starts Each of These Reports Have Favorable Aspects to Note
Consumer Price Index, Jobless Claims, Housing Starts Each of These Reports Have Favorable Aspects to Note January 19, Asha G. Bangalore agb3@ntrs.com The Consumer Price Index (CPI) held steady in December,
More informationThe Mortgage and Housing Market Outlook
The Mortgage and Housing Market Outlook National Economists Club Washington, DC March 27, 2008 Frank E. Nothaft Chief Economist Recession Risk, Housing Contraction Worsen 1-in-2 chance of recession in
More informationCost Cutting Has Emerged as a Focus of Lender Competitiveness
Cost Cutting Has Emerged as a Focus of Lender Competitiveness Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Published June 21, 2018 2018 Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae. 1 Disclaimer Opinions, analyses, estimates,
More informationKey Labor Market and Economic Metrics
Key Labor Market and Economic Metrics May Update Incorporates Data Available on May 27 th, 2016 This reference is the result of a collaboration between the Bureau of Labor Market Information and Strategic
More informationDecember Employment Report: Further Deterioration of Labor Market Conditions January 9, 2009
Northern Trust Global Economic Research 50 South LaSalle Chicago, Illinois 60603 northerntrust.com Asha G. Bangalore agb3@ntrs.com December Employment Report: Further Deterioration of Labor Market Conditions
More informationHousing and Economic Outlook
Housing and Economic Outlook JANUARY 22, 2013 // 2:30 4:00PM Presenters: David Crowe // NAHB, Washington DC Frank Nothaft // Freddie Mac, McLean, VA David Berson // Nationwide Insurance, Columbus, OH Housing
More informationWill the Recovery Ever End? Certified Financial Planners
Will the Recovery Ever End? Certified Financial Planners Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Senior Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations January 25, 219 Attention: This
More informationHOPE NOW. Snapshot Industry Extrapolations and HAMP Metrics
Snapshot Industry Extrapolations and HAMP Metrics Three Month Q2-215 Q3-215 Q4-215 Q1-216 Q2-216 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Total Completed Modifications 119,658 97,773 84,798 86,167 1,198 41,872 34,815 36,6
More informationRecap of 2017: The Best Year in a Decade
NOVEMBER 217 Recap of 217: The Best Year in a Decade Macroeconomic conditions remained favorable for housing and mortgage markets in 217. Despite challenges, the housing markets remain on track for their
More informationFourth Quarter 2014 Financial Results Supplement
Fourth Quarter 20 Financial Results Supplement February 19, 2015 Table of contents Financial Results Segment Business Information 2 - Annual Financial Results 12 - Single-Family New Funding Volume 3 -
More informationEconomic and Housing Outlook
Economic and Housing Outlook Home Builders Association of Virginia June 22, 2018 Robert Dietz, Ph.D. NAHB Chief Economist Housing Market Growing; Single-Family Lags Tax reform changes Macroeconomics post-tax
More informationThe Stimulus Didn t Work An Overlooked Fact that Needs Mention September 18, 2009
Northern Trust Global Economic Research 0 South LaSalle Chicago, Illinois northerntrust.com Asha G. Bangalore agb@ntrs.com The Stimulus Didn t Work An Overlooked Fact that Needs Mention September 18, 9
More informationHousing and Credit Markets Outlook
Housing and Credit Markets Outlook FTA Revenue Estimating Conference Springfield, IL Amy Crews Cutts, SVP Chief Economist October 7, Equifax Inc. Government Shutdown and Debt Ceiling! As of October 1 st
More informationHousing & Mortgage Market Outlook
Housing & Mortgage Market Outlook 2005 Economic Outlook Symposium Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago December 2005 David W. Berson Vice President & Chief Economist What You Want to Know: We expect economic
More informationHOPE NOW. Snapshot Industry Extrapolations and HAMP Metrics
Snapshot Industry Extrapolations and HAMP Metrics Three Month Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Total Completed Modifications 85,357 89,213 78,302 54,318 56,355 19,400 18,819
More informationU.S. Housing Markets: Looking Back, Looking Forward
U.S. Housing Markets: Looking Back, Looking Forward Dr. Raphael Bostic Assistant Secretary, Office of Policy Development and Research U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Special Thanks Ed
More informationSingle-family home sales and construction are not expected to regain 2005 peaks
Single-family home sales and construction are not expected to regain 25 peaks Millions of units 8. 7. 6. 5. Housing starts (right axis) 4. Home sales (left axis) 3. 2. 1. 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215
More informationEconomic and Housing Outlook
Economic and Housing Outlook Volusia Building Industry Association July 18, 218 Robert Dietz, Ph.D. NAHB Chief Economist Housing Market Growing; Single-Family Lags Tax reform changes Macroeconomics post-tax
More information2010 Economic Forecast: U.S. and State Conditions
2010 Economic Forecast: U.S. and State Conditions Russell R. Evans Director and Research Economist Center for Applied Economic Research Oklahoma State University Stillwater russell.evans@okstate.edu http://www.spears.okstate.edu/caer
More informationRobert D. Cruz, PhD, Chief Economist Miami-Dade County 305-375-1879 cruzr1@miamidade.gov www.miamidade.gov/economicdevelopment Department of Regulatory and Economic Resources Page 1 Local economic indicators
More informationBlack Knight Mortgage Monitor
Black Knight Mortgage Monitor Mortgage Market Performance Observations Data as of May, 2014 Month-end Black Knight First Look May 2014 Total U.S. loan delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due,
More informationWill the Recovery Ever End? Boulder Economic Forecast
Will the Recovery Ever End? Boulder Economic Forecast Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Senior Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations January 17, 219 #COBizOutlook Real
More informationThree-speed recovery. GDP growth. Percent Emerging and developing economies. World
Three-speed recovery GDP growth Percent 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Source: IMF WEO; Milken Institute. Emerging and developing economies Advanced economies World Output is still below
More informationThe US Housing Market Crisis and Its Aftermath
The US Housing Market Crisis and Its Aftermath Asian Development Bank November 16, 2009 Table of Contents Section I II III IV V US Economy and the Housing Market Freddie Mac Overview Business Activities
More informationNVTC. Economic Performance and Outlook
3//11 NVTC The U.S. and Washington Area Economic Performance and Outlook John McClain, AICP, Senior Fellow and Deputy Director, Center for Regional Analysis School of Public Policy, George Mason University
More informationThere has been considerable discussion of the possibility
NationalEconomicTrends February Housing and the R Word There has been considerable discussion of the possibility that ongoing troubles in the housing market could push the economy into recession 1 But
More informationReal Estate Market. Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Presentation to New England REALTORS Conference. February 2, 2010 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Real Estate Market Trends & Outlook Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Presentation to New England REALTORS Conference February 2, 2010 Housing Stimulus Impact Tax Credit
More informationMBA Forecast Commentary Lynn Fisher, Mike Fratantoni, Joel Kan
MBA Forecast Commentary Lynn Fisher, Mike Fratantoni, Joel Kan Purchase Originations Projected to Increase Ten Percent in 2016 MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Commentary: October 2015 In this month s
More informationTHE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK RECESSION AND RECOVERY. Paul Darby Executive Director & Deuty Chief Economist Twitter hashtag: #psforum
THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK RECESSION AND RECOVERY Paul Darby Executive Director & Deuty Chief Economist Darby@conferenceboard.ca US OUTLOOK US recession is coming to an end Q3 likely to be positive due to inventory
More informationCurrent Employment Statistics
Current Employment Statistics October 2017 If you have any questions or seek additional information, please contact: Vermont Department of Labor Economic and Labor Market Information Division 802-828-4202
More informationCapital Markets Update
Capital Markets Update The Forces Transforming Markets November 2007 The Past December 2006 April 2007 The Height of the Market November 2007 Changes in Risk Tolerance Spring 2007 Rating Agencies Tighten
More informationHouse prices in the United States were 14.1 percent
NationalEconomicTrends August How Much Have US House Prices Fallen? House prices in the United States were 11 percent lower in the first quarter of than they were a year earlier, according to a widely
More informationDecline in Economic Activity Larger Than Advance GDP Estimate February 27, 2009
Northern Trust Global Economic Research 5 South LaSalle Chicago, Illinois 663 northerntrust.com Asha G. Bangalore agb3@ntrs.com Decline in Economic Activity Larger Than Advance GDP Estimate February 27,
More informationCurrent Employment Statistics
Current Employment Statistics December 2017 If you have any questions or seek additional information, please contact: Vermont Department of Labor Economic and Labor Market Information Division 802-828-4202
More informationLiquidity Management: Beyond Quantitative Easing
Liquidity Management: Beyond Quantitative Easing June 2014 Agenda 1. Assessing Risk: Current Market Conditions a. Global Macroeconomics b. Monetary Policy c. Quantitative Easing (QE) d. Asset Bubbles e.
More informationEconomic and Banking Outlook. Major issues
/1/9 Economic and Banking Outlook May 9 Major issues Consumer spending recovering? Investment t spending lagging? Housing inventories will take years to clear Bank credit losses will remain high through
More informationEconomic Conditions and Outlook for the U.S. and Greater Kansas City Area
Economic Conditions and Outlook for the U.S. and Greater Kansas City Area Mid-America Planned Giving Council Kansas City, MO January 9, 215 Kelly D. Edmiston Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic
More informationThe Office of Economic Policy HOUSING DASHBOARD. March 16, 2016
The Office of Economic Policy HOUSING DASHBOARD March 16, 216 Recent housing market indicators suggest that housing activity continues to strengthen. Solid residential investment in 215Q4 contributed.3
More informationQUARTERLY FINANCIAL REPORT
QUARTERLY FINANCIAL REPORT Page Key Trends... 2 Executive Summary... 3 Economic Indicators... 4 General Fund... 8 Public Safety & Justice... 10 Land Use, Housing & Transportation... 11 Health & Human Services...
More information2018 Investment and Economic Outlook
2018 Investment and Economic Outlook Presented 3/19/18 Jeffrey Neer, CFA Client Portfolio Manager 410-237-5592 jeffrey.neer@pnc.com 1 Monetary Policy: Key Factors Inflation U.S. U.S. Labor Market 2.4%
More informationThe First Phase of the U.S. Recovery and Beyond
The First Phase of the U.S. Recovery and Beyond James Bullard President and CEO Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Global Interdependence Center Shanghai, China January 11, 2010 Any opinions expressed here
More informationRobert D. Cruz, PhD, Chief Economist
Robert D. Cruz, PhD, Chief Economist Office of Economic Development and International Trade Miami-Dade County cruzr1@miamidade.gov / www.miamidade.gov/oedit Office of Economic Development and International
More informationEmployment Data (establishment)
Table 1: Major Indicators of Labor Market Activity for New Jersey Seasonally Adjusted (thousands) Benchmark Labor Force Data (resident) Current Month Previous Month One Year Ago Net Change Net Change May
More informationThe U.S. Economic Outlook
The U.S. Economic Outlook Gering/Scottsbluff Economic Forum August 23, 216 George A. Kahn Vice President and Economist The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions
More informationEmerging Trends in the Regional Economy
Emerging Trends in the Regional Economy Alison Felix Economist & Branch Executive Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Denver Branch The views expressed are those of the presenter and do not necessarily
More informationECONOMIC & REVENUE UPDATE
January 11, 2018 Summary summary The U.S. labor market gained 148,000 net new jobs in December. U.S. housing starts in November 2017 were 12.9% above their year-ago level. Consumer confidence declined
More informationKey takeaways. What it may mean for investors WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS. Veronica Willis Investment Strategy Analyst
Veronica Willis Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS May 8, 2018 Monetary Policy Divergence Could Last a Little Longer Key takeaways» Recent economic improvement
More informationLooking at a Variety of Municipal Valuation Metrics
Looking at a Variety of Municipal Valuation Metrics Muni vs. Treasuries, Corporates YEAR MUNI - TREASURY RATIO YEAR MUNI - CORPORATE RATIO 200% 80% 175% 150% 75% 70% 65% 125% Average Ratio 0% 75% 50% 60%
More informationMonthly Mutual Fund Report
July, Monthly Mutual Fund Report Statistics for May-June Sales and Redemptions Total assets for all funds increased in May by $9. billion, or., to $.7 trillion. Money market funds had a net cash outflow
More informationCommon stock prices 1. New York Stock Exchange indexes (Dec. 31,1965=50)2. Transportation. Utility 3. Finance
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 000 97 98 99 I90 9 9 9 9 9 9 97 98 99 970 97 97 ""..".'..'.."... 97 97 97 97 977 978 979 980 98 98 98 98 98 98 987 988
More informationEconomic Conditions and Outlook for the U.S., Kansas, and the Midwest
Economic Conditions and Outlook for the U.S., Kansas, and the Midwest Midwest Regional Public Finance Conference Wichita, KS April 25, 2014 Kelly D. Edmiston Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Overview
More informationMuhlenkamp & Company. Webcast November 30, Ron Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Jeff Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Tony Muhlenkamp, President
Muhlenkamp & Company Webcast November 3, 217 Ron Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Jeff Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Tony Muhlenkamp, President Muhlenkamp & Company, Inc. Intelligent Investment Management
More informationMACRO Report: Review of Wyoming s Economy
MACRO Report: Review of Wyoming s Economy Economic Update as of December 31, 2017 The MACRO Report is a quarterly publication comprised of charts focusing on energy, employment, state revenues, and other
More informationHousing & Mortgage Outlook. Frank Nothaft Chief Economist May 22, 2018
Housing & Mortgage Outlook Frank Nothaft Chief Economist May 22, 2018 Economic & Housing Outlook Effect of higher mortgage rates Inventory-for-sale remains low Less refinance, more purchase & home-improvement
More informationCALHOUN COUNTY CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND VISITORS CENTER
2017 Economic Forum CALHOUN COUNTY CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND VISITORS CENTER Information provided by School of Business and Industry THANK YOU to our SPONSORS Calhoun County Economy Forum National Update
More informationThe Obama Administration s Efforts To Stabilize The Housing Market and Help American Homeowners
The Obama Administration s Efforts To Stabilize The Housing Market and Help American Homeowners May 2011 U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Office of Policy Development Research U.S Department
More informationFinancial Highlights
November 3, 21 Financial Highlights Federal Reserve Balance Sheet 1 European Debt Bond Spreads 2 CDS Spreads 2 Securitization Markets CMBS Yields and Issuance 3 ABX and CMBX 4 Mortgage Rates 5 Broad Financial
More informationLABOR SITUATION Office of Research
Sharon Palmer Commissioner LABOR SITUATION Office of Research FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE May 2013 Data CT Unemployment Rate = 8.0% US Unemployment Rate = 7.6% Nonfarm jobs rise 1,000 in May but the unemployment
More informationQuarterly Economic Update Key Trends
Quarterly Economic Update Key Trends Linda Haran Senior Director June 2011 Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks of Experian Information Solutions, Inc. Other product
More informationEconomic Outlook. Cathy E. Minehan President and CEO Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. Presented to Regional and Community Bankers June 7, 2005
Economic Outlook Cathy E. Minehan President and CEO Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Presented to Regional and Community Bankers June 7, 5 Overview of the US Economy Over the near-term, the expansion appears
More informationCredit, Housing, Commodities and the Economy Chartered Financial Analysts Institute Annual Conference
Credit, Housing, Commodities and the Economy Chartered Financial Analysts Institute Annual Conference May 13, 2008 Janet L. Yellen President and CEO Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Overview Financial
More informationUnemployment Rate Edges Lower to 5.0 Percent Employment Down in December
Media Contact 609-984-2841 EMAIL: MediaCalls@dol.state.nj.us Unemployment Rate Edges Lower to 5.0 Percent Employment Down in December TRENTON, January 18, 2018 Preliminary monthly estimates released by
More informationU.S. ECONOMIC UPDATE. MACRO February 5, 2014
U.S. ECONOMIC UPDATE MACRO February 5, 2014 LEGAL DISCLAIMER Hedgeye Risk Management is a registered investment advisor, registered with the State of Connecticut. Hedgeye Risk Management is not a broker
More informationXML Publisher Balance Sheet Vision Operations (USA) Feb-02
Page:1 Apr-01 May-01 Jun-01 Jul-01 ASSETS Current Assets Cash and Short Term Investments 15,862,304 51,998,607 9,198,226 Accounts Receivable - Net of Allowance 2,560,786
More informationEmerging Trends in the U.S. and Colorado Economies
Emerging Trends in the U.S. and Colorado Economies Sam Chapman Associate Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Denver Branch The views expressed are those of the presenter and do not necessarily
More informationHOPE NOW. Snapshot Industry Extrapolations and HAMP Metrics
Year over Year Q2-211 to H1 212 Q2-211 Q3-211 Q4-211 Q1-212 Q2-212 Apr-212 May-212 Jun-212 Q2-212 Total Completed Modifications 251,424 255,667 24,523 23,463 182,6 56,922 61,489 63,594-28% 385,468 HAMP
More informationToday's jobs data: what you need to know
Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer Thomas Demas, Managing Director Michael Warren, Energy Strategist Data Insights: Jobs Friday, January 4, 2019 Today's jobs data: what you
More informationToday's jobs data: what you need to know
Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer Thomas Demas, Managing Director Michael Warren, Energy Strategist Data Insights: Jobs Friday, September 7, 2018 Today's jobs data: what you
More informationQUARTERLY FINANCIAL REPORT
QUARTERLY FINANCIAL REPORT Page Key Trends...2 Executive Summary...3 Economic Indicators...4 General Fund...8 Public Safety & Justice...10 Land Use, Housing & Transportation...11 Health & Human Services...14
More informationToday's jobs data: what you need to know
Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer Thomas Demas, Managing Director Michael Warren, Energy Strategist Data Insights: Jobs Friday, December 7, 2018 Today's jobs data: what you
More informationIntroduction to the UK Economy
Introduction to the UK Economy What are the key objectives of macroeconomic policy? Price Stability (CPI Inflation of 2%) Growth of Real GDP (National Output) Falling Unemployment / Raising Employment
More informationSharp declines in home prices, followed by a financial
NationalEconomicTrends April Household Retrenchment Sharp declines in home prices, followed by a financial crisis and a steep recession, rattled US households in Economic misfortunes have caused many to
More informationThe World Economic & Financial System: Risks & Prospects
The World Economic & Financial System: Risks & Prospects Dr. Jacob A. Frenkel Chairman & CEO Group of Thirty (G30).Bank Indonesia 7th Annual International Seminar Global Financial Tsunami: What Can We
More informationEconomic Activity Index ( GDB-EAI ) For the month of May 2013 G O V E R N M E N T D E V E L O P M E N T B A N K F O R P U E R T O R I C O
Economic Activity Index ( GDB-EAI ) For the month of May 2013 General Commentary May 2013 GDB-EAI for the month of May registered a 3.4% year-over-year ( YOY ) reduction May 2013 EAI was 126.7, a 3.4%
More informationThe chorus from Travis s 1947 song about the
NationalEconomicTrends December 7 What Do You Get for Sixteen Tons? You load sixteen tons, and what do you get? Another day older and deeper in debt Merle Travis The chorus from Travis s 197 song about
More informationBOMA National Advisory Council Meeting Seaport Hotel, Boston MA
BOMA National Advisory Council Meeting Seaport Hotel, Boston MA May 5, 2017 Jeff Fuhrer, EVP and Senior Policy Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Boston 1 Raising rates? Raising rates more this year? Next?
More informationThe relatively slow growth of employment has
NationalEconomicTrends August Please go to researchstlouisfedorg/publications/net for important information about your subscription Labor s Share The relatively slow growth of employment has been a prominent
More informationConsumer/Banking Outlook
Consumer/Banking Outlook Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Outlook Symposium December 2006 Carl Tannenbaum Chief Economist Household Spending Year-Over-Year Percent Change in Nominal Total Retail
More informationTable 1: Major Indicators of Labor Market Activity for New Jersey Seasonally Adjusted 2016 Benchmark Labor Force Data (resident)
Table 1: Major Indicators of Labor Market Activity for New Jersey Seasonally Adjusted Benchmark Labor Force Data (resident) Current Month Previous Month One Year Ago Net Change Net Change Dec. 17 (P) Nov.
More informationThe U.S. Economy s Current Performance and Outlook
/3/4 Board of Directors, Northern Virginia Association of Realtors The Current Economic Outlook & Area Housing Market Conditions Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D. Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor
More informationFORECLOSURE PREVENTION REPORT
FORECLOSURE PREVENTION REPORT FEDERAL PROPERTY MANAGER'S REPORT MAY 20 FHFA Foreclosure R e p o r t T i t l e ( Prevention I n t e r i o r Pa g e T ireport t l e ) May 20 May 20 Highlights The Enterprises'
More informationMay 17, Housing Sector Overview
May 17, 2017 Housing Sector Overview Housing Finance Policy Center May 17, 2017 AFFORDABLE HOUSING: In general, housing for which the occupant(s) is/are paying no more than 30 percent of his or her income
More information- US LEI & CEI - Yardeni Research, Inc.
- US LEI & CEI - 11 1 Figure. LEADING & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS (=, ratio scale) 11 1 Leading Economic Indicators recovering rapidly. Coincident Economic Indicators recovering slowly. 9 9 9 9 7
More informationEconomic and Housing Outlook
Economic and Housing Outlook Macdonald Realty Monday, January 23, 212 Helmut Pastrick Chief Economist Central 1 Credit Union Outline: European developments U.S. economy and forecasts Canadian economic
More information