Corporate Communication Division, JTB Corp. Travel Trends for Year-end/New-Year 2017/2018 (Dec. 23, 2017 Jan. 3, 2018)

Transcription

1 Corporate Communication Division, JTB Corp Higashi Shinagawa, Shinagawa-ku, Tokyo JAPAN. Tel: , Fax: December 5, 2017 (Translation of Japanese Release No. 177) Travel Trends for Year-end/New-Year 2017/2018 (Dec. 23, 2017 Jan. 3, 2018) Highest-ever number of overseas travelers at 704,000 Desire for travel remains high, with no. of domestic travelers also increasing Total no. of domestic travelers: million (+0.9% y-o-y) Total no. of overseas travelers: million (+2.8% y-o-y) 12/ /1 2 3 T W T F NH S M T W T F S S NH T W Survey period (departure basis) JTB Corp. has just published a survey of forecast travel trends involving at least one overnight stay for the year-end/new-year season from the national holiday (NH) on December 23, 2017 through to January 3, 2018 on a departure basis. The survey was based on a questionnaire survey about travel trends, industry and economic trends, the status of airline reservations and the status of bookings at JTB Group companies, from which estimates have been compiled. The results of this, the 49 th such survey since the first in 1969, are as follows. Table 1: Estimates for Year-end/New-Year 2017/2018 Travel Trends 2017/2018 season (estimated figures) Change year-on-year Increase/ decrease year-on-year 2016/2017 season (actual figures) Change year-on-year Total no. of travelers million +1.0% million million -2.0% Domestic million +0.9% million million -2.2% Overseas million +2.8% +19, million +9.5% Average expenditure on domestic travel Average expenditure on overseas travel 31,900 JPY +3.1% +1,000 JPY 30,900 JPY -9.6% 206,000 JPY -0.4% -1,000 JPY 207,000 JPY -4.6% Total expenditure 1,088.3 billion JPY +3.9% billion JPY 1,047.2 billion JPY -9.7% Domestic billion JPY +4.2% billion JPY billion JPY -11.6% Overseas billion JPY +2.3% +3.2 billion JPY billion JPY +4.5% Average length 3.6 days 0.0 days 0.0 days 3.6 days -0.2% Notes on the table: 1. Numbers of travelers are cumulative totals; average expenditures are per person. 2. Numbers of domestic travelers are those making overnight stays (only for tourism and trips to the family home). 3. Numbers of overseas travelers are for all those departing Japan (including business travel). 4. Domestic travel average expenditures comprise all costs incurred during travel, including transport, accommodation, meals and souvenirs. 5. Overseas travel average expenditures include fuel surcharges, accommodation, transport and meals at the destination. 6. Year-on-year changes are rounded to the nearest first decimal point

2 Socioeconomic Environment 1. Socio economic environment and underlying consumption trends At the current time the Japanese economy is continuing on a moderate recovery track. In the composite index (CI, 2010 = 100) of business conditions for September 2017 released by the Cabinet Office, the economy was judged to be improving for the eleventh consecutive month and it was also announced that economic recovery aspects have been in evidence for 58 consecutive months since December 2012, which exceeds the Izanagi economic boom period (Nov to Jul. 1970) (preliminary figures released by the Cabinet Office on November 8). In the April to September financial period, of 100 major listed companies approximately 80 percent reported increase sales and net profit over the same period of the previous year (survey by Nihon Keizai Shimbun newspaper, Nov. 17). In addition, over the course of the last month, the Nikkei Stock Average has remained above the 22,000 level, and in terms of exchange rates, the yen-dollar, yen-euro rates have remained relatively stable with only minor fluctuations since the beginning of the year (Fig. 1, Fig. 2). At the same time, with regard to the winter bonus outlook for 2017 announced by four private sector thinktanks it is anticipated that employees winter bonuses will increase, albeit slightly, for the first time in three years. However, in terms of consumer sentiment, there is still a sense that wage rises are incremental and little palpable feeling that the economy is recovering, and it is anticipated that households will continue to remain cautious about spending due to concerns about the future. Figure 1: Trends in the Nikkei Stock Average (November 2017) Figure 2: Trends in Foreign Exchange Rates (USD, EUR) (January-November 2017) -2-

3 2. Environment surrounding the year-end/new-year season and desire for travel among consumers In the standard case the year-end/new-year break would be a five-day period from December 30 (Sat) to January 3 (Wed), but many companies are concluding business for the year on December 28 (Thu) and a number of manufacturers are also remaining closed on January 4 (Thu) and 4 (Fri). Although there will be no three-day weekend around the Christmas period this year, there is a possibility that people could have a long break of more than 10 days during the year-end/new-year season. Looking at the Household Budget Survey conducted by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications for expenditure on accommodation and package holidays among households with two or more people, in August expenditure on accommodation was down 8.6% year-on-year, and package holiday expenditure was also down 5.7% year-on-year. In September the same indices were down 14.1% and 0.9% year-on-year, respectively. In October expenditure on accommodation increased 3.3% year-on-year, with expenditure on package holidays decreasing 27.7% compared to the previous year. These monthly figures suggest that people are still looking to economize on travel-related expenditure. However, reservations for railways and airlines were buoyant during the peak Golden Week and August Obon holiday periods this year. In addition, according to the results of the questionnaire implemented on year-end/new-year travel trends by JTB each year, the number of people indicating that they will travel or will maybe travel during the year-end/new Year period increased from the previous year. When asked about the difference between year-end/new-year season last year and this year, 4.2% of respondents indicated that they would be less likely to be able to take a holiday this year (-7.4% y-o-y), a smaller number than in the same survey in With regard to income, 12.0% of respondents indicated that income has increased since last year (+2.9 points) and 8.4% indicated that income has decreased since last year (-2.6 points). Furthermore, more respondents (10.2%) indicated that they intend to spend more money than last year on more luxury than those who responded that they will spend less money than last year on only the bare essentials (6.6%) (Table 2). However, when asked about motivation to spend on travel in the next year there was a three-point increase in the number of respondents indicating that they would like to spend less (Table 3). Although it appears that households are still looking to economize on travel, given that this year s year-end/new-year season falls in a way that will enable an extended holiday and also that bonuses are forecast to increase, it is projected that for this period only the economizing tendency will lessen somewhat as people seek to enjoy time off from work. Table 2: Differences Between Year-end/New-Year Season Last Year and This Year (multiple answers) % Y-o-y change Less likely to be able to take a holiday this year More likely to be able to take a longer holiday this year Will travel a longer distance than last year Will travel a shorter distance than last year Will travel for the same duration as last year Will travel for a longer duration than last year Will travel for a shorter duration than last year Income has decreased since last year Income has increased since last year Bonus likely to drop compared to last year Bonus likely to increase compared to last year Will spend less money than last year on only the bare essentials 6.6 New Will spend more money than last year on more luxury 10.2 New No particular differences

4 Would like to spend about the same Table 3: Changes in Motivation to Spend on Travel in the Next Year (responses based on the month of the survey) (figures in parentheses indicate year-on-year % change) (2017/2018) (2016/2017) (2015/2016) (2014/2015) Would like to spend more 13.2 ( 2.5) 15.7 (+3.9) 11.8 (+0.8) 11.0 (+1.2) More trips at lower unit cost 8.8 (+0.9) 7.9 ( 0.4) 8.3 (+0.2) 8.1 (±0.0) Fewer trips at higher unit cost 5.1 (+0.9) 4.2 (±0.0) 4.2 (+0.1) 4.1 ( 0.7) Same cost and frequency of trips 40.0 ( 0.3) 40.3 ( 0.7) 41.0 ( 0.2) 41.2 (+2.5) Would like to spend less 27.9 (+3.0) 24.9 ( 1.9) 26.8 ( 1.2) 28.0 ( 4.8) * As some respondents did not provide an answer, totals for single answer questions may not total 100%. Anticipated Trends in Year-end/New-Year Travel (Overseas Travel) Number of overseas travelers set to increase to million (+2.8% y-o-y). Average expenditure on overseas travel is projected to be JPY206,000 (-0.4% y-o-y), with peak dates for departure on December 29 (Fri) and 30 (Sat), with many people also departing Japan on January 2 (Tue) and 3 (Wed). The number of Japanese traveling overseas during 2017 has increased, with a cumulative total of 14,878,200 people making overseas trips between January and October, an annual increase of 4.9% (figures according to announcement by Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO) in November; Fig. 3), indicating relatively strong growth. Exchange rates have remained at a similar level to the beginning of On the other hand, fuel surcharges, which were zero yen at the beginning of the year, were reintroduced from February, but as this has not had an impact on the number of people traveling overseas since February, it is projected that the impact of surcharges will be similarly small on year-end/new-year season travel (Table 4, Table 5). The number of overseas travelers for this year s year-end/new Year season is projected to be the highest ever, exceeding 700,000 for the first time to reach 704,000 people. The projected peak dates for departure are December 29 (Fri) and 30 (Sat). However, many people are also looking to depart on January 2 (Tue) and 3 (Wed), when airfares and travel costs decrease. In terms of travel destination, with the exception of Guam/Saipan, for which airplane seat capacity is decreasing, all destinations are likely to see an increase or remain at almost the same level as the previous year. The number overseas year-end/new-year season travelers reached a new high in Since then, the weakening yen and changes in the international situation led to decreases in the number of people departing, but during the same time low-cost carrier (LCC) routes have increased and casual cruise holidays have gained popularity in Japan. This means that not only have options for foreign travelers to Japan increased, but so too are Japanese travelers finding that their overseas travel options have expanded. With regard to average expenditure on overseas travel, given the increase in discounted LCC airfares and the popularity of short-haul Asian destinations, coupled with the fact that package tour prices start to drop from around January 2 depending on the destination and many people are choosing to travel once prices have decreased, it is projected that expenditure will be down 0.4% year-on-year to JPY206,

5 Figure 3: Year-on-Year Comparisons of No. of Departing Japanese Overseas Travelers Source: Compiled by JTB Tourism Research & Consulting Co., based on data issued by the Japan National Tourism Organization Table 4: Tokyo Foreign Exchange JPY Market/TTS rate, according to the Bank of Mitsubishi-Tokyo UFJ as of November 25 Each Year (Unit: JPY) 100 KRW 1 HKD 1 TWD 1 CNY 1 USD 1 EUR (Tue) Nov. 25, (Wed) Nov. 25, (Thu) Nov. 25, (Fri) Nov. 25, Table 5: Fuel Surcharges (for JAL, return flights from Japan; unit: JPY) Ticket sale period Korea China, Hong Kong, Taiwan Guam Hawaii Thailand, Malaysia, North America, Europe, Oceania Singapore Dec Jan ,000 11,000 13,000 27,000 21,000 42,000 Dec Jan ,000 4,000 8,000 6,000 14,000 Dec Jan Dec Jan ,000 4,000 8,000 6,000 14,000 Looking at the booking status of JTB overseas package tours (LOOK JTB), for destinations like Hawaii and Singapore, in addition to departures at the end of the year, many people are selecting a departure date on or around January 3 (Wed), when prices fall. Travel to Europe is recovering and Spain is a popular destination, given that direct flights to Spain started last year. Bookings to Australia are also doing well, given that in September JAL launched a new Narita-Melbourne route, and in December Qantas increased flights on its Kansai-Sydney route. -5-

6 (Domestic Travel) Number of domestic travelers set to increase to million (+0.9% y-o-y). Average expenditure on domestic travel is projected to be JPY31,900 (+3.1% y-o-y) with peak departure dates of December 30 (Sat) and also January 1 (NH). According to questionnaire results, fewer people than last year will be embarking on one-night/two-day itineraries and more people are choosing to travel for two-nights/three-days or three-nights/four-days, indicating that people are seeking to take a longer holiday than last year (Table 12). With regard to means of accommodation, many respondents indicated that they are planning to stay in husband or wife s family home, suggesting that many people will be returning home for the year-end/new-year season. At the same time, however, those indicating that they would be staying in a hotel (28.5%, up 4.2 points) or ryokan (15.2%, up 1.0 point) have also increased, from which it can be expected that people are planning to travel to places other than their family home this year (Table 7). With regard to means of transportation, although gasoline prices have been on an upward trajectory, then was a 2.1-point increase year-on-year in respondents indicating that they would use a car (69.0%), with 3.2% responding that they plan to use long-distance buses (down 4.9 points y-o-y), and 1.3% responding that they will use LCC (down 0.1 points y-o-y). Travel by railway is also popular, with 16.5% of respondents indicating an intention to use JR Shinkansen (up 2.3 points y-o-y), and 12.0% planning to use JR or private railway lines (up 3.2 points y-o-y) (Table 8). In terms of destination there is an increase in people who plan to travel to the Tohoku region (Table 10). Looking at the status of accommodation bookings received by JTB, secluded mountain hot spring resorts and regions with winter outdoor activities such as snow shoe tours are popular, which suggests that the appeal of winter in the Tohoku region is spreading. Looking at the responses to the question on Ideas and Feelings Concerning Domestic Travel it can also be seen that more people have responded that there has been an increase in the number of popular accommodations I would like to stay at and an increase in tourist trains I would like to ride (Fig. 5). In recent years there has been an upsurge in diverse accommodation facilities, such as those based in old traditional homes or historic buildings, or luxury capsule hotels, and the number of special sightseeing tourist trains continues to increase. This diversification of choice is thought to be one factor behind the vitalization of demand for travel. Given that more people are likely to travel to their family home, or take a slightly longer holiday than normal this year-end/new-year season, it is projected that the number of domestic travelers will reach million (+0.9% y-o-y) and average expenditure will be JPY31,900 (+3.1% y-o-y). Figure 4: Trends in Retail Price of Regular Gasoline Source: Compiled by JTB Tourism Research & Consulting Co., based on data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry s Petroleum Products Price Survey. -6-

7 Figure 5: Ideas and Feelings Concerning Domestic Travel (multiple answers) Survey Methodology Survey locations: 200 locations throughout Japan; stratified comparative distribution Survey period: November 2 14, 2017 Respondents: Males and females between the ages of 15 and 79 Sample size: 1,200 individuals (six at each of the 200 locations) Content: Travel plans involving at least one night away from home departing between December 23, 2016 and January 3, Method: Individual surveys conducted by specialist staff using a questionnaire (100% response) on personal visits. Contact for Press Inquiries: Corporate Communication Division, JTB Corp., Tel:

8 Table 6: Estimates of Overseas Travelers at the Year-end/New-Year Season (December 23, 2017 through January 3, 2018) (Unit: 000s) Overall Total 2017/2018 Y-o-y change 2016/2017 Y-o-y change % % Asian Total % % Korea % % China % % Hong Kong % % Taiwan % % Thailand % % Singapore % % Indonesia 14 ±0.0% % Malaysia 14 ±0.0% % Others % % North American Total % % US Mainland % % Canada 5 ±0.0% % Hawaii Guam / Saipan % % % 32 ±0.0% European Total % % Oceanian Total % % Australia % % New Zealand 4 ±0.0% % S. Pacific Islands 8 ±0.0% % Others (Middle East, Africa, Latin America, etc.) % % -8-

9 Results of the Survey (Tables 7 to 14) Table 7: Means of Accommodation (single answers, excluding overseas travel) Table 8: Means of Transportation (multiple answers, excluding overseas travel % Y-o-y change % Y-o-y change Ryokan, hotel, minshuku, pension Car Hotel JR Shinkansen Ryokan JR / private railway lines Minshuku, pension, publicly-run facility, etc Airplane Family home Standard airlines Husband or wife s family home Low-cost carriers (LCC Live away due to work and returning home for New Year Long-distance bus Single and returning to parental home Charter bus Friend or acquaintance s home Ferry / ship Other Table 9: Travel Companions (single answers, excluding overseas travel) Table 10: Travel Destination (single answers, excluding overseas travel) % Y-o-y change % Y-o-y change Family Hokkaido Children (through junior high school) Tohoku Married couple only Kanto Others (mother & daughter, three generations, etc.) Koshinetsu Family, friends and acquaintances Tokai Friends and acquaintances Hokuriku Group (fellow workers, etc.) Kinki Alone Chugoku Shikoku Kyushu Okinawa Table 11: Reasons for Travel (multiple answers) Table 12: Length of Trip (single answers, excluding overseas travel) % Y-o-y change % Y-o-y change Because I do every year days 1 night To spend time at the family home days 2 night To spend time with family and friends days 3 nights To relax at a resort or hot springs, etc days 4 nights To enjoy nature and scenery days 5 nights It s the only time we can travel together days 6 nights To eat good food days 7 nights To enjoy the New Year mood nights or more It s no fun just staying at home Have fun at a theme park, etc

10 Table 13: Day of Departure (on furthest trip) (single answers, excluding overseas travel) % Y-o-y change 12/22 (Thu) or earlier /23 (NH) /24 (Sat) /25 (Sun) /26 (Mon) /27 (Tue) /28 (Wed) /29 (Thu) /30 (Fri) /31 (Sat) / 1 (NH) / 2 (NH) / 3 (Tue) Table 14: Reasons for Not Traveling (multiple answers) % Y-o-y change Prefer to relax with the family It s too crowded Travel is expensive Can t take time off work, etc Our relatives live close by Don't particularly want to Domestic situation prevents leaving home Family budget limitations Companions holiday dates, etc. clashed I have other things to do than travel On health grounds Family budget is tighter than last year Concerns over future livelihood Lower bonus The dates don't fall very well this year Personally affected or family affected by earthquake Note: In the above Tables 7 to 14, the lack of replies from some respondents or rounding down to the nearest decimal means that the total may not add up to 100%, even in the case of single response questions

11 Table 13: Trends in Published Numbers for Year-End/New-Year Travel (Dec. 23-Jan. 3 period) *First survey was conducted in Average expenditure (per Total Travelers (Ten thousand) Duration person, JPY) expenditure Total Domestic Overseas Domestic Overseas (100 million JPY) (Days) % of previous year % of previous year % of previous year % of previous year % of previous year % of previous year Change from previous year 2000/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /2018 2, , , ,284 12, , , , ,927 12, , , , ,170 11, , , , ,940 11, , , , ,923 11, , , , ,449 11, , , , ,510 11, ±0.0 2, , , ,700 11, , , , ,400 11, , , , ,400 10, , , , ,100 10, , , , ,800 10, , , , ,000 10, , , ,000 11, ±0.0 3, , , ,000 11, ±0.0 3, , , ,000 11, ±0.0 2, , , ,000 10, , , , ,000 10, ±