Stock Market Seminar

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Lizbeth Harmon
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Stock Market Seminar Nik Ihsan Raja Abdullah, MSTA,

Analysts (MATA) Chartist, Retail Research, Maybank

Kingdom Society of Technical Analysts (UK STA)

1 Stock Market Seminar Nik Ihsan Raja Abdullah, MSTA, CFTe President, Malaysian Association of Technical Analysts (MATA) Chartist, Retail Research, Maybank Investment Bank Berhad Full Members of United Kingdom Society of Technical Analysts (UK STA) Colleagues, International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA)

2 The Securities Commission established under the Securities Commission Act 1993 ( Commission ) reserve all proprietary rights to the contents of this Presentation. No part of this Presentation may be used or reproduced in any form without the Commission s prior written permission. This Presentation is provided for information purposes only. Neither the Commission nor the Presenter make any warranty, express or implied, nor assume any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness or currency of the contents of this Presentation. It is your responsibility to verify any information before using or relying on it.

The Speaker Nik Ihsan Raja Abdullah President of Malaysian Association of Technical Analyst (MATA) Chartist for Research and License Investment Advisor, Maybank Investment Bank Behad Certified

3 The Speaker Nik Ihsan Raja Abdullah President of Malaysian Association of Technical Analyst (MATA) Chartist for Research and License Investment Advisor, Maybank Investment Bank Behad Certified Technical Analyst and been recognized by United Kingdom Society of Technical Analysts (UK STA) and International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA) Lecturer for MSTA Diploma Program under collaboration between PRIBUMI-MATA and UK STA. Former Institutional Sales Dealer with BIMB Securities Former Investment & Technical Analyst for UOB Kay Hian

4 The Definition of Trends

5 TREND

6 TREND IDENTIFICATION

7 ACTUAL TREND

8 MARKET STRUCTURES How trend develop? How trend can shifted from bullish to bearish? Sign of weakness / strength

9 TREND DEVELOPMENT HH HH LH LH H L HL

10 SHIFT IN TREND

11 SHIFT IN TREND How low it has to go down in order we confirm trend has turn?

12 SHIFT IN TREND ASDASD

13 ICHIMOKU KINKO HYO

14 INTRODUCTION The Ichimoku Cloud, also known as Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, is a versatile indicator that defines support and resistance, identifies trend direction, gauges momentum and provides trading signals. Ichimoku Kinko Hyo translates into one look equilibrium chart. With one look, chartists can identify the trend and look for potential signals within that trend. The indicator was developed by Goichi Hosoda, a journalist, and published in his 1969 book. Even though the Ichimoku Cloud may seem complicated when viewed on the price chart, it is really a straight forward indicator that is very usable. (Sources: stockcharts.com)

15 ICHIMOKU COMPONENTS Tenkan-sen (Conversion Line) Kijun-sen (Base Line) Senkou Span A (Leading Span A) Senkou Span B (Leading Span B) Chikou Span (Lagging Span)

16 ICHIMOKU CHART Tenkan-sen (BLUE LINE) Kijun-sen (RED LINE) Senkou Span A (DARK BLUE LINE - CLOUD) Senkou Span B (PURPLE DASH LINE - CLOUD) Chikou Span (ORANGE LINE)

17 CALCULATION Source: stockcharts.com

18 THE INTERPRETATION The trend is UP when prices are above the Cloud, DOWN when prices are below the Cloud and FLAT when prices are in the Cloud.

19 THE USAGE Trend Confirmation Trend Strength or Weakness Support and Resistance Crossover Signals

20 TREND CONFIRMATION Trend Confirmation: When the price is above the cloud it indicates an uptrend, when the price is below the cloud it indicates a downtrend.

21 TREND STRENGTH OR WEAKNESS When Span A is moving up and away from Span B it indicates the uptrend is gaining momentum vice versa. A thickening cloud helps confirm the current trend. A very thin cloud shows indecision, and a potentially weak or weakening trend.

22 SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE The cloud is projected out 26 price bars to the right of the current price, providing an idea of where support and resistance may develop in the future. During an uptrend, the price will often bounce off the cloud during pullbacks and then resume the uptrend. During a downtrend, the price will often retrace to the cloud and then continue lower. Therefore, the cloud presents entry opportunities into the trend.

23 CROSSOVER SIGNALS Price, the Conversion Line and the Base Line are used to identify faster, and more frequent, signals. It is important to remember that bullish signals are reinforced when prices are above the cloud. Bearish signals are reinforced when prices are below the cloud.

24 REMEMBER! Thicker the cloud The stronger trend would be Cloud as confirmation Cloud as FUTURES SUPPORT & RESISTANCE Tenkan & Kijun as REENTRY METHOD within the bigger trend

25 SIGNAL SUMMARY (BULL) Bullish Signals: Price moves above Cloud (trend) Cloud turns from red to green (ebb-flow within trend) Price Moves above the Base Line (momentum) Conversion Line moves above Base Line (momentum)

26 SIGNAL SUMMARY (BEAR) Bearish Signals: Price moves below Cloud (trend) Cloud turns from green to red (ebb-flow within trend) Price Moves below Base Line (momentum) Conversion Line moves below Base Line (momentum)

27 LIMITATION May generate false signal particularly when trend start to shift. COUNTER Add indicators e.g DMI, Money Flow Index etc. The cloud is also just essentially a pair of moving altered moving averages, which may or not provide support during an uptrend, or resistance in a downtrend. All calculations are also based on historical data, which means trade signals may appear late or at inopportune times, because historical short-term tendencies (which the indicator captures) may not repeat in the future.

28 CASE STUDY 1

29 CASE STUDY 2

30 CASE STUDY 3

31 CONCLUSION

32 CONCLUSION The Ichimoku Cloud is a useful indicator, especially for new traders who want some help with gauging trend direction, momentum, spotting trend reversals and finding entry points. Traders will still need to control risk with a stop loss and also find a way to profitably exit trades. With all its lines, the Ichimoku Cloud can appear scary, but basically if the price is below the Cloud, the trend is down; look for short positions and avoid long positions. When the price is above the Cloud, the trend is up; look for long positions and avoid short positions.

33 CONTACT US FACEBOOK / PAGES Personal Facebook - Nik Ihsan MATA Facebook Malaysian Association of Technical Analysts (@malaysianchartist) WEBSITE / OTHER MEDIA Telegram Channel admin@malaysianchartist.com

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