NEWSLETTER: July 2016

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Preston Fowler
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1 NEWSLETTER: July 2016

2 NEWSLETTER: JULY 2016 CONTENTS: Markets Round Up P.3 Look back at June P.4 Trade Of The Month: June - FCoJ P.5 The Month Ahead: July P.6 The Month Ahead: Seasonality For July P.7 Technical Analysis Education: Ichimoku Special P.8 Stories From The Pits: The best movies about trading? P.13 Up Coming Events, Offers And News P.14

Markets round up: Really only one major story in June and that was the Brexit vote which has had and will continue to have huge repercussions on the worlds financial markets.

3 Markets round up: Really only one major story in June and that was the Brexit vote which has had and will continue to have huge repercussions on the worlds financial markets. Currencies: Yen continues to soar, GBP weakens to 1985 lows. USD strengthened on Brexit but has since faltered. UK economy: disappointing economic statistics remain. Political chaos and Brexit vote mean stocks have taken a pounding. Possible interest rate cut looming? US economy remains sluggish: S&P500 at highs cant break the 2150 level. Crude Oil WTI remains in the $48/$50 resistance zone. Gold didn t gan as much as some thought it would from the Brexit decision. The grains markets had a strong first half of June but Corn and Wheat tumbled over the last 10 days. Soybeans remained bullish. Sugar No11 continued strength along with other Soft commodities from increased fund buying. China still very quiet.

4 Look back at June: A similar story to last month: FCoJ and Silver leading the charge. A lot of gains were lost by the Brexit decision. Softs remained strong. Grains were weak in the second half of the month. Global stock indices showed little or no gains.

Trade of the month: June - FCoJ Silver, Nat Gas, Coffee all put in a stellar bullish June performance and to the downside it was the grains: Corn and Wheat that were the big losers, but it was FCoJ

5 Trade of the month: June - FCoJ Silver, Nat Gas, Coffee all put in a stellar bullish June performance and to the downside it was the grains: Corn and Wheat that were the big losers, but it was FCoJ (Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice) for the second month running that took the months best trade. An over 20% gain in June added to last months gains from the lows saw FCoJ up over 45% over last 2 months! Disease, supply concerns, weather have all added to the bullishness of this commodity.

6 The Month Ahead: July Equities & Equity Indices: Brexit, Brexit, Brexit! It is all about Brexit and how long it is going to take to get itself sorted or at least heading in an obvious direction. Until then expect market uncertainty and periods of high volatility. The S&P 500 remains near record highs and is struggling to have the momentum to burst through these levels. The FTSE post EU referendum vote after an initial slump has now pushed on to new highs. Who knows how long this can last. UK economic conditions are not strong, and now a potential interest rate cut could put the brakes on the current short term bullishness. Seasonal historic statistics suggest the Hang Seng has a very bullish July as does the DAX. Strong and weak sectors haven t really changed that much from June: Strong sectors: Multiline Utilities, Passenger Transportation, Household Goods, Automobile & Auto Parts. Weak Sectors: Holding Companies, Coal, Bio Technology, Renewables. Commodities: Heating Oil, Crude Oi, Wheat, Live Cattle historically show bullish seasonal trends in July. Lean Hogs is the big bear as slowly buying draws to a close ahead of the traditional August price slump. GSCI Commodity Index still looks bullish with Oil being the big driver which has currently stalled around $48/ $50 zone. If Brexit contagion spreads globally then we could see some impact on commodity demand causing the recent bulls to flee and a more uncertain period initiated. Commodities to watch: Gold when times are hard, uncertain, chaotic investors head for this precious metal. Keep a close eye on Copper most of the demand is driven from China. Look out for fund buying coming out of Softs and Agricultural commodities where fundamentally there is over supply anyway. FX: The same themes will run into July specially whilst Brexit has a hold over the Global economy: Strong Yen, Weak GBP. USD stalling on strength currently due to stagnant home conditions and uncertainty around growth and interest rates but could get stronger in July. The commodity currencies towards the end of June strengthened but could these be over bought in current conditions with some downside potential?

7 The Month Ahead: Seasonality for July: The data in the table gives a guide to the general direction of the assets in question (on average) based on historical seasonal patterns and analysis over the previous 20 years:

What is Ichimoku? Technical Analysis Education: Ichimoku Special. Ichimoku is a unique one stop shop for analysing any asset in any timeframe. At first glance it looks a complete mess.

8 What is Ichimoku? Technical Analysis Education: Ichimoku Special. Ichimoku is a unique one stop shop for analysing any asset in any timeframe. At first glance it looks a complete mess. Untangle it though and you have a straight forward and very powerful all round trading system that can seriously boost your trading results. S&P 500 Index Daily Ichimoku set up: Ichimoku or otherwise known as Ichimoku Kinko Hyu was developed by a Japanese journalist Goichi Hosoda and published in his book in It means one look. It is a collection of technical analytical techniques to determine: The trend Momentum Support and resistance Trading signals Entry and exit points

Basic components: Technical Analysis Education: Ichimoku Special. It is made up of 5 key parts. 4 of the 5 are based on the average high / low over a given period.

9 Basic components: Technical Analysis Education: Ichimoku Special. It is made up of 5 key parts. 4 of the 5 are based on the average high / low over a given period. S&P 500 Index Daily Ichimoku set up with component parts labelled: Tenkan-sen (Conversion Line): (9-period high + 9-period low)/2)) Kijun-sen (Base Line): (26-period high + 26-period low)/2)) Chikou Span Senkou Span A (Leading Span A): (Conversion Line + Base Line)/2)) Senkou Span B (Leading Span B): (52-period high + 52-period low)/2)) Chikou Span (Lagging Span): Close plotted 26 days in the past The inputs above are the original default settings. There is nothing to stop you changing and adapting a different set up. Kijun-sen Tenkan-sen Senkou Span A Senkou Span B

Rules: The cloud: Technical Analysis Education: Ichimoku Special. Senkou Span A and B form the cloud known as the Kumo. The cloud changes trend direction when these two lines cross.

10 Rules: The cloud: Technical Analysis Education: Ichimoku Special. Senkou Span A and B form the cloud known as the Kumo. The cloud changes trend direction when these two lines cross. In the example here a red cloud signifies bearishness and a green cloud bullishness. The cloud can offer good support and resistance levels. S&P 500 Index Weekly Ichimoku set up with only the Kumo displayed: There are two ways to identify the overall trend using the Cloud. 1. the trend is up when prices are above the Cloud, down when prices are below the Cloud and flat when prices are in the Cloud. 2. the uptrend is stronger when the Leading Span A (green cloud line) is rising and above the Leading Span B (red cloud line). This situation produces a green Cloud. Conversely, a downtrend is stronger when the Leading Span A (green cloud line) is falling and below the Leading Span B (red cloud line). This situation produces a red Cloud. The Cloud is also shifted forward 26 days, so as to provide a view on future support or resistance.

11 Rules: Technical Analysis Education: Ichimoku Special. The Conversion Line and the Base Line WTI Crude Oil Daily Ichimoku set up with close up of conversion lines crossing: They are used to identify faster, and more frequent, signals. Trading signals occur when the two cross. Conversion line > Base line = Bullish Conversion line < Base line = Bearish Remember: bullish signals are reinforced /preferred when prices are above the cloud and the cloud is green. Bearish signals are reinforced / preferred when prices are below the cloud and the cloud is red. Bullish cross

Rules: The Chikou Span Technical Analysis Education: Ichimoku Special. It can be used to pick out bearish and bullish signals. It is a therefore a mirror of price action on a typical trading month.

12 Rules: The Chikou Span Technical Analysis Education: Ichimoku Special. It can be used to pick out bearish and bullish signals. It is a therefore a mirror of price action on a typical trading month. To use it, you must look for its position in relation to the position of the price action, traced back to 26 candles previously. If the Chikou span is above the price action, then this is a bullish signal. If it is found below the price action, then the sentiment in the market is bearish. If the Chikou is found where the candlesticks are, then this is a signal for a market in consolidation. Used for confirming support and resistance Used for breakouts through the cloud. WTI Crude Oil Daily Ichimoku set up with stochastic: Conclusion: Once the components to this system are understood then it becomes quite apparent that this is indeed a very useful trading tool. This approach can be further adapted to include Western oscillators, or you could change the basic candlestick approach to a Heikin Ashi set up.

Stories From The Pits: The best trading movies?

. It s all down to personal opinion but I think the list here are the best movies

I was inspired to get into trading by watching the first Wall Street film.

13 Stories From The Pits: The best trading movies? A light hearted end to this months report.. It s all down to personal opinion but I think the list here are the best movies made about trading. I was inspired to get into trading by watching the first Wall Street film. More recently The Wolf of Wall Street and The Big Short has rekindled an interest in the markets and got pulses racing! If you have the time, then I thoroughly recommend you take a few hours out to watch some of these films. There are also some great learning points to take from these films that can be applied to your own trading. My top trading movie film list: (no particular order) Trading Places Wall Street (1 and 2) Rogue Trader Margin call The pursuit of happiness Enron: the smartest guys in the room Barbarians at the gate Inside Job Boiler Room The Big Short

Up coming event, Offers, News: Core Trader Training Courses coming soon We are now taking bookings for our courses in 2016: Canterbury: Wed 21st & Thu 22 nd September, Canterbury: Wed 16th & Thu 17th

14 Up coming event, Offers, News: Core Trader Training Courses coming soon We are now taking bookings for our courses in 2016: Canterbury: Wed 21st & Thu 22 nd September, Canterbury: Wed 16th & Thu 17th November, Next Trading Surgery: 28 th July pm to 5pm Canterbury Innovation Centre One 2 One Training: Need on-going support? Need to talk over your results and trading issues? Want to identify your weaknesses? Want to become a better trader? For those who have been on the Core Trader Training Course, One2One training is currently only 150 per hour + VAT. For those who haven t, the hourly rate is VAT. Please contact us on or via our booking enquiry form. Refer anyone onto our Core Trader Training Programme and receive 100 cash* (*Terms and conditions apply)

15 Disclaimer: All rights reserved. This document may not be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system in part or in whole without the express written permission of The Stop Hunter Ltd; except where permitted by law. Commentaries, information and other materials contained in any part of this document are purely educational in nature and are not intended to amount to advice on which reliance should be placed. They should not be relied upon for the purpose of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. We therefore disclaim all liability and responsibility arising from any reliance placed on any information displayed in this document (including without limitation liability and responsibility for any investment decision made), or by anyone who may be informed of any of its contents. Trading and investing involves a very high degree of risk. Past results are not indicative of future returns and financial instruments can go down as well as up resulting in you receiving less than you invested. Do not assume that any recommendations, insights, charts, theories, or philosophies will ensure profitable investment.

THE TRADERS CLUB WEEKLY REPORT: 17/06/16

THE TRADERS CLUB WEEKLY REPORT: 17/06/16 THE TRADERS CLUB WEEKLY REPORT: 17/06/16 CONTENTS: FX Majors Traded Pairs Summary P.1 FX Majors Currency Strength P.2 FX Major Charts P.3 FX Emerging Markets P.4