Offshore Wind Market in Europe

Transcription

1 Annual Offshore Support Journal Conference Offshore Wind Market in Europe Status Quo and Future Developments Dirk Briese London,

2 Contents 1. Introduction 2. Politics 3. Offshore Wind Market 4. Cost reduction potentials 5. O&M Offshore Wind Competition/Consolidation 6. Trends, Risks and Opportunities 7. Conclusion 2

3 1. Introduction Sources The following studies and database provide the basis for the speech: Cockpit offshore wind: approx. 900 wind farms worldwide, over 350 criteria per farm, 32 country and company profiles Various studies, e.g.: The market for operation & maintenance in the offshore wind industry until 2030 Cost reduction potentials for the offshore wind energy in Germany The market for founding structures in offshore wind energy in Europe until 2030 (2nd ed.) Special vessels for the offshore wind industry wind:research/trend:research since 1997 in the energy sector over 650 studies more than references, 90 % market coverage 3

4 Cockpit Offshore Wind Bremen

5 1. Introduction Sources Wind farms Master data Project members Transport and installation Financing Approvoal Operation and maintenance Dismantling and repowering Country profiles Framework conditions Political goals Energy mix Grid structure Evaluation Tables Charts Forecasts Run-up-curves More Ports and ships Technologies Clipping Master data Presentation of Press releases of Operator relevant qualifications market actors, Products and services and complementary Recent reports Marketing technologies, Tender texts Ship Data Adjacent technologies, More Cargo SWOT-analysis Availability Market maturity Annual Offshore Support Journal Owner Development Conference wind:research: Offshore Wind Market in Europe: Status Quo and Future Development potentials Individual user administration User selection Selection of individual user rights Independent evaluation More Competition Master data Company data Contracts Marketing Tender SWOT Others Tenders/auctions Participants Costs Forecasts Simulations More 5

6 2. Politics Europe: Framework for climate and energy In December 2016 the European Commission released a new renewable energy directive to be discussed in parliaments starting in January 2017 EU countries have agreed on a new 2030 framework for climate and energy, including EU-wide targets and policy objectives for the period between 2020 and 2030 Targets for 2030: A 40% cut in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 levels At least a 27% share of renewable energy consumption At least 27% energy savings compared with the business-as-usual scenario Policies for 2030: The European Commission has proposed: A reformed EU emissions trading scheme (ETS) New indicators for the competitiveness and security of the energy system (e.g. price differences with major trading partners, diversification of supply, and interconnection capacity between EU countries) First ideas on a new governance system based on national plans for competitive, secure and sustainable energy 6

7 2. Politics Europe: Targets for the development of offshore wind Installed and planned capacity as well as political objectives in the offshore wind energy in selected European countries (Data in MW, rounded) 12,600 24,700 50,000 43,000 66, Ireland k.a. UK Europe France Norway Netherlands k.a. Belgium 01/ Denmark Germany Sweden Finland Information on request Category Installed Capacity Authorized Capacity Planned Capacity Political aims until 2020 Political aims until 2030 Definition Turbines installed, grid connection (partially) completed Project officially authorized Planning: published plans (incl. Information on location, installed capacity, number of turbines, etc.) Respective Government information on the new installation of offshore wind energy (Sources see table Note on countries ) Respective Government information on the new installation of offshore wind energy (Sources see table Note on countries ) Notes on Countries (Political Aims) Belgium Denmark Germany Finland France Ireland Netherlands Norway Sweden UK Sum of offshore wind energy capacities, which have been provided by the government within the EEZ 2020: aim (National RES Industry Roadmap by EDORA) 2020: Forecast (linear new installation assumed) Energy Concept of the German Federal Government 2020: Information on On- und Offshore 2030: Forecast (linear new installation assumed) 2020: (current tenders) 2030: industry association aim National Renewable Energy Action Plan 2009, export scenario 2030: Forecast (linear new installation assumed) 2023: Aim 2030: (maximum, areas for construction within the EEZ) 2020/30: Forecast (linear new installation assumed), based on aim for 2016 to produce ca. 7.5 TWh from Offshore-Wind Energy 2020: Forecast (linear new installation assumed) 2020/30: potential range for deployment (Government s draft Delivery Plan for Electricity Market Reform (EMR)) Europe Sum of selected countries EWEA aim: (2020) 7

8 3. Offshore Wind Market Status Quo Wind energy - Onshore and Offshore - in Europe In 2016 wind energy accounted for 51 % of all new power installations in Europe 12.5 GW connected to the grid (10,923 MW onshore, 1,567 MW offshore), which represents a growth of 3 % compared to the previous year The total wind capacity in Europe now stands at approx. 153 GW. Wind energy has overtaken coal as the second largest form of power generation capacity. Top 10 countries in terms of the installed wind capacity (in MW, rounded) in 2016 in the EU: Country Overall installed capacity in MW (2016) Installed offshore capacity in MW (2016) Germany 50,090 4,100 45,990 Spain 23, ,075 United Kingdom 14,540 5,160 9,380 France 12, ,070 Italy 9, ,260 Sweden 6, ,320 Turkey 6, ,080 Poland 5, ,780 Portugal 5, ,318 Denmark 5,230 1,270 3,960 Installed onshore capacity in MW (2016) Source: wind:research (Cockpit), based on: EWEA, IWR, EuroStat, 8

9 [MW] 3. Offshore Wind Market Status Quo Germany: Wish and reality in the OW development In the past, many forecasts were too optimistic [MW] Prognose der installierten Leistung in der Offshore- Windenergie (kumuliert) Forecast for installed capacity in the offshore wind energy (accumulated) Leitstudie 2007 Ausbau EE dena Netzstudie 2005 Tatsächlich Capacity actually Installierte installed Leistung Source: 2007 pilot study, "Expansion strategy for renewable energies" (BMU in collaboration with the DLR, 2007) ("2007 pilot study"), Dena Netzstudie 2005 Many of the forecasts made in recent years were too optimistic In 2015 and 2016 planned installations could be realised Reasons for delays: see next page 9

10 3. Offshore Wind Market Status Quo Offshore Wind Development Timetable: Germany In the past, many incidents contributed to a delayed/changed expansion of the offshore wind industry for example in Germany: Lack of specialists Lack of well qualified personnel Absentee infrastructure Expansion of harbors etc. Ship capacities Lack of specialised ships for the offshore wind industry Sound of rams Protection of porpoise Withdrawal from nuclear energy Reverse for Renewable Energies Financing problems Uncertain investors Grid connection (TenneT) Numerous ressources EEG apportionment Altmeier-Rösler discussion Consolidation year of famine, thread breakage dilemma of costs 2012 Novella EEG 2014 Aim reduction Network EEG 24: 6-hregulation ONEP et al NA-kap.Allocation EEG 2017 WindSeeG Tender, ablation Cost reduction Dilemmas 10

11 3. Offshore Wind Market Status Quo North Sea Installed capacity (North Sea): MW Under construction: MW January 2017 In operation Global Tech 1 (400 MW) BARD Offshore 1 (400 MW) Veja Mate (402 MW) Trianel Windpark Borkum (200 MW, Ausbaustufe I) Alpha Ventus (60 MW) Borkum Riffgrund 1 (312 MW) [Borkum Riffgrund 2 (448 MW)]* Nordsee One (332,1 MW) Sandbank (288 MW) DanTysk (288 MW) Butendiek (288 MW) Amrumbank West (302 MW) Nordsee Ost (295 MW) Borkum Riffgat (108 MW) Gode Wind (582 MW) Under construction approved planned Meerwind Süd/Ost (288 MW) Nordergründe (111 MW) 11

12 3. Offshore Wind Market Auctions Baltic Sea first OW tender : 1st of March 2017, MW As always Germany invented complicated rules: firstly 500 MW in the Baltic Sea, to be realised in 2021, tendered in March 2017 (in a MW auction) 12

13 3. Offshore Wind Market Auctions North Sea second OW tender : 1st of March 2018, MW Due to grid connection problems (mainly onshore!) North Sea is only second. 500 MW will be realised in 2022; then 700 MW every year from 2023 to Priority attention in regard of projects with an imperative approved grid connection Annual installation of 700 MW from 2023 to 2025 and 840 MW from 2026 to 2030 Tendering in 2021: MW/year (central model) High penalties and entrance costs 13

14 3. Offshore Wind Market Auctions North Sea second OW tender : 1st of March 2018, MW But there are quite a few participants who would like to be successful. Possible participants: MW Kaikas (576 MW) Nördlicher Grund (320 MW) Albatros (395 MW) EnBW He Dreiht (730 MW) Deutsche Bucht (210 MW) Borkum Riffgrund West 1 (266 MW) Trianel Borkum Phase 2 (200 MW) Delta Nordsee 1/ 2 (400 MW) Nordsee Two/ Three (648 MW) OWP West (328 MW) 14

15 3. Offshore Wind Market Auctions Tender volumes and bid pricing Nowadays the expected bid prices and therefore CoE are being discussed Information on request Sometimes quite theoretically No common calculation base not even simplest ones Can up-to-now experiences and results been transfered? From: Foreign markets? Photovoltaics? Others? Which infomation do I need? Where do I get them? How can auctions be simulated? 15

16 Attention: No comparability because of different regimes (grid connection )! 3. Offshore Wind Market Auctions Tender volumes and bid pricing Previous tender results (international) as well as approved quantities led so far to price reductions but mind the details! In Europe, remunerations for terms are designed for 12 to 15 years (Germany: 20) The slammed rate remunerations declined in the last time. The following rate remunerations are extrapolated to 20 years. And: Grid connection rules differ widely! Financing costs are not included. wind farm tariff (original) tariff (in ct/kwh) years granted adjusted tariff (re 20 years) Horns Rev øre/kwh 10,31 ct/kwh 12 7,79 ct/kwh 2018 In operation (planned) Neart na Gaoithe 114,39 /MWh 13,55 ct/kwh 15 11,16 ct/kwh phase 1: 2018/2019 East Anglia 119 /MWh 14,2 ct/kwh 15 11,65 ct/kwh phase 1: march 2019 Borssele 1,2 7,27 ct/kwh 7,27 ct/kwh 15 approx. 6,5 ct/kwh 2020 Kriegers Flak (DK) 37,2 øre/kwh 4,99 ct/kwh (kwh) 3,7 ct/kwh 2021 Borssele 3,4 54,50 /MWh 5,45 ct/kwh 15 < 5 ct/kwh 2023 Hinkley Point 92,50 /MWh 10,8 ct/kwh 35 Ca. 20 ct/kwh 2026 (??) Geman tender Offshore Wind Information on request < 12 ct/kwh? 20 < 12 ct./kwh

17 3. Offshore Wind Market Auctions German tenders in the Cockpit: North Sea scenarios and simulations freely definable Cartographical overview of potential tender participants Example for 2018 (North and Baltic Sea) 17

18 3. Offshore Wind Market Auctions German tenders in the Cockpit 18

19 3. Offshore Wind Market Auctions German tenders in the Cockpit Information about tenders in 2017 and 2018 in the profiles of the projects 19

20 3. Offshore Wind Market: new trends Vessel and installation companies The market consolidation is also ongoing in the area of vessels as well as installation and construction companies: Several market players left the vessel market: German utility RWE s Offshore Logistics Company (OLC) sold all of its installation vessels in Austrian construction company Strabag SE left the offshore wind market in 2014 due to the unclear legal situation, energy policy and missing electricity storage capacities. Hochtief sold its installation vessels and pontoons to its long-time partner GeoSea, a subsidiary of Belgium-based DEME-Group, to focus its activities on the conventional construction business. Siemens sold its A2Sea-stake. These developments leave currently no German installation company in the market. 20

21 3. Offshore Wind Market: new trends Vessel and installation companies Again a new era in design of vessels and logistics is on its way, already in (first) operation and the market leader sets the pace. On the other side, new vessels again has been built, due to new sizes, weights, and requirements, e.g. Siemens ro-ro vessel Source: 21

22 4. Cost reduction potentials Cost reduction potentials in the offshore wind energy: Currently the costs are increasing; perspectively the costs of electricity production will have to decrease. Research and Development Education Engineering Project devlpm./ -planning 0-20% Financing/ Assurance 0-5% Plant manufacturing 5-40% Foundation Tower Nacelle Roto blades 10-40%? 0-10%? 10-50%? 5-15%? Transport/ Installation (plants, parks) 20-50% O & M 0-15% Land transport Port handling Sea transport Installation 0-10% 20-50% 20-40% 10-30% Data based on current costs with according risks (e.g. financing costs/low interest rates) Grid connection 10-20% Dismantling/ Repowering? (not relevant yet) 22

23 4. Cost reduction potentials In a wind:research-study offshore wind farm operators and project planners have been asked which factors the most influence on the cost development of operation and maintenance (O&M) have. The results are outlined as follows: O&M dependent on requirements based on experienced data Synergies through comprehensive O&M-concepts 42% 42% Increasing use of sea-based O&Mconcepts Increasing reliability of turbines and components (reduces unplanned service activities) Lager and faster vessels Optimized remote monitoring systems No assessment possible 11% 11% 16% 16% 21% Multiple answers possible (N = 31) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 23

24 5. O&M Offshore Wind Competition/Consolidation OEM & ISP in conflict OEMs try to keep the ISP out of the market ISPs try to argue with independent expertise and recommendations. OEM Long-term contract, full maintenance ISP Specialised subsidiaries or full service Conflict about: Partial maintenance (high risk, better margin) technical plant data Specialisation or full service Highly competitive specialists Specialists Expertise allows ISP to expand the O&M offer 24

25 5. O&M Offshore Wind Competition/Consolidation O&M Market shares are changing During operation time competition is coming up stronger and market shares are changing. Reduced extend of maintenance 10 to 15 % 25

26 5. O&M Offshore Wind Competition/Consolidation Market volumes and players Market volume Types Market of contract players Market players Market volume Types of contract Information on request 26

27 6. Trends, Risks and Opportunities Competitors: Consolidations The market is still overheated despite the market consolidation, which is (among other things) finding expression in insolvencies. Examples of market consolidation: Sales and Joint Ventures from plant manufacturers, e.g.: ADWEN (Areva and Gamesa Offshore) GE/Alstom Nordex/Acciona Windpower Senvion/Suzlon/Centerbridge Siemens/Gamesa (incl. Adwen) Vestas/MHI Insolvencies from manufacturers of offshore wind foundations, e.g.: Cuxhaven Steel Construction (CSC) WeserWind GmbH Nordseewerke Emden Shipyard GmbH Offshore installations /transport: see above. 27

28 7. Conclusion Trends in the offshore wind market On the long run costs, consolidation and information are crucial and the curse of the winner. Because of increasingly limited space and tougher environmental/touristic/visibility regulations wind farms are build further from shore greater water depths higher OPEX expected Size of turbines per wind farm increase (Gwynt y Môr, Burbo Bank Ex, Gode Wind) Need for foundations with higher load-bearing capacity (e.g. XL-/XXL-MP) Market leaders force up: Dong ( : new goal: 11/12 GW until 2025) Cost reduction is still the key topic in offshore wind market Need for cost effective structures (production, transport, installation) with good track-record/experience to be successful in bidding for tenders Innovative structures need chances to prove their competitiveness (e.g. research funds, prototype sites, ) floating woud be a game changer Consolidation within the offshore wind industry with insolvencies/mergers/sales Accelerated by declining national targets and rising cost pressure Tendering needs lots of information and know-how, e.g. in game theory Beware of the curse of the winner 28

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30 5. Kontakt Do you wish O O O O further information on Cockpit Offshore Wind? further information on wind:research and its services? some data about the current situation of the market or competition? to see current forecasts? O Visit us on our homepage an overview of our wind studies? Or contact us at any time via: Tel: +49 (0) wind:research c/o trend:research GmbH : Parkstraße 123 : Bremen 30

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