BHARAT FORGE LIMITED RESEARCH

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1 EQUITY September 05, 2008 RESULTS REVIEW Share Data Market Cap Rs. 56 bn Price Rs BSE Sensex 14, Reuters Bloomberg Avg. Volume (52 Week) BFRG.BO BHFC IN 0.1 mn 52-Week High/Low Rs / Shares Outstanding Valuation Ratios (Consolidated) mn Year to 31 March 2009E 2010E EPS (Rs.) /- (%) 6.6% 22.7% PER (x) 17.3x 14.1x EV/ Sales (x) 1.3x 1.1x EV/ EBITDA (x) 8.6x 7.3x Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters 41 FIIs 14 Institutions 14 Public & Others 31 Relative Performance Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 BHFC Rebased BSE Index Bharat Forge Limited Fighting all odds Bharat Forge Limited (BFL) reported a 23.5% increase in net sales to Rs bn on account of a strong growth in both the domestic and international markets. Adj. net profit jumped 48.2% yoy to Rs mn, and adj. net profit margin increased 114 bps to 6.5%, supported by a lower interest expense (as a percentage of sales). In the coming quarters, we expect: Global auto industry sluggishness to persist: We expect the sluggishness in the global auto industry to continue because of the continuing global economic downturn. High interest rates and a slowdown in consumer spending will keep the demand for automobiles under pressure. The US and European markets, which account for more than 60% of BFL s revenues, will be the worst affected by the adverse global economic enviroment. With an 11.4% qoq fall in auto production, the Indian auto industry is also facing tough times. However, with increasing market penetration and a well-diversified product base, BFL should be able to contain the effect of the slowdown. Non-automotive segment to boost growth: To reduce its dependence on the automotive industry, BFL is expanding into the non-automotive segment and targets 40% of total revenues from the latter by To achieve this, the Company commissioned its Mundhwa plant, India s largest commercial open forging press, in August The Baramati facilitiy will also commence production soon. BFL has already secured businesses for marine engines, wind mill shafts, and capital goods. Thus, we believe this segment will drive growth in the near future. Buy Key Figures (Consolidated) Quarterly Data Q1'08 Q4'08 Q1'09 YoY% QoQ% (Figures in Rs. mn, except per share data) Net Sales 10,614 11,500 13, % 14.0% EBITDA 1,466 1,846 2, % 10.8% Adj. Net Profit % 15.9% Margins(%) EBITDA 13.8% 16.0% 15.6% NPM 5.4% 6.5% 6.5% Per Share Data (Rs.) Adjusted EPS % 15.6% Please see the end of the report for disclaimer and disclosures. -1-

2 EQUITY September 05, 2008 Valuation We have valued Bharat Forge by using a three stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model with explicit forecast till 2010, middle period forecast between , and terminal period from Free cash flows for the explicit period were calculated based on projects announced by the Company. For the middle and terminal period, cash flows were estimated assuming a free cash flow growth of 15% and 5%, respectively. For discounting the estimated free cash flows, we have assumed a WACC of 13.2% based on the cost of equity of 15.5% and cost of debt of 7.4%. This valuation gives us a target price of Rs. 320, which is 27.8% more than the current market price of Rs Hence, we reiterate our Buy rating on the stock. Result Highlights Exports grew by a strong 33% yoy to Rs. 2,975 mn Depreciation of the rupee led to higher realisations During Q1 09, BFL s net sales jumped 23.5% yoy to Rs bn on the back of a strong growth in both the export and domestic revenues, supported by the weakening rupee. Revenues from the domestic market grew 24.4% yoy to Rs. 3.4 bn due to an 11.8% yoy increase in automobile production. Despite an 18.6% drop in US automobile production, revenues from the US market increased 13.9% yoy to Rs. 1,393 mn, partly supported by a weaker rupee. Likewise, revenues from Europe surged 48.6% yoy to Rs. 1,388 mn even though auto sales in the region declined 2.2% yoy. The Company was able to pass on the increase in raw material costs to clients due to the pass-through clauses in its contracts EBITDA for the consolidated firm increased 39.5% yoy to Rs. 2 bn. EBITDA margin improved 178 bps yoy to 15.6% as the Company passed on the increase in the raw material costs to its customers. For the standalone company, EBITDA jumped 54.1% yoy to Rs. 1.6 bn and margin increased 410 bps yoy to 24.5% as manufacturing expenses and staff costs (as a percentage of sales) declined. Consolidated adj. net profit increased 48.2% yoy to Rs mn, supported by a lower interest and tax expense. As a result, adj. net profit Please see the end of the report for disclaimer and disclosures. -2-

3 EQUITY September 05, 2008 margin improved 114 bps yoy to 6.5%. Adj. net profit for the standalone firm increased 65.8% yoy to Rs mn. Key Events BFL and NTPC have formed a JV to set up a manufacturing facility for castings, forgings, fittings, and high pressure piping and balance of plant equipments for the various power projects. BFL is in talks to form a JV with Alstom Power for producing high-value, super critical turbine/generator sets for thermal and nuclear power plants. Key Risks The following factors can pose a threat to our rating: Any delay in the commissioning of the non-automotive unit Strengthening of the rupee against the dollar Any further decline in the US, European, or Indian automotive sectors Outlook The global automotive industry has slowed down significantly due to several factors, such as the rising crude oil prices, higher steel prices, and the global economic downturn. In Q1 09, US auto production fell sharply by 18.6% yoy, while European auto sales declined 2.2% yoy on the back of similar factors. The Indian Auto industry also went through a sluggish phase, resulting in an 11.4% qoq fall in production. However, increased market penetration helped BFL to withstand the global automotive slowdown. We expect the global automobile slowdown to continue in the near future due to persistent adverse economic conditions. Additionally, higher interest rates and rising raw material prices will keep the domestic auto sector under pressure. Though margins are expected to be under pressure in Please see the end of the report for disclaimer and disclosures. -3-

4 EQUITY September 05, 2008 FY09, we expect them to improve in FY10 as prices of commodities such as oil and steel have started to decline due to the slowdown in the global economy. Crude oil prices have reduced from around USD 140 per barrel to USD 110 per barrel, and international steel prices have also declined by around USD 300 per ton in the last 2 months. Moreover, we believe the interest rate cycle is nearing its top. In order to reduce the adverse affect of the sluggish auto industry, the Company is increasing its market penetration and moving up the value chain. As a result, we believe BFL will be able to contain the effect of the slowdown in the auto industry. Further, BFL is working towards reducing its dependency on the auto industry by diversifying into non-automotive segments. The installation of the Company s non-automotive manufacturing facilities is expected to be completed soon, and production is expected to start in Q2 09. BFL has already secured businesses for various non-auto sectors, such as marine engines, wind mill shafts, large stationary diesel engines, and the capital goods sector. Given the sluggishness in the automotive industry, we believe the non-automotive business will be the main growth driver for the Company in the near future. BFL targets to increase the revenue share of its non-automotive segment from 18% to 40% over the next 3-4 years. We have valued Bharat Forge by using a three stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model with explicit forecast till 2010, middle period forecast between , and terminal period from Free cash flows for the explicit period were calculated based on projects announced by the Company. For the middle and terminal period, cash flows were estimated assuming a free cash flow growth of 15% and 5%, respectively. For discounting the estimated free cash flows, we have assumed a WACC of 13.2% based on the cost of equity of 15.5% and cost of debt of 7.4%. This valuation gives us a target price of Rs. 320, which is 27.8% more than the current market price of Rs Hence, we reiterate our Buy rating on the stock. Please see the end of the report for disclaimer and disclosures. -4-

5 BHARAT FORGE LIMITED EQUITY September 05, 2008 As the DCF value is more sensitive to variables such as WACC and the terminal growth rate, we have undertaken a sensitivity analysis in order to illustrate the effect of changes in these variables. Sensitivity Analysis of the Fair Value Estimate: Terminal growth (in %) WACC (in %) Key Figures (Consolidated) Year to March FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09E FY10E CAGR (%) (Figures in Rs. mn, except per share data) (FY08-10E) Net Sales 30,189 41,783 46,523 51,175 58, % EBITDA 5,235 6,494 7,045 7,506 8, % Adj. Net Profit 2,510 3,008 3,015 3,215 3, % Margins(%) EBITDA 17.3% 15.5% 15.1% 14.7% 15.1% NPM 8.3% 7.2% 6.5% 6.3% 6.7% Per Share Data (Rs.) Adjusted EPS % PER (x) 40.7x 23.3x 18.5x 17.3x 14.1x Please see the end of the report for disclaimer and disclosures. -5-

6 EQUITY September 05, 2008 Disclaimer This report is not for public distribution and is only for private circulation and use. The Report should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or person(s) in any form. No action is solicited on the basis of the contents of this report. This material is for the general information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be considered as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any stock or derivative in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Indiabulls Securities Limited. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. You are advised to independently evaluate the investments and strategies discussed herein and also seek the advice of your financial adviser. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. The value of, and income from investments may vary because of changes in the macro and micro economic conditions. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Any opinions expressed here in reflect judgments at this date and are subject to change without notice. Indiabulls Securities Limited (ISL) and any/all of its group companies or directors or employees reserves its right to suspend the publication of this Report and are not under any obligation to tell you when opinions or information in this report change. In addition, ISL has no obligation to continue to publish reports on all the stocks currently under its coverage or to notify you in the event it terminates its coverage. Neither Indiabulls Securities Limited nor any of its affiliates, associates, directors or employees shall in any way be responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any error in the information contained in this report. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject stock and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Indiabulls Securities Limited prior written consent. The information given herein should be treated as only factor, while making investment decision. The report does not provide individually tailor-made investment advice. Indiabulls Securities Limited recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. Indiabulls Securities Limited shall not be responsible for any transaction conducted based on the information given in this report, which is in violation of rules and regulations of National Stock Exchange or Bombay Stock Exchange. Indiabulls (H.O.), Plot No , Udyog Vihar, Phase - V, Gurgaon , Haryana. Ph: (0124) ,

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