FCGM - Soc. de Med. Imob., S.A. AMI 5086 Realtors - Med. Imob., Lda. AMI www. s iimgroup. p t. infosiimgroup

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1 FCGM - Soc. de Med. Imob., S.A. AMI 5086 Realtors - Med. Imob., Lda. AMI 5070 www. s iimgroup. p t SEPTEMBER2018

2 Economic and Monetary Summary The European Central Bank (ECB) left benchmark interest rates unchanged and confirmed the interruption of the asset purchase program until the end of 2018, not anticipating changes in the rates until next Summer. Despite the turbulence caused by the trade war, principally involving the USA and China, it is estimated as having a reduced impact on the growth of the European economy. The projections for growth in European GDP in 2018 dropped from 2.10% to 2% and those for 2019 from 1.90% to 1.80%. With regard to the Portuguese economy and to its macroeconomic context, while some indicators remained strong, others did fall a little. For the first time in some years, tourism started to slow down in the last months of the Summer. Seeing that from the perspective of the balance of trade the deficit is also higher than the previous year, domestic consumption has been supporting the growth of the economy, with loans to individuals reaching successive highs in recent months. Home s price index and volume of transactions The number of transactions continued to increase in the 2nd quarter of 2018, reaching maximum values for recent years. Growth in annual terms is 24% in number and 35% in value for almost all the regions analysed, including the Lisbon Metropolitan Area (LMA). These values for the Country and for the LMA are already more than double those recorded only 3 years ago. The only region on the Continent to present slightly lower growth was the Algarve with, respectively, +14% and +29% ,2 m.m No. of sales of accommodation, in units ,6 m.m ,9 m.m ,6 m.m. 5,4 m.m Sale values of accommodation, in thousands 2T2017 3T2017 4T2017 1T2018 2T2018 Total national - No. New - No. Existing - No. Total National - Value 01

3 In terms of the Price Index, the rise in new buildings started to slow down whereas existing buildings continued to present more robust growth % T2013 3T2013 4T2013 1T2014 2T2014 3T2014 4T2014 1T2015 2T2015 3T2015 4T2015 1T2016 2T2016 3T2016 4T2016 1T2017 2T2017 3T2017 4T2017 1T2018 2T2018 National Total Existing New APPII Workshop - Financing in property development It was revealed in this event that, according to the estimates of the Portuguese Association of Real Estate Developers and Investors, the real estate market managed to attract investments of 70 thousand million Euros (ME) since This value includes all the investment that was made in property during this period, without resorting to the Banking Sector - "We are talking of equity, national and foreign, private and institutional, that was applied in everything that is real estate, like the construction of office buildings or of houses or on the acquisition of buildings, commercial centres or houses", said the vice-president of APPII, Hugo Santos Ferreira. A large part of this investment was made by foreigners and in part through vehicles (real estate funds or not) whose capital structure is not known (as was also highlighted in the Bank of Portugal s speech in this seminar). However, this investment represents a similar value to that of the Troika s intervention package in Portugal, being highly representative of the multiplier effect on the national economy. There are, however, aspects that require special attention: 1) The necessary contraction of activity during the period of adjustment of the economy meant that the construction sector was dismantled with a transfer of resources abroad and/or the bankruptcy of countless companies. When business resumed pace, a number of bottlenecks occurred due to a lack of resources. 02

4 At the moment it is very difficult to foresee the costs of carrying out the works as delays and price reviews of contract works are frequent. 2) There is no public register of the works approved by the municipalities and so it is difficult to estimate how availability in the property market will evolve in the coming years. This topic is all the more important at the moment as we are seeing an accelerated recovery of new construction projects, some of quite considerable size. New capital gains tax on immovable property? The Market was surprised with the declarations of some political parties over the intention to create an addition to the capital gains tax (BE - Left Bloc) or a change to this, penalising short term capital gains while easing off on others (PSD). It should be recalled that capital gains tax has existed since the 1989 tax reform and applies both to those subject to Corporate Tax and Income Tax (IRS) and in the case of the latter, exemptions are only allowed in the case of reinvestment of capital gains in a personal and permanent residence. Proposals for alteration of the Rent Law After the President of the Republic vetoed the initial draft law to alter a tenant s preference right on the sale of the buildings that they occupy, it returned to the Assembly of the Republic and was again approved with alterations:. Limited to buildings rented for rental period.. Minimum changed to 2 years (currently 3 years and in the initial proposal it had no minimum time limit).. The possibility of the exercise of preference for buildings in full ownership was broadened, with the purchase value being calculated based on the per thousandth of the area occupied. Some of the other alterations proposed include:. the replacement of the Balcão Nacional de Arrendamento (National Rental Desk) by an Injunctions Service operating under the Directorate-General for the Administration of Justice which may be used by owners or tenants.. Alteration to the right of termination of contract by the Owner in the event of transfer or major works Under the proposal of the Socialist Party (PS), this would no longer be possible in the first case and much more difficult in the second.. Creation of rental insurance (already announced a number of times but never implemented). 03

5 Private universities with 20% growth in applications and registrations The number of applications to and registrations in private universities in Portugal grew between 4% and 20%, according to information published in the newspaper Jornal de Notícias. The private institutions contacted by the newspaper attribute this increase, above all, to three reasons: better living conditions in Portugal and in Europe, the impact of international students on the ratings of the Universities and compulsory education until the 12th school year. The new facilities of the NOVA-SBE, in Carcavelos, open this month which represents a new milestone in a market which in Portugal will have all the right conditions to continue to develop and which may represent an important source of wealth creation due to the possibility that much of the talent attracted and trained can develop new companies or form a market of recruitment for companies that decide to set up in Portugal. Reflecting directly and immediately on the property market, Uniplaces an online platform that operates in the real estate segment for student accommodation has already reported an increase in demand for and prices of accommodation in neighbouring areas, particularly in Paço de Arcos and in all the zones in Lisbon with direct Metro access to the Cais do Sodré station (green line), which has an almost direct connection to the Cascais train line. My Bubble is not the same as yours! Are prices being overvalued or not? Is there a property bubble right now? And should speculation be penalised? In relation to the first question, the answer raises another question which is "Overvaluation in relation to what?". If we take into account the growth in prices in the last 5 years, compared to the growth in average income in Portugal, there is no doubt that there is a very large difference in terms of prices, making it difficult to buy a house in the centre of Lisbon or Porto. Nevertheless, if we go back the same 5 years, who wanted to live in these places at the time? What houses were available for sale and with what characteristics? In fact, we cannot speak of prices in a market that has become more expensive, a completely new market. This market has an offer that did not exist before and a demand that is also new (and that to a large extent is external so is a true national export). As for classifying the rise in prices in our main cities as a "bubble", most of the studies indicate that this is characterised by a large-scale adhesion of investors, sophisticated or not, to a determined investment strategy. There is no doubt that highly facilitative monetary policies, which have been around now for quite some years, have driven up property prices. 04

6 This has been a global topic, not limited to our market. However, other factors that we consider to be more strategic have helped to drive up prices in most of the urban centres of cities are related with lifestyle how people like to live and work, facilitated by technological developments. In being "rediscovered" again as a global city, Lisbon is just another example of what has occurred in recent years in other cities. The phenomenon of the explosion of tourism and hundreds of small investors betting on local accommodation all over the city, namely in less central locations, may be far more ephemeral reasons. We think that with the growth in the offer of hotels and a reduction in the rate of increase of tourists, some investors without the necessary scale will return to the traditional rental market prices or resell their apartments, taking advantage of the increase in the market since this movement began. This will be a moderating factor of prices in the less central zones of cities in the time ahead. The topic of speculation will always be a favourite one for politicians and any others looking for attention. In fact both, those who "jump on the bandwagon" looking to jump off before it crashes as those who go against the same trend based on a conviction without factual evidence are speculators. Were they investors or speculators who bought buildings in the so-called "Baixa" of Lisbon when this was a dirty and not very popular zone of the city and nothing indicated that these same buildings would become attractive in the future? And should these now evident gains (and which have benefitted the whole City and probably the whole Country from the positive cycle it triggered) be taxed extraordinarily? And if the market had gone the other way should these speculators be " subsidised " instead of "taxed", rewarding their "good conduct" for losing money on their investments? Another financial institution / insurer opts to relocate its services and sell a building for residential conversion Following the previous edition of INFOSIIMGROUP, concerning the sale of buildings by Banks in the historic zone, now it was COSEC - Companhia de Seguros de Crédito that sold its installations on the corner of the Avenida da República and Campo Pequeno. The insurer moved to Avenida da Liberdade

7 New SIIMGROUP Properties on the Market Castilho 203 An exclusive property with 20 fractions of typologies T2 and T3, with 14 floors. The project has 2 swimming pools and a spa. Besides this, it has lifestyle management services, a 24h concierge service and parking. Silver Garden Silver Garden is a closed condominium with 8 fractions, situated in the riverside zone of Lisbon, in Braço de Prata. It has carefully chosen finishings, with swimming pool and recreation area. Saldanha Modern The old building in Avenida Casal Ribeiro, no. 26, will be turned into a luxury residential building with unique characteristics, maintaining its existing charm and contemporaneity. 22 apartments of typologies T1 to T3, T4 Duplex and T4 Penthouse with swimming pool. The apartments have areas between 68m2 and 419m2. The space also has a Shop with around 31.30m2. Citi Flat In Rua Goncalves Crespo, near Avenida Duque de Loulé, this complex stands out, without a doubt, for its location and modern concept of city life with an adaptation of the concept of co-living to the characteristics in the Portuguese market. The condominium lounge is totally equipped Sports Channel Sport TV. Electric chargers in the garage and a dedicated lift for bycicles are other amenities. Citi flat is geared towards a young self-employed professional with above target but with above average financial capacity. Citi Flat has 38 T1 and T0 fractions. At competitive prices in a central zone of the city, it also represents a good option for investment in the rental market. 06

8 Siimgroup was at the Portugues Real Estate Trade Fair (Salão Imobiliário de Portugal) - SIL18 The SIL is the main trade fair of the real estate sector in Portugal, representing a meeting place for investors, businessmen, technicians, players, public bodies and potential public purchasers. Around 350 companies represented a sector that has enjoyed quite sustained growth in Portugal. In the last edition, the SIL was attended by 63,000 visitors and over the 5 days it was held, it promoted business in the order of 100 million Euros. Until now the Siimgroup has never had such an imposing presence in this event. On the one hand, it was represented, as usual, by the RE/MAX Portugal brand, occupying 13 m2 in the brand s joint stand. The 5 stores that comprise the group were represented in this space: Lumiar, Capital, Miraflores, Countryside and Collection Chiado. The luxury segment was very well represented in the RE/MAX Collection stand and, also, in an exclusive stand of RE/MAX Collection Siimgroup which is establishing itself as a significant player and continues to expand its market share in the luxury real estate market in Portugal. 07

FCGM - Soc. de Med. Imob., S.A. AMI 5086 Realtors - Med. Imob., Lda. AMI www. s iimgroup. p t. infosiimgroup

FCGM - Soc. de Med. Imob., S.A. AMI 5086 Realtors - Med. Imob., Lda. AMI 5070 www. s iimgroup. p t OCTOBER2018 National Statistics Institute (INE) publishes first data on the Investment in Real Estate