NEVADA LINKING STUDY COPYRIGHT 2011 NORTHWEST EVALUATION ASSOCIATION
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1 NEVADA LINKING STUDY A Study of the Alignment of the NWEA Scale with Nevada s Criterion-Referenced Test (CRT) and High School Proficiency Exam (HSPE) August 2011 COPYRIGHT 2011 NORTHWEST EVALUATION ASSOCIATION All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without written permission from NWEA.
2 A STUDY OF THE ALIGNMENT OF THE NWEA SCALE WITH THE NEVADA S CERION REFERENCED TEST (CRT) AND HIGH SCHOOL PROFICIENCY EXAM (HSPE) AUGUST 2011 Recently, NWEA completed a project to connect the scale of Nevada s Criterion Referenced Test (CRT) and High School Proficiency Exam (HSPE) used for Nevada s mathematics and reading assessments with NWEA s scale. Information from the state assessments was used in a study to establish performancelevel scores on the scale that would indicate a good chance of success on these tests. To perform the analysis, we linked together state test and NWEA test results for a sample of 28,084 Nevada students from at least 129 schools who completed both exams in the spring of The Nevada state test is administered in the spring. For the spring season (labeled current season ), an Equipercentile method was used to estimate the score equivalent to each state performance level. For fall (labeled prior season ), we determined the percentage of the population within the selected study group that performed at each level on the state test and found the equivalent percentile ranges within the NWEA dataset to estimate the cut scores. For example, if 40% of the study group population in grade 3 mathematics performed below the proficient level on the state test, we would find the score that would be equivalent to the 40 th percentile for the study population (this would not be the same as the 40 th percentile in the NWEA norms). This score would be the estimated point on the NWEA scale that would be equivalent to the minimum score for proficiency on the state test. Documentation about this method can be found on our website. Table Sets 1 and 2 show the best estimate of the minimum equivalent to each state performance level for same season (spring) and prior season (fall) scores. These tables can be used to identify students who may need additional help to perform well on these tests. (The percentiles were constructed using the 2011 Norms.) Table Sets 3 and 4 show the estimated probability of a student receiving a proficient score on the state assessment, based on that student s score. These tables can be used to assist in identifying students who are not likely to pass these assessments and also for identifying target score objectives likely to correspond to successful or proficient performance on the state test. Table 5 shows the correlation coefficients between MAP and the state test in each grade. These statistics show the degree to which MAP and the state test are linearly related, with values at or near 1.0 suggesting a perfect linear relationship, and values near 0.0 indicating no linear relationship. Table 6 shows the percentages of students at each grade and within each subject whose status on the state test (i.e., whether or not the student met standards ) was accurately predicted by their MAP performance and using the estimated cut scores within the current study. This table can be used to understand the predictive validity of MAP with respect to the CRT/HSPE.
3 TABLE SET 1 MINIMUM ESTIMATED SAME SEASON (SPRING) CUT SCORES CORRESPONDING TO STATE PERFORMANCE LEVELS MATH Current Season Cut Scores and s for each State Performance Level Grade Developing/Emergent Approaching Meets Exceeds 2 < < < < < < < < READING Current Season Cut Scores and s for each State Performance Level Grade Developing/Emergent Approaching Meets Exceeds 2 < < < < < < < < LANGUAGE USAGE Current Season Cut Scores and s for each State Performance Level Grade Developing/Emergent Approaching Meets Exceeds 3 < < < < < <
4 * Note: the cut scores shown in this table are the minimum estimated scores. Meeting the minimum MAP cut score corresponds to a 50% probability of achieving that performance level. Use the probabilities in Table Set 3 to determine the appropriate target scores for a desired level of certainty. TABLE SET 2 MINIMUM ESTIMATED PRIOR SEASON (FALL) CUT SCORES CORRESPONDING TO STATE PERFORMANCE LEVELS GENERAL SCIENCE Current Season Cut Scores and s for each State Performance Level Grade Well Below Below Met Exceeds 8 < < SCIENCE Concepts & Processes Current Season Cut Scores and s for each State Performance Level Grade Well Below Below Met Exceeds 8 < < MATH Prior Season Cut Scores and s for each State Performance Level Grade Developing/Emergent Approaching Meets Exceeds 2 < < < < < < < <
5 READING Prior Season Cut Scores and s for each State Performance Level Grade Developing/Emergent Approaching Meets Exceeds 2 < < < < < < < < LANGUAGE USAGE Prior Season Cut Scores and s for each State Performance Level Grade Developing/Emergent Approaching Meets Exceeds 3 < < < < < < GENERAL SCIENCE Prior Season Cut Scores and s for each State Performance Level Grade Well Below Below Met Exceeds 8 < < SCIENCE Concepts & Processes Prior Season Cut Scores and s for each State Performance Level Grade Well Below Below Met Exceeds 8 < < * Note: the cut scores shown in this table are the minimum estimated scores. Meeting the minimum MAP cut score corresponds to a 50% probability of achieving that performance level. Use the probabilities in Table Set 4 to determine the appropriate target scores for a desired level of certainty.
6 TABLE SET 3 ESTIMATED PROBABILITY OF SCORING AS PROFICIENT OR HIGHER ON THE STATE TEST IN SAME SEASON (SPRING), BY STUDENT GRADE AND SCORE RANGE ON MAP ASSESSMENT MATH Current Season Range % 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 125 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 130 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 135 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 140 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 145 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 150 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 155 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 160 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 165 4% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 170 6% 3% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% % 5% 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% % 8% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% % 13% 6% 4% 3% 1% 1% % 20% 10% 7% 5% 2% 1% % 29% 15% 11% 8% 4% 2% % 40% 23% 17% 13% 6% 3% % 52% 33% 25% 20% 9% 4% % 65% 45% 35% 29% 14% 7% % 75% 57% 48% 40% 21% 11% % 83% 69% 60% 52% 31% 17% % 89% 79% 71% 65% 43% 25% % 93% 86% 80% 75% 55% 35% % 96% 91% 87% 83% 67% 48% % 97% 94% 92% 89% 77% 60% % 98% 96% 95% 93% 85% 71% % 99% 98% 97% 96% 90% 80% % 99% 99% 98% 97% 94% 87% % 100% 99% 99% 98% 96% 92% % 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% 95% % 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 97% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 98% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% *Note: This table provides the estimated probability of passing the state test based on a MAP test score taken during that same (spring) season. Example: if a fifth grade student scored 200 on a MAP test taken during the spring season, the estimated probability of passing the state test is 23%.
7 READING Current Season Range % 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 125 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 130 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 135 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 140 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 145 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 150 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 155 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 160 3% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 165 4% 3% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 170 7% 5% 2% 2% 1% 0% 1% % 8% 4% 3% 1% 1% 1% % 12% 6% 4% 2% 1% 1% % 18% 9% 7% 4% 2% 2% % 27% 14% 11% 6% 4% 4% % 38% 21% 17% 10% 6% 6% % 50% 31% 25% 15% 9% 10% % 62% 43% 35% 23% 14% 15% % 73% 55% 48% 33% 21% 23% % 82% 67% 60% 45% 31% 33% % 88% 77% 71% 57% 43% 45% % 92% 85% 80% 69% 55% 57% % 95% 90% 87% 79% 67% 69% % 97% 94% 92% 86% 77% 79% % 98% 96% 95% 91% 85% 86% % 99% 98% 97% 94% 90% 91% % 99% 99% 98% 96% 94% 94% % 100% 99% 99% 98% 96% 96% % 100% 99% 99% 99% 98% 98% % 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Note: This table provides the estimated probability of passing the state test based on a MAP test score taken during that same (spring) season. Example: if a fifth grade student scored 200 on a MAP test taken during the spring season, the estimated probability of passing the state test is 31%.
8 Language Usage Current Season Range % 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 125 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 130 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 135 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 140 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 145 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 150 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 155 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 160 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 165 4% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 170 6% 4% 2% 1% 1% 0% 175 9% 6% 3% 2% 1% 1% % 10% 5% 4% 2% 1% % 15% 8% 6% 4% 2% % 23% 13% 10% 6% 3% % 33% 20% 15% 9% 5% % 45% 29% 23% 14% 8% % 57% 40% 33% 21% 12% % 69% 52% 45% 31% 18% % 79% 65% 57% 43% 27% % 86% 75% 69% 55% 38% % 91% 83% 79% 67% 50% % 94% 89% 86% 77% 62% % 96% 93% 91% 85% 73% % 98% 96% 94% 90% 82% % 99% 97% 96% 94% 88% % 99% 98% 98% 96% 92% % 100% 99% 99% 98% 95% % 100% 99% 99% 99% 97% % 100% 100% 100% 99% 98% % 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Note: This table provides the estimated probability of passing the state test based on a MAP test score taken during that same (spring) season. Example: if a fifth grade student scored 200 on a MAP test taken during the spring season, the estimated probability of passing the state test is 29%.
9 Science Current Season General Science Concepts&Processes Range % 0% 0% 0% 125 0% 0% 0% 0% 130 0% 0% 0% 0% 135 0% 0% 0% 0% 140 0% 0% 0% 0% 145 0% 0% 0% 0% 150 0% 0% 0% 0% 155 0% 0% 0% 0% 160 0% 0% 1% 0% 165 1% 1% 1% 1% 170 1% 1% 2% 1% 175 2% 2% 3% 2% 180 4% 3% 5% 4% 185 6% 4% 8% 6% 190 9% 7% 12% 9% % 11% 18% 14% % 17% 27% 21% % 25% 38% 31% % 35% 50% 43% % 48% 62% 55% % 60% 73% 67% % 71% 82% 77% % 80% 88% 85% % 87% 92% 90% % 92% 95% 94% % 95% 97% 96% % 97% 98% 98% % 98% 99% 99% % 99% 99% 99% % 99% 100% 99% % 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% Note: This table provides the estimated probability of passing the state test based on a MAP test score taken during that same (spring) season. Example: if a tenth grade student scored 200 on a MAP test taken during the spring season, the estimated probability of passing the state test is 17%.
10 TABLE SET 4 ESTIMATED PROBABILITY OF SCORING AS PROFICIENT OR HIGHER ON THE STATE TEST IN PRIOR SEASON (FALL), BY STUDENT GRADE AND SCORE RANGE ON MAP MATH Prior Season Range % 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 125 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 130 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 135 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 140 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 145 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 150 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 155 5% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 160 8% 3% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% % 5% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% % 8% 3% 2% 1% 0% 0% % 12% 5% 3% 2% 1% 0% % 18% 8% 5% 3% 1% 0% % 27% 13% 8% 5% 2% 1% % 38% 20% 12% 8% 3% 1% % 50% 29% 18% 13% 5% 2% % 62% 40% 27% 20% 8% 3% % 73% 52% 38% 29% 13% 5% % 82% 65% 50% 40% 20% 8% % 88% 75% 62% 52% 29% 13% % 92% 83% 73% 65% 40% 20% % 95% 89% 82% 75% 52% 29% % 97% 93% 88% 83% 65% 40% % 98% 96% 92% 89% 75% 52% % 99% 97% 95% 93% 83% 65% % 99% 98% 97% 96% 89% 75% % 100% 99% 98% 97% 93% 83% % 100% 99% 99% 98% 96% 89% % 100% 100% 99% 99% 97% 93% % 100% 100% 100% 99% 98% 96% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 97% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 98% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% * Note: This table provides the estimated probability of passing the state test based on a MAP test score taken during that prior (fall) season. Example: if a fifth grade student scored 200 on a MAP test taken during the fall season, the estimated probability of passing the state test is 40%.
11 READING Prior Season Range % 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 125 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 130 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 135 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 140 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 145 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 150 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 155 4% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 160 7% 4% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% % 6% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% % 9% 4% 2% 1% 1% 1% % 14% 6% 4% 2% 1% 1% % 21% 9% 6% 3% 2% 2% % 31% 14% 10% 5% 3% 3% % 43% 21% 15% 8% 5% 4% % 55% 31% 23% 13% 8% 7% % 67% 43% 33% 20% 12% 11% % 77% 55% 45% 29% 18% 17% % 85% 67% 57% 40% 27% 25% % 90% 77% 69% 52% 38% 35% % 94% 85% 79% 65% 50% 48% % 96% 90% 86% 75% 62% 60% % 98% 94% 91% 83% 73% 71% % 99% 96% 94% 89% 82% 80% % 99% 98% 96% 93% 88% 87% % 99% 99% 98% 96% 92% 92% % 100% 99% 99% 97% 95% 95% % 100% 99% 99% 98% 97% 97% % 100% 100% 100% 99% 98% 98% % 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Note: This table provides the estimated probability of passing the state test based on a MAP test score taken during that prior (fall) season. Example: if a fifth grade student scored 200 on a MAP test taken during the fall season, the estimated probability of passing the state test is 43%.
12 Language Usage Prior Season Range % 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 125 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 130 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 135 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 140 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 145 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 150 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 155 4% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 160 6% 3% 1% 1% 0% 0% 165 9% 5% 2% 1% 1% 0% % 8% 3% 2% 1% 1% % 12% 5% 4% 2% 1% % 18% 8% 6% 3% 1% % 27% 13% 9% 5% 2% % 38% 20% 14% 8% 4% % 50% 29% 21% 12% 6% % 62% 40% 31% 18% 10% % 73% 52% 43% 27% 15% % 82% 65% 55% 38% 23% % 88% 75% 67% 50% 33% % 92% 83% 77% 62% 45% % 95% 89% 85% 73% 57% % 97% 93% 90% 82% 69% % 98% 96% 94% 88% 79% % 99% 97% 96% 92% 86% % 99% 98% 98% 95% 91% % 100% 99% 99% 97% 94% % 100% 99% 99% 98% 96% % 100% 100% 99% 99% 98% % 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Note: This table provides the estimated probability of passing the state test based on a MAP test score taken during that prior (fall) season. Example: if a fifth grade student scored 200 on a MAP test taken during the fall season, the estimated probability of passing the state test is 40%.
13 Science Prior Season General Science Concepts&Processes Range % 0% 0% 0% 125 0% 0% 0% 0% 130 0% 0% 0% 0% 135 0% 0% 0% 0% 140 0% 0% 0% 0% 145 0% 0% 0% 0% 150 0% 0% 0% 0% 155 0% 0% 0% 0% 160 1% 0% 1% 1% 165 1% 1% 1% 1% 170 2% 1% 2% 1% 175 3% 2% 4% 2% 180 5% 3% 6% 4% 185 8% 5% 9% 6% % 8% 14% 10% % 12% 21% 15% % 18% 31% 23% % 27% 43% 33% % 38% 55% 45% % 50% 67% 57% % 62% 77% 69% % 73% 85% 79% % 82% 90% 86% % 88% 94% 91% % 92% 96% 94% % 95% 98% 96% % 97% 99% 98% % 98% 99% 99% % 99% 99% 99% % 99% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% % 100% 100% 100% * Note: This table provides the estimated probability of passing the state test based on a MAP test score taken during the prior (fall) season. Example: if a tenth grade student scored 200 on a MAP test taken during the fall season, the estimated probability of passing the state test is 18%.
14 TABLE 5 CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS BETWEEN MAP AND STATE TEST FOR EACH GRADE AND TEST SUBJECT Grade Math Correlation Pearson's r Reading Correlation Pearson's r Language Usage Correlation Pearson's r General Science Correlation Pearson's r Concepts&Process es Correlation Pearson's r * Note: Correlations range from 0 (indicating no correlation between the state test score and the NWEA test score) to 1 (indicating complete correlation between the state test score and the NWEA test score).
15 TABLE 6 PERCENTAGE OF STUDENTS WHOSE PASS STATUS WAS ACCURATELY PREDICTED BY THEIR MAP PERFORMANCE USING REPORTED CUT SCORES Grade Sample Size MAP Accurately Predicted State Performance MAP Underestimated State Performance MAP Overestimated State Performance Mathematics % 7.4% 7.7% % 7.0% 8.5% % 6.8% 7.8% % 6.4% 6.2% % 7.2% 6.0% % 6.8% 6.9% % 8.5% 8.0% Reading % 8.0% 8.0% % 6.2% 7.6% % 9.0% 8.1% % 7.4% 8.8% % 8.8% 9.8% % 9.5% 9.5% % 11.0% 11.0% Language Usage % 8.7% 8.0% % 7.1% 7.2% % 8.7% 9.1% % 8.0% 9.1% % 8.1% 9.2% % 10.0% 9.5% General Science % 9.8% 10.4% % 9.0% 8.6% Concepts & Processes % 10.0% 11.7% % 9.7% 10.5% * Note: The third column of this table shows the percentage of students whose Pass/Not Pass status was predicted accurately when their state test score was linked to their MAP score based on this linking study. The fourth column shows the percentage of students whose MAP score predicted they would not pass the state benchmark but they did pass. The last column shows the percentage of students whose MAP score predicted they would pass the state benchmark but they did not pass. Due to rounding, percentages may not add to 100%.
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