International Wind Energy Development

Transcription

1 International Wind Energy Development Thornton Bank II, Belgium, the first commercial 6MW+ turbine installed offshore C-Power N.V., photographer Tom D Haenens. Offshore Report 2013 Published by BTM Consult A Part of Navigant

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3 INTERNATIONAL WIND ENERGY DEVELOPMENT Offshore 2013 Table of Contents Abbreviations and Technical Units... xi Preface...xiii Executive Summary... xvii Chapter 1. Introduction Methodology Limitations of the research... 2 Chapter 2. Status of Global Offshore Wind Power Market update 2011 demand side Market update 2011 supply side... 7 Chapter 3. The Global Offshore Wind Power Market Offshore wind resource in key regions Offshore wind resource in Europe Offshore wind resource in China Offshore wind resource in Japan Offshore wind resource in South Korea Offshore wind resource in the United States Offshore wind market profiles Europe United Kingdom Germany Denmark France Belgium Sweden The Netherlands Ireland (Republic) Other EU countries Asia China Japan South Korea Taiwan North America United States Canada Chapter 4. Structure of the Offshore Wind Market Customers in the market Developers/Operators/Owners Strategies of leading offshore wind farm developers Dong Energy Navigant Consulting, Inc. Page i

4 Offshore 2013 INTERNATIONAL WIND ENERGY DEVELOPMENT Vattenfall E.ON RWE SSE Renewables Centrica Eneco Longyuan Power Group TCW Marubeni Project portfolios held by leading offshore developers Trends on the demand side Geographic location of leading offshore wind farm developers/operator activity Offshore wind turbine suppliers Overview of the offshore turbine market Evolution of offshore turbine technology Technology trends for offshore turbines Traditional multi-megawatt offshore turbine Medium speed turbines Direct drive offshore turbines Hydraulic drive offshore turbines Super-size turbines 10 MW Floating turbines Summary of offshore turbine technology trends Strategic analysis of offshore wind turbine manufacturers Leading OEM suppliers (Tier 1) Recently established OEM suppliers (Tier 2) New entrants (Tier 3) Offshore turbine supplier project portfolios Chapter 5. Offshore Wind Economics & Finance Offshore project financing History of offshore wind project finance Current and future status Offshore wind plant costs CAPEX Capital cost components CAPEX trends OPEX OPEX cost components O&M trends O&M strategies Levelised cost of energy Offshore wind cost reduction pathways overview Aim of initiatives Key outcomes Supply chain Innovation Contracting strategies Page ii 2012 Navigant Consulting, Inc.

5 INTERNATIONAL WIND ENERGY DEVELOPMENT Offshore 2013 Chapter Planning & consenting Grid Finance The Offshore Wind Supply Chain & Technology Trends Offshore wind supply chain strategies Key components Rotor blades Gearboxes Generators Bearings Power converters Power transformers Towers Pitch drive systems Yaw drive systems Control systems Key component materials Castings for offshore wind Forged parts for offshore wind turbines Offshore wind farm balance of plant Offshore foundations Challenges of offshore wind foundations New offshore wind foundation designs Gravity based structures Suppliers of offshore wind steel structures Offshore cable suppliers Substations Specialist installation contractors Installation and construction vessels Types of vessels Installation vessels Contractors for offshore cable installation Cable laying vessels Pile driving hammers Chapter 7. Offshore Wind Infrastructure Offshore wind ports Offshore wind power transmission Overview of offshore wind power grid Challenges of offshore wind power transmission Chapter 8. Offshore Wind Market Forecast and Predictions Introduction to offshore wind market forecast and prediction to Methodology for offshore wind market.forecast to Offshore wind power market forecast to Methodology for market prediction to Offshore wind power market prediction 2017 to Navigant Consulting, Inc. Page iii

6 Offshore 2013 INTERNATIONAL WIND ENERGY DEVELOPMENT market analysis for offshore wind power development to Challenge and opportunities for offshore wind market development Chapter 9. Special Theme: Offshore Wind Shipping and Logistics Macro overview of offshore wind shipping and logistics Offshore market and geographical scoping Definition of shipping and logistics Wind turbine generator - inbound parts (assembly) Installation (outbound) Operations and maintenance Strategic issues for offshore wind shipping and logistics Overview of installation process in Europe Outbound logistics (installation) Types of companies involved and the roles they play Shipping companies involved in offshore wind Logistics companies involved in offshore wind Ports involved in offshore wind Case studies of strategies applied Tactics and practices in offshore wind shipping and logistics Practical experience Best practices and what to avoid case studies Transport cost for offshore wind and its impact on installed cost per megawatt Challenges and trends in offshore wind shipping and logistics Impact on shipping and logistics of ever larger wind turbines Risk management global asset policy Future changes in allocation of supply chain tasks Conclusion: Offshore wind shipping and logistics Index Page iv 2012 Navigant Consulting, Inc.

7 INTERNATIONAL WIND ENERGY DEVELOPMENT Offshore 2013 List of Figures Figure 1-1: Offshore wind power markets around the world... 2 Figure 1-2: Location of sub-suppliers to the offshore wind industry... 3 Figure 2-1: Geographic distribution of global offshore wind installations at end Figure 2-2: Progress of offshore wind turbine development Figure 3-1: European offshore wind resource map Figure 3-2: Frequency of tropical storms and typhoons over China, Figure 3-3: Wind resource map in China Figure 3-4: Offshore wind resource map in Japan Figure 3-5: Offshore wind resource map in South Korea Figure 3-6: Offshore wind resource map in the US Figure 3-7: United States bathymetry distribution Figure 3-8: National plans for offshore wind by Figure 3-9: Offshore wind projects in operation or under construction Figure 3-10: UK offshore wind development process flow chart Figure 3-11: German maritime zones Figure 3-12: Offshore wind farms in the German North Sea Figure 3-13: Offshore wind farms in the German Baltic Sea Figure 3-14: Map of Danish offshore wind projects Figure 3-15: Map of French offshore wind projects with concessions Figure 3-16: Map of offshore wind projects in the Belgian North Sea Figure 3-17: Map of Swedish offshore wind projects Figure 3-18: Map of offshore wind projects in the Netherlands Figure 3-19: Map of offshore wind projects in Ireland Figure 3-20: Definition of wind resource areas in China Figure 3-21: Process of offshore wind project approval in China Figure 3-22: Approved and proposed offshore projects in US waters Figure 4-1: Top 10 operators market share and presence by the end of Figure 4-2: Offshore project ownership by investor type by the end of Figure 4-3: Geographic distribution of Top-20 offshore wind development portfolios Figure 4-4: Distribution of offshore wind development portfolios Figure 4-5: Ownership of offshore wind project portfolios Figure 4-6: Leading offshore wind project developers by country Figure 4-7: Market share of offshore turbine suppliers as of end Figure 4-8: Offshore wind turbine suppliers market strength and position Figure 4-9: Segmentation of offshore turbine size as of end Figure 4-10: First deployment of commercial offshore turbine technology as of end of Figure 4-11: Evolution of commercial offshore wind turbine technology Figure 4-12: Development timeline of medium speed Multi-MW offshore wind turbines Figure 4-13: Development of direct drive technology for offshore wind turbine application Figure 4-14: Installed floating offshore wind turbine projects Figure 4-15: Foundations for Fukushima Recovery Experimental Offshore Floating Wind Farm Figure 4-16: Road map of offshore wind turbine technology development Figure 4-17: Classification of offshore turbine suppliers Figure 4-18: Summary of established OEMs' market strength in offshore wind sector Figure 4-19: Segmentation of product size (Siemens) Navigant Consulting, Inc. Page v

8 Offshore 2013 INTERNATIONAL WIND ENERGY DEVELOPMENT Figure 4-20: Siemens offshore wind turbine installations by country Figure 4-21: Segmentation of product size (Vestas) Figure 4-22: Vestas offshore wind turbine installations by country Figure 4-23: Breakdown of OEM project pipelines by country Figure 5-1: Overview of features of the major fund classes Figure 5-2: Offshore wind project overview of key phases Figure 5-3: Offshore wind plant capital cost breakdown Figure 5-4: O&M employees per MW Figure 5-5: Offshore wind installations by plant size Figure 5-6: O&M costs by category and year Figure 5-7: O&M cost forecast Figure 5-8: LCOE as a function of CAPEX and NCF Figure 6-1: Breakdown of costs for a conventional offshore wind turbine Figure 6-2: Overview of offshore wind foundations Figure 6-3: Market share of different offshore wind foundation type Figure 6-4: New monopile designs from DNV Figure 6-5: Four selected foundation designs for Round 3 sites Figure 7-1: Offshore wind ports in Northern Europe Figure 7-2: Illustration of existing and future interconnectors Figure 8-1: Forecast for offshore wind power installations 2012 to Figure 8-2: Cumulative global growth of offshore wind power capacity to Figure 9-1: Offshore wind farm installation case study with low degree of turbine assembly at the site Figure 9-2: Offshore wind farm installation case study with higher degree of assembly at sea Figure 9-3: Installation of on-shore transformer station, export/array cables, and offshore substation Page vi 2012 Navigant Consulting, Inc.

9 INTERNATIONAL WIND ENERGY DEVELOPMENT Offshore 2013 List of Tables Table 2-1: Installed global offshore wind power (MW)... 5 Table 2-2: Offshore wind test sites... 6 Table 2-3: Status of offshore projects under construction in Table 2-4: Operating offshore wind farms at end Table 2-5: Commercial offshore turbine suppliers (end 2011 figures) Table 3-1: Overview of results from UK Crown Estate Rounds 1, 2, Table 3-2: Projects in The Crown Estate Round 3 & Scottish Territorial Waters Table 3-3: German offshore wind projects in operation Table 3-4: German pipeline of offshore wind projects in North Sea and Baltic Sea Table 3-5: German pipeline of pre-consent offshore wind projects in North Sea and Baltic Sea Table 3-6: Offshore wind projects in Denmark Table 3-7: Offshore wind project pipeline in Denmark Table 3-8: Offshore wind project pipeline in France Table 3-9: Offshore project pipeline in the Belgian North Sea Table 3-10: Offshore wind projects in Sweden Table 3-11: Offshore wind project pipeline in Sweden Table 3-12: Offshore wind projects pipeline in the Netherlands Table 3-13: Offshore wind project pipeline in Ireland Table 3-14: Offshore wind project pipeline for Finland Table 3-15: Overview of the first Chinese offshore concession projects Table 3-16: Comparison of purchase prices for onshore wind, intertidal and offshore wind Table 3-17: Chinese offshore wind project pipeline Table 3-18: Offshore wind project pipeline in Japan Table 3-19: Offshore wind project pipeline in South Korea Table 3-20: Wind Power Promotion Target of Commissioned Capacity in Taiwan (Unit: MW) Table 3-21: The Incentive Program of Offshore Wind Power Demonstration System in Taiwan Table 3-22: Regulated power purchase prices for offshore wind power in Taiwan Table 4-1: Offshore wind farm owners/operators by the end of Table 4-2: Top ten offshore wind farm operators by the end of Table 4-3: Top 20 global offshore wind development portfolios Table 4-4: Overview of offshore wind turbine deployment Table 4-5: Traditional Multi-MW ( MW) turbines designed for offshore application Table 4-6: Multi-MW Medium Speed Turbines Designed for Offshore Application Table 4-7: Multi-MW direct drive turbines designed for offshore wind application Table 4-8: Multi-MW hydraulic & hybrid drive wind turbines designed for offshore application Table 4-9: Progress of R&D on super-size offshore wind turbines Table 4-10: Strategic analysis Siemens offshore Table 4-11: Strategic analysis Vestas offshore Table 4-12: Strategic analysis REpower offshore Table 4-13: Strategic analysis Sinovel offshore Table 4-14: Strategic analysis Areva Wind offshore Table 4-15: Strategic analysis BARD offshore Table 4-16: Strategic analysis GE Wind offshore Table Strategic analysis Alstom Wind offshore Table 4-18: Strategic analysis XEMC Darwind offshore Navigant Consulting, Inc. Page vii

10 Offshore 2013 INTERNATIONAL WIND ENERGY DEVELOPMENT Table 4-19: Strategic analysis Goldwind offshore Table 4-20: Strategic analysis Mingyang offshore Table 4-21: Strategic analysis Mitsubishi offshore Table 4-22: Project pipelines held by Tier 1 offshore turbine suppliers Table 4-23: Project pipelines held by Tier 2 offshore turbine suppliers Table 4-24: Project pipelines held by Tier 3 offshore turbine suppliers Table 5-1: Overview of recent significant project finance deals in offshore wind Table 5-2: Profile for pension and insurance funds Table 5-3: Profile for Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) Table 5-4: Profile for infrastructure funds Table 5-5: Profile for Private Equity (PE) funds Table 5-6: Profile for commercial banks Table 5-7: Baseline assumptions for example offshore wind farm Table 5-8: Overview of fundamental CAPEX components Table 5-9: Approximated CAPEX for offshore wind projects in the EU Table 5-10: Approximated CAPEX for offshore wind projects in China Table 5-11: Key factors influencing CAPEX Table 5-12: Overview of innovations impacting costs Table 5-13: Overview of fundamental OPEX components Table 5-14: Operations and maintenance costs for a 500 MW reference plant Table 5-15: Trends that will impact O&M costs Table 5-16: Major O&M strategy elements and best practices Table 5-17: Specific recommendations from UK's Offshore Wind Cost Reduction Task Force Table 6-1: Sources of key components for selected wind turbine suppliers Table 6-2: Independent blade manufacturers Table 6-3: Gearbox suppliers for offshore wind turbines Table 6-4: Independent generator manufacturers with offshore wind applications Table 6-5: Suppliers of large bearings for offshore turbines Table 6-6: Independent power converter suppliers for offshore turbines Table 6-7: Independent power transformer suppliers for offshore turbines Table 6-8: Independent tower suppliers for offshore turbines Table 6-9: Main pitch drive unit suppliers for offshore wind Table 6-10: Main yaw gearbox suppliers for offshore wind Table 6-11: Independent suppliers of main control systems for offshore wind Table 6-12: Independent suppliers of castings to the offshore wind industry Table 6-13: Foundries supplying main forged parts to the offshore wind turbine industry Table 6-14: Suppliers of offshore wind foundations gravity based structures Table 6-15: Suppliers of offshore wind steel structures Table 6-16: Cable suppliers to the offshore wind industry Table 6-17: Manufacturers of offshore wind farm sub-stations Table 6-18: Offshore wind specialist contractors Table 6-19: Types of offshore wind installation vessels Table 6-20: Offshore wind installation vessels Jack-up barges and ships Table 6-21: Offshore wind installation vessels Heavy lift vessels Table 6-22: Offshore wind installation vessels under construction and planned- Jack-up barges Table 6-23: Offshore wind installation vessels under construction and planned- Heavy lift vessels Table 6-24: Weight of commercial offshore wind turbines Table 6-25: Contractors for offshore wind cable installation Page viii 2012 Navigant Consulting, Inc.

11 INTERNATIONAL WIND ENERGY DEVELOPMENT Offshore 2013 Table 6-26: Cable laying vessels suitable for offshore wind Table 6-27: Suppliers of piling hammers to the offshore wind industry Table 7-1: Overview of ports for offshore wind in Germany & Denmark Table 7-2: Overview of ports for offshore wind in the UK Table 7-3: Overview of ports for offshore wind in the Netherlands, Belgium, France, & China Table 7-4: Port facilities across key functions Table 7-5: List of existing and future interconnectors Table 8-1: Forecast for offshore wind power development up to 2016 (MW) Table 8-2: Prediction for offshore wind development 2017 to 2021 (MW) Table 8-3: 360 market overview of key offshore wind power markets Table 9-1: Shipping and logistics activities in six identified stages of offshore wind farm development Table 9-2: Danish freight forwarders with long-term involvement in wind energy transportation Table 9-3: Examples of more recent regional freight forwarder entrants Table 9-4: Global freight forwarders already active in or entering the offshore wind arena Table 9-5: Key European ports involved in offshore wind Table 9-6: ORECCA projections of port requirements to handle large scale OSWF installation Table 9-7: Port of Esbjerg 2020 wind energy expansion strategy and investment plan Table 9-8: Wind Scenario Model tool segregating offshore wind transport costs through Navigant Consulting, Inc. Page ix

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13 INTERNATIONAL WIND ENERGY DEVELOPMENT Offshore 2013 Abbreviations and Technical Units Accu. AWEA CAPEX CO2 DOE EEA EU EWEA IEA IPCC IPP JV LCOE NCF NEA NREL O&M OPEX PMG PPA PTC PV REFIT RFP RPS WTG Accumulated = Cumulative American Wind Energy Association Capital Expenditure Carbon Dioxide (also CO2) United States Department of Energy European Environment Agency European Union European Wind Energy Association International Energy Agency Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Independent Power Producer Joint Venture Levelised Cost of Energy Net Capacity Factor Chinese National Energy Administration National Renewable Energy Laboratory Operation and Maintenance Operational Expenditure Permanent Magnet Generator Power Purchase Agreement Production Tax Credit Photovoltaic = Solar cells Renewable Energy Feed In Tariffs Request For Proposal (bidding process) Renewable Portfolio Standard Wind Turbine Generator = Wind Turbine Technical units: kj = kilo Joule = 1,000 Joule kw = kilo Watt = 1,000 Watt MW = Mega Watt = 1,000 kw GW = Giga Watt = 1,000 MW kwh kilo Watt hour = 1,000 Wh = 3,600 kj = kg of oil MWh Mega Watt hour = 1,000 kwh GWh Giga Watt hour = 1,000,000 kwh = 1,000 MWh TWh Tera Watt hour = 1,000,000 MWh = 1,000 GWh k = kilo = 1,000 = 10 3 M = Mega = 1,000,000 = 10 6 G = Giga = 1,000,000,000 = 10 9 T = Tera = 1,000,000,000,000 = Capacity Factor (CF) Annual Energy Production (kwh) WTG name plate capacity (kw) x 8760 hours x 100 % 2012 Navigant Consulting, Inc. Page xi

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15 INTERNATIONAL WIND ENERGY DEVELOPMENT Offshore 2013 Published by BTM Consult ApS, a part of Navigant Consulting, Inc., Chicago, Illinois USA ISBN: Phone: Fax: Contacts: Feng Zhao feng.zhao@navigant.com Aris Karcanias aris.karcanias@navigant.com Birger T. Madsen birger.madsen@navigant.com Per Krogsgaard per.krogsgaard@navigant.com Bruce Hamilton bruce.hamilton@navigant.com For more information about Navigant, go to: Cover illustration: The photo on the cover illustrates REpower s 6M 6.15 MW offshore wind turbine recently installed in Thornton Bank phase II, in Belgium. Phases II & III are the industrial phases following a pilot phase I that used the 5M turbine. The 6M prototype was first installed in 2009 in Ellhöft, Schleswig-Holstein, Germany. The 6M is the largest commercial scale turbine installed in offshore waters at the point of publication. The turbine has a power rating of 6.15 MW, a rotor diameter of 126 metres, and its drivetrain consists of a three-stage planetary helical gear system and a doubly-fed induction generator. Copyright of this photograph belongs to C-Power N.V., photographer Tom D Haenens. C-Power has provided Navigant s BTM Consult permission to use the photograph for the front page of the Offshore Report This photo may not be reproduced, reprinted or stored in any form without the permission of C-Power. The photograph provided on the back cover of the Offshore Report 2013 was provided with permission from the Port of Esbjerg in Denmark while it was hosting offshore installation vessels MPI Resolution and MPI Discovery. Copyright 2012 by BTM Consult ApS All Rights Reserved Navigant Consulting, Inc. ( Navigant ) has provided the information in this publication for informational purposes only. Navigant does not make any express or implied warranty or representation concerning the information contained in this publication, or as to merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or function. Any reference to a specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise, does not constitute or imply an endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by Navigant. Navigant and its subsidiaries and affiliates hereby disclaim liability for any loss or damage caused by errors or omissions in this publication. This publication is intended for the sole and exclusive use of the original purchaser. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, distributed or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or otherwise, including use in any public or private offering, without the prior written permission of Navigant Consulting, Inc., Chicago, Illinois, USA. Note: Editing of this report was closed on November 9, Navigant Consulting, Inc. Page xv

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17 Executive Summary This summary highlights main developments in the international offshore wind market during the past two years and main industry growth trends as projected in this report s forecast to 2016 and medium term prediction to Key findings are included from the latest update of the balance of plant supply situation and from this reportʹs analyses of offshore wind financing, including future CAPEX and OPEX requirements. The report includes a special focus on the current shipping and logistics situation for offshore wind farm construction. Demand side market growth in 2011 Installation of 470 MW of new offshore wind generating capacity in 2011 brought the cumulative global total to 3,987 MW. This was an increase in total installed capacity of 13%. Annual market growth declined in the third year following the global financial crisis. The highlights on the demand side were: HIGHLIGHTS OF OFFSHORE WIND POWER DEVELOPMENT IN 2011 Cumulative installation of 3.99 GW. More than 5 GW under construction Nearly 100 GW offshore project portfolios identified globally Europe is the largest offshore wind continent, the UK is the largest offshore wind market Seven out of the Top 10 wind farm operators are European utilities and two are from Asia Siemens and Vestas are the largest offshore turbine suppliers, sharing 86% of the total global market 470 MW of offshore wind power was installed during 2011, representing 1.13% of total new wind capacity that year; 127 wind turbines were erected off the shores of four countries in eight projects, bringing cumulative installed The industry has seen the deployment of three drivetrain concepts HVDC cables and cabling vessels are still bottlenecks offshore wind capacity globally to 3,987 MW by the end of This year s forecast and prediction 2011; indicate offshore on track for Europe maintained its leading position as the most active region for offshore wind development, with 77% of all new increased contribution to wind power in Europe installations in Over 70% of the worldʹs additional offshore capacity was installed in the UK in 2011 making it the world s largest offshore market. Asia experienced offshore wind growth in 2011, but China is the only country to have installed offshore wind turbines in commercial projects, erecting 108 MW of new capacity in 2011, making it the second largest offshore wind market in the world that year; Of the Top 10 countries listed in order of total installed offshore wind capacity the UK maintained its top position in 2011, followed by Denmark, the Netherlands, China, Germany and Belgium; By the end of 2011, more than 5,000 MW of offshore wind power was under construction in Belgium, Denmark, Germany, the UK, Sweden, China, Japan and South Korea. CAPEX costs of over 4m/MW have been seen for the emerging class of offshore wind projects in Europe, an increase which is 1.5 times to more than double the cost of early large scale European and Chinese offshore projects; Customers in the market and their offshore project portfolios Nearly 50 commercial offshore wind farms were in operation around the world at the end of 2011, of which 78% were owned and operated by the Top 10 offshore wind operators. Two years ago, that figure was 85%. Of the Top 10 offshore wind farm operators, the top seven are leading European utilities, while two represent increased Asian presence in the market; The top Europe wind farm operators are

18 Vattenfall, Dong Energy, E.ON and RWE. The two leading Asian players are Longyuan Power Group, of China, and Japan s Marubeni; With an 85.1% market share, utilities dominate as owners of offshore wind plant, followed distantly by financial institutions and industrial conglomerates; Offshore wind projects identified in development portfolios amounted to nearly 100 GW as of October 2012, of which 86% is in Europe, followed by China with 5% and South Korea with 4%. Supply side wind turbine manufacturers and supporting technologies The main findings from this reportʹs analysis of the supply side pertain to wind turbine manufacturers, the segmentation of turbine supply into size classes according to rated capacity, and the most recent turbine technology trends. Siemens and Vestas are the two market leaders in offshore wind turbine supply, sharing 86% of the cumulative installed offshore wind generating capacity, followed by Repower and Sinovel; Wind turbines with a rated capacity of 3.6 MW account for 30% of total installations with the 3 MW size class not far behind; 5 MW wind turbines have been available for commercial offshore installation since 2008, but they make up only 8.4% of the total market as of the end of 2011; The average rated capacity of individual turbines installed offshore increased from 2,794 kw in to 3,700 kw in 2011; The next generation of offshore turbine technology specifically designed for offshore deployment is ready for market introduction; the largest commercial offshore turbine installed in European waters is in the 6 MW size range and supplied by Repower; The current offshore wind market is still dominated by wind turbines with traditional fast speed drivetrains, but new drivetrain concepts for offshore turbines are emerging, namely direct drive plus PMG led by Siemens, Alstom and Goldwind, a medium speed system with PMG represented by Vestas, Areva and Samsung and a game changing hydraulic drivetrain technology under development by Mitsubishi; Japan intends to lead the way in floating offshore wind technology, but Siemens and Vestas are the only turbine manufacturers to have megawatt scale turbines installed on floating foundations.

19 Market forecast for and market prediction for Most of the projects included in the forecast period (2012 to 2016) are already in progress and in many cases the wind turbines have been ordered and the commission date set. In the prediction period (2017 to 2021), the size of project pipelines identified in key markets is significant, but these projects are at an early stage of development, making them highly sensitive to macro economic changes and other factors. At the end of the forecast period, the annual rate of new capacity is expected to surpass 5.6 GW. At that rate, cumulative offshore wind capacity over the next five years is forecast to reach 23.9 GW. Europe will continue to lead the world in offshore wind power to 2016, both in terms of annual new capacity and cumulative installed capacity. Asia will account for 25 % of global offshore wind capacity installations during the five year forecast period. Offshore wind turbine installation in the US is expected to start in 2014, two to three years later than forecast in this reportʹs 2010 edition. By the end of the prediction period in 2021, cumulative global offshore wind power will pass 77.4 GW in installed capacity. The average annual growth rate for new installations in the prediction period is expected to be 15.6%. Europe will account for 63% of total global offshore wind installation and maintain its position as global market leader. China, the UK and Germany will be the world s three largest national offshore wind markets by the end of 2021, both in terms of annual new capacity and cumulative installed capacity. Cumulative installation of offshore wind Power until ,000 80,000 70,000 Cummulative Installed Capacity (MW) 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 US Asia Europe 10, Forecast Year Prediction Source: BTM Consult A Part of Navigant, November 2012