SPOTLIGHT Residential insight New developments Market outlook. 180% Resales price growth in the Principality over 10 years
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1 SPOTLIGHT 2017 Residential insight New developments Market outlook 180% Resales price growth in the Principality over 10 years 4.3m Average resales price in Monaco in 2016
2 FOREWORD Global hotspot Residential property in Monaco is now the world s most expensive however, transaction volumes are falling as the market reaches a sticking point Monaco is home to world-class sporting and entertainment events, successful sports teams and a royal family. With a population of 38,400, it is a big country in miniature. Spoken about in the same breath as the premier world cities, Monaco punches well above its weight on the global stage. The Principality is a low-tax centre of commerce with all the characteristics of a leisure destination. This makes it very appealing to high-net-worth individuals as a place to live, do business and play. Prices have adjusted in the prime residential markets of many cities, yet Monaco s have continued to rise At a time when prices have adjusted in the prime residential markets of many world cities, prices in Monaco have continued to rise. In 2016, average sales prices reached a record high of 41,400psm, overtaking Hong Kong to become the most expensive residential real estate in the world. This comes as a number of high-profile new developments have completed, although fewer are expected in the near term. Wealthy residents hold their properties for long periods, so market liquidity is low. Monaco s position on the global stage is assured, but owning a piece of it will be more difficult and come at an ever-higher price. Paul Tostevin Associate Director +44 (0) ptostevin@savills.com Summary Record year A record 2.7 billion of residential property was transacted in High resales price The average resales price is now 41,400psm, the highest in prime markets globally. New build premium There is a signifi cant premium for new build. Sales accounted for 6% of transactions by number, but 17% by value. Market illiquidity Lack of new supply and illiquidity in the market may dampen transaction volumes in the near term. Long-term planning Ambitious urban expansion and renewal projects will secure the Principality s long-term success. savills.com/research 3
3 RESIDENTIAL MARKET Setting new records on the global stage Residential property in Monaco is now the world s most expensive. Large properties are in high demand and trade at a price premium, with the average resale price in 2016 up 180% in a decade WORDS PAUL TOSTEVIN A record 2.7 billion of residential property was transacted in This was the third year that total transactions exceeded 2 billion, with strong demand for limited product pushing prices to new highs. Residential property in Monaco is now the most expensive in the world. The average resale price in 2016 was 4.3 million or 41,400psm, up 180% in a decade a growth rate largely unseen in other developed economies. By comparison, prime London prices grew by 70% over the same period according to our World Cities data. In common with other prime districts across the globe, large properties are in high demand and trade at a price premium. One-bedroom properties averaged 36,300psm, compared to 48,500psm for four-bedroom and larger properties a 33% premium. Monaco attracts a diverse range of international buyers seeking security, wealth preservation or a business base. British, Italian, Scandinavian and South African buyers were especially active last year. Towards the end of 2016 and into 2017, market activity slowed as buyers adopt a wait and see approach ahead of the elections in France (a major trading partner) and wider global political events. With prices at record highs, wealthy vendors are unwilling to negotiate down and transaction volumes are now falling. Monaco outperforms London prime Residential price growth since 2006 in euro terms Prime price per square metre 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, dip Modest price falls in Monaco in wake of GFC, one year after London s similar dip 2016 high Prices reach 41,400, over twice that of prime London in Euro terms Key: Monaco London (EUR) Prevailing EUR/GBP exchange rates Year Source Savills World Research and IMSEE 4 savills.com/research
4 RESIDENTIAL MARKET Market dashboard 4.3m Average resale price in % Compound average annual price growth since Transactions in 2016 International Price league Savills World Research statistics on Prime and Ultra-Prime values per square metre Monaco Hong Kong Tokyo London New York Shanghai Paris Moscow Singapore Dubai 11,900 11,700 6,100 11,100 17,600 16,700 15,300 25,900 10,200 13,900 33,900 41,400 39,100 29,200 41,300 45,200 46,700 60, , year prime price growth Monaco s impressive price growth eclipses other major cities 117,200 Key: Prime Ultra prime 2.7bn Monaco 180% Singapore 75% Paris 32% Moscow 26% Total of residential property transacted 13.7m Average new-build sales price in 2016 Source IMSEE London 70% Hong Kong 111% Source Savills World Research New York 45% Tokyo 13% Dubai -8% Shanghai 248% savills.com/research 5
5 RESIDENTIAL MARKET RESIDENTIAL MARKET Small supply, high demand Monaco continues to face high demand from the world s high-net-worth individuals, which is driving price growth and plans for new property development In comparison At just 2 sq km, Monaco is the world s second smallest country Larvotto Average resale price 2016: 6.4m Monaco London's Hyde Park La Rousse Average resale price 2016: 3.3m Testimonio II 156-unit residential development for Monégasque nationals Tour Giroflées 22-storey tower with 73 residential units and a fitness centre Palais de la Plage 15-storey development replacing the oldest building in the Larvotto area Le Portier This six-hectare land reclamation scheme will add 54,980sqm of habitable space, including 10 villas, 115 apartments and retail premises. Completion 2025 New development Les Moneghetti Average resale price 2016: 5.6m Le Stella Mixed-use scheme of two villas and 99 apartments, with retail and commercial space Jardin Exotique Average resale price 2016: 2.4m Tour Odéon Completed in 2016, this 49 storey, 70-unit development contains a five-storey 3,300sqm penthouse La Condamine Average resale price 2016: 4.3m Monaco Ville Average resale price 2016: 1.6m Fontvieille Average resale price 2016: 5.8m Le Méridien 14-storey residential and mixed-use development completed in 2015 Monte Carlo Average resale price 2016: 5m La Petite Afrique Completed at the end of 2016, the building overlooks Monte Carlo Casino gardens and boasts seven apartments of sqm Sporting d Hiver Designed by Richard Rogers, this redevelopment will contain six residential pavilions, plus commercial and cultural space 26 Carré D or A contemporary mixed-use development due to be completed in 2018 In 2016, the average selling price of new-build properties in Monaco was 13.7 million three times higher than resale properties of a different (sometimes dated) specification. In total, only 553 properties were sold in Of these, 33 were new-build just 6% of the market. However, in terms of value, these properties represented 17% of the market. New developments, such as Tour Odéon and La Petite Afrique, have brought property to Monaco that s up to the standards of other major world cities. Designed to meet the demands of wealthy international occupiers, the well-appointed, spacious residential units offered are priced accordingly. A large proportion of Monaco s housing stock was developed in the 1960s and 70s, and many of these properties are looking dated and ripe for renewal and refurbishment. In the next wave of development, international architects are raising the design stakes for example, La Petite Afrique, which was designed by Brazilian Isay Weinfeld, provides large apartments with flow through terraces, while Sporting d Hiver, a large mixed-use development that s currently under construction on Golden Square, is designed by British architect Richard Rogers. Civic buildings are getting the treatment, too: the new building for the Yacht Club de Monaco is by British firm Foster and Partners. 6 savills.com/research savills.com/research 7
6 ECONOMY THE DIVERSE ECONOMY CREATES A STRONG BASE A diverse economy that includes high-quality manufacturing and marine sciences, alongside finance and tourism, has helped Monaco develop a dynamic base Monaco s economy is performing strongly. Average annual real GDP growth in the five years to 2015 stood at 5.4%, outperforming the wider Eurozone, which grew by just 1.2% per annum over the same period. The Principality s economy also grew faster than the rival private wealth hotspots of Zurich, Geneva and Luxembourg, which had average five-year GDP growth rates of 1.6%, 1.3% and 3.4% respectively. At 166,000, GDP per capita is the second highest globally (just behind Liechtenstein). Monaco is a net importer of labour, employing 47,504 people in the private sector, of which 76% reside in France. In contrast to many other small states built on single economic sectors (usually financial services), Monaco s economy is highly diversified. Marine sciences, tourism, gambling, high-value manufacturing and construction, as well as private banking and insurance, all contribute to the economic base. Wealth infrastructure Monaco is home to the highest concentration of millionaires in the world. WealthInsight counts 31 millionaires per 100 residents, an increase of 7% since Fast and direct connections to the rest of the continent have helped this figure rise. Independent of the EU, but physically connected to it, Monaco benefits from two state-of-the-art marinas Port Hercules and Port de Fontvieille with another, Port de Cap d Ail, located immediately adjacent in neighbouring France. The Héliport de Monaco provides a six-minute connection to Nice Côte d Azur International Airport. The Principality s diversified economy The distribution of economic output by sector for Monaco and Luxembourg 24% 21% 17% 16% 15% 7% Monaco 23% 13% 26% 11% 11% 16% Luxembourg Key: Public services Scientific, technical & administrative services Wholesale & retail Financial & insurance Construction & real estate Other industries & services The latest available economic data is for Source Savills World Research using IMSEE and Oxford Economics 8 savills.com/research
7 MAJOR PROJECTS Monaco in 2025 A dynamic city state, Monaco is planning for the future in order to cement its position on the global stage. The next decade will see expansion and land reclaimed from the sea, ambitious urban renewal projects and interests outside Monaco s borders. Three projects alone will bring two new marinas, new cultural facilities and public spaces, and more than 100,000sqm of residential and commercial floorspace FUTURE-BUILDING SPORTING D HIVER Redeveloped as a whole new city quarter, Sporting d Hiver will maximise use of an iconic site on Casino Square. The mixed-use scheme will provide an art gallery, conference centre, and residential and commercial space, all set within a high-quality public realm. BEYOND BORDERS CALA DEL FORTE Monaco s marinas are at full capacity. To meet demand, the Principality s government has acquired a marina in the Italian town of Ventimiglia, 14.6km east. Due to complete in 2019, Cala del Forte Marina will be fully integrated into the Port of Monaco, offering 171 berths for yachts of up to 60m in length. SEA-STEALING LE PORTIER Six hectares of land will be reclaimed from the sea to extend Grimaldi Forum and provide new villas and apartments, a marina and public space in the form of a park and promenade. Tests have begun ahead of construction. Due to complete in savills.com/research 9
8 OUTLOOK & CONTACTS Monaco outlook Prices to remain at record highs Buyers are becoming more price sensitive, but with an ongoing supply-demand imbalance, we don t foresee any potential for downward adjustment. Shortage of new properties for sale There were no completions in 2016 and not until Le Portier completes will there be any volumes of new supply. We anticipate a shortage of new product in the near term. Ongoing global political uncertainty While some are adopting a wait and see approach, in the long term Monaco s safe-haven credentials will underpin demand. Changes to the UK s non-domicile rules from 2017 could see more expats choosing Monaco as a base. Building a worldclass destination Monaco is currently investing extensively in infrastructure to secure its position as a worldclass business and leisure destination. Savills World Research We monitor global real estate markets and the forces that shape them. Working with our teams across the globe, and drawing on market intelligence and published data, we produce a range of market-leading publications, as well as providing bespoke research services to our clients. World Research Yolande Barnes Director +44 (0) ybarnes@savills.com Paul Tostevin Associate Director +44 (0) ptostevin@savills.com Global Residential Monaco Residential Hugo Thistlethwayte Head of International +44 (0) hthistlethwayte@savills.com Jean-Claude Caputo Partner jccaputo@savills.com Irene Luke Partner iluke@savills.com Nathalie Gamory Sales Director ngamory@savills.com Savills plc: Savills is a leading global real estate service provider listed on the London Stock Exchange. The company was established in 1855 and has a rich heritage with unrivalled growth. It is a company that leads rather than follows, and now has more than 700 offices and associates throughout the Americas, Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East. This report is for general informative purposes only. It may not be published, reproduced or quoted, in part or in whole, nor may it be used as a basis for any contract, prospectus, agreement or other document without prior consent. While every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, Savills accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from its use. The content is strictly copyright and reproduction of the whole or part of it in any form is prohibited without written permission from Savills Research. 10 savills.com/research
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