INDONESIA ECONOMIC QUARTERLY MARCH 2013

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1 INDONESIA ECONOMIC QUARTERLY MARCH 213 PRESSURES MOUNTING Jim Brumby, PREM Sector Manager & Lead Economist Paramadina Public Policy Institute, March 213

2 MARCH 213 IEQ LAUNCH PRESENTATION Steady recent economic growth, but pressures mounting Strong performance can continue but will require policy progress in key areas More evidence on the need and scope for progress in these areas

3 INDONESIA S ECONOMY CONTINUES TO PERFORM WELL Real GDP growth, year-on-year China 9 India Indonesia 9 3 Major Trading Partners Malaysia 3 USA Dec-29 Dec-21 Dec-211 Dec-212 Source: CEIC; World Bank Global Economic Prospects, January 213, and East Asia Update, December 212

4 MOUNTING PRESSURES 1. Investment growth cooling; public infrastructure lagging 2. Real sales and nominal GDP growth: moderating 3. External balances: no relief 4. Fiscal sector: burdened by energy subsidies 5. Poor and vulnerable households: slower pace of improvement

5 INVESTMENT GROWTH: MODERATING 8 Year-on-year growth Real fixed investment Capital goods imports (3-month moving average) 2-4 Mar-9 Dec-9 Oct-1 Jul-11 Apr-12 Jan-13 Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations

6 EXTERNAL BALANCES: STILL UNDER PRESSURE, RECENTLY DUE ESPECIALLY TO OIL & GAS TRADE DEFICIT USD billion USD billion Non-oil and gas balance Oil and gas balance Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations

7 EXTERNAL BALANCES: KEEPING THE NEED TO SUPPORT FDI AND PORTFOLIO FLOWS IN FOCUS USD billion USD billion Net direct investment Net portfolio Net other capital Current account Overall balance Basic balance Dec-9 Dec-1 Dec-11 Dec-12 Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations

8 GROWTH OUTLOOK: MEASURED REAL FINAL SALES GROWTH DECLINING Year-on-year growth Dec-4 Dec- Dec-8 Dec-1 Dec-12 Real final sales Real final domestic sales Real GDP Note: Real final (domestic) sales = Measured private consumption + government consumption + fixed investment + net exports (-net exports) Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations

9 GROWTH OUTLOOK: NOMINAL GDP GROWTH MODERATING Year-on-year growth Dec-4 Dec- Dec-8 Dec-1 Dec-12 Real GDP Nominal GDP Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations

10 NOMINAL INCOME GROWTH: SLOWER IN 212 4, 3,5 USD per capita GDP per capita (constant 212 USD, LHS) IDR per capita (million) , 2,5 GDP per capita (current price IDR, RHS) , 1,5 1, GDP per capita (current price USD, LHS) Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations

11 INFLATION: FOOD PRICE PRESSURES 8 4 Change in CPI from Dec 212 to Feb 213 (LHS) Change in CPI from Dec 212 to Feb 213 (RHS) Green Chili Red Chili Garlic Onion Food inflation excl items* Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations Food inflation

12 ACHIEVING OFFICIAL POVERTY REDUCTION TARGETS WILL BE A STRETCH Poverty rate, percent Change in Poverty rate, percent 2.5 Official Poverty (LHS) 2. RPJM Moderate Target RPJM High Target Annual Change in Poverty

13 FISCAL SECTOR: BURDENED BY INEFFICIENT SPENDING 211 Actual Audited 212 Preliminary Actual 213 Budget 35 IDR trillion IDR trillion Personnel Material Capital Int. Payments Energy subsidy Social Source: MoF; World Bank staff calculations

14 MARCH 213 IEQ LAUNCH PRESENTATION Steady recent economic growth, but pressures mounting Strong performance can continue but will require policy progress in key areas More evidence on the need and scope for progress in these areas

15 NOTWITHSTANDING THE PRESSURES, STRONG PERFORMANCE AND PROGRESS CAN CONTINUE Gross domestic product Consumer price index Budget balance Major trading partner growth Note: CPI is annual average. Government figures for Budget deficit: 212 is preliminary outturn, 213 is approved Budget and 214 is from the 213 Draft Budget Financial Note Source: Ministry of Finance, BPS, Consensus Forecasts Inc., World Bank staff calculations

16 BUT THIS REQUIRES THAT POLICY ADDRESSES MOUNTING PRESSURES Investment: Sustain private investment by providing policy certainty; making ongoing improvements in regulatory framework Work to meet the public infrastructure investment challenge Trade and external balances: Focus on competitiveness rather than import restrictions Fiscal sector: Fuel subsidy reform Households: Food: focus on availability; redirect subsidies Timely responses tend to yield results

17 MARCH 213 IEQ LAUNCH PRESENTATION Steady recent economic growth, but pressures mounting Strong performance can continue but will require policy progress in key areas More evidence on the need and scope for progress in these areas

18 SUCCESSFUL MANUFACTURES RELY ON IMPORTS Value-added in manufactured goods exports Indonesia Domestic goods Domestic services Foreign goods Foreign services Other Transport eq. Electric eq. Machinery Basic metal Chemicals&mi Wood&paper TCF Food prod Mining Agriculture China Source: OECD and WTO Trade in Value-Added (TiVA) statistics

19 FDI HAS ROOM TO INCREASE 8 Inbound FDI, percent of GDP Source: CEIC; World Bank staff calculations

20 PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDS A FURTHER BOOST 1 of GDP Infrastructure investment to GDP (LHS) IDR trillion Real spending (2 prices, RHS) Note: Real value calculated using investment GDP deflator Source: Infrastructure investment data as detailed in Box 5 of March 213 IEQ and World Bank staff calculations

21 TAP INTO THE POTENTIAL OF FAST URBANIZATION Ln GDP per capita (PPP, 25 prices) Indonesia China Per capita GDP against urbanization rates Philippines 35 India Thailand Vietnam 25 Agglomeration areas in Indonesia Source: Indonesia: The Rise of Metropolitan Regions. The World Bank (212)

22 SUMMARY: MARCH 213 IEQ PRESSURES MOUNTING This edition of the IEQ contains analysis on: Fiscal policy analysis of the 212 Budget outturn Trade dynamics insights from new trade in value added data for Indonesia Urbanization harnessing the potential of agglomeration areas Infrastructure investment spending trends and the need for more Key messages: Steady recent economic performance with base case for this to continue But there are some mounting pressures and the risks to the economy are to the downside Timely policy responses tend to yield good results

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