Earnings: Companies Clock Profit Rise In Oct-Dec Amid Industry Slowdown

Transcription

1 February 15, 2012 Earnings: Companies Clock Profit Rise In Oct-Dec Amid Industry Slowdown Policy & Research Unit

2 Cos Clock Profit Rise In Oct-Dec Amid Industry Slowdown UARTERLY earnings of corporate India in October- Q December has slowing industrial growth as the backdrop. We aggregated financial performance of 94 companies that constitute the BSE 100 index to calibrate the impact of industrial slowdown on company earnings and found that companies have managed to register growth amid slowing economic environment. India s industrial growth, as measured on a year-on-year basis, slid to 1.8% in December from 5.9% increase in November, indicating weak economic growth. Advance estimates released by the Central Statistical Organisation show gross domestic product growth in (April-March) will slow to 6.9%. This is the lowest rate in three years with FY11 recording an 8.4% increase. Companies in the BSE 100 index continued to post a healthy topline growth in October-December. Net sales grew both on year-onyear (29.5%) as well as quarter-on-quarter (11.7%) basis. However, the companies could not convert top-line growth into a corresponding growth in the bottom-line. High costs ate into quarterly profits, resulting in an aggregate net profit growth of 13.4% year-on-year, which is far lower compared with 24.2% rise registered a year ago. However, profit performance in the quarter under consideration has been the best among the three quarters of the current financial year. Net profit margin also improved to 9.9% in October-December from 7.7% in July- September. Profitability took a beating on a year-on-year basis. Oil Cos Drive Growth harp improvement in profits of companies in crude oil exploration, refining and natural gas sectors steered growth in over- S all profits. This is evident from the fact that on excluding these companies, profit growth slid to 5.8% year-on-year from 13.4% overall profit growth. Quarterly Growth Highlights Top-line grew at faster pace vs bottom-line High costs ate into Oct-Dec profits Oil cos lead profit growth Table 1: Financial Performance of BSE 100 Companies (YoY Growth) Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Net sales 18.5% 23.3% 29.8% 23.1% 29.5% Raw materials, purchase of finished goods 19.1% 27.7% 35.3% 30.6% 34.2% Salaries and wages 21.7% 29.1% 20.5% 13.3% 14.5% Power and fuel 32.9% 29.9% 26.7% 26.0% 19.5% Interest expenses 16.6% 32.2% 41.9% 46.2% 46.0% Depreciation 4.7% 15.6% 13.8% 1.7% 13.4% Net profit 24.2% 13.4% 6.5% -25.0% 13.4% Net Profit Margin 11.4% 11.2% 7.7% 7.7% 9.9% Note: Financials of six companies have not been included in the above aggregates. Source: CMIE, DhanBank PRU

3 In terms of absolute net profit, financial services companies, including banks, contributed the biggest chunk of 25% to aggregate net profit in October-December. However, the sector had little impact on profit performance at the aggregate level. Profit growth remained at 13.3% after excluding companies in the sector compared with 13.4% overall profit growth. However, that was not the case in July-September when profits were largely driven by financial services companies. This time round, petroleum companies led growth. We have segregated companies into various sectors based on economic activity that has the largest contribution to revenues. A look at industry-wise performance of the companies included in the index reveals diverse trends. Oil Exploration, Refining and Gas his sector was the largest contributor to overall net sales during the quarter. Heavyweights including Indian Oil Corp Ltd, T Oil & Natural Gas Corp Ltd, Reliance Industries Ltd, among others, belong to this sector. Growth in refining companies, both public sector (Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd and Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd) as well as private sector (Reliance Industries), led to the sector registering 41.2% increase in net sales. Better sales realisations and higher volumes drove the growth. On net profit front, it was only the public sector downstream oil companies that managed to post net profit growth. The government provided subsidy during the December quarter, which was not the case in the two preceding quarters, pushing public sector downstream oil companies into losses then. In the last quarter, these companies enabled the sector register a robust 38% increase in net profits. Reliance Industries, on the other hand, reported a 14% fall in profit after tax because sharp depreciation in rupee lowered gross refining margins of the company. Financial Services Companies O f the total of 22 financial services companies in the BSE 100 index, 14 are banks. Income from operations of these 14 banks accelerated to 32.8% in October-December from 24% a year ago. However, net profit grew by a slower 10.3% resulting in a contraction in net profit margin. This is mainly because growth rate in net interest income (interest income minus interest expense) slowed further in the December quarter. Borrowing cost increased by a whopping 44.6% from a year ago due to several hikes in card rates implemented by banks during the current financial year.

4 Provisions and contingencies by these banks grew at a slower pace of 15.7% compared with 35.7% a year ago. State Bank of India managed to show an improved performance, helped by only a marginal increase in its provisioning. Automobile and Ancillaries ogged down by high costs, the automobile and auto ancillary B companies included in the index reported a decline in net profit for the second consecutive quarter in December. Prices of major raw materials, including steel and aluminium softened or rose at a sedate pace in October-December. However, companies which depend on imports of raw materials were hit because of 13.5% fall in the value of Indian rupee during the quarter. Dismal performance by Maruti Suzuki Ltd continued in October- December as well. Labour issues at Manesar plant crippled production, resulting in a 27.6% year-on-year fall in sales volumes during the quarter. On account of a healthy 14.2% rise in average realisations, the fall in revenues was restricted to 17%. It must be noted the company s labour problems have now been resolved and the company s sales revenues are expected to improve in January- March. According to a report in The Economic Times, in addition to increasing sales price, the company raised its dealer margins on petrol variant cars. This is expected to boost sales volumes. Tata Motors Ltd, Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd and Exide Industries Ltd could not manage to hold up profits compared with the previous year. Metals riven by higher volumes and better sales realisations, metal D companies included in BSE 100 index registered a 11.4% growth in aggregate net sales in the December quarter. All the six companies posted a fall in profits resulting in a 20.2% decline in aggregate net profit. A more than proportionate increase in expenses, mainly raw materials, led to this fall. International contract prices of iron ore and coking coal ruled 25% and 36% higher compared with year-ago levels. A ban on mining in Karnataka and huge forex losses resulted in JSW Steel Ltd being the worst performer and recorded a 56% fall in net profit. Information Technology olstered by sharp depreciation in Indian rupee, three of the B four software companies included in the index reported over

5 30% year-on-year growth in sales and profits. A less than proportionate increase in employee cost the largest expense head for the industry enabled profit growth. Aggregate net profit margin stood at 23.4%, the highest across industries. Tata Consultancy Services Ltd, the largest company, reported a 38.2% rise in sales. Revenues of Infosys Technologies Ltd and HCL Technologies Ltd increased 33.1% and 32.9%, respectively. On the other hand, Wipro Ltd registered a 26% increase in sales but its net profit dipped 13%. Sharp rise in operating costs and surge in interest expenses led to this decline. Power Generation, Transmission ncrease in power generation and higher realisations enabled the I industry to record a healthy 21.8% rise in net sales in October- December. While sales grew at a faster pace compared with the year-ago level, fall in net profit accelerated. Profit at the net level dipped 6.6% compared with 4.2% fall in the corresponding year-ago quarter. Prices of key raw materials (coal and gas) ruled higher, resulting in a 34.6% rise in raw material cost. High other expenses, interest and depreciation charges further eroded profits. Some of the power companies also reported forex losses. While net profit of NHPC Ltd (down 29.4%) and NTPC Ltd (down 10.2%) declined, Adani Power Ltd slipped into the red during the quarter. Telecom rofits of the telecom industry continued to slide in October- P December. Bharti Airtel Ltd, Idea Cellular Ltd and Reliance Communications Ltd are the three telecom companies included in the BSE 100 index. Aggregate net profit of these companies dipped 23.6% over and above 31.4% decline recorded in the yearago quarter. Net sales growth of the industry stood at 10.8%. Interest cost of the three companies surged to `796 crore compared with `126 crore a year-ago. Companies started servicing the loans taken for purchase of 3G spectrum, with 3G services being rolled out in April In a recent development, the Supreme Court cancelled 122 telecom licences issued on or after January 10, 2008, during the tenure of the former telecom minister A. Raja. The cancelled licences include 22 of Unitech Wireless, 21 each of Videocon, Loop Telecom and Sistema Shyam, 15 of Etisalat DB, 13 of Idea Cellular, 6 of S-Tel and three of Tata Teleservices. Unitech Wireless and Sistema Shyam would be the worst hit. Of

6 the 78 million subscribers, these two companies together account for around 49 million subscribers. They were the only two (new) companies to have finished most their network rollout and had invested heavily in infrastructure, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy. It will also result in reduced competition in the industry and would give established operators a free hand to further raise tariffs. This would also benefit the industry. Engineering, Capital Goods BB Ltd, Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd, Crompton Greaves A Ltd, Suzlon Energy Ltd and Siemens Ltd are the five engineering companies included in the BSE 100 index. Of these, results for ABB were not available and hence excluded from computation of aggregates. While fresh orders received a setback because of slow pace of infrastructure development, healthy pace of order execution enabled companies (excluding Siemens) register a double-digit growth in sales. Profits of the industry nosedived 27.7%, mainly because of a loss of `315 crore posted by Suzlon Energy. Suzlon recorded losses due to increase in interest costs and provision for deferred taxes While BHEL the largest company in this sample managed to post a marginal 2.1% rise in net profit, other three companies recorded a fall. High costs exerted downward pressure on profits of the industry. Food and Beverage ncrease in end-product prices enabled companies in the food I and beverage sector to tide over increase in costs and report an improvement in profitability. Barring United Sprits, the other three companies Nestle India Ltd, Tata Global Beverages Ltd and ITC Ltd registered healthy profit growth. PRU View: Earnings Squeeze Ahead A steep fall in net profits for two consecutive quarters July-September and October-December is expected to dent corporate India s profit situation for the entire financial year However, companies are expected to get respite because of easing value of Indian rupee in the current March quarter. Easing inflation and monetary stance of the Reserve Bank of India are likely to augur well for companies in the quarters to come. While slowing infrastructure development may hinder growth of certain industries, healthy pace of project execution augurs well for growth. Also, weak investment sentiment may dent growth in the medium to long term. Non-food fast-moving consumer goods companies including Colgate-Palmolive (India) Ltd, Dabur India Ltd and Hindustan Unilever Ltd managed to hold up net profit margins at 12.6% on an aggregate basis.

7 Sonal Thakur Senior Sector Analyst Jones Koshy Senior Editor Rajrishi Singhal Head Policy & Research Policy & Research Unit, Dhanlaxmi Bank, Trade View, Kamala Mills, PB Marg, Worli, Mumbai Disclaimer Clause This report is for customer information only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment. This document is not intended to provide professional advice and should not be relied upon in that regard. Persons accessing this document are advised to obtain appropriate professional advice where necessary. This document is not directed to or intended for display, downloading, printing, reproducing or for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, reproduction, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or would subject Dhanlaxmi Bank Limited or its associates or group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. If this document is inadvertently sent or has reached any individual in such country, the same may be ignored and brought to the attention of the sender. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without prior written approval of Dhanlaxmi Bank Limited.