458=5 100% 458= $ % % 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 458=5 458=5 7.5% 123% %12 OGE 100% 100% FMI 15% 458=5 100% 100% 15% 458=5 458=5. 545k. 0.

Transcription

1 % % % % 123% 123% 7.% $ $ $ 10545k.545k k 545k OGE OGE %12 %12 % OGE OGE OGE 123% % $ $ = Economic Outlook ANGOLA

2 Area KM 2 Characterisation and Principal Economic Data1 Population 2 21,4 million inhabitants Official name: the Republic of Angola POPULATION DENSITY 16.1 PEOPLE/KM 2 CAPITAL Luanda MILLION INHABITANTS IMPORTANT CITIES LUBANGO ( INHABITANTS) HUAMBO ( ) LOBITO ( ) BENGUELA ( ) CABINDA ( ) CURRENCY Kwanza de Angola (AOA) 1 EUR = 132,24 AOA (BdP - FEBRUARY 2013) 1 USD = AOA (XE.com) LUANDA CABINDA ZAIRE bengo BENGUELA UÍGE CUANZA NORTE CUANZA SUL HUAMBO MALANGE BIÉ LUNDA NORTE LUNDA SUL MOXICO N HUILA NAMIBE CUNENE CUANDO CUBANGO Country Risk: General risk: B Political risk: B (AAA = lower risk; D = higher risk) credit risk 3 : 5 (1 = lower risk; 7 = higher risk) Degree of openness and size relative to the market: Exp. + Imp. / GDP = 76,0% (2011) Imp. / GDP = 37,5% (2011) Imp. / Worldwide Imp. = 0,12% (2011) 1 1 Sources: The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU); World Trade Organization (OMC), Bank of Portugal, AICEP and World Bank. 2 Source: Forecast IMF WEO October COSEC Insurance and Credit Company. 2

3 OFFICIAL LANGUAGE PORTUGUESE OTHER LANGUAGES SPOKEN UMBUNDU, KIMBUNDU, KIKONGO, CHOKWE, KWANYANA MAJORITY RELIGION CHRISTIAN INTERNET TLD.ao CALLING CODE +244 TIME ZONE GMT + 1 HOUR DATE OF INDEPENDENCE 11 NOVEMBER 1975 POLITICAL SYSTEM PRESIDENTIAL REPUBLIC Characterisation and Principal Economic Data president José Eduardo dos Santos (since September 1979, re-elected in 2012) vice-president Manuel Domingos Vicente (since September de 2012) DATE OF CURRENT CONSTITUTION Signed into law by The President on 5 february 2010 Main political parties MPLA - Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola MAIN OPPOSITION PARTIES UNITA National Union for the Independence of Angola CASA-CE Broad Convergence for the Salvation of Angola Electoral Coalition PRS Social Renewal Party FNLA National Front for the Liberation of Angola ND - New Democracy PUBLIC HOLIDAYS DATE Holiday 1 January International Day World Fraternity 4 February Armed Struggle for National Liberation 12 February Carnival 8 March International Women s Day 29 March Good Friday 31 March Easter 4 April Peace Day and Nacional Reconciliation 1 May International Workers Day 17 September Day of the Founder of the Nation and National Hero 2 November Day of the Dead 11 November National Independence Day 25 December Christmas 3

4 Principal Macroeconomic Indicators 21.4 POPULATion GDP (10 9 AOA) RATE OF INFLATION (AVERAGE) 8.5% 6.3% GROWTH RATE FORECAST INDICAtors UNIT 2013 (Forecast) 2015 (Forecast) GDP at market prices 10 9 AOA n.d. GDP at market prices 10 6 USD GDP per capita USD Real growth in GDP % 8,3 5,9 5,9 Private consumption Var. % 9,0 6,3 4,0 Public consumption Var. % 8,0 5,0 5,0 Rate of inflation (average) % 9,0 8,5 8,0 Current Balance 10 6 USD Current Balance % do PIB 7,5 5,5 4,6 Public Debt % do PIB 18,5 15,5 12,9 External Debt % do PIB 14,9 12,3 10,6 Source: Economist Intelligence Unit (March 2013) Angola and the World Trade The Angolan balance of trade shows a high positive balance and this increased continuously over the period This situation results mainly from the export of oil which represents around 165% of total external sales. As a large exporter in the context of sub-saharan Africa, on the world level, Angola was in 52 nd place in As an importer, the country was in 72 nd place in the world ranking. Exports are dominated by oil and its prices and production levels will remain strong, and Angola s production capacity has not yet reached its full potential. It is also hoped that the export of natural gas will take on great significance in Angola s trade with the rest of the world. PRINCIPAL EXPORTS Fuel and mineral oils 95,8 Boats and floating structures 2,5 % OF TOTAL PRINCIPAL IMPORTS Mechanical machinery and equipment Electrical machinery and appliances % OF TOTAL 16,1 9,6 Precious stones and metals 1,1 Motor vehicles and parts 8,3 Mechanical machinery and equipment 0,1 Cast iron or steel products 6,3 Sources: International Trade Centre 4

5 OIL REPRESENTS 98% OF TOTAL SALES TO THE EXTERIOR AND 39% OF GDP 97.4% PRINCIPAL EXPORT FUELS AND MINERAL OILS 13.6% PRINCIPAL IMPORT MACHINERY AND MECHANICAL EQUIPMENT 46.4% PRINCIPAL CLIENT CHINA 20.7% PRINCIPAL SUPPLIER china PRINCIPAL CLIENTS % OF TOTAL PRINCIPAL suppliers % OF TOTAL 1º China 46,4 1º China 20,7 2º USA 13,9 2º Portugal 19,7 3º India 11,1 3º USA 7,6 4º Taiwan 7,0 4º South Africa 5,9 6º Portugal 3,2 5º Brasil 5,9 Source: International Trade Centre PRINCIPAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 2013 (Estimate) (Forecast) 2015 (Forecast) Population (M) * n.d. GDP per capita (USD) ** * Source: IMF WEO October 2013 ** Source: Economist Intelligence Unit 2012 (Estimate) 2013 (Forecast) GDP (thousand million AOA) GDP (thousand million USD) GDP (% change) 8,0 8,3 5,9 Source: IMF WEO October 2013, Ministry of Finance 5

6 Economic Relations with Portugal TRADE IN GOODS BALANCE OF TRADE (10 3 euros) Var. % (a) 08/12 Var. % (b) 11/12 Exports ,8 28,6 Imports ,6 51,3 Balance Coefficient (%) 554,2 1484,2 338,2 198,0 168, Sources: INE - National Institute of Statistics Unit: Thousands of euros Notes: (a) Mathematical average of annual growth rates in the period (b) Rate of change 2007 to 2009: defined results, 2010 to 2012: preliminary results 2012 TRADE ANGOLA IS IN 4 TH POSITION ON THE LIST OF PORTUGAL S CLIENTS PORTUGAL S POSITION AND SHARE (TRADE) Angola as a client of Portugal Angola as a supplier of Portugal Source: ITC - International Trade Centre National Institute of Statistics UNIT Jan/Abr Position 4 th 4 th 5 th 4 th 4 th % Outflow 5,82 7,07 5,11 5,44 6,61 Position 21 st 36 th 15 th 11 st 7 th % Inflow 0,64 0,29 0,99 2,04 3,10 Notes: The terms Entries and Exits correspond to the aggregates (Dispatches + Exports) and (Arrivals + Imports) with the designations referring to IntraEU and ExtraEU trade, respectively SERVICES ANGOLA IS IN 5 TH POSITION ON THE LIST OF PORTUGAL S CLIENTS PORTUGAL S POSITION AND SHARE (TRADE) Angola as a client of Portugal Angola as a supplier of Portugal Source: Bank of Portugal UNIT Jan/Abr Position 8 th 7 th 7 th 5 th 5 th % Exports 3,83 4,20 4,64 5,66 6,98 Position 12 nd 12 nd 12 nd 12 nd 12 nd % Exports 1,12 1,32 1,16 1,18 1,44 Notes: (a) Position among 55 countries. (b) Portugal s market share in total imports and exports. 6

7 Foreign Investment IN NON-OIL ACTIVITIES INTEREST IS FOCUSED ON MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY, REHABILITATION OF INFRASTRUCTURES AND AGRICULTURE. IN 2010 THE COUNTRY WAS IN 25 TH PLACE IN THE WORLD RANKING OF RECEIVERS OF FDI (O.8% OF THE WORLD TOTAL). The attraction of Angola for foreign investors comes principally from the country s riches in oil and other natural resources and foreign investment is involved in a range of sectors related to oil. In non-oil activities, interest is in the rehabilitation of infrastructures and this is expected to intensify in the near future. Foreign direct investment (FDI) has been playing an increasingly important role in the Angolan economy. According to the World Investment Report published by UNCTAD, Angola is much more important on the world level as a receiver of FDI that it is as an investor. In 2010 the country was in 25 th place in the world ranking as a receiver of FDI (0.8% of the world total) among 208 countries and it occupied 52 nd place among investor countries (0.1% of the world total). (10 6 USD) (a) 2012 (a) Foreign investment in Angola Angolan investment abroad Position in world ranking As receiver 20 th 28 th 25 th n.d. n.d. As investor 44 th 105 th 52 nd n.d. n.d. Source: UNCTAD - World investment Report 2011 and E.I.U. Note: (a) Estimate Forecast MILLion PRODUCTION OF BARRELS PER DAY STATE BUDGET GROWTH OF 8,8% ACCORDING TO THE IMF: The latest data made available by the IMF indicates that GDP grew 5.6% in 2013 in contrast to the 6.2% that had been expected. For, the IMF expects the same scenario, forecasting a reduction in the growth rate to 6.3%, one digit lower than the value originally forecast. Thus is justified by the low budget execution seen in the previous year. The risk of insufficient protection of the economy in face of an unexpected fall in in the prices of crude oil is also behind this revision of the numbers and specialists are calling for stricter and more transparent management of oil revenues. However, the forecast of growth in the population over the coming years and an increase in the number of qualified workers are two fundamental factors in leveraging the country s economy. When it comes to the oil industry, Angola expects to increase its production to 1.91 million barrels a day. External factors such as the worsening of the financial crisis in Europe and stagnation in US growth also had an impact on this number. It is also expected that growth in non-oil GDP will grow more than oil GDP. In THE RECOVERY AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE NON-OIL SECTOR WAS AN ALTERNATIVE MOTOR FOR GROWTH ACCORDING TO THE GOVERNMENT: The General State Budget for approved in the Angolan parliament in December 2013, predicts real growth in GDP to 8.8% and the non-oil sector will play an important role in this. The government made it clear that growth forecast of 9.9% will be due to state investment in the non-oil sector and this should also contribute to an increase in employment. Real growth in GDP for the oil sector is expected to grow by 6.5%, supported by annual production, which should reach 655 million barrels. 3 Sources: IMF and the Government of Angola, Portal de Angola ( 7

8 Opportunities 4 RE-LAUNCH OF SECTORS OUTSIDE THE OIL AND DIAMOND INDUSTRIES PROGRAMMES VARIOUS AREAS OF ACTIVITY AGRICULTURE RURAL DEVELOPMENT SOCIAL HOUSING URBAN RENEWAL INFRASTRUCTURES AND MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY Despite the fact that the peace process has created basic conditions to bring normality back to economic activity in the country (making internal mobility possible and fostering commercial activity and investment), the lack of physical infrastructures and human resources continues to restrict the economic evolution of the country. In light of this situation and to continue with the work it has been doing, the main challenge for the Angolan Government is to re-launch the sectors that lie outside the oil and diamond industries in order to increase internal supply and diversify exports, creating employment and reducing poverty. A number of programmes were also approved that cover various areas of activity such as agriculture and rural development, social housing, urban renewal, infrastructures and manufacturing industry OBJECTIVeS 1. INCREASE INTERNAL SUPPLY 2. DIVERSIFY EXPORTS 3. CREATE EMPLOYMENT 4. REDUCE POVERTY 4 Source: Article the numbers for 2011, Expansão, 7 January. 8

9 Summary of the Angolan State Budget for The document to guide spending in Angola for was prepared in order to achieve GDP of 8.8% and a rate of inflation of 8%. The oil sector contributed 45.64% to the budget this year. The non-oil sector contributes 16.90% to this year s budget and external financing brought in 14.27%. The budget gives priority to public administration, which uses around 33.97% of resources. In second place is the social sector with 29.97% of resources (6.17% for education, 4.35% for health, 9.60% for social protection, 7.88% for housing and 1.97% for other expenses of the sector). Economic matters, which include the transport and agriculture sectors, will absorb 19.61% of expenses, followed by defence and public order with around 16.45% There will be support for the expansion of the economic and social infrastructures necessary to increase production, employment (particularly in the non-oil sector) and the well-being of the population. Improvement in the quality of life of the population, involving the youth in active life, developing the private sector and getting Angola to compete on an international level are the other major objectives being pursued by this year s budget. Principal sources consulted Government of Angola The Economist Intelligence (EIU) World Trade Organization (WTO) Banco Nacional de Angola National Institute of Statistics de Angola AICEP - Agência para o Investimento e Comércio Externo de Portugal Paginas/index.aspx National Institute of Statistics Banco de Portugal World Bank International Trade Center BPI Investimentos research Ministry of Finance IMF - International Monetary Fund index.html 5 Source: PANAPRESS 9

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